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Tuesday,
October 22, 2008
(Cont'd from
above)...
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Jim (cont'd):
“We would also like
to point out that
the lead Goldman
Sachs analyst who
provided the note in
question was in his
role for only one
week prior to the
release of the
report.
Comparatively, the
Principal Financial
Group is covered by
16 sell side
analysts. Of these
individuals, four
recommend a buy,
eight suggest hold
and four recommend
sell. Of the
analysts who have a
“buy” on The
Principal, three are
among the most
experienced and
highly regarded in
the industry. Before
Cramer reports on
the life insurance
industry again, we
ask that he
considers the idea
that not all
insurance companies
are created equal.”
In retrospect that
is kind of
outrageous… that
Principal would send
me that email… and
then when they
announce their
quarter last night…
report that their
book value has been
more than cut in
half… they have got
a huge increase in
unrealized losses…
we gave Principal a
chance after they
sent us the email…
we said that we rely
on Goldman Sachs and
begged them to prove
Goldman wrong… but
it was Principal not
Goldmans that let us
down… remember in
their email
Principal stressed
that Moody’s had
just maintained
their stable
outlook… but here is
what Moody’s had to
say about Principal
today… “Rating
outlook changed to
negative from stable
because of
continuing
investment losses
and weakening
earnings capacity.”
… I say live by the
Moody sword die by
the Moody sword…
Principal can not
have it both ways…
Moody’s has put them
on a watch for
possible downgrades…
ratings speak for we
no longer like you
the way we did when
we blessed you
before.
And when I put this
one in the sell
block… all I was
really trying to do
was get ahead of a
big decline… the
stock was at $18.76
then… and now it is
$11.99... that is a
36% decline… that is
what I wanted you to
avoid… that is why
Barron’s likes my
stuff so much…
because I get you
out of these big
decliners… okay… we
were worried about
Principal’s
portfolio… and even
though they got mad
at us… as it turns
out we had every
right to worry… they
have got gigantic
exposure to mortgage
backed securities
and asset backed
securities… the
hardest hit part of
the market… and what
bothered us more
than anything else…
is that I think
there is a lack of
transparency here… I
mean, who even knows
what they really
own… so I guess the
highly regarded
analyst that
Principal was
talking about in
their email got had…
they are now
scrambling of course
to defend their buy
ratings… because
they are senior
statesman, they
don’t want to
change… they look
like idiots… they
were focused on
earnings streams…
which looked good…
but we have never
cared about earnings
streams when it
comes to these
insurers…. no… we
have always cared
about their
investments… that is
the real issue… that
is what is causing
their decline… it is
not the earnings.
Look, we are about
trying to get you
out of stocks before
potential losses… we
are not seeking to
apologize for the
declines… or make
excuses… the Goldman
Sachs guy may have
only been at it for
one week… but maybe
that was key..
perhaps what was
needed was a fresh
eye to get this one
right… Principal did
get one thing right
though… not all
insurance companies
are created equal…
you bet… some like
Principal Financial
are worse than
others… particularly
this one down 77%
year over year… the
prosecution rests.
[verbatim recap]
[end of segment]
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