See Jim's
1:30pm valuable
Comments from
today's
"At The Half"
1:30pm show

here...
 
 
 

 

  Thursday, 08/21/08
Posted 08/21/08,  08:49 am ET

(Scroll down to see Jim's comments below)

 
 
Today's date:  Thursday, 08/21/08

  Dow Jones: 11,430   +  12
  NASDAQ:   2,380     -  8
  S&P 500:   1,277     + 3
 
 
 
 
 
First Segment
   
Opening Segment 1 Title: 'Keeping Pace'

.  .  .  .  .

Featured Stock(s):

CSX Corp. (CSX)
See CSX's official investor relations' site here.
See the Yahoo! Finance profile for CSX here.

or...

Heinz (HNZ)
See HNZ's official investor relations' site here.
See the Yahoo! Finance profile for HNZ here.

See Opening Segment 2, below...

 
After this segment, you can see Jim's Lightning Round picks here...


Jim:    Do you want to go 60 miles per hour comfortably?... Or do you want to go 287 miles an hour and get scared out of your wits?...

Do you want to be able to ignore a conference call or two, and still be safe in the notion that your company's brand is unassailable... or do you want to have to pay attention to minutia... to things like demurage, like car loads, like flooding, like snow storms... how about terminal dwell?...

Do you want to be firm in the knowledge that there will never be a Chinese competitor... some East Asian knockoff of your company's products?...

Or do you want to pay attention to every percentage amount of Chinese growth?... Every dollar amount of coal, and every pound of fertilizer shipped... not to mention whether Honda or GM are moving some cars...

Welcome to the kind of questions and constrasts you have to deal with on your own as an investor...

I'd love to come out here every night and tell you what to do, but you know what?... You can't rely on me, or anyone else for that matter, because we can't tell you what your own preferences are...

You have to know yourself... I may not seem like a very zen buddhist guy but, when it comes to picking stocks, that's a rule you can't afford to avoid...

Alright, so what brings us all to this?...

Today, on Mad Money at the Half... I spoke to two excellent CEOs... who have been delivering fantastic results for two very different companies... One is Heinz (HNZ), which is up 60% over the last five years... And the other is the CSX Corp. (CSX)... the railroad that gained 287% in the same period!

Now there is no doubt in my mind or yours... that we would rather nail a 287% return than a 60% return... but there's a price to pay... the wildness, the volatility... we call it by a Greek letter... the beta... that causes us, at times, to take huge losses, in order to make the big 287% gains... Of course, those losses are on paper, and not realized...

HNZ, at $51.99 stock, trades in increments of pennies, okay...

Now CSX trades at $61.96...

That one trades in increments of dollars...

Let me go into the contrast a bit more in-depth today...

HNZ reported a sweet, terrific quarter this morning, one that I congratulated its CEO, Bill Johnson, for delivering...

The company had remarkable sales growth... The top 15 products grew at 17%... 13% of their growth was organic... Hey, get this... Ore Ida fries were up 30% year-over-year!... Man! Are we getting fat!...

They're innovating and they're selling and they're breaking into whole new markets like Latin America, China, India and Russia...

So what did HNZ stock do after that blowout number?... It was up, uh... 28 cents... after all that hard work and great numbers... up 28 cents.

Compare that today with CSX, which didn't announce a thing... didn't do a thing... and, for all I know, the trains didn't even run on time today...

And what did that stock do?...

It jumped $1.57... 2.6%!...

I mean, come on!... They just went around and did nothing and they made much more money than HNZ did... because commodities were up... they ship commodities... perhaps it was the dollar... It was weaker and they ship overseas... Who the heck knows! We don't even know...

Now, another day, that same move up could just as easily have been a decline of the same size... and we'd be similarly clueless... I could make up a reason... I often feel like that people make up reasons... No, it was just up!...

.  .  .  .  .

So, before you buy a stock, you need to ask yourself, what can you handle?... You need to know, do you want to own a company with a stock, where you'll never have to worry about waking up and going to the diner...

Do you want a stock that, when it doesn't do well, doesn't go down much?... Or when it does do well, like it did this morning, tends to move up slowly over time?... Or do you want to take a ride on a real train?... Do you want to take a ride on the CSX express! Strap yourself in and get some great gains at the risk of some hideous...

I don't have the answer for you, whether you like CSX like the trainwreck, or whether you like HNZ, and you just want to have something pretty good on your fries... I don't, because there's something to be said for owning the stocks of iconic brands that will do well over time... and you won't have to worry about the Baltic Freight Index, or the price of DAP - that's a fertilizer ingredient - or whether Honda's shipping a lot of cars or not... or lumber...

You still have to do a little homework for HNZ, but the homework is, well... let's just say it's much less demanding than CSX...

With CSX, all those great percentage points you got, you had to worry about a Chinese slowdown... you had to worry about housing starts... you had to worry about storms, which cost them a couple of pennies sometimes... you have to worry about labor problems... Or maybe you just want a product that they're just discovering in China, like HNZ...

You see the bottom line is this... 

.  .  .  .  .

The Bottom Line!:     The dichotomy of Sleeping Beauty versus Mr. Toad's Wild Ride is the fulcrum of money management.  Unlike almost all the other views I have, the answer to this one is simple... You make the call.   Whether it's CSX Corp. (CSX) or Heinz (HNZ), it's up to you... based on how much effort you'll put out.

 

   
 

Stock Snapshots - Includes all stocks mentioned above

 

 

Jim
Cramer's
rating on
this stock

STOCK
SYMBOL

Closing
price
that
day

Opening
price
next
day

Full Company Name/Comments
(see comments above for each)


CSX

61.96

na

CSX Corp. (CSX)


HNZ

51.99

na

Heinz (HNZ)
 

 

 



See all of tonight's stocks' latest quotes on Yahoo! Finance



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Second Segment
 
Opening Segment 2 Title:

'Cash Cabinet'

Head-to-head Comparison:
Procter & Gamble (PG*)
vs.
Unilever plc (UL)

.  .  .  .  .

Featured Stock(s):

Procter & Gamble (PG*)
See PG*'s official investor relations' site here.
See the Yahoo! Finance profile for PG* here.

or...

Unilever plc (UL)
See UL's official investor relations' site here.
See the Yahoo! Finance profile for UL here.

 
After this segment, you can see Jim's Lightning Round picks here...

.  .  .  .  .

Jim:    All week, we've been telling you how the pros do it, using a 10-point scale... A brand-new way... a yardstick to judge companies that compete with each other... McDonald's versus Burger King... Coach versus Tiffany... Coke versus Pepsi... Pepsi is still the one, althought the stock was down today... I thought that was a mistake. Cadbury versus Hershey...

And then comparing the results to the stock price to see which is the better buy...

So far, the better company has been the stock to own...

The two I'm going to look at today... well, let's just say there's a divergence. This is Procter & Gamble (PG*) and Unilever plc (UL)... and this comparison shows that there are times when the inferior company may turn out to be the superior stock... Did you hear that? In other words, it's not always the best company that has the best stock...

Sometimes the stock's so cheap, that even an inferior company might be right... 

I went into this comparison of PG* and UL with a huge bias in favor of PG*...  I mean, look, I own it for my charitable trust... 

PG* is the better company.   But, because of the stock price, and UL's stock price...  PG*'s had a big run, while UL has been crushed... PG* may not be the best stock...

.  .  .  .  .

 

.  .  .  .  .

The Bottom Line!:     When the price is right, an inferior company like Unilever plc (UL) can have a better stock than a superior company like Procter & Gamble (PG*).  Of course, this could all change, depending upon where the prices go.  But you need to be aware that not always do you buy the absolute best company when the not-so-great company's stock goes down so much that you have to pick some up.

 

   
 

Stock Snapshots - Includes all stocks mentioned above

 

 

Jim
Cramer's
rating on
this stock

STOCK
SYMBOL

Closing
price
that
day

Opening
price
next
day

Full Company Name/Comments
(see comments above for each)


PG*

69.90

na

Procter & Gamble (PG*)


UL

27.40

na

Unilever plc (UL)


 

 

Go to the LIGHTNING ROUND from tonight's show here >>

See current quotes on Yahoo! Finance from tonight's show stocks here >>

Symbol keys:

A Charitable Trust stock. - An asterisk next to a stock symbol indicates that Jim mentioned it is a stock that he manages within
his charitable trust portfolio.  You can see the complete portfolio
of stocks here >>

Thumbs up - indicates he would buy the stock or, at the very least, not sell the stock.  We do our best to interpret Jim's opinion on stocks, as we think it is indicated by his comments during the show.  Please read his comments to decide for yourself.

Thumbs down - indicates he has said not to buy or to sell the stock, based on his comments  We do our best to interpret Jim's opinion on stocks, as we think it is indicated by his comments during the show.  Please read his comments to decide for yourself.

Back up the truck - indicated by Jim, when he says the stock is so good, that he would do a 'mon-back' on the stock... In other words, this is the sound someone would say to a truck driver, "Come on back... " as he is "backing up the truck" to load up on his cargo.  Translation for buying stocks:  This recommendation by Jim indicates that, after you do your own homework on the stock, you should feel comfortable loading up on it, as it is in a good position to be bought at this point.

Stumped. - Of the 2,000+ stocks that Jim Cramer has in his head, for which he has an informed opinion, he sometimes comes across a caller with a stock he does not know well enough to opine on...  He then indicates he is stumped and will have to come back to it, after he does some homework of his own on the stock.  This usually occurs during the Lightning Round, when Jim does not know in advance who is calling, or what their stock question is about.
 

 
Definitions of key phrases used by Jim, known as "Cramerisms":

Definition:   'Pull the trigger' is Jim's phrase for making the decision at that point to trade - either to 'buy' or to 'sell' (although he usually uses the phrase for buying), as if to say you should feel comfortable enough to make the final decision without looking back...

Definition:   'Ring the Register' is Jim's phrase for selling a stock, and making it a final sale, that you should not look back on.  Put it behind you.

Definition:  'Let It Come In' indicates how you may wait for it to pull back, or have the stock price come down briefly, as your chance (after letting it come in) to buy the rest of your position (i.e., total number of shares you own in that stock).

Definition:  'backing it up' or 'doing a 'mon-back' is Jim's phrase for the metaphor of backing up a truck to load up on a stock by buying it.  'Mon-back is short for the imaginary worker saying, 'Come on back...' as the truck is backing up to receive its load... Notice that we use the little truck icon to indicate where Jim has mentioned this.  Translation for buying stocks:  This recommendation by Jim indicates that, after you do your own homework on the stock, you should feel comfortable loading up on it, as it is in a good position to be bought at this point.
  See more "Cramerisms" & other financial phrases here >>
   
Helpful Websites:
  See the stocks currently known to be in Jim Cramer's
Charitable Trust at:

jim-cramer-charitable-trust-stocks.com

 
See the stocks currently known to be in Warren Buffett's portfolio
of stocks at:

warren-buffett-portfolio.com

 
  Stock Homework 101:   This is an excellent upcoming site that provides resources and links to help you do that homework that Jim Cramer recommends after hearing his suggestions...

StockHomework101.com

This site is coming soon.   Thank you.

 
  FastMoneyRecap:   This site will be a quick summary of recommendations made by the great Fast Money TV show crew, that will offer you a unique service, to compare their picks to Jim Cramer's past comments about those stocks.

Fast Money Recap - Trades for next day...

Compare these picks to Jim's comments for the same stocks.

 

 

   
   
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