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Opening Segment #3: |
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'Know
Your IPO' |
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Monday,
February 9, 2009 |
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Jim's
rating on
this stock |
STOCK
SYMBOL |
Closing
price that
day |
Full Company Name |
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MJN |
na
New
IPO
- - -
not yet
traded |
Mead Johnson
(MJN)
Price target to buy MJN:
Under $26.00
Note: As of this
airing, MJN is
not-yet-released as a
new IPO.
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I think you can
profit from the Mead
Johnson IPO, but
only if you can get
in on it...
Jim:
Hey, whenever the
market is a real
dog… for an extended
period of time…
after people have
lost fortunes… and I
think this counts as
one of the great
canine moments… the
street likes to try
to entice you back
into the casino with
a nice juicy IPO
that is priced to
pop… and now they
are doing it
again…Cramer fave
and
ActionAlertsPlus
name, Bristol-Myers,
is selling a nice
chunk of Mead… that
is right, Mead
Johnson, it’s 105
year old baby
formula subsidiary…
yield should price
tomorrow night for
Wednesday… and when
it becomes public it
will trade under the
ticker MJN… this
deal is fabulous
news for
Bristol-Myers
because it gets to
use the money from
the sell to trade
down debt… it is
stupendous news for
Morgan Stanley which
is the co-manager in
the deal… it should
be good for their
quarter… and it
should be great for
the investors who
actually get in on
the actual deal..
Mead Johnson IPO…
not people who buy
it in the after
market... |
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See comments continued below...
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Monday,
February 9, 2009
(Cont'd from
above)...
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Jim:
But I want to
stress this one
point… okay… it
is crucial…
right now the
street is trying
to let the baby
have its bottle…
they don’t have
us crying over
spilled glasses
of infant
formula… let
alone all the
money that we
have lost in the
last few months…
so brokers are
giving you a
quick chance to
try to make some
money in Mead
Johnson… I am
not telling you
to buy the stock
after it becomes
public… I want
you to get in on
the deal… okay…
there is a
tremendous
disconnect in
the public
between buying
the stock and
buying on the
deal… but it
makes a huge
difference… I
don’t care about
Mead Johnson if
you can’t get in
on the deal… in
other words if
the broker says
I can give you
some shares in
the IPO if you
want it… I can
give you some
shares after the
IPO happens and
its public…you
don’t want it…
so call your
broker… send
some Commish to
Morgan Stanley…
they are the
book runner… and
see if you can
get in on the
actual IPO… if
Willey Sutton
were still
around today, he
would be trying
to get in on
this deal… not
buying in the
after market…
because that is
where the money
is.
Think about it…
the last big IPO
was Visa (V)…
back in March of
2008... almost a
year ago… and
the bankers
pulled the same
thing… if you
got in on the
IPO which priced
at $44... then
you would still
be up 25%… but
if you got in on
the closing
price on the day
that the stock
started trading…
you would be
about flat… that
is the loser
trade… you want
in on the Mead
Johnson deal…
which is just
like the Visa
deal… it is all
about getting
people back into
the game… you
don’t want to
buy the stock on
the open market
after it pops…
now I like Mead
Johnson, I
wouldn’t be
talking about it
otherwise… but
the current
price range in
the deal is
between $21 and
$24... I like it
at those prices…
give or take
$2... meaning it
maybe okay to
tell your broker
that you will
pay up to $26...
I do not like it
much higher than
that… and if it
is higher than
that when it
starts trading…
please… I am
begging you
here… you know
better… don’t
buy it… don’t be
like some in the
media… I am not
the kind of guy
who names name…
I am more of an
Arthur Miller
figure, than an
Olie Kusan, and
buy it at any
price because
Cramer said he
liked it… and
then go crying
to Mommy kind of
guy.
Anyway, if you
do intend to cry
to Mommy… this
is the perfect,
perfect company
for it… Mead
Johnson has 70
products in 50
different
countries… you
have probably
seen some of
this stuff… all
of the shelves
have it… it is
the leader in
infant formula…
think Infamil…
okay… among
other brands, if
you have kids…
in numerous
different
markets
including the
US… it is the
largest infant
formula in the
world… hey,
there are a lot
of things people
cut back in a
recession… but
feeding your
kids… and
especially their
babies… that
does not make
the list… 2/3’s
of the companies
sales comes from
baby formula…
the other third
from pediatric
nutrition… in
both segments
Mead Johnson
focuses on
making premium
products… I have
always thought
by far that this
is best of
breed… with
formulas that
are based on
hard science…
and thus hard to
copy… Infamil,
it’s big baby
formula brand,
is one of the
most trusted in
the world… I
know we used it…
okay… with the
highest number
of consumers
trusting it…
doctors
recommending it…
and consumers
thinking that it
is the closest
equivalent to
breast milk than
any baby
formula… trust
me on this.
Anyway, you
don’t pinch
pennies when it
comes to buying
your baby the
best formula out
there… although
I wonder about
the correlations
between
recessions and
breast feeding…
totally idle
thought…
spatial… not
linear… the
companies
products are
about recession
resistant as
they come… Mead
Johnson’s
pediatric
nutrition side
is where the
growth comes
from…. $19B
industry…
expected to be
$28B by 2012...
now you should
know that Mead
Johnson gets
half of its
sales… ¾’s of it
sales from Asia
and Latin
America… so
right now it is
the victim of
the strong
dollar… like so
many other
consumer
products
companies… but
since that is
being built into
all the estimate
models from the
get go… the
company should
be a big
beneficiary once
the green back
eventually
weakens… like
the gazillions
of articles that
have been
written about
our currency say
it should…it is
always
benefiting in
the turn in milk
prices… that
makes up 30% of
Mead Johnson’s
cost in goods
sold… Mead
Johnson will
also give you a
nice dividend,
.80 cents… it is
at the mid point
of the price
range applies at
3.5%… not too
shabby… if only
you can get in
on the deal, and
get the stock at
that price… they
are going to be
giving money
away on this
Mead Johnson
deal.
What about the
details of the
deal…
Bristol-Myers is
only selling 13%
of the equity in
Mead Johnson… 25
class a shares…
we usually don’t
like class a,
class b… but,
this is 28.75
million out of a
roughly 200
million… and in
the end it will
have 97.9% of
the voting
power…
unfortunately…
but that is
okay… the flow
of the stock is
going to be
tiny… something
that will make
for huge swings…
another reason
that I expect
this stock to
pop after it
becomes public.
Here is the
bottom line…
The
Bottom Line!:
I want you to call
your broker… I want
you to try to get in
on the actual IPO…
if you can’t… I am
being very clear
here… I want you to
take a pass… I am
not endorsing buying
this stock on the
open market… the
whole point is that
the street wants
this one to pop
after it becomes
public… in order to
get you back into
the game… in order
to make people to
feel better about
the stock market… so
don’t be the sucker
who buys the pop
after words… either
be the guy who buys
the deal… or face
the wheel and walk
away.
Know your IPO - I
like Mead Johnson,
but only if you can
get in on the MJN
IPO under $26...
Alright, I want you
to know your IPO… I
like Mead Johnson…
okay… hey listen,
when I am at home
with a quiet moment…
you know I break
this stuff out with
a little Tequila… I
like Mead Johnson
but only if you can
get ahead of the
deal under $24...
and Yahoo and
Infamil… that is a
cocktail.
[verbatim recap]
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Jim went on after
this segment to take
questions from
callers, and
responded with his
comments...
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Q:
I wanted to know
your thoughts on
Visa (V), they are
meeting or beating
growth and earnings
estimates. They have
a safe dividend, and
significant growth
potential going
forward, especially
in China, and I see
it as a great long
term play.
Jim:
I totally agree with
you… I think exactly
the way that you did
it… they had a good
quarter in this
environment… what
could they do when
things are better… I
think it is a great
play off of paper
going to plastic… it
is a very well run
company… I thought
the quarter was
outstanding… and I
agree with you… I
think it is a solid
buy… on any pull
back below $50,
which it probably
won’t get to… I
would just say that
it is a screaming
buy.
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Q:
We have obviously
seen very few IPO’s
in a tough economy
over the past year.
But eventually when
things start turning
around and we start
seeing some
interesting IPO’s
sprouting up, how
can I as a middle
class investor
convince one of the
big brokerages
handling the IPO
basically that I am
worth talking to
even though I don’t
have millions to
invest?
Jim:
Well, it is very
difficult… what you
have to do is say
look I am in it for
the game.. I am in
it for the long
haul… I believe in
stocks… I am… as I
gain wealth I am
going to do more and
more business with
you… I would like to
show you with the
little money that I
have… here is some
trades… you do some
trades and you say
look I am with you…
I want to build
loyalty to you… you
show me some
loyalty… that is
allowed… that is an
okay thing…
obviously the
allocations tend to
go to the biggest
customers… but you
can build good will
that way… and I
suggest that you do
it… I think it is a
natural way for a
young person like
you… to say look I
am going to be in
this my whole life…
why not be my broker
now… why not make me
a life long
customer… and give
me some of these
great IPO’s.
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Q:
I saw an article in
The Wall Street Journal
about
Bristol-Myers (BMY),
spinning off Mead
Johnson and company
and doing an IPO for
about $600 million
bucks. Jim, my
question is how is
this going to
benefit
Bristol-Myers?
Jim:
Great, great
question… I spent a
lot of time talking
about that with
Stephanie Link, who
works with me on
ActionAlertsPlus.com, my
charitable trust,
we were trying to
figure out whether
this makes it
whether
Bristol-Myers is
going to take the
money and maybe even
buy another company…
but they better get
on the case… because
Bristol-Myers stand
alone will be too
attractive to some
other drug company
that needs to get
some growth… I think
that it is a win,
win either way…
could they be taken
over… absolutely…
but given the fact
that the
fundamentals are
good… I’ll pull the
trigger on
Bristol-Myers
anyway.
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[verbatim recap]
[end of segment]
Read Jim's next Segment
here
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