See MKC's official
investor relations' site
here.
See the Yahoo!
Finance profile for
MKC
here.
See Opening Segment 2,
below...
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Jim:
It's time to stock
up on our "nuclear
winter" plays... the
companies that will
still make money even in
a world where the rescue
plan fails... and our
financial system, and
then our economy, fails
along with it... as Hank
Paulson talks about the
need for LIBOR and
credit default swaps to
be better...
Look, without this plan,
we're not talking about
the Street... we're
talking about the
road...
In this environment,
investors are flocking,
not to banks, but to
food banks...
stocks like
McCormick & Co. Inc. (MKC),
the biggest maker of
spices in the world.
There will be a bull
market in spice.
MKC has got flavor...
Very simply, MKC is a
play on fewer people
eating at restaurants...
more meals at home.
The company is the #1
name when it comes to
herbs, spices and now
marinades, ever since it
acquired Lawry's...
MKC has 50% of the
market for spices in the
U.S. and France, 40%
market share in the U.K.
These guys really own
this. Since Europe
is experiencing an
economic downturn too,
you're going to see more
and more people cooking
their own meals over in
Europe, as well as in
America. It's a
simple equation...
home cooking equals MKC.
This is the spice of
money, not just life...
Without a bailout plan,
we're going to see a lot
more people eating at
home... Some are
going to have to use MKC
to spice up Alpo...
To those who balk at
eating dog food, I say,
come on, don't knock it
until you try it
(yuck!)...
And, even with the plan,
we'll still be in a
world of skyrocketing
unemployment, too many
foreclosures, and a
slowing domestic and
global economy.
You don't raise numbers
because of the plan.
People are feeling
squeezed, and food is
one of the places where
they're trying to save
money. Cookbooks,
by the way, are
on fire too.
Remember, without this
Invest in America
plan... at least that's
what I would have called
it... as opposed to the
"reduced LIBOR" Plan
that (Treasury
Secretary) Paulson calls
it... we are talking
stone age. And,
even in that
environment, you still
have to spice what you
kill and grill...
According to a survey
from NPD group... that's
a market research
company... fewer people
are buying luxury foods,
and more people are
buying store brand
items... which works for
MKC, okay. I mean,
that's what you've got
to do here... because
it's also the largest
producer of
private-label seasonings
in North America...
remember that Ralcorp
(RAH)
idea that we had (see
that show recommendation
for RAH from September
19th
here), the king of
private-label cereals
that we recommended last
week. MKC
works for the same
reasons. The same
survey showed that lower
prices were the #1 most
important factor for 37%
of consumers, when
deciding where to shop
for food. That's
up from 31% last year...
and well ahead of the
second most-often cited
factor, location.
People may be going out
less, and buying cheaper
food, but that doesn't
mean they want it to
taste like Purina Cat
Chow... which is why
they're going to buy
more spices, hence MKC.
The company gets 80% of
its operating profit
from consumer sales,
although it also serves
9 of the top 10 food
service chains, and 13
of the top 20 leading
food and beverage
companies. I want
you to think of
McDonald's
(MCD*),
Wendy's (WEN),
Yum! Brands (YUM),
Chili's,
Anheuser-Busch (BUD),
and
Pepsi (PEP)...
With 50% of the spice
market, and control of
both branded and
private-label spices, no
one else even comes
close to MKC.
This one isn't just a
play on more people
eating at home either...
It's also a
healthier-eating play...
You can go to the
McCormick Spice
Institute [here]...
Now I would have gone to
college there, but I got
deferred... and
see how they're aiming
to educate customers
about how their herbs
and spices help with
common health problems
like inflammation and
weight management.
Even though MKC is part
of the trade down from
restaurant to home
eating, its branding
itself more as a trade
up, by launching gourmet
recipes by Cat Cora,
the current Iron Chef,
on its website...
Now, I'm sticking my
neck out here, because
MKC reports its third
quarter tomorrow.
I am absolutely telling
you... please, do not
buy this after-hours so
you can get in ahead of
the quarter.
That's wrong.
That's not what I'm
trying to do.
See, if the quarter's
good, and the stock goes
up, I don't even want
you to buy it.
What would a good
quarter look like?...
The Street's looking for
48 cents a share of
earnings this quarter,
and sales of $781
million... with
consensus of a full
year, at $2.14 a share.
If the numbers come in
more than a couple of
pennies worse than that
- or "shy" as we call it
- all bets are off.
Forget that I even
mentioned MKC, and
certainly don't buy it.
But this is why I'm
really doing the
piece...
If the quarter's better
than expected, and the
stock goes slightly
higher, you're going to
get a chance. But,
in this market... and
this is it... this is
the real deal with this
market... in this
market, everything is
hated. That's why
I'm doing this tonight
before everything goes
down at some point...
So you need to wait for
MKC to do just that...
It could report a really
great number and go down
anyway...
I'm talking about it
today, because it's in
the right spot. I
want you to be ready to
buy it, if the market
collapses, because the
Plan dies, and this is
the one to buy, because
it gets pulled down by
all the other stocks.
Regardless of what
happens tomorrow, you
should wait for MKC to
come lower. You
could
pull the trigger then.
One thing we can count
on, in this volatile and
violent market, it's
going to push stocks
down, even good ones
like MKC...
This one is not a Red
Hot Chili Pepper...
It's more like parsley,
sage and rosemary...
you've got thyme!
I couldn't resist...
When the buying
opportunity comes,
you'll be in good hands,
because this company's
very shareholder
friendly. It's got
a cozy 2.3% yield.
Over the last five
years, MKC's returned
86% of its cash from
operations to
shareholders... either
in the form of dividends
or buybacks.
Last year, they bought
back $157 million in
stock, although now
they're buyback is
running low, with just
$49 million left in the
repurchase
authorization... that
was on February 29th...
Hey, this is a company
that does not need
mortgage finance to
crank up to make the
numbers...
The bottom line...
. . . .
.
The Bottom Line!:
Fewer people eating out, thanks to
this awful economy means more people
cooking at home.
McCormick & Co. Inc. (MKC)
controls half of the spice market in
this country. Do you know what it
reminds me of? The old Dutch East
India Company... I have to believe
it makes more money, as more people stay
at home.
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Second
Segment
See complete
recommendation
comments
below...
Opening
Segment 2
Title:
'Paulson's
Pitch'
. . . .
.
Featured
Stock(s):
General continuing comments
about how critical it is that
the proposed bailout plan is
approved as soon as possible.
After this segment, you
can see Jim's Lightning
Round picks
here...
General continuing comments
about how critical it is that
the proposed bailout plan is
approved as soon as possible.
See Monday's Paulson Plan
comments from Jim
here...
See Tuesday's Paulson Plan
comments from Jim
here...
. . . .
.
The Bottom Line!:
We need to stop treating this plan
like it's a bailout plan for Wall
Street, buying worthless mortgages.
We've got to start facing the facts, as
I see them. This is about avoiding
the financial collapse, by buying
worthwhile mortgages that will come
back. If we don't get it, it will
be impossible for you to take down a
mortgage, or borrow money for college...
to pay for your retirement... for
years... maybe for generations... if we
don't do something to get off the road
to the next Great Depression. Call
it like it is... invest in America...
invest in America... because, if we
don't, I think this country's headed
back to the stone age.
■
Stock Snapshots - Includes
all stocks mentioned above
■
Jim
Cramer's
rating on
this stock
STOCK
SYMBOL
Closing
price
that
day
Opening
price
next
day
Full Company
Name/Comments
(see comments above for
each)
na
na
na
na
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