Don’t forget that
the tech sector
isn’t doing well
right now...
Jim:
In NASDAQ… as
opposed to Cramer…
we do not trust…
today we saw still
another bogus tech
rally from the get
go… another phony
Nasdaq-led affair…
that looked like it
had some legs…. but
look, you can’t
follow a tech rally
in this market… it
is like following
the Groucho Marx led
army of Fredonia… I
would love to trust
this rally… but I
just can’t because
everyone of these
kind of affairs
makes us feel great
for about 48 hours…
and then we are back
to where we started…
if not worse… it is
nice while it lasts…
but pretty soon we
will be saying it
was nice while it
lasted… people
should realize that
tech in this country
is doing
terribly…maybe not
as badly as the
banks… or, yes,
Cramer fave oil….
but every bit as
badly as retail… and
certainly most
industrials… when
you put your faith
in tech… you will
get burned.
This tech rally
really… it may look
like it has legs…
but trust me it is
purely an
amputational rally…
it has got no legs..
I am calling this a
King’s Row rally…
this is Ronald
Reagan in “Kings
Row” like where is
the rest of me…
every tech rally
starts the same
absurd way… either
Apple or Google or
Research In Motion
catches a bid… which
is genuine Wall
Street jibberish for
finds a buyer… now
if we actually said
finds a buyer… that
would make the whole
business
excessively…
accessible for the
ordinary people… and
then we would not be
able to pull the
cashmere over your
eyes… and
commissions would
come down… making
brokers less
wealthy… who wants
that?...
Jim (cont'd):
Now because of the
great Amazon
quarter… we have a
new fire starter…
um…. Google, Apple,
Amazon, Research In
Motion… sound
familiar… yep… they
are the four
horseman of the tech
apocalypse… all
these companies are
Tsunami companies…
they are disruptive
technology outfits…
that take market
share… and yes take
no prisoners… yet
all the NASDAQ tech
tend to follow them
when they go up…
take Apple (AAPL)… when
Apple does well, we
often see Dell Inc. (DELL)
take
off… huh… hello
darkness and
stupidity my old
friend.. these two
companies are
enemies for heavens
sake… when Amazon
goes up all retail
goes down…
especially eBay Inc. (EBAY)… but
of course the stock
went higher… eBay is
getting its head
bashed in … Law &
Order Criminal
Intent Amazon style…
am I wrong or does
it seem like Goren
gains weight every
single show.
How about Research
In Motion (RIMM)… how can
that take up the
other cell phone
stocks with it… the
other related
devices… RIMM is a
category killer that
whacks Motorola…
whacks Erickson…
whacks Nokia… people
tend to short stock
off of RIMM’s gains…
you don’t buy them…
and how about
Google-icous... Google, Inc. (GOOG)… here
is a company that
simply will not stop
until Yahoo! (YHOO)… and IAC/InterActiveCorp (IACI)… are
obliterated… be my
guest to take them
off of any Google
advance that
happened today… they
generally do… and it
hardly has any
staying power… to
misquote Eddie
Murphy in Cramer
fave “Trading
Places”… ain’t you
people ever heard of
zero sum...
Then there are the
semi-conductor
stocks… hardly a day
goes by when someone
says oh the bottom
is in there… how
much money has been
lost saying those
three words about
Intel… the bottom is
in… I actually think
that
QualComm Inc. (QCOM*)
has
bottomed… and I
bought some for
my charitable trust,
ActionAlertsPlus.com
last week… but it
sure has been a
nasty stock to own
all the way down… at
every single point I
heard it hit bottom…
hit bottom… it may
have bottomed but at
maybe 20 points
lower than where the
cognoscenti thought
it was going to
bottom… or how about
the fact that
Applied Materials (AMAT)
pre-announced a
terrible number and
then it didn’t go
down… eureka I guess
we should buy it…
makes me want to go
pick up some
Texas Instruments (TXN), some
KLA-Tencor Corp. (KLAC), some
LAM Research Corp. (LRCX)…just wait
until you hear
tomorrow the tech
analysts parrot that
line… those guys
truly do live in the
1000 bull dances…
that is the land…
the land of the 1000
bull dances.
Here is the problem…
it is sort of a big
one… repeat after
me… other than the
four horseman there
is nothing good
going on tech… other
than the four
horseman there is
nothing good going
on in tech.. .it is
only getting worse…
plus beginning this
month.. beginning
February, tech has
sold off right now
with the under
performance lasting
until the fall, 17
out of 18 years… 17,
19 years we have
seen tech stocks
start
underperforming
beginning in
February… I find it
hard to believe that
this time will be
different… this time
will be different
probably the most…
the most dangerous
five words in the
English language…
no… the most
dangerous five words
are don’t bother
covering Santonio
Holmes.
Alright, now more
important… any rally
based on a false
turn on the
fundamentals will
ultimately betray
us… most tech
companies have
access inventories
and weak end
markets… that means
as they report the
numbers have to come
down… until we see
the opposite this
one is a suspect
leader… more of a
Quisling than a
Churchill… you can
never understate the
importance of
leadership… you
actually want to see
a seriously across
the board rally…
than a rally in the
financials will
carry us far… a
rally in retail…
given the importance
of the consumer as
part of the economy…
can have legs…
retail actually may
indeed have some pin
action… courtesy of
the Plaza Lanes in
Madison… although
don’t count on
dividend slasher…
Macy’s to lead us…
you know what that
is like… that is
like Jason leading
us… sans hockey
mask.
I don’t mind a rally
led by industrials…
although I don’t
want one led by the
inflation
industrials, the
coppers, fertilizers
and grains… and
ultimately we did
actually have some
fundamental
positives lurking in
tech… say with like
a big work off of
inventories or a
brand new product
cycle… then… maybe
then I could buy
into a tech
leadership… but a
tech rally embodied
by the
Nasdaq…you
know what that is
like… plain and
simple… that is like
following, that is
like being led by
Wylie Coyote… a
difficult act to
follow… someone toss
me some Acme
dynamite right now.
Bottom line…
▼ ▼
▼ ▼
▼
The Bottom Line!:
Don’t buy today’s
tech rally… or any
tech rally until the
fundamentals
improve… because I
think it will betray
you… so don’t be
fooled into false
optimism… wait for
the real thing.
Until the
fundamentals
improve, continue to
be wary of any rally
in tech.
In
Nasdaq, we do not
trust… do not buy
today’s tech rally
until the
fundamentals get
better.
[verbatim recap]
▼ ▼
▼ ▼
▼
Jim went on after
this segment to take
questions from
callers, and
responded with his
comments...
``````````````````````````````````````````````````````````````````````````````````` Q:
You know everybody
knows that a
stimulus package is
going to be passed
in the coming weeks,
whether it is a good
package or another
pretty sick example
of increased
spending with sugar
on top, it is
probably going to
boost investor
confidence a good
bit. And I wanted to
see what you thought
about maybe a short
term buying
opportunity between
now and then?
Jim:
It is funny you
mention that,
because I happened
to be on my favorite
morning show, which
is Morning Joe… and
I was thinking, you
know what everyone
has now said that
the stimulus package
is awful… so what
happens if we get to
the Senate and
really start doing
some things that
will be good… I
think you might have
an opportunity here…
I am seeing the
steel stocks come
all the way back
down… I would like
you to be in Nucor…
where I feel that
upside is still big…
and the downside is
very quantified… so
let’s make Nucor to
be the winner.
