Thursday, 09/04/08
Posted 09/05/08,  08:29 am ET

(Scroll down to see Jim's comments below)

 
 
Today's date:  Thursday, 09/04/08

  Dow Jones: 11,188  - 344
  NASDAQ:   2,259   - 74
  S&P 500:   1,236   - 38
 
 
 
 
 
First Segment
   
 

Final Segment 2 Title:

'Tax Haven?'

.  .  .  .  .

Featured Stock(s):

H & R Block (HRB)

See HRB's official investor relations' site here.
See the Yahoo! Finance profile for HRB here.

 
After this segment, you can see Jim's Sudden:Death picks here...

.  .  .  .  .

Jim:   On a down 345 day, you want to do some bargain hunting...  That's what we teach you on this show.  Just like if it were up 340, we'd say you should do some selling, okay...  That's mirror image...

And, right now, I think you've got... how about a great deal on H & R Block (HRB)... which reported a disappointing quarter today, and it's down 9.7%...

I last recommended this one right before tax time on March 19th...  It was at $20 bucks... $20.32...  We're up 17.8% from here, but I think the pullback today is a buyable one... 

.  .  .  .  .

The Bottom Line!:     In my opinion, H & R Block (HRB) doesn't deserve to be down this much... not when we know the tax code is due for a change, with the coming of a new President.  For those of you who didn't buy this one at $20 when we recommended it... well, you're getting a chance at $24, down 2 quick points and change, and I would take it...

 

   
 

Stock Snapshots - Includes all stocks mentioned above

 

 

Jim
Cramer's
rating on
this stock

STOCK
SYMBOL

Closing
price
that
day

Opening
price
next
day

Full Company Name/Comments
(see comments above for each)


HRB

23.93

na

H & R Block (HRB)



       

 

 



See all of tonight's stocks' latest quotes on Yahoo! Finance



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Second Segment
 
 
 

Final Segment 2 Title:

'Positive Attitude'

.  .  .  .  .

Featured Stock(s):

General Stock Comments.
No specific stock picks.

 
After this segment, you can see Jim's Sudden:Death picks here...

.  .  .  .  .

Jim:   Yet another brutal day...  In tough times like this, I think we should stick to the Mad Money motto...  There's always a bull market somewhere and I promise to help you find it.

Any day where we're down 345 points makes you wonder why, other than the very, very long-term positive results from owning stocks... the only real way to augment your paycheck in history... why you should even bother with the market.

This is a horrible stock market for many, many sectors, and many places are in total bear market mode, okay...

That doesn't mean we should stop looking for bull markets.  It just means it's harder to do, and there are far fewer of them...

But futile?...  I have to say never...

You know, if you look at the market through my eyes, you'd see that, buried underneath the losses - and they were hideous - behind the ugliness... is something that's actually mildly constructive... that I think I need to let you in on... particularly on a horrible day...

I'd like to tell you what I'm feeling about some of the market... clearly not the industrials or the commodity stocks... because the biggest driver of those stocks, China, has simply vanished.  Does anyone know where those 1.2 billion people went?  I can't find them...   And the hedge funds that bet that way bet on commodities...  They're liquidating... liquidating like mad...

Even after a beating like today's, I still think the July 15th lows in the financials will hold.

This decline is simply making it easier to buy the stocks we like...  the ones where happier days are coming, because of lower commodity prices, like natural gas, and oil... because of federal intervention to ease the housing crisis...  intervention that I think will work by June 30th of next year...  there are only 300 days left...

My July 15th bottom is not holding for everything, clearly... Corning Inc. (GLW), Dell Inc. (DELL)... industrials like a Terex Corp. (TEX) just falling off a K2, which is steeper by the way than Everest...

.  .  .  .  .

But it's my job to point out what can go right on these down days.

So let me tell you what I see...  Let me give you six reasons why the fallout shelter... the bunker... may not be your permanent locale... even after a day like today...

And I want you to keep this list in mind, no matter what the employment number is going to be tomorrow, because it's going to be horrible...  Steel yourself...

Here are my six reasons why... I believe you have to see some light at the end of the tunnel...  And... it's not the light of an oncoming train...

Here's the list:

1.  First, quietly, but firmly, we seemed to have seen a bottom in the housing stocks.
One that first shadows a turn in housing by June 30th of next year.  In my view, every day that we get evidence of this... even as the conventional wisdom is that there's no housing bottom in sight...

2.  The second reason you need to be positive right now...
We have a plan fix the banks, courtesy of the FDIC...

... selling deposits and keeping the bad loans.  And we have fewer large banks and broker that I believe are in trouble...  I now believe there are actually suitors lining up to acquire Lehman Brothers (LEH), giving the company some options.  This morning, The New York Post... reported that one of the biggest black holes of value, American International Group (AIG), might be close to splitting off its bad loans from its good ones.  That's the same plan that I believe Wachovia Corp. (WB) is using.  People are still making money on that gigantic Merrill Lynch (MER) offering that made the company investable again.  Solving these financial problems immensely.  Remember, look at the lows of July 15th... Wells Fargo (WFC), at $20.  Now at $29...  US Bancorp (USB), at $20.  Now at $31... Wachovia Corp. (WB), at $8, now at $15...  and all of those traded much higher after the bottom.  Those are just today's prices.  Panic, like the panic today in the commodities, caused those lows.  Maybe we saw some of those in the oils today.  They all bounced big, after natural gas closed up... and the forced margin selling for the hedge funds finished at 2:00pm, as it has everyday this week... that's when the margin clerks are done... 

3.  Reason #3 to stay constructive and not panic...
Both candidates for President are likely to lower taxes for individuals...

...one of the reasons why I believe retail has done well, and that's something the market is definitely sensing...  

4.  Commodities have crashed...
The raw costs of making virtually every product are going down...  That's going to help every company that consumes commodities.  That's part of the happier days theory.  Believe it or not, the commodity calamity is actually good for everybody, outside of the companies that produce commodities and the ones that service them.  We've got a strong dollar, low inflation... and, because of the commodity crushing and lower interest rates, that's a recipe for ultimately higher prices, not lower ones.

5.  Gasoline is coming down more than it has...
That's practically producing a tax cut in its own right. 

6.  Finally...  Like hips, I believe Wal-Mart (WMT*) doesn't lie...
100 million people shop there every week, and the stock's up 27% year to date...  It was up today.  To me, that's a sign that consumer is not done for... even as the overall economy is not weak enough to keep the Federal Reserve on hold when it comes to raising rates, despite what you hear everyday...  

.  .  .  .  .

The Bottom Line!:     The bottom line is, as always... there is always a bull market somewhere and I will do my best everyday to try to find it for you, even as he (Bill Pimco) believes it is a mirage... and, perhaps, it's just a proverbial needle in a haystack, but I'll sit on it... you know that.

 

   
 

Stock Snapshots - Includes all stocks mentioned above

 

 

Jim
Cramer's
rating on
this stock

STOCK
SYMBOL

Closing
price
that
day

Opening
price
next
day

Full Company Name/Comments
(see comments above for each)


na

na

na

General Stock Comments.
No specific stock picks.



       

 

 

Go to the LIGHTNING ROUND from tonight's show here >>

See current quotes on Yahoo! Finance from tonight's show stocks here >>

Symbol keys:

A Charitable Trust stock. - An asterisk next to a stock symbol indicates that Jim mentioned it is a stock that he manages within
his charitable trust portfolio.  You can see the complete portfolio
of stocks here >>

Thumbs up - indicates he would buy the stock or, at the very least, not sell the stock.  We do our best to interpret Jim's opinion on stocks, as we think it is indicated by his comments during the show.  Please read his comments to decide for yourself.

Thumbs down - indicates he has said not to buy or to sell the stock, based on his comments  We do our best to interpret Jim's opinion on stocks, as we think it is indicated by his comments during the show.  Please read his comments to decide for yourself.

Back up the truck - indicated by Jim, when he says the stock is so good, that he would do a 'mon-back' on the stock... In other words, this is the sound someone would say to a truck driver, "Come on back... " as he is "backing up the truck" to load up on his cargo.  Translation for buying stocks:  This recommendation by Jim indicates that, after you do your own homework on the stock, you should feel comfortable loading up on it, as it is in a good position to be bought at this point.

Stumped. - Of the 2,000+ stocks that Jim Cramer has in his head, for which he has an informed opinion, he sometimes comes across a caller with a stock he does not know well enough to opine on...  He then indicates he is stumped and will have to come back to it, after he does some homework of his own on the stock.  This usually occurs during the Lightning Round, when Jim does not know in advance who is calling, or what their stock question is about.
 

 
Definitions of key phrases used by Jim, known as "Cramerisms":

Definition:   'Pull the trigger' is Jim's phrase for making the decision at that point to trade - either to 'buy' or to 'sell' (although he usually uses the phrase for buying), as if to say you should feel comfortable enough to make the final decision without looking back...

Definition:   'Ring the Register' is Jim's phrase for selling a stock, and making it a final sale, that you should not look back on.  Put it behind you.

Definition:  'Let It Come In' indicates how you may wait for it to pull back, or have the stock price come down briefly, as your chance (after letting it come in) to buy the rest of your position (i.e., total number of shares you own in that stock).

Definition:  'backing it up' or 'doing a 'mon-back' is Jim's phrase for the metaphor of backing up a truck to load up on a stock by buying it.  'Mon-back is short for the imaginary worker saying, 'Come on back...' as the truck is backing up to receive its load... Notice that we use the little truck icon to indicate where Jim has mentioned this.  Translation for buying stocks:  This recommendation by Jim indicates that, after you do your own homework on the stock, you should feel comfortable loading up on it, as it is in a good position to be bought at this point.
  See more "Cramerisms" & other financial phrases here >>
   
Helpful Websites:
  See the stocks currently known to be in Jim Cramer's
Charitable Trust at:

jim-cramer-charitable-trust-stocks.com

 
See the stocks currently known to be in Warren Buffett's portfolio
of stocks at:

warren-buffett-portfolio.com

 
  Stock Homework 101:   This is an excellent upcoming site that provides resources and links to help you do that homework that Jim Cramer recommends after hearing his suggestions...

StockHomework101.com

This site is coming soon.   Thank you.

 
  FastMoneyRecap:   This site will be a quick summary of recommendations made by the great Fast Money TV show crew, that will offer you a unique service, to compare their picks to Jim Cramer's past comments about those stocks.

Fast Money Recap - Trades for next day...

Compare these picks to Jim's comments for the same stocks.

 

 

   
   
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