Wednesday, 09/17/08
Posted 09/17/08,  08:57 pm ET

(Scroll down to see Jim's comments below)

 
 
Today's date:  Wednesday, 09/17/08

  Dow Jones: 10,609  - 449
  NASDAQ:   2,098  - 109
  S&P 500:   1,156  -  57
 
 
 
 
 
First Segment
   
Opening Segment 1
Title:
'Sum Of All Fears'

.  .  .  .  .

Featured Stock(s):

General comments about AIG and how its failure would affect the market overall... and how it is truly too big to be allowed to fail.

American International Group (AIG)

See Opening Segment 2, below...

 
After this segment, you can see Jim's Lightning Round picks here...


Jim:    What's driving this market?... Fear is driving this market, not facts... not the fundamentals of so many great American companies...

Fear is the reason we were down 449 points today... an irrational move. But fear and irrationality... they don't end like this... That's right... it doesn't mean the selling is over, not by a long shot...

At times like this, when you're overwhelmed with panic, it helps to know the history...

.  .  .  .  .

Now, we've been here before...

Now, you may not know it, because you're not as old as I am, or not trading for as long as I have been...

What did it feel like today?... It felt like 1987... it felt like 1990... when the fear was palpable and the market was getting crushed... pulverized.

But just like 1987 and 1990 - and these are worse cases, okay - to draw from FDR's first inaugural, the only thing you have to fear is fear itself... in both cases.

The people who ultimately, not quickly... maybe not here but, ultimately, listen to the positives, did the homework, and bought good, steady companies on the cheap, were the ones who came out ahead... maybe it took a year...

The people who didn't come out ahead were the people who sold repeatedly, repeatedly into the panic.

The reference to FDR's statement is frankly a little ironic... What Roosevelt was talking about... he was talking about trying to calm Main Street America... because regular Joes and Janes were frantically pulling their money out of commercial banks and savings and loans, destroying those institutions in their wake.

.  .  .  .  .

You know what's doing it this time?...

This time it's hedge funds... scared to death after Lehman's collapse... a collapse by the way that left... and you haven't read this, heard this or anything, but I'm going to give it you... left many of the hedge funds unable to withdraw their capital from Lehman's overseas arm... These people are doing the panicking... these hedge funds are now just like the regular Janes and Joes in the '30s... are frantically trying to withdraw their capital from all the investment banks, because they're fearful, and they're creating the real panic you see on the screen... and that's how we had those great stocks down today, and it's probably not done.

See, it's a run on investment banks by hedge funds, not a run on savings and loans by the public, and that's all happening in the wake of the government's decision to let Lehman go without a plan to make all those with money there, good.

I don't care whether you like that or not, but that's what happened.

Also, I'm not saying hedge funds are to blame. I'm saying they're pulling their money out. I'm not giving you some sort of, ooh, I hate hedge funds... I'm just telling you what's happened.

Now, in the crash of October of '87 - a moment that I don't invoke lightly, and I have never invoked on the show - I was running my hedge fund, and I was firmly in the grip of the terror myself.

.  .  .  .  .

What was I worried about?...

How about survival... my firm surviving. I was worried about my mortgage, okay... I was worried that I'd bought a place and that I couldn't fund it... that I'd default. I was absolutely frightened.

I was lucky enough to be in cash on that fateful day, when we dropped 508 points... and that, from a much lower level than we are now, so the percentage loss on 508 was just gigantic... we were at the 2300 (Dow) level.

But we had dropping for weeks into the crash. Like now, the fear was palpable. I didn't want to take advantage of the decline to buy, even though we'd been cut in half, because I was too concerned that the brokerage houses were all going to fail.

Familiar?...

Or the customer on the other side of the trade was going to be able to deliver on what I bought... I was worried, like everyone is worried today, about the system... It turned out to be wrong. I was more afraid of the fear than I was of the fundamentals. I knew it, but it didn't matter. I was paralyzed.

People often forget Terrible Tuesday, the day after Black Monday, where the market dropped 33% at the open... although you couldn't tell... because most of the stocks didn't really open... They couldn't open... too many sellers.

Again, I sidelined myself, because it was just too scary. It felt just like it does today, or maybe like it will tomorrow, or maybe Friday, or maybe next week... I mean, this is what it feels like. I'm not saying, hey, this was the bottom... Do you hear that? Not at all... But, back then, we didn't bottom until many of the major firms came in all at once to buy stocks, and the Fed issued a statement saying it would provide all the liquidity we needed. There was confidence built. Confidence is totally shot right now, totally shot... There's no confidence in the system.

We stopped going down, but the fear was still too thick for me to act. We still thought at my firm that many of the major brokerage firms would go belly up... And many of them weren't in compliance with the paperwork, and many of them simply weren't picking up the phone... I was trying to buy some Microsoft, and no one would take my call... no one was picking up... It felt like the end of the world... It turned out it wasn't.

Now, I don't think anyone looking at what happened today to Morgan Stanley (MS*) and Goldman Sachs (GS*) - and I own these for my charitable trust... these are good firms - would dispute that we are in that same survival mode again, like '87. The stocks of these companies are reflecting that they're in dire straits - much worse than I actually think they are - but so what? So Cramer thinks they're better... big deal!

I think they can withstand the hedge fund redemptions. I think their balance sheets are good. They can always get money from the Fed, in my opinion...

But, in many ways, this time is indeed worse than 1987... AIG, Fannie and Freddie, Lehman, Bear Stearns....

Lehman still hasn't been sorted through... too fast... We had too many aftershocks that we have to worry about, and there's too much damage to they system, plus... there's now a sense that the U.S. government is now a "cartoon government" with a "cartoon Fed"...

But you've got to recognize that this is a "the only thing you have to fear is fear itself" moment... with the fear driving us into an irrational panic, which means the selling might not be done tomorrow. Who knows when the selling panic is over. Maybe next week, maybe next month...

.  .  .  .  .

So what do you do in times like these?...

What are the lessons of the history of '87 and '90?...

In '87, when I was sure the system would work... of course, the market had already moved a lot then, and I think the same now, frankly... more than I did then... I finally looked at the actual fundamentals of the companies that were trading... who had cash, who had little debt... who was trading through their cash... who could make it through if we had a severe recession which, by the way, I don't think we'll have now, and didn't think we'd have then... but it didn't matter. I figured it had to mean something...

You've got to recognize that there are strong companies out there. We're not a bankrupt nation filled with bankrupt companies...

If you feel confident now, and you're not paralyzed by fear, that's where I would look, at the many, many companies outside of the financials, where the fundamentals are not only sound - and I hate to use that term, because the government so abused it - but where the balance sheets are great, and there's a lot of cash...

Of course, I do not think we've bottomed, so I would be cautious about buying... Keep your powder dry, because we could always go lower... as we did after the worst week in '87, which then turned out to be the crash. Don't let the fear overwhelm you though. The lower we go, the more important it will be to start doing some research to buy things. If you can't take the pain though, take some losses, just take some off the table. I believe you'll probably get a chance to buy things lower in the ensuing weeks... the fear is that motivational.

Look, I know you probably scared. But, in '87, in the worst-case scenario, where most of the stocks I bought got cut in half and then, in some cases, cut in half again, everything I bought made me money six months later... everything. And, in fact, every stock that was on the most active list the day before the crash... before the crash... the worst day to buy, perhaps, in history... was up one year later.

That's right! You made money if you bought on what was arguably maybe the dumbest day in history to buy, but you had to wait a year... Remember that, before you succumb to the fears that are driving this market, and exit all together.

Now, in many ways, it's true, again, that this period is worse than '87. I keep stressing that. The obituaries... AIG, Lehman, Fannie, Freddie, Bear... and do I know who's next? No. I'm just a guy... I'm a TV guy... I'm a TV guy who's traded in bad markets.

We're experiencing a meltdown in the financials, and I don't see how we can turn that around without foreign help. This is how 1990 felt too, when most banks in this country went belly up... and we didn't bottom until Prince Alaweed - a Saudi - came in and bought a huge chunk of Citigroup, at $5. Nobody that he would. No one thought that it would matter. No one thought that would cause a bottom...

We were all too fearful... like now.

.  .  .  .  .

I don't want you to repeat my mistake back then of almost staying negative forever. The financials need money from the Middle East or China to put a stop to the panic. We don't have enough money in this country to stop it.

I wouldn't rule out though that some foreign grown-ups give us some cash - a cash infusion - to stop the bleeding... If that doesn't happen, then you can't take the '87 scenario off the table...

Now, let's remember what that was...

We didn't bottom until we were down more than 50% from our highs... and, frankly, you could say 65% if you count the prices at 11:05 a.m. that Tuesday... after the crash... after the Black Monday...

This is the point to remember though...

We did catch bargains of a lifetime... Oh, I'm no bull tonight... I'm not saying, now's the time... I'm saying there will be a time to buy... and, if you panic, you'll miss it.

.  .  .  .  .

The Bottom Line!:     Fear is in control... just like it was in '87 and '90... but, back then, if you kept your eyes peeled... that's not the same as buy, buy, buy...  kept your eyes peeled for good buys caused by panic selling, and kept some money on the sidelines to buy as things went lower...  maybe you sold some things, so you had money, so when things got cheaper, you ended up making some money...   Again, I am not saying we're done going down.  No...  This reign of terror could last a while longer.   I am saying don't let your judgment be one of its victims.  The opportunities were there in '87 when we were down much more, and we could be down much more again...  The opportunities were there in 1990, when we were really down a lot more with the banks...  and I think they'll probably come again sometime soon.

   
 

Stock Snapshots - Includes all stocks mentioned above

 

 

Jim
Cramer's
rating on
this stock

STOCK
SYMBOL

Closing
price
that
day

Opening
price
next
day

Full Company Name/Comments
(see comments above for each)

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na

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Second Segment
 
Final Segment 2
Title:
'Fear Factor'

.  .  .  .  .

Featured Stock(s):

General comments... about the AIG bailout and other broad market issues.

 
After this segment, you can see Jim's Sudden:Death picks here...

.  .  .  .  .

Jim:    Here's a wild one... We may be down 449 straight points... but do you know that I actually believe we're in much better shape today than we were yesterday...

That's something that's hard to see right now, because fear is in complete control of this market.

It's true. Things are better...

If AIG weren't bailed out, here's what would have happened... we would have been down 1000 points... maybe 1500 points... probably down 10%... maybe more. No, I'm not kidding... 10% would be minimal, if AIG hadn't been rescued... minimal.

The worst mistake you can make right now is to let your emotions or panic govern your decisions...

In 1998, after we had been down mercilessly for weeks and weeks... I was hedge fund then... and my positions had taken 30-50% beatings... I wrote a column in TheStreet.com... I had just started it... I wrote a column that said, "Get Out Now"... That was the headline... Hey, that was panic. That stunk like panic...

Do you know, 10 minutes later, after the article appeared... and the web was all new and exciting... literally, the Fed called an emergency meeting, and cut rates... They literally had said three days earlier... they said, on October 5th, that they weren't going to cut rates, and October 8th, they cut rates big... they announced that they were going to cut them... And we bottomed.

What did I look like? How about a total doofus... If you want to see me be a total doofus, it's all chronicled in CONFESSIONS OF A STREET ADDICT. I can't believe that I wrote it. Obviously, I have mental problems that I revealed exactly how panicked I was... I panicked. I let the fear color my thinking, and I was wrong.

Do you know, on that day, I was down 30% in my fund. I ended up finishing the year up. I got lucky though, because I almost let my fear wreck me. I reversed my positions. I missed the first 10%... no, I missed about... well, it's all in the book... a couple of hundred points.

Now, I have mixed feelings about this market... but I also have an absolute conviction that you cannot let your emotions rule. Again, we'll probably go lower, but you need to see the positives for what they are, and not brush them aside. There are big negatives out there. You don't need me for those.

Making big emotional bets never works...

Making small, incremental ones, either way, long or short selling, based on the facts... now that works... not the panic...

.  .  .  .  .

The Bottom Line!:     Remember, I am not being a cheerleader, I am not being a Pollyanna... I'm being negative, alright...   As horrible as it seems though, we're better off today than we were yesterday... If you let the fear control you, you wouldn't know it.  If history is our guide, we will go still lower, but it's still not an excuse for panicking... not with AIG rescued and the SEC starting to do its job.

.  .  .  .  .

 

   
 

Stock Snapshots - Includes all stocks mentioned above

 

 

Jim
Cramer's
rating on
this stock

STOCK
SYMBOL

Closing
price
that
day

Opening
price
next
day

Full Company Name/Comments
(see comments above for each)

na

na

na

na





 

       

 

 

Go to the LIGHTNING ROUND from tonight's show here >>

See current quotes on Yahoo! Finance from tonight's show stocks here >>

Symbol keys:

A Charitable Trust stock. - An asterisk next to a stock symbol indicates that Jim mentioned it is a stock that he manages within
his charitable trust portfolio.  You can see the complete portfolio
of stocks here >>

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Back up the truck - indicated by Jim, when he says the stock is so good, that he would do a 'mon-back' on the stock... In other words, this is the sound someone would say to a truck driver, "Come on back... " as he is "backing up the truck" to load up on his cargo.  Translation for buying stocks:  This recommendation by Jim indicates that, after you do your own homework on the stock, you should feel comfortable loading up on it, as it is in a good position to be bought at this point.

Stumped. - Of the 2,000+ stocks that Jim Cramer has in his head, for which he has an informed opinion, he sometimes comes across a caller with a stock he does not know well enough to opine on...  He then indicates he is stumped and will have to come back to it, after he does some homework of his own on the stock.  This usually occurs during the Lightning Round, when Jim does not know in advance who is calling, or what their stock question is about.
 

 
Definitions of key phrases used by Jim, known as "Cramerisms":

Definition:   'Pull the trigger' is Jim's phrase for making the decision at that point to trade - either to 'buy' or to 'sell' (although he usually uses the phrase for buying), as if to say you should feel comfortable enough to make the final decision without looking back...

Definition:   'Ring the Register' is Jim's phrase for selling a stock, and making it a final sale, that you should not look back on.  Put it behind you.

Definition:  'Let It Come In' indicates how you may wait for it to pull back, or have the stock price come down briefly, as your chance (after letting it come in) to buy the rest of your position (i.e., total number of shares you own in that stock).

Definition:  'backing it up' or 'doing a 'mon-back' is Jim's phrase for the metaphor of backing up a truck to load up on a stock by buying it.  'Mon-back is short for the imaginary worker saying, 'Come on back...' as the truck is backing up to receive its load... Notice that we use the little truck icon to indicate where Jim has mentioned this.  Translation for buying stocks:  This recommendation by Jim indicates that, after you do your own homework on the stock, you should feel comfortable loading up on it, as it is in a good position to be bought at this point.
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