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Tuesday,
January 13, 2009
(Cont'd from
above)...
Jim (cont'd):
And now that stocks
have come back down,
I say it last… the
world is making some
sense again… how on
earth can so many
people be shocked
that
Citigroup (C)
and
even
JPMorgan (JPM*)…
could have enormous
loses… you have got
to be kidding me…
was anyone truly
surprised by that…
the banks… hey, let
you in a secret,
this is between you
and me… the banks
are having a rough
time… I mean
seriously,
astonishing, I mean
for the record… the
more I dig the more
I think that both
Cramer fave and
ActionAlertsPlus.com
name,
Morgan Stanley (MS*),
and Citigroup could
both be winners…
from the joint Smith
Barney/Morgan deal
announced tonight…
because no longer
wall of shamer
Vikram Pandit
actually kept some
upside of the joint
venture, that is
going to, I think
succeed handily.
No everyone is
shocked… shocked
that tech is doing
so poorly… and even
semi-conductor
equipment company
KLA-Tencor Corp. (KLAC), which
preannounced crummy
numbers last night…
is doing badly… uh,
come on… is there
really anyone out
there who truly
believed that any
semi-conductor
equipment or any
semi-conductor
company could
actually be doing
well here?…. And how
is shocking…. that
executives at
Seagate (STX)
are dropping
like flies… why
would anyone in
their right mind
think that the
cut-throat disc
drive industry… was
doing okay… are they
nuts.
What about the
oils?… Oh my god,
shocking amazement
yesterday that Trans
Ocean, the largest
off shore driller,
was starting to see
cancellation
projects… hey, I am
sorry who thought
that with crude
under $40... the oil
companies would
still be willing to
spend $700,000 a day
running a rig…. it
took just one
cancellation to
wreck the house of
cards… pricing in
that business..
Are you ready for
this one? … How
about the so called
shock of Alcoa… the
way I see it the
single worst run
major industrial
company and the
worst metal scoop of
the era… and people
are surprised are
doing really badly…
Alcoa it can wait
forever… Or what
about Meryl Lynch’s
downgrade of
Corning Inc. (GLW),
unbelievable… or
maybe just
reasonable given how
poorly Corning’s end
markets are
doing…there was some
real value
subtracted.
Hey, how about
retail… we decided
it was collectively
really bad… but we
thought, well, we
are individually
shocked at the poor
numbers from
individual
retailers… wake up…
how in the world can
that be… that people
think that retailers
collectively are
doing great… but
individual retailers
are doing badly… do
you think they were
just low balling…
no, they are
desperate… even as
their shareholders
bid them up… I mean
look at
Best Buy (BBY),
everyone says that
Best Buy had to be
having a good
quarter… I mean
somehow the market
decided that… they
decided it was the
last bad quarter,
even though there
was absolutely no
reason to think
that… hey, can we
right now… please
ban the phrase much
worse than expected…
ladies and gentleman
expect the worse,
you are going to get
it.
The only thing that
should shock and
amaze us in this
market is if anybody
out there honestly
believes that any
industrial company,
retailer, life
insurance company,
finance, is doing
well… I mean what is
astonishing is that
even though there
are really only a
handful of companies
that are really
doing well in this
country… we go sto
bullish at the end
of the year it took
up so many
undeserving stocks…
now that the market
has come back down
we finally have some
buying
opportunities… some
stocks that are
nearing the right
levels to pull the
trigger… I think
Caterpillar Inc. (CAT), soon to
be under $40... that
is the right price I
said to buy it last
week, even if
Obama’s
infrastructure plan
disappoints.
Correction has
brought down
NYSE Euronext, Inc. (NYX)
from $29
back to below $24.…
it is now yielding
4.9%… with several
months of market
share gains… NYX
could be an
incredible play on
the fact that I
really don’t believe
that we will never
have another IPO
again… how about
Home Death Spot… one
of my top five
favorites of the
Dow… remember I told
you not pull the
trigger until it
yield 4%… well, here
we are… I am not
going to run from
stocks I recommended
to buy at certain
levels after they
got hit down to my
levels. I don’t run
from sales when the
merchandise is
excellent… you
shouldn’t either…
these are damaged
companies… these are
not, are not damaged
companies… they are
just damaged stocks.
Here is the bottom
line…
▼ ▼
▼ ▼
▼
The Bottom Line!:
Have some common
sense about common
stocks… don’t be
scared away from
these equities
because of the
supposedly
surprising negative
action…. and
surprising negative
earnings… it is
anything but
shocking… nothing
has changed with
these companies…
despite what the
summer soldiers and
sunshine patriots
who are now
panicking… will tell
you.
Don’t let the
negative action
surprise you and
scare you away from
stocks... Now,
this is T. Paine
market…. but not the
T. Paine I am
talking about… this
is a Thomas Paine
market… buy me a
drink… hey, make
mine Petron (as in
the Tequila brand)…
but that doesn’t
mean that you should
lose your common
sense...
[verbatim recap]
▼ ▼
▼ ▼
▼
Jim went on after
this segment to take
questions from
callers, and
responded with his
comments...
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Q:
I love the book,
when is the movie?
Jim:
Actually we talked
about a movie, but I
thought it might not
be so good for my
image… having just
broken out of Rolla
when this picture
was taken.
Same caller:
First of all you
are the market god.
And I have met you
before in Midtown
Manhattan a couple
of years ago.
Jim:
Was I polite and
nice or was I just
my miserable self?
Same caller:
Um, I would go
with the latter. I
don’t think you have
ever been polite or
nice. But having
said that, I do have
the books. When
should I start
dollar cost
averaging into some
of these energy
stocks?
Exxon Mobil (XOM),
for
example.
Jim:
I think you have to
start now, I think
you have to start…
it depends obviously
on the stock… I am
not as big a fan of
Exxon as others… I
think that stock has
had a great move… I
think that a stock
like
Marathon Oil Corp. (MRO)
back here is really
terrific… I like
Occidental Petroleum Corp.
(OXY)… but both of
those… but Marathon
has got a good
yield… my favorite
is
ConocoPhillips (COP*)… and it is
my favorite, and I
bought some for
ActionAlertsPlus.com, my
charitable trust… and now I
want it to come down
more to where I
pull the trigger… and I
apologize for my
behavior… there was
a very long period
of time where I
think people would
describe me as
having a cinder
block on my
shoulder… but it is
off… and now I am
simply a sweetheart
of a guy.
Q:
You have talked
about all of this
inflationary spiral
that we are in right
now, but given all
these new policies
are coming out, and
implanting. Just
like Bernanke talked
about in his speech
today in London.
Don’t you think it
is time to get in
the gold?
Jim:
First of all with
Bernanke I want to
mention… everything
he says now has been
right… obviously I
wish he had done it
earlier… but,
everything… he had
some statements this
morning, they were
just dead right…
dead right, saying
that they were not
doing enough… he is
completely on board…
I think he has
finally got it
right.. . and you
know what, my
criticism of him is
over… he has
definitely got it
right… I think gold
has always been what
I regard as being a
great hedge against
all the craziness…
would I buy gold
right here?…. I
think for someone
who feels that we
are almost out of
the deflationary
period, yes… I do
not think that we
are almost out of
it… so I think it is
early to buy gold… I
would wait for a
pullback.
[verbatim recap]
[end of segment]
Read Jim's next Segment
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Read Jim's next Segment
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