General continuing comments
about how critical it is that
the proposed bailout plan is
approved as soon as possible.
See Opening Segment 2,
below...
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Jim:
Foreclosures... not
housing, not banks...
foreclosures... that's
what this Paulson plan
is about...
You're about to hear the
only unvarnished truth
you're ever going to
hear about this Paulson
plan right now, from the
administration's biggest
critic...
This plan is about
stopping foreclosures,
which are happening,
according to the Senate,
at about 10,000 a day in
our great country. This
is why this Paulson plan
is such a must... That's
why the stock market
tanks whenever it seems
stalled or watered
down... as it did today,
on word that nothing
might happen in time to
save this economy.
We've got to stop that.
This plan's got to pass.
If you're going to get a
turn in housing, which
is what the banks need
in order to have more
capital, so that this
country works... then
you need to get the
foreclosures down. They
are at the heart of
everything...
We are shrinking the
numbers of new homes
built... the new
homebuilders are
buying... they're
building a third of what
they did three years
ago... We are making
mortgage money available
through the
government-owned Fannie
Mae and Freddie Mac, so
people who are buying
new homes are not
canceling and leaving
their deposits, because
they can't sell their
old ones.
But we have yet to be
able to halt the worst
part of what's happening
in America...
foreclosures.
. . . .
.
Make no mistake about
it, the Paulson plan
should drastically
curtail foreclosures.
And the administration
has to make this point
over and over, because
Congress - as I watched
all day - simply doesn't
get it. They got all
sorts of things wrong.
Well, you know what...
they loved everything
all the way down. Now
they object?
Make no mistake about
it, with Paulson's plan,
we will get far fewer
foreclosures because,
once the government owns
the mortgages, it can
cut the interest rates
to zero, for heaven's
sake... because it wants
to keep people in their
homes, thereby drying up
the unsold home pool
that keeps burgeoning.
Do you know, whole
neighborhoods that were
for sale will now be a
buy... and the buyers,
cramped in their
mother-in-law's
apartments, will burst
out to buy... while
those who are stretched
will no longer feel like
walking away from their
homes... Walking away
from their homes...
something I said last
year...
The objections to the
plan are frivolous...
but we're going to tick
them down anyway... I
can't believe I'm
defending this, but I'm
right...
Here are five lies about
the plan... They were
told all day, and has
been told everyday for
three days... Five
lies... and why it
should not be
defeated...
. . . .
.
Let's take the big
objections head on...
Bailout Myth #1: It
doesn't address the real
problem of kicking
people out of homes.
That's totally wrong.
People are walking away,
and getting kicked out
of their homes, because
their homes keep
dropping in value and it
makes good economic
sense to leave.
What's the cause of
that?...
Too many foreclosures.
You get housing to stop
depreciating, and
foreclosures will stop.
We'll be home free.
. . . .
.
Bailout Myth #2: The
plan costs too much.
Hey, if the plan works -
and I think it will - it
will even cost money. We
could make money!
Because the mortgages we
will be buying will be
made whole, as housing
will stop depreciating.
If we stop house price
depreciation, these
people will want to stay
in their house...
In fact, I believe this
plan will make us
money...
The government's going
to take equity stakes
where it can to win. I
worked at Goldman
Sachs... If there's
anything Paulson knows
how to do... ruthlessly,
I have to admit, and not
that well-liked... it's
make money. Paulson
knows how to make money.
That's what he did all
his life...
Why shouldn't we trust
him to make money for
us?... He'll make money
for us. I'm banking with
him.
We should share jointly
in the appreciation of
both the bank stocks
that we buy from, and
the mortgages in the
optimum plan. I think
he'll work that out for
us.
. . . .
.
Bailout Myth #3: The
executives will make too
much money.
Wow, okay... stop
trading... You know
what? Create an
executive compensation
board... Cut the pay...
Or make the execs waive
their salary for 2009,
if they participate...
They're all rich guys.
We all hate them anyway,
right?... You know we're
going to get "show"
trials in the end
anyway...
. . . .
.
Bailout Myth #4: Once
we discover the prices
the government pays, it
will force banks to take
big writedowns they
can't handle.
How many times have we
heard that today?...
Please! First, the
responsible banks, like
Wells Fargo (WFC),
Bank of America (BAC),
and
US Bancorp (USB)...
they've already written
down the loans, because
that's what you do, you
know... You don't hide
them under the rug...
They're going to be
helped, not hurt, and we
need their money. We
need them to loan... If
other banks can't take
the hit, we should look
the other way for now.
Yes, yes... forbearance!
We had forbearance in
1990, and it saved the
banking system. Those in
real trouble shouldn't
exist anyway... they
should be allowed to go
under. The FDIC will
seize their deposits,
and sell them to
outfits... yes... like
Goldman Sachs and Morgan
Stanley... that need
deposits and don't want
bad loans. This is
actually why I like
those two stocks so
much... I love those two
stocks and the media's
so dead wrong about the
new changes in their
structure... it's why
I'm buying them for
my charitable trust... The media's
dead wrong. The media
would have you believe,
by the way... just read
through... from my
buddies at The Wall
Street Journal 70-80
times a day... They
would have you believe
that, if Lehman had
joined the Federal
Reserve system, and
become a commercial
bank, instead of being
an independent
investment house, it
would have hurt
Lehman... Guess what...
being an investment
house killed them... The
same would have happened
to Morgan Stanly and
Goldman Sachs... which
are valued at half what
commercial banks are
worth. It could now
increase their value
when they buy deposits
the FDIC has seized from
banks, who turn out to
be lying about the value
of their mortgage
portfolios. Mark my
words... given the fact
that Goldman's got a
clean book... it's 89 to
100... given the fact
that Goldman Sachs will
be a commercial bank...
it will be the cheapest
commercial bank on a
price-to-book (value)...
Goldman will not be
independent next year at
this time.
Citigroup (C)
will buy them, okay...
that's how cheap it is.
. . . .
.
Bailout Myth #5: We
don't need to be in a
rush.
Alright, how about those
guys?... We've got to
deliberate... Oh yeah,
let's put that fire
department on hold while
Rome burns... and we've
got a real Rome burning
here.
Now, this is the biggest
joke of all... Last
night,
Washington Mutual (WM)
- the largest thrift by
deposits - had its debt
downgraded again. We
need this legislated to
ensure, if it happens,
that the government can
sell the deposits of a
Washington Mutual to a
Goldman or Morgan... and
put the mortgages into
our resolution trust.
Otherwise, they simply
would overwhelm the FDIC
and cause bank runs.
When did we have bank
runs last? The 1930s...
We need this, if only to
deal with Washington
Mutual.
Here's the bottom
line...
. . . .
.
The Bottom Line!:
The Plan... It's awful... it
stinks... it's nasty... and it's far
better than anything else. I am
betting that, once we have real prices
and a floor, the government may not even
buy that many mortgages. The
private sector will want in. I'm
betting the private sector will be
anxious to buy, with the federal
government backstop underneath. I
am betting that those banks - split into
the good and bad banks - Mr. Wachovia,
Bob Steel - will thrive, and have the
money to be able to fund both sides of
the bank, because the federal government
must take a stake in the bad bank.
This plan must be passed, if we are to
avoid the Great Depression 2. For
three straight nights, I have come out
here and told you to sell for the simple
reason that I fear this plan will not
pass. You fortunately could have
sold into strength on Friday, on Monday
morning and, bizarrely, both today at
the opening and at 3pm. I say
bizarrely, because look, this market is
horrible. I say it to everyone on
the Street... this is the worst market
I've seen since 1987. It's worse
than that. It's the legacy we
endure with the Lehman bankruptcy, the
AIG seizure, and the near destruction of
the near-innocent, well-run investment
banks... Goldman Sachs and Morgan
Stanley... as hedge funds deserted them
and no other banks would lend them
money. Alright, that's just too
much to handle. Without the plan,
it might just turn out to be a cub
play... meaning the children of
bears are taking this apart, as the Mama
Bear and Papa Bear train their kids, on
this oh-so-easy market to crush, even
with these short rules. This Plan
must be passed, and passed now, or I am
giving you a prediction of a sequel of
the Great Depression. If you
believe I had the foresight to predict
the foreclosures, the closures of the
firms, the big unemployment jump, when I
ranted last year... Believe
me, that wasn't easy. Every single
establishment guy thought I was a
complete nut and a kook... every one...
The New York Post, Matt Lauer...
then I'm asking you to trust me.
If this Plan doesn't get approved, then
we're going to have a Great Depression,
and it's got to be approved immediately.
It should be approved this week, before
- and this is going to happen imminently
- the next big bank failure occurs, that
causes you to think, I've got to get in
line...
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Jim: With
all the time we've spent talking
about the banks and Paulson's
rescue plan, and how I think we
could get a recession, if not a
depression, if it fails, because
corporate credit would freeze
up... I don't want to
ignore what's going on in the
real economy right now... The
one where people make things,
move them around, send them
overseas, and sell them...
unlike the financials where
money is created out of thin
air...
So how is the real economy
doing?...
I always look to the
transports... My favorite
transport,
CSX Corp. (CSX)...
my favorite railroad stock,
headed by my favorite man,
Michael Ward.
I think that his company is a
great thermometer for the real
U.S. economy, because it ships a
bunch of things all over the
country, so we're going to ask
him about that. Even as
the stock has been targeted by
hedge funds gone wild...
they wanted to depose the best
CEO in the railroad business...
but that's in the past.
Hedge funds are responsible... I
mean, I'm not a conspirator but,
remember, I was a hedge fund
manager. I know... they're
blamed for a lot.
The last time I had Michael Ward
on the show,
on August 21st, CSX was at
$61.96. Now it's at
$56.90. Of course, the
market's been horrible. In
the interim, the company raised
guidance in 2008, from
$3.40-$3.60 (earnings per share)
to $3.65-$3.75.
Pricing was up 6%. Fuel
prices stabilized. And,
since there's a 60-day lag
between the price of CSX's fuel,
and the fuel surcharge, this is
one of those companies that's
making money off being able to
charge for higher oil prices,
even as oil prices have actually
come down.
I didn't buy, yesterday, the big
move in oil... it was phony.
It's back down today. Now
it's starting to be right...
but higher oil prices are one
thing that could hurt CSX
ultimately, and the real
economy.
CSX's stock is down, even though
it raised its estimates...
operating income and growth
rate... to 15-20% a year, from
13-15%. That's a gigantic
increase... It raised it's
earnings-per-share growth rate
from 18-21% to 20-25%.
This is a big company growing at
25%... we don't get that...
and lowered the percentage of
revenues taken up by operating
expenses from the low 70% range,
to the high 60% range.
CSX simply does not look like a
company that's in trouble...
but people always worry that
it's going to be hit by economic
woes... and, by the way, the
company did take a charge
tonight, if you hit it up (i.e.,
look it up), for hurricane
damage, but it did leave its
earnings guidance unchanged.
Union Pacific (UNP),
by the way, last night, also
raised its guidance in a similar
fashion to what CSX has done
before.
I want to bring Michael Ward
back on the show to explain how
the company is doing, and to
tell us what he thinks of the
real economy...
Michael, welcome back to Mad
Money...
. . . .
.
Jim's comments AFTER the interview: CSX Corp. (CSX)...
look, he's making them money. He's
doing the job.
Union Pacific Corp. (UNP)
too. Rails are still a place to
be. Amazing, given the fact that
everything else is so weak.
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Definitions of key phrases
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"Cramerisms":
Definition: 'Pull the
trigger' is Jim's phrase for making
the decision at that point to trade -
either to 'buy' or
to 'sell' (although he
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enough to make the final
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Definition: 'Ring
the Register' is Jim's phrase for
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it a final sale, that you
should not look back on.
Put it behind you.
Definition:'Let It Come In' indicates how you
may wait for it to pull back, or have the
stock price come down briefly, as your
chance (after letting it come in) to buy
the rest of your position (i.e., total
number of shares you own in that stock).
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