See PEP*'s official
investor relations' site
here.
See the Yahoo!
Finance profile for
PEP*
here.
See Opening Segment 2,
below...
After this segment, you
can see Jim's Lightning
Round picks
here...
Jim:
This is head-to-head week!
I'm stacking up the
biggest brand name stocks
against their iconic
competitors, in order to
teach you the single most
important skill to being a
great investor... how to
compare stocks so you know
which one is cheaper...
which one is the better
value... which one we
believe will go up the
most... the better buy...
This is a gigantic
project... the ultimate
Mad Money educational
guide to evaluating
stocks...
Now we're going to use
that same 10-point scale
that I introduced
yesterday to judge a real
clash of the stock
titans...
Coca-Cola (KO)
versus
Pepsico, Inc. (PEP)...
What's cheaper?... What's
the better buy?...
And don't think KO,
because it's a $54 stock
and PEP* is a $70 stock...
The share price means
nothing...
. . . .
.
First on the Mad Money
checklist... it has to be
the sector...
Since a stock's sector
accounts for 50% of its
performance, the comany's
sector is worth up to 5
out of 10 points on the
Mad Money stock scale...
So where do KO - a
beverage company... and
PEP* - a food and beverage
company... stack up based
on their sector?
In an environment where
inflation has peaked, we
just got I believe the
last bad consumer price
index number, and the last
bad producer number, but
the economy still has not
at all rebounded. The
playbook that all the
managers use says buy
safety... buy something
defensive... which is why
PEP* and KO bucked today's
awful downturn...
Normally, you'd give food
and beverage companies a 5
for sector in this kind of
environment - remember, 5
being the best - because,
when people think defense,
they think KO and PEP*...
but, remarkably, KO has
actually seen some
economic pressure... You
have to understand that
that's close to unheard
of... but they talked
about it on their
(earnings' conference)
call... particularly on
convenience store
purchases...
So, instead of 5, I'm
giving KO 4 points... this
is the sector weighting...
and PEP*?... 4.5...
because it was KO and not
PEP* that said the economy
was causing some pain...
. . . .
.
After you look at the
sector, you can compare
the stocks head-to-head...
and there I say the first
and most important thing
that managers care about
and you should care
about... is growth...
On the growth front, KO
seems tapped out...
Other than its bolt-on
acquistion of Vitamin
Water, which looks to be a
brilliant, brilliant
move... KO is already
though in a lot of
countries, getting 81% of
its operating profit from
overseas, and needs to
reignite growth to make
money... historically, a
very hard thing to do...
Carbonated drinks in the
U.S. are a flat
category... no pun
intended... and, in fact,
sparkling beverage sales
were down 4% for KO last
quarter... plus PEP* and
KO are locked in an
endless price war...
Doesn't it seem like we've
been paying the same price
for these drinks for
years?...
PEP*, which gets only 29%
of its operating profit
from outside the western
hemisphere, has a lot more
room for international
growth... much more than
KO... We give PEP* 1 point
for growth prospects...
and KO earns no points...
bringing the score to...
PEP*, 5.5... KO, 4...
. . . .
.
Next strategy...
Controlling your own
destiny!... Here PEP* has
clearly figured out that
the soft drink category
can be a long-term
loser!... So PEP* is now a
snack food company with a
soda arm... while KO is
soda...
Witness the battle
mentioned in the very
front section of The Wall
Street Journal today,
about KO's massive
olympian spending to blunt
PEP*... to which I say,
come on man... they're
both commodities!...
KO has innovated though,
coming up with Coke Zero,
trying to take the
inevitable shelf space
from PEP*... hey, that's
brilliant right?... But
PEP* says, wait a second,
the soda aisle is the
bloody war between the
states... How much better
is it to be the
Spanish-American war...
which is what the snack
aisle feels like...
PEP*'s acquisition of
Quaker Oats, which brought
both Gatorade - a huge
franchise - and snacks, to
augment PEP*'s Frito-Lay
division, sure beats KO
buying 50 cent out of the
Vitamin Water
acquisition...
PEP* doesn't want to waste
time fighting for the soda
aisle... Instead, we're
getting real innovation
from them in the snack
aisle, where they're
taking shelf space from
Rold Gold, Herrs, and
Utz... a whole lot easier
than taking it from KO...
Another point for PEP* and
I'm willing to give KO
half a point for the
winning ways of Coke
Zero... even though
they're fighting the wrong
war.
PEP*'s lead now widens to
6.5 to 4.5...
. . . .
.
You have to look at
management next...
To me, this is a big
X-factor... harder to
value this than some of
the other things...
At PEP*, you have Indra
Nooyi, cementing her
leadership... she's been
there for a little bit
now...
At KO, Neville Isdale, a
Cramer favorite, has been
replaced with first-year
CEO, Muhtar Kent... We
don't like first-year
CEOs, because they tend to
either mess up or
obliterate earnings... but
the
Buffett
factor... the fact that
Berkshire Hathaway Inc. (BRK-A)
owns 200 million shares of
KO gives the stock a big
halo effect versus PEP*...
People love... they love
Buffett so much that they
forget about KO's meager
growth, so I'm giving a
half a point to each...
PEP* still leads 7 to 5...
. . . .
.
All right, now...
dividends...
KO is higher at 2.8%. PEP*
is a 2.4% yield... but
maybe that's because KO's
down a lot... I mean PEP*
has a better record of
dividend increases...
Let's give a point each
here...
Okay, 8 (for PEP*) and 6
(for KO)...
. . . .
.
Next, we look at raw
costs...
Six weeks ago, with grain
skyrocketing and gasoline
going to $5 smackers, it
was easy... KO, with costs
locked in, was best of
show... PEP* has more
exposure to trucks driving
Frito-Lay snacks to stores
everyday than KO does...
Remember, Fritos need to
be replaced constantly...
it's a great generator of
cash for supermarkets...
plus Frito-Lay has a lot
of expensive
ingredients...
But with gasoline and
grain prices falling, PEP*
is now the better play...
KO deserves a half point
for locking its prices in,
right?... They have very,
very good commodity
costs... PEP* also gets a
half point... let's call
it the "dumb luck
factor"...
8.5 to 6.5... PEP* is one
top...
. . . .
.
All right... let's call
it... let's call it right
here...
PEP* wins on points. It
also wins on valuation...
Both KO and PEP* trade at
about the same
price-to-earnings
multiple, versus next
year's earnings... even
though KO is growing at 9%
and PEP* at 11%...
I say game over!...
I believe PEP* deserves a
higher multiple and,
therefore, a higher price.
Here's the bottom line!..
. . . .
.
The Bottom Line!:
You want to be defensive right now?
Coca-Cola (KO)
and
Pepsico, Inc. (PEP)
are your archtypal defense stocks. Now
you know how they measure up, and PEP*
is the one.
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See ORLY's official
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ORLY
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After this segment, you
can see Jim's Lightning
Round picks
here...
. . . .
.
Jim:
We are about to accomplish
the impossible... We are
going to try to make money
in the auto sector...
Everyone's always talking
about how the automakers
are struggling... no
kidding... especially the
U.S. automakers... but
even best of breed TM is
only about 7 points above
its 52-week low of $82.
We hear how no one wants
to buy a car anymore, so
how would you like to know
how to try and make some
money off the plight of
the automakers?... And I
do not mean shorting
them... You can...
One of the reasons people
aren't buying new cars is
that their old cars are
more durable than ever...
so they're keeping them
longer. You throw in a
weak economy to make
people cost conscious, and
auto sales go out the
window...
But there is a group that
should benefit from people
owning older and older
vehicles... and that group
is... auto parts retailers
and mechanics...
Don't get me wrong... I
think the companies that
make auto parts and then
sell them to the
manufacturers are
completely and utterly
toxic... those are worse
than
Fannie Mae (FNM)
and
Freddie Mac (FRE)...
But the ones that make
auto parts for the after
market... the ones that
sell you replacement parts
for the car you already
own... after you got the
car... I say they are the
winners here, along with a
select group, the
mechanics, who make the
repairs...
. . . .
More comments will
continue here...
Note: We
now quickly post the
specific stock
recommendation, and Jim's
"Bottom Line" for each
segment... and then
follow-up with the
complete recap of his key
comments. Check back
today, to read
the recap of this
segment, in its entirety, along
with the complete Mad Money show
recommendations and
comments...
. . . .
.
The Bottom Line!:
People may not be buying new cars
like they used to, but their old cars
need replacement parts more than ever,
and the life of O'Reilly Automotive
Inc. (ORLY)
is the way to play it!
■
Stock Snapshots - Includes
all stocks mentioned above
■
Jim
Cramer's
rating on
this stock
STOCK
SYMBOL
Closing
price
that
day
Opening
price
next
day
Full Company
Name/Comments
(see comments above for
each)
Go to the LIGHTNING ROUND from
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Finance from
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Jim mentioned it is a stock
that he manages within
his
charitable trust portfolio.
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Thumbs up - indicates
he would buy the stock or,
at the very least, not sell
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think it is indicated by his
comments during the show.
Please read his comments to
decide for yourself.
Thumbs down -
indicates he has said not to
buy or to sell the stock,
based on his comments
We do our best to interpret
Jim's opinion on stocks, as
we think it is indicated by
his comments during the
show. Please read his
comments to decide for
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Back up the truck -
indicated by Jim, when he
says the stock is so good,
that he would do a
'mon-back' on the stock...
In other words, this is the
sound someone would say to a
truck driver, "Come on
back... " as he is "backing
up the truck" to load up on
his cargo. Translation
for buying stocks:
This recommendation by Jim
indicates that, after you do
your own
homework on the stock,
you should feel comfortable
loading up on it, as it is
in a good position to be
bought at this point.
Stumped. - Of the
2,000+ stocks that Jim
Cramer has in his head, for
which he has an informed
opinion, he sometimes comes
across a caller with a stock
he does not know well enough
to opine on... He then
indicates he is stumped and
will have to come back to
it, after he does some
homework of his own on
the stock. This
usually occurs during the
Lightning Round, when Jim
does not know in advance who
is calling, or what their
stock question is about.
Definitions of key phrases
used by Jim, known as
"Cramerisms":
Definition: 'Pull the
trigger' is Jim's phrase for making
the decision at that point to trade -
either to 'buy' or
to 'sell' (although he
usually uses the phrase for
buying), as if to say you
should feel comfortable
enough to make the final
decision without looking
back...
Definition: 'Ring
the Register' is Jim's phrase for
selling a stock, and making
it a final sale, that you
should not look back on.
Put it behind you.
Definition:'Let It Come In' indicates how you
may wait for it to pull back, or have the
stock price come down briefly, as your
chance (after letting it come in) to buy
the rest of your position (i.e., total
number of shares you own in that stock).
Definition:'backing it up'
or 'doing a 'mon-back' is Jim's
phrase for the metaphor of backing up a
truck to load up on a stock by buying
it. 'Mon-back is short for the
imaginary worker saying, 'Come on
back...' as the truck is backing up to
receive its load... Notice that we use
the little truck icon to indicate where
Jim has mentioned this.
Translation for buying
stocks: This
recommendation by Jim
indicates that, after you do
your own
homework on the stock,
you should feel comfortable
loading up on it, as it is
in a good position to be
bought at this point.
See more
"Cramerisms" & other
financial phrases
here >>
Helpful Websites:
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known to be in Jim Cramer's
Charitable Trust at:
Stock Homework 101:
This is an excellent
upcoming site that provides
resources and links to help
you do that homework that
Jim Cramer recommends after
hearing his suggestions...
FastMoneyRecap:
This site will be a quick
summary of recommendations
made by the great Fast Money
TV show crew, that will
offer you a unique service,
to compare their picks to
Jim Cramer's past comments
about those stocks.