General comments about AIG and
how its failure would affect the
market overall... and how it is
truly too big to be allowed to
fail.
American International Group
(AIG)
See Opening Segment 2,
below...
After this segment, you
can see Jim's Lightning
Round picks
here...
Jim: What's
driving this market?... Fear is
driving this market, not
facts... not the fundamentals of
so many great American
companies...
Fear is the reason we were down
449 points today... an
irrational move. But fear and
irrationality... they don't end
like this... That's right... it
doesn't mean the selling is
over, not by a long shot...
At times like this, when you're
overwhelmed with panic, it helps
to know the history...
. . . .
.
Now, we've been here before...
Now, you may not know it,
because you're not as old as I
am, or not trading for as long
as I have been...
What did it feel like today?...
It felt like 1987... it felt
like 1990... when the fear was
palpable and the market was
getting crushed... pulverized.
But just like 1987 and 1990 -
and these are worse cases, okay
- to draw from FDR's first
inaugural, the only thing you
have to fear is fear itself...
in both cases.
The people who ultimately, not
quickly... maybe not here but,
ultimately, listen to the
positives, did the homework, and
bought good, steady companies on
the cheap, were the ones who
came out ahead... maybe it took
a year...
The people who didn't come out
ahead were the people who sold
repeatedly, repeatedly into the
panic.
The reference to FDR's statement
is frankly a little ironic...
What Roosevelt was talking
about... he was talking about
trying to calm Main Street
America... because regular Joes
and Janes were frantically
pulling their money out of
commercial banks and savings and
loans, destroying those
institutions in their wake.
. . . .
.
You know what's doing it this
time?...
This time it's hedge funds...
scared to death after Lehman's
collapse... a collapse by the
way that left... and you haven't
read this, heard this or
anything, but I'm going to give
it you... left many of the hedge
funds unable to withdraw their
capital from Lehman's overseas
arm... These people are doing
the panicking... these hedge
funds are now just like the
regular Janes and Joes in the
'30s... are frantically trying
to withdraw their capital from
all the investment banks,
because they're fearful, and
they're creating the real panic
you see on the screen... and
that's how we had those great
stocks down today, and it's
probably not done.
See, it's a run on investment
banks by hedge funds, not a run
on savings and loans by the
public, and that's all happening
in the wake of the government's
decision to let Lehman go
without a plan to make all those
with money there, good.
I don't care whether you like
that or not, but that's what
happened.
Also, I'm not saying hedge funds
are to blame. I'm saying they're
pulling their money out. I'm not
giving you some sort of, ooh, I
hate hedge funds... I'm just
telling you what's happened.
Now, in the crash of October of
'87 - a moment that I don't
invoke lightly, and I have never
invoked on the show - I was
running my hedge fund, and I was
firmly in the grip of the terror
myself.
. . . .
.
What was I worried about?...
How about survival... my firm
surviving. I was worried about
my mortgage, okay... I was
worried that I'd bought a place
and that I couldn't fund it...
that I'd default. I was
absolutely frightened.
I was lucky enough to be in cash
on that fateful day, when we
dropped 508 points... and that,
from a much lower level than we
are now, so the percentage loss
on 508 was just gigantic... we
were at the 2300 (Dow) level.
But we had dropping for weeks
into the crash. Like now, the
fear was palpable. I didn't want
to take advantage of the decline
to buy, even though we'd been
cut in half, because I was too
concerned that the brokerage
houses were all going to fail.
Familiar?...
Or the customer on the other
side of the trade was going to
be able to deliver on what I
bought... I was worried, like
everyone is worried today, about
the system... It turned out to
be wrong. I was more afraid of
the fear than I was of the
fundamentals. I knew it, but it
didn't matter. I was paralyzed.
People often forget Terrible
Tuesday, the day after Black
Monday, where the market dropped
33% at the open... although you
couldn't tell... because most of
the stocks didn't really open...
They couldn't open... too many
sellers.
Again, I sidelined myself,
because it was just too scary.
It felt just like it does today,
or maybe like it will tomorrow,
or maybe Friday, or maybe next
week... I mean, this is what it
feels like. I'm not saying, hey,
this was the bottom... Do you
hear that? Not at all... But,
back then, we didn't bottom
until many of the major firms
came in all at once to buy
stocks, and the Fed issued a
statement saying it would
provide all the liquidity we
needed. There was confidence
built. Confidence is totally
shot right now, totally shot...
There's no confidence in the
system.
We stopped going down, but the
fear was still too thick for me
to act. We still thought at my
firm that many of the major
brokerage firms would go belly
up... And many of them weren't
in compliance with the
paperwork, and many of them
simply weren't picking up the
phone... I was trying to buy
some Microsoft, and no one would
take my call... no one was
picking up... It felt like the
end of the world... It turned
out it wasn't.
Now, I don't think anyone
looking at what happened today
to
Morgan Stanley (MS*)
and
Goldman Sachs (GS*)
- and I own these for
my charitable trust... these are
good firms - would dispute that
we are in that same survival
mode again, like '87. The stocks
of these companies are
reflecting that they're in dire
straits - much worse than I
actually think they are - but so
what? So Cramer thinks they're
better... big deal!
I think they can withstand the
hedge fund redemptions. I think
their balance sheets are good.
They can always get money from
the Fed, in my opinion...
But, in many ways, this time is
indeed worse than 1987... AIG,
Fannie and Freddie, Lehman, Bear
Stearns....
Lehman still hasn't been sorted
through... too fast... We had
too many aftershocks that we
have to worry about, and there's
too much damage to they system,
plus... there's now a sense that
the U.S. government is now a
"cartoon government" with a
"cartoon Fed"...
But you've got to recognize that
this is a "the only thing you
have to fear is fear itself"
moment... with the fear driving
us into an irrational panic,
which means the selling might
not be done tomorrow. Who knows
when the selling panic is over.
Maybe next week, maybe next
month...
. . . .
.
So what do you do in times
like these?...
What are the lessons of the
history of '87 and '90?...
In '87, when I was sure the
system would work... of course,
the market had already moved a
lot then, and I think the same
now, frankly... more than I did
then... I finally looked at the
actual fundamentals of the
companies that were trading...
who had cash, who had little
debt... who was trading through
their cash... who could make it
through if we had a severe
recession which, by the way, I
don't think we'll have now, and
didn't think we'd have then...
but it didn't matter. I figured
it had to mean something...
You've got to recognize that
there are strong companies out
there. We're not a bankrupt
nation filled with bankrupt
companies...
If you feel confident now, and
you're not paralyzed by fear,
that's where I would look, at
the many, many companies outside
of the financials, where the
fundamentals are not only sound
- and I hate to use that term,
because the government so abused
it - but where the balance
sheets are great, and there's a
lot of cash...
Of course, I do not think we've
bottomed, so I would be cautious
about buying... Keep your powder
dry, because we could always go
lower... as we did after the
worst week in '87, which then
turned out to be the crash.
Don't let the fear overwhelm you
though. The lower we go, the
more important it will be to
start doing some
research to buy
things. If you can't take the
pain though, take some losses,
just take some off the table. I
believe you'll probably get a
chance to buy things lower in
the ensuing weeks... the fear is
that motivational.
Look, I know you probably
scared. But, in '87, in the
worst-case scenario, where most
of the stocks I bought got cut
in half and then, in some cases,
cut in half again, everything I
bought made me money six months
later... everything. And, in
fact, every stock that was on
the most active list the day
before the crash... before the
crash... the worst day to buy,
perhaps, in history... was up
one year later.
That's right! You made money if
you bought on what was arguably
maybe the dumbest day in history
to buy, but you had to wait a
year... Remember that, before
you succumb to the fears that
are driving this market, and
exit all together.
Now, in many ways, it's true,
again, that this period is worse
than '87. I keep stressing that.
The obituaries... AIG, Lehman,
Fannie, Freddie, Bear... and do
I know who's next? No. I'm just
a guy... I'm a TV guy... I'm a
TV guy who's traded in bad
markets.
We're experiencing a meltdown in
the financials, and I don't see
how we can turn that around
without foreign help. This is
how 1990 felt too, when most
banks in this country went belly
up... and we didn't bottom until
Prince Alaweed - a Saudi - came
in and bought a huge chunk of
Citigroup, at $5. Nobody that he
would. No one thought that it
would matter. No one thought
that would cause a bottom...
We were all too fearful... like
now.
. . . .
.
I don't want you to repeat my
mistake back then of almost
staying negative forever. The
financials need money from the
Middle East or China to put a
stop to the panic. We don't have
enough money in this country to
stop it.
I wouldn't rule out though that
some foreign grown-ups give us
some cash - a cash infusion - to
stop the bleeding... If that
doesn't happen, then you can't
take the '87 scenario off the
table...
Now, let's remember what that
was...
We didn't bottom until we were
down more than 50% from our
highs... and, frankly, you could
say 65% if you count the prices
at 11:05 a.m. that Tuesday...
after the crash... after the
Black Monday...
This is the point to remember
though...
We did catch bargains of a
lifetime... Oh, I'm no bull
tonight... I'm not saying, now's
the time... I'm saying there
will be a time to buy... and, if
you panic, you'll miss it.
. . . .
.
The Bottom Line!:
Fear is in control... just like it
was in '87 and '90... but, back then, if
you kept your eyes peeled... that's not
the same as buy, buy, buy... kept
your eyes peeled for good buys caused by
panic selling, and kept some money on
the sidelines to buy as things went
lower... maybe you sold some
things, so you had money, so when things
got cheaper, you ended up making some
money... Again, I am not
saying we're done going down.
No... This reign of terror could
last a while longer. I am
saying don't let your judgment be one of
its victims. The opportunities
were there in '87 when we were down much
more, and we could be down much more
again... The opportunities were
there in 1990, when we were really down
a lot more with the banks... and I
think they'll probably come again
sometime soon.
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Second
Segment
Final Segment
2
Title:
'Fear
Factor'
. . . .
.
Featured
Stock(s):
General comments... about the
AIG bailout and other broad
market issues.
After this segment, you
can see Jim's
Sudden:Death picks
here...
. . . .
.
Jim:
Here's a wild one...
We may be down 449
straight points... but do
you know that I actually
believe we're in much
better shape today than we
were yesterday...
That's something that's
hard to see right now,
because fear is in
complete control of this
market.
It's true. Things are
better...
If AIG weren't bailed out,
here's what would have
happened... we would have
been down 1000 points...
maybe 1500 points...
probably down 10%... maybe
more. No, I'm not
kidding... 10% would be
minimal, if AIG hadn't
been rescued... minimal.
The worst mistake you can
make right now is to let
your emotions or panic
govern your decisions...
In 1998, after we had been
down mercilessly for weeks
and weeks... I was hedge
fund then... and my
positions had taken 30-50%
beatings... I wrote a
column in TheStreet.com...
I had just started it... I
wrote a column that said,
"Get Out Now"... That was
the headline... Hey, that
was panic. That stunk like
panic...
Do you know, 10 minutes
later, after the article
appeared... and the web
was all new and
exciting... literally, the
Fed called an emergency
meeting, and cut rates...
They literally had said
three days earlier... they
said, on October 5th, that
they weren't going to cut
rates, and October 8th,
they cut rates big... they
announced that they were
going to cut them... And
we bottomed.
What did I look like? How
about a total doofus... If
you want to see me be a
total doofus, it's all
chronicled in CONFESSIONS
OF A STREET ADDICT. I can't
believe that I wrote it.
Obviously, I have mental
problems that I revealed
exactly how panicked I
was... I panicked. I let
the fear color my
thinking, and I was wrong.
Do you know, on that day,
I was down 30% in my fund.
I ended up finishing the
year up. I got lucky
though, because I almost
let my fear wreck me. I
reversed my positions. I
missed the first 10%...
no, I missed about...
well, it's all in
the book... a couple
of hundred points.
Now, I have mixed feelings
about this market... but I
also have an absolute
conviction that you cannot
let your emotions rule.
Again, we'll probably go
lower, but you need to see
the positives for what
they are, and not brush
them aside. There are big
negatives out there. You
don't need me for those.
Making big emotional bets
never works...
Making small, incremental
ones, either way, long or
short selling, based on
the facts... now that
works... not the panic...
. . . .
.
The Bottom Line!:
Remember, I am not being a
cheerleader, I am not being a
Pollyanna... I'm being negative,
alright... As horrible as it
seems though, we're better off today
than we were yesterday... If you let the
fear control you, you wouldn't know it.
If history is our guide, we will go
still lower, but it's still not an
excuse for panicking... not with AIG
rescued and the SEC starting to do its
job.
. . . .
.
■
Stock Snapshots - Includes
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Jim
Cramer's
rating on
this stock
STOCK
SYMBOL
Closing
price
that
day
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price
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