See Jim's
1:30pm valuable
Comments from
today's
"At The Half"
1:30pm show
here...
Thursday, 08/21/08
Posted 08/21/08, 08:49
am ET
(Scroll down to see Jim's
comments below)
Today's date:
Thursday, 08/21/08
Dow Jones:
11,430
+ 12
NASDAQ:
2,380
- 8
S&P 500:
1,277
+ 3
First Segment
Opening Segment 1
Title:
'Keeping
Pace'
. . . .
.
Featured Stock(s):
CSX Corp. (CSX)
See CSX's official
investor relations' site
here.
See the Yahoo!
Finance profile for
CSX
here.
or...
Heinz (HNZ)
See HNZ's official
investor relations' site
here.
See the Yahoo!
Finance profile for
HNZ
here.
See Opening Segment 2,
below...
After this segment, you
can see Jim's Lightning
Round picks
here...
Jim:
Do you want to go 60 miles
per hour comfortably?...
Or do you want to go 287
miles an hour and get
scared out of your
wits?...
Do you want to be able to
ignore a conference call
or two, and still be safe
in the notion that your
company's brand is
unassailable... or do you
want to have to pay
attention to minutia... to
things like demurage, like
car loads, like flooding,
like snow storms... how
about terminal dwell?...
Do you want to be firm in
the knowledge that there
will never be a Chinese
competitor... some East
Asian knockoff of your
company's products?...
Or do you want to pay
attention to every
percentage amount of
Chinese growth?... Every
dollar amount of coal, and
every pound of fertilizer
shipped... not to mention
whether Honda or GM are
moving some cars...
Welcome to the kind of
questions and constrasts
you have to deal with on
your own as an investor...
I'd love to come out here
every night and tell you
what to do, but you know
what?... You can't rely on
me, or anyone else for
that matter, because we
can't tell you what your
own preferences are...
You have to know
yourself... I may not seem
like a very zen buddhist
guy but, when it comes to
picking stocks, that's a
rule you can't afford to
avoid...
Alright, so what brings us
all to this?...
Today, on Mad Money at the
Half... I spoke to two
excellent CEOs... who have
been delivering fantastic
results for two very
different companies... One
is
Heinz (HNZ),
which is up 60% over the
last five years... And the
other is the
CSX Corp. (CSX)...
the railroad that gained
287% in the same period!
Now there is no doubt in
my mind or yours... that
we would rather nail a
287% return than a 60%
return... but there's a
price to pay... the
wildness, the
volatility... we call it
by a Greek letter... the
beta... that causes us, at
times, to take huge
losses, in order to make
the big 287% gains... Of
course, those losses are
on paper, and not
realized...
HNZ, at $51.99 stock,
trades in increments of
pennies, okay...
Now CSX trades at
$61.96...
That one trades in
increments of dollars...
Let me go into the
contrast a bit more
in-depth today...
HNZ reported a sweet,
terrific quarter this
morning, one that I
congratulated its CEO,
Bill Johnson, for
delivering...
The company had remarkable
sales growth... The top 15
products grew at 17%...
13% of their growth was
organic... Hey, get
this... Ore Ida fries were
up 30% year-over-year!...
Man! Are we getting
fat!...
They're innovating and
they're selling and
they're breaking into
whole new markets like
Latin America, China,
India and Russia...
So what did HNZ stock do
after that blowout
number?... It was up,
uh... 28 cents... after
all that hard work and
great numbers... up 28
cents.
Compare that today with
CSX, which didn't announce
a thing... didn't do a
thing... and, for all I
know, the trains didn't
even run on time today...
And what did that stock
do?...
It jumped $1.57...
2.6%!...
I mean, come on!... They
just went around and did
nothing and they made much
more money than HNZ did...
because commodities were
up... they ship
commodities... perhaps it
was the dollar... It was
weaker and they ship
overseas... Who the heck
knows! We don't even
know...
Now, another day, that
same move up could just as
easily have been a decline
of the same size... and
we'd be similarly
clueless... I could make
up a reason... I often
feel like that people make
up reasons... No, it was
just up!...
. . . .
.
So, before you buy a
stock, you need to ask
yourself, what can you
handle?... You need to
know, do you want to own a
company with a stock,
where you'll never have to
worry about waking up and
going to the diner...
Do you want a stock that,
when it doesn't do well,
doesn't go down much?...
Or when it does do well,
like it did this morning,
tends to move up slowly
over time?... Or do you
want to take a ride on a
real train?... Do you want
to take a ride on the CSX
express! Strap yourself in
and get some great gains
at the risk of some
hideous...
I don't have the answer
for you, whether you like
CSX like the trainwreck,
or whether you like HNZ,
and you just want to have
something pretty good on
your fries... I don't,
because there's something
to be said for owning the
stocks of iconic brands
that will do well over
time... and you won't have
to worry about the Baltic
Freight Index, or the
price of DAP - that's a
fertilizer ingredient - or
whether Honda's shipping a
lot of cars or not... or
lumber...
You still have to do a
little
homework for HNZ, but the homework
is, well... let's just say
it's much less demanding
than CSX...
With CSX, all those great
percentage points you got,
you had to worry about a
Chinese slowdown... you
had to worry about housing
starts... you had to worry
about storms, which cost
them a couple of pennies
sometimes... you have to
worry about labor
problems... Or maybe you
just want a product that
they're just discovering
in China, like HNZ...
You see the bottom line is
this...
. . . .
.
The Bottom Line!:
The dichotomy of Sleeping Beauty
versus Mr. Toad's Wild Ride is the
fulcrum of money management.
Unlike almost all the other views I
have, the answer to this one is
simple... You make the call.
Whether it's
CSX Corp. (CSX)
or
Heinz (HNZ),
it's up to you... based on how much
effort you'll put out.
■
Stock Snapshots - Includes
all stocks mentioned above
■
Jim
Cramer's
rating on
this stock
STOCK
SYMBOL
Closing
price
that
day
Opening
price
next
day
Full Company
Name/Comments
(see comments above for
each)
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Second
Segment
Opening Segment 2
Title:
'Cash Cabinet'
Head-to-head
Comparison: Procter & Gamble (PG*)
vs. Unilever plc (UL)
. . . .
.
Featured Stock(s):
Procter & Gamble (PG*)
See PG*'s official
investor relations' site
here.
See the Yahoo!
Finance profile for
PG*
here.
or...
Unilever plc (UL)
See UL's official
investor relations' site
here.
See the Yahoo!
Finance profile for
UL
here.
After this segment, you
can see Jim's Lightning
Round picks
here...
. . . .
.
Jim:
All week, we've been
telling you how the pros
do it, using a 10-point
scale... A brand-new
way... a yardstick to
judge companies that
compete with each other...
McDonald's versus Burger
King... Coach versus
Tiffany... Coke versus
Pepsi... Pepsi is still
the one, althought the
stock was down today... I
thought that was a
mistake. Cadbury versus
Hershey...
And then comparing the
results to the stock price
to see which is the better
buy...
So far, the better company
has been the stock to
own...
The two I'm going to look
at today... well, let's
just say there's a
divergence. This is
Procter & Gamble (PG*)
and
Unilever plc (UL)...
and this comparison shows
that there are times when
the inferior company may
turn out to be the
superior stock... Did you
hear that? In other words,
it's not always the best
company that has the best
stock...
Sometimes the stock's so
cheap, that even an
inferior company might be
right...
I went into this
comparison of PG* and UL
with a huge bias in favor
of PG*... I mean,
look, I own it for
my charitable trust...
PG* is the better company.
But, because of the stock
price, and UL's stock
price... PG*'s had a
big run, while UL has been
crushed... PG* may not be
the best stock...
. . . .
.
. . . .
.
The Bottom Line!:
When the price is right, an inferior
company like
Unilever plc (UL)
can have a better stock than a superior
company like
Procter & Gamble (PG*).
Of course, this could all change,
depending upon where the prices go.
But you need to be aware that not always
do you buy the absolute best company
when the not-so-great company's stock
goes down so much that you have to pick
some up.
■
Stock Snapshots - Includes
all stocks mentioned above
■
Jim
Cramer's
rating on
this stock
STOCK
SYMBOL
Closing
price
that
day
Opening
price
next
day
Full Company
Name/Comments
(see comments above for
each)
Go to the LIGHTNING ROUND from
tonight's show
here >>
See current quotes on Yahoo!
Finance from
tonight's show stocks
here >>
Symbol keys:
A Charitable Trust stock.
- An asterisk next to a
stock symbol indicates that
Jim mentioned it is a stock
that he manages within
his
charitable trust portfolio.
You can see the complete
portfolio
of stocks
here >>
Thumbs up - indicates
he would buy the stock or,
at the very least, not sell
the stock. We do our
best to interpret Jim's
opinion on stocks, as we
think it is indicated by his
comments during the show.
Please read his comments to
decide for yourself.
Thumbs down -
indicates he has said not to
buy or to sell the stock,
based on his comments
We do our best to interpret
Jim's opinion on stocks, as
we think it is indicated by
his comments during the
show. Please read his
comments to decide for
yourself.
Back up the truck -
indicated by Jim, when he
says the stock is so good,
that he would do a
'mon-back' on the stock...
In other words, this is the
sound someone would say to a
truck driver, "Come on
back... " as he is "backing
up the truck" to load up on
his cargo. Translation
for buying stocks:
This recommendation by Jim
indicates that, after you do
your own
homework on the stock,
you should feel comfortable
loading up on it, as it is
in a good position to be
bought at this point.
Stumped. - Of the
2,000+ stocks that Jim
Cramer has in his head, for
which he has an informed
opinion, he sometimes comes
across a caller with a stock
he does not know well enough
to opine on... He then
indicates he is stumped and
will have to come back to
it, after he does some
homework of his own on
the stock. This
usually occurs during the
Lightning Round, when Jim
does not know in advance who
is calling, or what their
stock question is about.
Definitions of key phrases
used by Jim, known as
"Cramerisms":
Definition: 'Pull the
trigger' is Jim's phrase for making
the decision at that point to trade -
either to 'buy' or
to 'sell' (although he
usually uses the phrase for
buying), as if to say you
should feel comfortable
enough to make the final
decision without looking
back...
Definition: 'Ring
the Register' is Jim's phrase for
selling a stock, and making
it a final sale, that you
should not look back on.
Put it behind you.
Definition:'Let It Come In' indicates how you
may wait for it to pull back, or have the
stock price come down briefly, as your
chance (after letting it come in) to buy
the rest of your position (i.e., total
number of shares you own in that stock).
Definition:'backing it up'
or 'doing a 'mon-back' is Jim's
phrase for the metaphor of backing up a
truck to load up on a stock by buying
it. 'Mon-back is short for the
imaginary worker saying, 'Come on
back...' as the truck is backing up to
receive its load... Notice that we use
the little truck icon to indicate where
Jim has mentioned this.
Translation for buying
stocks: This
recommendation by Jim
indicates that, after you do
your own
homework on the stock,
you should feel comfortable
loading up on it, as it is
in a good position to be
bought at this point.
See more
"Cramerisms" & other
financial phrases
here >>
Helpful Websites:
See the stocks currently
known to be in Jim Cramer's
Charitable Trust at:
Stock Homework 101:
This is an excellent
upcoming site that provides
resources and links to help
you do that homework that
Jim Cramer recommends after
hearing his suggestions...
FastMoneyRecap:
This site will be a quick
summary of recommendations
made by the great Fast Money
TV show crew, that will
offer you a unique service,
to compare their picks to
Jim Cramer's past comments
about those stocks.