Friday, 12/07/07
Posted 12/09/07,  05:54 pm

(Scroll down to see Jim's comments below)

 
 
Today's date:  Friday, 12/07/07

  Dow Jones: 13,625  +5
  NASDAQ:   2,706   -2
  S&P 500:   1,504   -2
 
 
 
 
 
First Segment
 
Opening Segment 1 Title: 'Cream Of The Crop'

.  .  .  .  .

Featured Stock(s): Mosaic (MOS)
Agrium (AGU)
Potash Corp. (POT)
Monsanto Co. (MON)
Bunge (BG)


See Opening Segment 2, below...

        
All week, I've been giving you a special free preview of the five long-term bull markets that I highlight in my new book... It's called Stay Mad For Life.

And, among the many other useful parts of the book, I've included my five favorite bull markets that are going to last...

We've been through four of them... aerospace and defense, oil and oil service, minerals and mining, and infrastructure.

The picks I've used to illustrate the bull markets this week have all had remarkable runs... at least after I mentioned them... so we may have reached a bizarre intersection between personal aggrandizement for me, and profit for you!

So, today, I'm going to tell you about Bull Market #5...

.  .  .  .  .


It's agriculture...

The first thing you need to know about with this bull market is that it has nothing... absolutely nothing... to do with food! Ag today is about two things... Energy independence and the ridiculous political dependence of our presidential candidates in both political parties, on the sparsely populated state of Iowa!

Agriculture, these days, is about raising less corn, and more energy!...

Farmers are the new wildcatters. Seeds are biotech-derived oil deposits... Tractors... well, they're oil rigs. Fertilizers... drill bits.

If the old show, Dallas, were to be re-introduced, it would be about planting corn and soybeans!

As long as oil stays expensive, you're going to have a fabulous umbrella... it's about agriculture. And, as long as Iowa stays important, things are simply going to accelerate.

This ag business is a great business, with corn prices looking up next year... Hey, they're planting so much, and yet they still aren't planting enough to meet the demand... And, for most farmers, congress is practically guaranteeing a bumper crop of profits. How many other industries have congress going their way?...

The best part of this ag bull market is that it's still in its infancy!...

We'll look back and say, that was easy... There should be years and years and years left of gains in ag... Or, as I call it, the new oil service...

If you want to learn more about them, maybe you pick up, indeed,
Stay Mad For Life...

.  .  .  .  .


But there is one problem with ag right now...

With every other one of my five bull markets, I have picked out a stock and recommended it for right now, but the ag stocks are all at their 52-week or near there. I do not want to be a buyer at these prices... although I was heartened by the fact that Deere (DE) was down $2.38 today...

Now the long-term story is fabulous but, if I'm any judge - and I think I'm a great judge - the market will give you a better price if you wait two or three weeks for a pullback and then buy the stocks... Hey listen, if the Fed does something stupid - and given that they are back to knowing nothing - it sure could happen. These stocks could come down on their own, so please wait for a pullback before you buy, buy, buy...

Don't get me wrong. No one has pushed this story harder than I have... And, if you owned these stocks, it has paid off...

Deere (DE), 88% gain so far to date... remember, tractors are oil rigs.

Monsanto (MON), a biotech company that designs seeds... and I think of biotech for the new oil. It's up 105%.

Bunge (BG), which makes soy... think of that as light sweet crude, compared to corn, which is thick and harder to refine... BG is up 73%.

.  .  .  .  .


Fertilizer has been the biggest winner this year, and the #1 name in the group?...

It's Mosaic (MOS)!

They make phosphates for fertilizers... they make your drill bits... It's up 268% for the year.

Agrium (AGU)?... Holy cow, up 98%! What's not to like?

And Potash (POT) was up 169%...

Can I just tell you, these are enormous gains! Gains that you've already gotten a big piece of, if you've been listening to me at all... But, if you just tuned in today, don't worry about it. There is still some good news coming...

All of these gains have been driven by demand... demand that is mostly being fueled by corn and soy... as energy crops. But also give some credit to the developing world, right?... Like China... people eating better. They like meat in China. Don't forget, when you like meat, what you really do is like corn, because you've got to feed that cow something, and they feed them great. It's just something that's been adding to the momentum behind ag.

Food shortages abound worldwide. Current plantings can't meet demand. But the real story is that ag is the new oil and oil service. It's a story that's so good, you can't buy too late in this thing. A long-term bull market... and, while you've missed somewhat of a move, you haven't missed the whole move...

Now, it would be insane to buy the ag stocks at these prices, when I'm thinking you will get a pullback... even though, over the long term, I do expect the ag complex to go much, much higher.

 

.  .  .  .  .

The Bottom Line!:   Ag is right, okay?... This is right... It's maybe just not right at these prices, although Deere & Co. (DE), down $2.38 does intrigue....   DE, Monsanto Co. (MON), Bunge (BG), fertilizer...  Wait a few weeks or, if the Fed screws up... then you've got your entry point...



[See Jim's 2nd Opening Segment stock picks below... ]

 

 

 



See all of tonight's stocks' latest quotes on Yahoo! Finance


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Stock Snapshots - Includes all stocks mentioned above

 

 

 

Jim
Cramer's
rating on
this stock

STOCK
SYMBOL

Closing
price
that
day

Opening
price
next
day

Full Company Name/Comments
(see comments above for each)

DE

88.11

na

Deere & Co. (DE)

MOS

79.63

na

Mosaic (MOS)

AGU

63.49

na

Agrium (AGU)

POT

129.19

na

Potash Corp. of Saskatchewan (POT)

MON

106.24

na

Monsanto Co. (MON)

BG

123.84

na

Bunge (BG)

 


Netflix, Inc.


 
 
Second Segment