Opening Segment #3:
'Make The Grade'
Friday, February 20, 2009
 

I’m not getting all political on you, the stocks I’ve tracked tell the whole gritty truth...

Jim:      Who would you rather bank on here… Barack Obama the President of the United States, the most powerful man on earth… with more ability to affect public policy than any one else alive… or… a restaurateur, an author, Danny Meyer, who owns and runs the Union Square Café… and a bunch of other great places to eat in Manhattan, they are really hard to get a table at, even in this garden variety depression… if you guessed Obama… you would be wrong… this is not just me bloviating about politics… I don’t do that… this is imperical… back on January 21st, the day after Obama’s inauguration we created an Obama Accountability Index… of six stocks to measure our new President’s performance… Bank of America, Citigroup, Caterpillar, General Motors, and General Electric… parent company of this network… and JP Morgan… the idea was that these stocks represented the key challenges of our times and if we looked at them together we would have a holistic report card judging Obama’s performance in office...

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Market Results today:

Dow - 100

Nasdaq - 8

S&P 500:  - 1

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Friday, February 20, 2009
(Cont'd from above)...


Jim (cont'd):
     


We put Bank of America and Citigroup, the two hugely troubled banks in there, along with JP Morgan, which is a healthy bank, to alight his handling of the financial crisis… GM, his ability to fix the autos, right, that matters… Caterpillar, well that was supposed to track the success of the stimulus package… or rather its lack of success… as Obama’s infrastructure plan turned out to have hardly any infra… finally, GE, the quintessential American industrial conglomerate to measure his ability to get the economy back on track more generally.

So how has Obama done… well, let’s go to the tape… the index started at 100 on January 21st… the S&P 500 at that point was at 840... since then the Obama Accountability Index has fallen to 65... 35.4% decline… S&P has fallen 8.4%… that puts him right in line with what is that about 4 times… let’s see what kind of grade that would be… how about between a D- and an F… oh wait a second, there could be great inflation, we could do things on a curve relative to the S&P… alright so he gets a C-… that is probationary at best… and if you grade tough… well I got to tell you, El Presidente is not graduating… I will admit that we didn’t give Obama the easiest time with this index… but we have got major problems… not me, that is always talking about bold solutions… if Obama want to boost his GPA, he should cheat off of a country that has got the right plan… like China… not only is cheating permitted in this game, I will give the guy extra points for copying from the Chinese Communists… who clearly know what they are doing… they are creating jobs… we are paying off unions and repeating the guns and butter mistakes of… I haven’t mentioned this guy ever on this show… Lyndon Johnson… during the Viet Nam war… Lyndon Johnson, holy cow.

While the Obama Accountability Index has been thrashed… we do have another index… this is the Hospitality Index, this one was created by Danny Meyer, who came on the show back on February 2nd with a novel theory that I completed disagreed with… companies that provide exceptional service even if they are more expensive… will somehow outperform those that don’t during this really tough period… because they build up customer good will… not service… but customer good will and brand loyalty… it is called a hospitality quotient that he thinks will cause out performance… he picked 17 stocks, Danny, to test this theory…. Amazon, Ebay, Cosco, Goldman Sachs, Apple, Google, Whole Foods, Southwest Air, Mattel, Build A Bear, Mens Warehouse, Timberland, Norstrom, Bed Bath & Beyond, American Express, Brown Forman, and Chipotle… now, the stocks in the Meyer Hospitality Economic Index lagged the S&P 6 points in the fourth quarter of 2008, but we knew that… because he said, listen I am talking forward… but since Danny came on the show and talked about the index… look at this out performance… the index was at 65 on February 2nd, the S&P 500 was at 825... as of today, the index is still around 65... very close, this is the benchmark and it is right around it… Danny’s index is of just .3%, the S&P is down 6.7%… but get this, in a portfolio… in other words, look at this, this is Danny’s and this is the S&P, this is how much better he has done than the S&P 500.

In a portfolio as well as “Setting the Table”, Danny’s best selling book… that is a huge margin to beat the S&P by… it is one that I would have not predicted in these really hard times… well, he isolated some great stocks that I thought were losers… he told us to buy Whole Foods, well Whole Foods is up 26% on a much better than expected quarter, with a more positive outlook than the street… he told us to buy Chipotle, that is up 15%, also on earnings beat… Chipotle is a great example of what Danny Meyer was talking about with the hospitality quotient… it exemplifies all of the qualities that he likes to see in a company… and at a restaurant especially… and possibly for that reason the company was able to increase menu prices during its quarter by around 6%… despite the fact that we are in the worst deflationary spiral since the Great Depression… people keep coming, they keep eating, and are willing to pay more for Chipotles exception service… it is fun, cheap, fresh, and really fattening… and we know from surveys right now that people are worried about their jobs, not their waistlines.

It looks like Danny is onto something with this hospitality quotient idea.. that doesn’t mean that every company that provides a great company experience will outperform… American Express, for example, is in the Hospitality Index… but it just has too much credit exposure in an environment where credit exposure is totally toxic… which is why this Warren Buffett sponsored and owned entity, is down 24% since the index was created… that is what is keeping it from outperforming… since actually making money since he was here.

Bottom line… 

 

 

The Bottom Line!:     The Meyer Hospitality Economy Index and Danny get an A+… Barack Obama is lucky to get a gentlemen’s C… he is cheating off the totally absent Tim Geithner… our much adored Treasury Secretary… when he should be cribbing from the Chinese Communist… the greatest capitalists the world has ever, ever seen.

The Meyer Hospitality Economy Index gets an “A” during these tough times… but the Obama Index should signal that it’s time the US borrows China’s crib sheet...    The Obama Index or the Danny Meyer Hospitality Economy Index… I am sticking with Meyer.

[verbatim recap]

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Jim went on after this segment to take questions from callers, and responded with his comments...

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Q:    I want to know what incentive does President Obama and his economic team of pushing and passing this huge stimulus plan, that polls show 95% of the most well-respected and reputable economic analysts, such as yourself, don’t agree with?

Jim:   
 Well, first of all you made a mistake… that was President Polosi, you might have thought it was Obama, I know that you get those two confused… that was the Polosi plan… and what it did was that it paid off every single interest that the Democratic party ever had, except for the people that were looking for a job… so I totally agree… now I did not vote for Polosi, but you know what… we are stuck with her as President, and the other guy is there two… but it is very clear… its like we had two presidents, like when Bush was still in and Obama was trying to be in… we have two presidents now… Polosi and Obama… so let’s see which one wins in the end in the tag team cage match, okay.

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Q:    My wife works for the BB&T in the mortgage processing, their loans have doubled, BB&T used the TARP money for what they were supposed to, they are a strong bank on the ratios. I just want your feeling on the banks that did the right thing?

Jim:   
 I am not recommending any banks because we have this Treasury Secretary who hasn’t told us whether he is going to nationalize banks, euthanize banks or help banks… Geithner is BB&T’s problems… now Geithner is loved by the press, we have got to give him that… I am stuck with the possibility that it is going to cost us trillions… I am unwilling to give him that… that is my worry… Geithner, BB&T has millions of shareholder, but it only has one that matters… and he may not even be a shareholder… and that is Tim Geithner… well, everybody loved him except for me… what can I tell you.

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[verbatim recap]

[end of segment]


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