Update! :: Just bought new position in TEVA Pharmaceuticals, and just sold all of ESRX!
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Jim:     Everyone's buzzing about the peak of that Nasdaq 10 years ago... the anniversary of the horrible dot-com collapse... and how brutal that selloff from the 5,000 level was... a slide that ultimately took us to 11,008... before we bottomed... a decline of 4,024 points... and we're still trying to recover from it. And we remain 2,764 points below that high point, even after this rally, where we closed at 2,368...

Now that the anniversary of the tech top is almost upon us, we're once again in a place where the market just won't quit... with the Dow moving up again today. I mean, no different right... this time, it added 45 points, the S&P advanced 0.4%, its highest since October 2nd of 2008.

Just as disturbing to the skeptics... speculation seems to be running rampant. The situation seems kind of similar, and we have to ask if now is the time to sell, like it was time to sell tech back in March of 2000. And, as someone who nailed that top almost to the day... who told people to sell, sell, sell the Nasdaq and move into bonds... something I was doing at my hedge fund at the time... right after riding the rally up into the teeth of the peak, I'm just the guy arrogant enough to think he has the answer to that question.

We have had some remarkable runs in some Nasdaq stocks lately. There is no denying it. But no one's really drawing the parallels... I mean, think about it. You certainly could... FFIV, that speedster of the internet, up 240%, AKAM, up 92%... JDSU, 407%?... CREE, 281%... and, of course, AAPL jammin'... 164%.

So I think we have to ask about the similarities to the tech top we ran into 10 years ago, as well as the differences...

Now, nobody likes to come in on a gallop... chasin'... Just like 10 years ago, we have had huge gains, and I do think it would be irresponsible not to take something off the table. At the old days at the hedge fund, we would say, "let's schnitzel a little"... schnitzel meaning, let's cut back a little. Congress appears to be in meltdown mode, desperately trying to pass anything, just so they can say they passed something. If you are a bull, well, you've got to hope it's not healthcare. We also seem to be stalled under that key Dow 10,725 level... and, if we get up to 10,725, there's no assurance we will rally through it, because we will be so overextended at that point.

I think it's very risky to buy at these prices. I think ringing the register is the sound strategy, as this is a moment where you have to protect what you've made... protect your profits.

Compared to where we were 10 years ago, I know that as late as February of 2000, I was still cheerleading, despite the heat I got because I still was, I still caught another 1,000 Nasdaq points before I exited. Think about it...

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