Tuesday, 09/23/08
Posted 09/24/08,  08:17 am ET

(Scroll down to see Jim's comments below)

 
 
Today's date:  Tuesday, 09/23/08

  Dow Jones: 10,854  - 161
  NASDAQ:   2,153   - 25
  S&P 500:   1,188   - 18
 
 
 
 
 
First Segment
 
 
 
Opening Segment 2
Title:
'Bailout Debate'

.  .  .  .  .

Featured Stock(s):

General continuing comments about how critical it is that the proposed bailout plan is approved as soon as possible.

See Opening Segment 2, below...

 
After this segment, you can see Jim's Lightning Round picks here...
 

Note:  This page needs to be refreshed, given that its information
changes often.
Please click the button below to reload the page:

 

Jim:     Foreclosures... not housing, not banks... foreclosures... that's what this Paulson plan is about...

You're about to hear the only unvarnished truth you're ever going to hear about this Paulson plan right now, from the administration's biggest critic...

This plan is about stopping foreclosures, which are happening, according to the Senate, at about 10,000 a day in our great country. This is why this Paulson plan is such a must... That's why the stock market tanks whenever it seems stalled or watered down... as it did today, on word that nothing might happen in time to save this economy.

We've got to stop that. This plan's got to pass. If you're going to get a turn in housing, which is what the banks need in order to have more capital, so that this country works... then you need to get the foreclosures down. They are at the heart of everything...

We are shrinking the numbers of new homes built... the new homebuilders are buying... they're building a third of what they did three years ago... We are making mortgage money available through the government-owned Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, so people who are buying new homes are not canceling and leaving their deposits, because they can't sell their old ones.

But we have yet to be able to halt the worst part of what's happening in America... foreclosures.

.  .  .  .  .

Make no mistake about it, the Paulson plan should drastically curtail foreclosures. And the administration has to make this point over and over, because Congress - as I watched all day - simply doesn't get it. They got all sorts of things wrong. Well, you know what... they loved everything all the way down. Now they object?

Make no mistake about it, with Paulson's plan, we will get far fewer foreclosures because, once the government owns the mortgages, it can cut the interest rates to zero, for heaven's sake... because it wants to keep people in their homes, thereby drying up the unsold home pool that keeps burgeoning.

Do you know, whole neighborhoods that were for sale will now be a buy... and the buyers, cramped in their mother-in-law's apartments, will burst out to buy... while those who are stretched will no longer feel like walking away from their homes... Walking away from their homes... something I said last year...

The objections to the plan are frivolous... but we're going to tick them down anyway... I can't believe I'm defending this, but I'm right...

Here are five lies about the plan... They were told all day, and has been told everyday for three days... Five lies... and why it should not be defeated...

.  .  .  .  .

Let's take the big objections head on...

Bailout Myth #1: It doesn't address the real problem of kicking people out of homes.
That's totally wrong. People are walking away, and getting kicked out of their homes, because their homes keep dropping in value and it makes good economic sense to leave.

What's the cause of that?...

Too many foreclosures.

You get housing to stop depreciating, and foreclosures will stop. We'll be home free.

.  .  .  .  .

Bailout Myth #2: The plan costs too much.
Hey, if the plan works - and I think it will - it will even cost money. We could make money! Because the mortgages we will be buying will be made whole, as housing will stop depreciating. If we stop house price depreciation, these people will want to stay in their house...

In fact, I believe this plan will make us money...

The government's going to take equity stakes where it can to win. I worked at Goldman Sachs... If there's anything Paulson knows how to do... ruthlessly, I have to admit, and not that well-liked... it's make money. Paulson knows how to make money. That's what he did all his life...

Why shouldn't we trust him to make money for us?... He'll make money for us. I'm banking with him.

We should share jointly in the appreciation of both the bank stocks that we buy from, and the mortgages in the optimum plan. I think he'll work that out for us.

.  .  .  .  .

Bailout Myth #3: The executives will make too much money.
Wow, okay... stop trading... You know what? Create an executive compensation board... Cut the pay... Or make the execs waive their salary for 2009, if they participate... They're all rich guys. We all hate them anyway, right?... You know we're going to get "show" trials in the end anyway...

.  .  .  .  .

Bailout Myth #4: Once we discover the prices the government pays, it will force banks to take big writedowns they can't handle.
How many times have we heard that today?... Please! First, the responsible banks, like Wells Fargo (WFC), Bank of America (BAC), and US Bancorp (USB)... they've already written down the loans, because that's what you do, you know... You don't hide them under the rug... They're going to be helped, not hurt, and we need their money. We need them to loan... If other banks can't take the hit, we should look the other way for now. Yes, yes... forbearance! We had forbearance in 1990, and it saved the banking system. Those in real trouble shouldn't exist anyway... they should be allowed to go under. The FDIC will seize their deposits, and sell them to outfits... yes... like Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley... that need deposits and don't want bad loans. This is actually why I like those two stocks so much... I love those two stocks and the media's so dead wrong about the new changes in their structure... it's why I'm buying them for my charitable trust... The media's dead wrong. The media would have you believe, by the way... just read through... from my buddies at The Wall Street Journal 70-80 times a day... They would have you believe that, if Lehman had joined the Federal Reserve system, and become a commercial bank, instead of being an independent investment house, it would have hurt Lehman... Guess what... being an investment house killed them... The same would have happened to Morgan Stanly and Goldman Sachs... which are valued at half what commercial banks are worth. It could now increase their value when they buy deposits the FDIC has seized from banks, who turn out to be lying about the value of their mortgage portfolios. Mark my words... given the fact that Goldman's got a clean book... it's 89 to 100... given the fact that Goldman Sachs will be a commercial bank... it will be the cheapest commercial bank on a price-to-book (value)... Goldman will not be independent next year at this time. Citigroup (C) will buy them, okay... that's how cheap it is.

.  .  .  .  .

Bailout Myth #5: We don't need to be in a rush.
Alright, how about those guys?... We've got to deliberate... Oh yeah, let's put that fire department on hold while Rome burns... and we've got a real Rome burning here.

Now, this is the biggest joke of all... Last night, Washington Mutual (WM) - the largest thrift by deposits - had its debt downgraded again. We need this legislated to ensure, if it happens, that the government can sell the deposits of a Washington Mutual to a Goldman or Morgan... and put the mortgages into our resolution trust. Otherwise, they simply would overwhelm the FDIC and cause bank runs. When did we have bank runs last? The 1930s... We need this, if only to deal with Washington Mutual.

Here's the bottom line...

.  .  .  .  .

The Bottom Line!:     The Plan... It's awful... it stinks... it's nasty... and it's far better than anything else.  I am betting that, once we have real prices and a floor, the government may not even buy that many mortgages.  The private sector will want in.  I'm betting the private sector will be anxious to buy, with the federal government backstop underneath.  I am betting that those banks - split into the good and bad banks - Mr. Wachovia, Bob Steel - will thrive, and have the money to be able to fund both sides of the bank, because the federal government must take a stake in the bad bank.  This plan must be passed, if we are to avoid the Great Depression 2.  For three straight nights, I have come out here and told you to sell for the simple reason that I fear this plan will not pass.  You fortunately could have sold into strength on Friday, on Monday morning and, bizarrely, both today at the opening and at 3pm.  I say bizarrely, because look, this market is horrible.  I say it to everyone on the Street... this is the worst market I've seen since 1987.  It's worse than that.  It's the legacy we endure with the Lehman bankruptcy, the AIG seizure, and the near destruction of the near-innocent, well-run investment banks... Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley... as hedge funds deserted them and no other banks would lend them money.  Alright, that's just too much to handle.  Without the plan, it might just turn out to be a cub play...  meaning the children of bears are taking this apart, as the Mama Bear and Papa Bear train their kids, on this oh-so-easy market to crush, even with these short rules.  This Plan must be passed, and passed now, or I am giving you a prediction of a sequel of the Great Depression.   If you believe I had the foresight to predict the foreclosures, the closures of the firms, the big unemployment jump, when I ranted last year...   Believe me, that wasn't easy.  Every single establishment guy thought I was a complete nut and a kook... every one... The New York Post, Matt Lauer...  then I'm asking you to trust me.   If this Plan doesn't get approved, then we're going to have a Great Depression, and it's got to be approved immediately.  It should be approved this week, before - and this is going to happen imminently - the next big bank failure occurs, that causes you to think, I've got to get in line...  

 

   
 

Stock Snapshots - Includes all stocks mentioned above

 

 

Jim
Cramer's
rating on
this stock

STOCK
SYMBOL

Closing
price
that
day

Opening
price
next
day

Full Company Name/Comments
(see comments above for each)

na

na

na

na

 

 

     
   

 

 



See all of tonight's stocks' latest quotes on Yahoo! Finance



Most popular
investing books ordered:
(click any book to see at Amazon.com)

 
 
 

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 

 
 
 
 

 

 

 


 

 


We need your help!
If you find our service valuable, your donation is critically helpful to support
our operating costs and is MUCH appreciated!
(click below to donate)

We are serving thousands of new visitors every day and our costs are growing as well.  Thank you for your support & generosity!


 


 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 
 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 
 

Mutual-Fund-Holdings.com
NEW RESOURCE!  See Ken Heebner's CGM Focus Fund
Top 25 holdings - The No. 3 Top-Performing Mutual Fund in 2007


 
 
Second Segment
 
Opening Segment 2
Title:
'CEO Interview'

Michael Ward, CEO

.  .  .  .  .

Featured Stock(s):

CSX Corp. (CSX)

See CSX's official investor relations' site here.
See the Yahoo! Finance profile for CSX here.



 
After this segment, you can see Jim's Lightning Round picks here...


Jim:    With all the time we've spent talking about the banks and Paulson's rescue plan, and how I think we could get a recession, if not a depression, if it fails, because corporate credit would freeze up...  I don't want to ignore what's going on in the real economy right now... The one where people make things, move them around, send them overseas, and sell them...  unlike the financials where money is created out of thin air...

So how is the real economy doing?...

I always look to the transports...  My favorite transport, CSX Corp. (CSX)... my favorite railroad stock, headed by my favorite man, Michael Ward.

I think that his company is a great thermometer for the real U.S. economy, because it ships a bunch of things all over the country, so we're going to ask him about that.  Even as the stock has been targeted by hedge funds gone wild...  they wanted to depose the best CEO in the railroad business... but that's in the past.   Hedge funds are responsible... I mean, I'm not a conspirator but, remember, I was a hedge fund manager.  I know... they're blamed for a lot.

The last time I had Michael Ward on the show, on August 21st, CSX was at $61.96.  Now it's at $56.90.  Of course, the market's been horrible.  In the interim, the company raised guidance in 2008, from $3.40-$3.60 (earnings per share) to $3.65-$3.75.   Pricing was up 6%.  Fuel prices stabilized.  And, since there's a 60-day lag between the price of CSX's fuel, and the fuel surcharge, this is one of those companies that's making money off being able to charge for higher oil prices, even as oil prices have actually come down.

I didn't buy, yesterday, the big move in oil... it was phony.  It's back down today.  Now it's starting to be right...  but higher oil prices are one thing that could hurt CSX ultimately, and the real economy.

CSX's stock is down, even though it raised its estimates... operating income and growth rate... to 15-20% a year, from 13-15%.  That's a gigantic increase...  It raised it's earnings-per-share growth rate from 18-21% to 20-25%.  This is a big company growing at 25%... we don't get that...  and lowered the percentage of revenues taken up by operating expenses from the low 70% range, to the high 60% range.

CSX simply does not look like a company that's in trouble...  but people always worry that it's going to be hit by economic woes... and, by the way, the company did take a charge tonight, if you hit it up (i.e., look it up), for hurricane damage, but it did leave its earnings guidance unchanged.  Union Pacific (UNP), by the way, last night, also raised its guidance in a similar fashion to what CSX has done before.

I want to bring Michael Ward back on the show to explain how the company is doing, and to tell us what he thinks of the real economy...

Michael, welcome back to Mad Money...  

.  .  .  .  .

Jim's comments AFTER the interview:     CSX Corp. (CSX)... look, he's making them money.  He's doing the job.  Union Pacific Corp. (UNP) too.  Rails are still a place to be.  Amazing, given the fact that everything else is so weak.

   
 

Stock Snapshots - Includes all stocks mentioned above

 

 

Jim
Cramer's
rating on
this stock

STOCK
SYMBOL

Closing
price
that
day

Opening
price
next
day

Full Company Name/Comments
(see comments above for each)

CSX

56.90

na

CSX Corp. (CSX)

UNP

73.73

na

Union Pacific Corp. (UNP)

 

 

Go to the LIGHTNING ROUND from tonight's show here >>

See current quotes on Yahoo! Finance from tonight's show stocks here >>

Symbol keys:

A Charitable Trust stock. - An asterisk next to a stock symbol indicates that Jim mentioned it is a stock that he manages within
his charitable trust portfolio.  You can see the complete portfolio
of stocks here >>

Thumbs up - indicates he would buy the stock or, at the very least, not sell the stock.  We do our best to interpret Jim's opinion on stocks, as we think it is indicated by his comments during the show.  Please read his comments to decide for yourself.

Thumbs down - indicates he has said not to buy or to sell the stock, based on his comments  We do our best to interpret Jim's opinion on stocks, as we think it is indicated by his comments during the show.  Please read his comments to decide for yourself.

Back up the truck - indicated by Jim, when he says the stock is so good, that he would do a 'mon-back' on the stock... In other words, this is the sound someone would say to a truck driver, "Come on back... " as he is "backing up the truck" to load up on his cargo.  Translation for buying stocks:  This recommendation by Jim indicates that, after you do your own homework on the stock, you should feel comfortable loading up on it, as it is in a good position to be bought at this point.

Stumped. - Of the 2,000+ stocks that Jim Cramer has in his head, for which he has an informed opinion, he sometimes comes across a caller with a stock he does not know well enough to opine on...  He then indicates he is stumped and will have to come back to it, after he does some homework of his own on the stock.  This usually occurs during the Lightning Round, when Jim does not know in advance who is calling, or what their stock question is about.
 

 
Definitions of key phrases used by Jim, known as "Cramerisms":

Definition:   'Pull the trigger' is Jim's phrase for making the decision at that point to trade - either to 'buy' or to 'sell' (although he usually uses the phrase for buying), as if to say you should feel comfortable enough to make the final decision without looking back...

Definition:   'Ring the Register' is Jim's phrase for selling a stock, and making it a final sale, that you should not look back on.  Put it behind you.

Definition:  'Let It Come In' indicates how you may wait for it to pull back, or have the stock price come down briefly, as your chance (after letting it come in) to buy the rest of your position (i.e., total number of shares you own in that stock).

Definition:  'backing it up' or 'doing a 'mon-back' is Jim's phrase for the metaphor of backing up a truck to load up on a stock by buying it.  'Mon-back is short for the imaginary worker saying, 'Come on back...' as the truck is backing up to receive its load... Notice that we use the little truck icon to indicate where Jim has mentioned this.  Translation for buying stocks:  This recommendation by Jim indicates that, after you do your own homework on the stock, you should feel comfortable loading up on it, as it is in a good position to be bought at this point.
  See more "Cramerisms" & other financial phrases here >>
   
Helpful Websites:
  See the stocks currently known to be in Jim Cramer's
Charitable Trust at:

jim-cramer-charitable-trust-stocks.com

 
See the stocks currently known to be in Warren Buffett's portfolio
of stocks at:

warren-buffett-portfolio.com

 
  Stock Homework 101:   This is an excellent upcoming site that provides resources and links to help you do that homework that Jim Cramer recommends after hearing his suggestions...

StockHomework101.com

This site is coming soon.   Thank you.

 
  FastMoneyRecap:   This site will be a quick summary of recommendations made by the great Fast Money TV show crew, that will offer you a unique service, to compare their picks to Jim Cramer's past comments about those stocks.

Fast Money Recap - Trades for next day...

Compare these picks to Jim's comments for the same stocks.

 

 

   
   
  © 2005-2008 MadMoneyRecap.com ■ Important disclaimer: This site is not affiliated with Mr. James Cramer, and is not associated with any television networks or broadcasts. Please note that all thumbs up or thumbs down indicators are not always clearly indicated on the show and are interpreted by us as accurately as possible. Some comments have been edited for brevity and clarity, and extraneous material omitted.  Please rely on watching the show yourself, doing your own homework, and reading the text of the comments to draw your own conclusions. Also, data presented on this site should not be used to make investment decisions and accuracy, although attempted, cannot be guaranteed.  Please consult with your own financial advisor for professional advice.
 
 

 

 
       

Feedback   ■   Terms of use   ■   Privacy Policy  ■   Keep this site Free