Wednesday, 09/24/08
Posted 09/24/08,  08:17 am ET

(Scroll down to see Jim's comments below)

 
 
Today's date:  Wednesday, 09/24/08

  Dow Jones: 10,825   - 29
  NASDAQ:   2,155   + 2
  S&P 500:   1,185    - 2
 
 
 
 
 
First Segment
 
See complete recommendation comments below...
 
Opening Segment 2
Title:
'Spice Market'

.  .  .  .  .

Featured Stock(s):

McCormick & Co. Inc. (MKC)

See MKC's official investor relations' site here.
See the Yahoo! Finance profile for MKC here.

See Opening Segment 2, below...

 
After this segment, you can see Jim's Lightning Round picks here...
 

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Jim:     It's time to stock up on our "nuclear winter" plays... the companies that will still make money even in a world where the rescue plan fails... and our financial system, and then our economy, fails along with it... as Hank Paulson talks about the need for LIBOR and credit default swaps to be better...

Look, without this plan, we're not talking about the Street... we're talking about the road...

In this environment, investors are flocking, not to banks, but to food banks...  stocks like McCormick & Co. Inc. (MKC), the biggest maker of spices in the world.  There will be a bull market in spice.  MKC has got flavor...

Very simply, MKC is a play on fewer people eating at restaurants... more meals at home.  The company is the #1 name when it comes to herbs, spices and now marinades, ever since it acquired Lawry's...

MKC has 50% of the market for spices in the U.S. and France, 40% market share in the U.K.  These guys really own this.  Since Europe is experiencing an economic downturn too, you're going to see more and more people cooking their own meals over in Europe, as well as in America.  It's a simple equation...  home cooking equals MKC.

This is the spice of money, not just life...

Without a bailout plan, we're going to see a lot more people eating at home...  Some are going to have to use MKC to spice up Alpo...   To those who balk at eating dog food, I say, come on, don't knock it until you try it (yuck!)...

And, even with the plan, we'll still be in a world of skyrocketing unemployment, too many foreclosures, and a slowing domestic and global economy.  You don't raise numbers because of the plan.  People are feeling squeezed, and food is one of the places where they're trying to save money.  Cookbooks, by the way, are on fire too.

Remember, without this Invest in America plan... at least that's what I would have called it... as opposed to the "reduced LIBOR" Plan that (Treasury Secretary) Paulson calls it... we are talking stone age.  And, even in that environment, you still have to spice what you kill and grill...

According to a survey from NPD group... that's a market research company... fewer people are buying luxury foods, and more people are buying store brand items... which works for MKC, okay.  I mean, that's what you've got to do here... because it's also the largest producer of private-label seasonings in North America... remember that Ralcorp (RAH) idea that we had (see that show recommendation for RAH from September 19th here), the king of private-label cereals that we recommended last week.  MKC works for the same reasons.  The same survey showed that lower prices were the #1 most important factor for 37% of consumers, when deciding where to shop for food.  That's up from 31% last year... and well ahead of the second most-often cited factor, location.

People may be going out less, and buying cheaper food, but that doesn't mean they want it to taste like Purina Cat Chow... which is why they're going to buy more spices, hence MKC.

The company gets 80% of its operating profit from consumer sales, although it also serves 9 of the top 10 food service chains, and 13 of the top 20 leading food and beverage companies.  I want you to think of
McDonald's (MCD*), Wendy's (WEN), Yum! Brands (YUM), Chili's, Anheuser-Busch (BUD), and Pepsi (PEP)...

With 50% of the spice market, and control of both branded and private-label spices, no one else even comes close to MKC. 

This one isn't just a play on more people eating at home either... It's also a healthier-eating play...  You can go to the McCormick Spice Institute [here]...  Now I would have gone to college there, but I got deferred...  and see how they're aiming to educate customers about how their herbs and spices help with common health problems like inflammation and weight management.

Even though MKC is part of the trade down from restaurant to home eating, its branding itself more as a trade up, by launching gourmet recipes by Cat Cora, the current Iron Chef, on its website...

Now, I'm sticking my neck out here, because MKC reports its third quarter tomorrow.  I am absolutely telling you... please, do not buy this after-hours so you can get in ahead of the quarter.   That's wrong.  That's not what I'm trying to do.

See, if the quarter's good, and the stock goes up, I don't even want you to buy it. 

What would a good quarter look like?...

The Street's looking for 48 cents a share of earnings this quarter, and sales of $781 million... with consensus of a full year, at $2.14 a share.  If the numbers come in more than a couple of pennies worse than that - or "shy" as we call it - all bets are off.  Forget that I even mentioned MKC, and certainly don't buy it.

But this is why I'm really doing the piece...

If the quarter's better than expected, and the stock goes slightly higher, you're going to get a chance.  But, in this market... and this is it... this is the real deal with this market...  in this market, everything is hated.  That's why I'm doing this tonight before everything goes down at some point...

So you need to wait for MKC to do just that...  It could report a really great number and go down anyway...   I'm talking about it today, because it's in the right spot.  I want you to be ready to buy it, if the market collapses, because the Plan dies, and this is the one to buy, because it gets pulled down by all the other stocks.

Regardless of what happens tomorrow, you should wait for MKC to come lower.  You could pull the trigger then.  One thing we can count on, in this volatile and violent market, it's going to push stocks down, even good ones like MKC...

This one is not a Red Hot Chili Pepper...  It's more like parsley, sage and rosemary...  you've got thyme!  I couldn't resist...

When the buying opportunity comes, you'll be in good hands, because this company's very shareholder friendly.  It's got a cozy 2.3% yield.  Over the last five years, MKC's returned 86% of its cash from operations to shareholders... either in the form of dividends or buybacks.

Last year, they bought back $157 million in stock, although now they're buyback is running low, with just $49 million left in the repurchase authorization... that was on February 29th...

Hey, this is a company that does not need mortgage finance to crank up to make the numbers...

The bottom line...  

.  .  .  .  .

The Bottom Line!:     Fewer people eating out, thanks to this awful economy means more people cooking at home.   McCormick & Co. Inc. (MKC) controls half of the spice market in this country.  Do you know what it reminds me of?  The old Dutch East India Company...  I have to believe it makes more money, as more people stay at home.

 

   
 

Stock Snapshots - Includes all stocks mentioned above

 

 

Jim
Cramer's
rating on
this stock

STOCK
SYMBOL

Closing
price
that
day

Opening
price
next
day

Full Company Name/Comments
(see comments above for each)

MKC

38.50

na

McCormick & Co. Inc. (MKC)

 

 

     
   

 

 



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Second Segment
 
See complete recommendation comments below...
Opening Segment 2
Title:
'Paulson's Pitch'

.  .  .  .  .

Featured Stock(s):

General continuing comments about how critical it is that the proposed bailout plan is approved as soon as possible.


 
After this segment, you can see Jim's Lightning Round picks here...


General continuing comments about how critical it is that the proposed bailout plan is approved as soon as possible. 

See Monday's Paulson Plan comments from Jim here
...

See Tuesday's Paulson Plan comments from Jim here
...

.  .  .  .  .

The Bottom Line!:     We need to stop treating this plan like it's a bailout plan for Wall Street, buying worthless mortgages.  We've got to start facing the facts, as I see them.  This is about avoiding the financial collapse, by buying worthwhile mortgages that will come back.  If we don't get it, it will be impossible for you to take down a mortgage, or borrow money for college... to pay for your retirement... for years... maybe for generations... if we don't do something to get off the road to the next Great Depression.  Call it like it is... invest in America...  invest in America... because, if we don't, I think this country's headed back to the stone age.

   
 

Stock Snapshots - Includes all stocks mentioned above

 

 

Jim
Cramer's
rating on
this stock

STOCK
SYMBOL

Closing
price
that
day

Opening
price
next
day

Full Company Name/Comments
(see comments above for each)

na

na

na

na

 

 

     

 

 

Go to the LIGHTNING ROUND from tonight's show here >>

See current quotes on Yahoo! Finance from tonight's show stocks here >>

Symbol keys:

A Charitable Trust stock. - An asterisk next to a stock symbol indicates that Jim mentioned it is a stock that he manages within
his charitable trust portfolio.  You can see the complete portfolio
of stocks here >>

Thumbs up - indicates he would buy the stock or, at the very least, not sell the stock.  We do our best to interpret Jim's opinion on stocks, as we think it is indicated by his comments during the show.  Please read his comments to decide for yourself.

Thumbs down - indicates he has said not to buy or to sell the stock, based on his comments  We do our best to interpret Jim's opinion on stocks, as we think it is indicated by his comments during the show.  Please read his comments to decide for yourself.

Back up the truck - indicated by Jim, when he says the stock is so good, that he would do a 'mon-back' on the stock... In other words, this is the sound someone would say to a truck driver, "Come on back... " as he is "backing up the truck" to load up on his cargo.  Translation for buying stocks:  This recommendation by Jim indicates that, after you do your own homework on the stock, you should feel comfortable loading up on it, as it is in a good position to be bought at this point.

Stumped. - Of the 2,000+ stocks that Jim Cramer has in his head, for which he has an informed opinion, he sometimes comes across a caller with a stock he does not know well enough to opine on...  He then indicates he is stumped and will have to come back to it, after he does some homework of his own on the stock.  This usually occurs during the Lightning Round, when Jim does not know in advance who is calling, or what their stock question is about.
 

 
Definitions of key phrases used by Jim, known as "Cramerisms":

Definition:   'Pull the trigger' is Jim's phrase for making the decision at that point to trade - either to 'buy' or to 'sell' (although he usually uses the phrase for buying), as if to say you should feel comfortable enough to make the final decision without looking back...

Definition:   'Ring the Register' is Jim's phrase for selling a stock, and making it a final sale, that you should not look back on.  Put it behind you.

Definition:  'Let It Come In' indicates how you may wait for it to pull back, or have the stock price come down briefly, as your chance (after letting it come in) to buy the rest of your position (i.e., total number of shares you own in that stock).

Definition:  'backing it up' or 'doing a 'mon-back' is Jim's phrase for the metaphor of backing up a truck to load up on a stock by buying it.  'Mon-back is short for the imaginary worker saying, 'Come on back...' as the truck is backing up to receive its load... Notice that we use the little truck icon to indicate where Jim has mentioned this.  Translation for buying stocks:  This recommendation by Jim indicates that, after you do your own homework on the stock, you should feel comfortable loading up on it, as it is in a good position to be bought at this point.
  See more "Cramerisms" & other financial phrases here >>
   
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