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Opening Segment #3: |
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'Make
The Grade' |
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Friday,
February 20, 2009 |
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I’m not getting
all political on
you, the stocks
I’ve tracked
tell the whole
gritty truth...
Jim:
Who would
you rather bank on
here… Barack Obama
the President of the
United States, the
most powerful man on
earth… with more
ability to affect
public policy than
any one else alive…
or… a restaurateur,
an author, Danny
Meyer, who owns and
runs the Union
Square Café… and a
bunch of other great
places to eat in
Manhattan, they are
really hard to get a
table at, even in
this garden variety
depression… if you
guessed Obama… you
would be wrong… this
is not just me
bloviating about
politics… I don’t do
that… this is
imperical… back on
January 21st, the
day after Obama’s
inauguration we
created an Obama
Accountability
Index… of six stocks
to measure our new
President’s
performance… Bank of
America, Citigroup,
Caterpillar, General
Motors, and General
Electric… parent
company of this
network… and JP
Morgan… the idea was
that these stocks
represented the key
challenges of our
times and if we
looked at them
together we would
have a holistic
report card judging
Obama’s performance
in office... |
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See comments continued below...
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Friday,
February 20, 2009
(Cont'd from
above)...
Jim (cont'd):
We put Bank
of America
and
Citigroup,
the two
hugely
troubled
banks in
there, along
with JP
Morgan,
which is a
healthy
bank, to
alight his
handling of
the
financial
crisis… GM,
his ability
to fix the
autos,
right, that
matters…
Caterpillar,
well that
was supposed
to track the
success of
the stimulus
package… or
rather its
lack of
success… as
Obama’s
infrastructure
plan turned
out to have
hardly any
infra…
finally, GE,
the
quintessential
American
industrial
conglomerate
to measure
his ability
to get the
economy back
on track
more
generally.
So how has
Obama done…
well, let’s
go to the
tape… the
index
started at
100 on
January
21st… the
S&P 500 at
that point
was at
840... since
then the
Obama
Accountability
Index has
fallen to
65... 35.4%
decline… S&P
has fallen
8.4%… that
puts him
right in
line with
what is that
about 4
times… let’s
see what
kind of
grade that
would be…
how about
between a D-
and an F… oh
wait a
second,
there could
be great
inflation,
we could do
things on a
curve
relative to
the S&P…
alright so
he gets a
C-… that is
probationary
at best… and
if you grade
tough… well
I got to
tell you, El
Presidente
is not
graduating…
I will admit
that we
didn’t give
Obama the
easiest time
with this
index… but
we have got
major
problems…
not me, that
is always
talking
about bold
solutions…
if Obama
want to
boost his
GPA, he
should cheat
off of a
country that
has got the
right plan…
like China…
not only is
cheating
permitted in
this game, I
will give
the guy
extra points
for copying
from the
Chinese
Communists…
who clearly
know what
they are
doing… they
are creating
jobs… we are
paying off
unions and
repeating
the guns and
butter
mistakes of…
I haven’t
mentioned
this guy
ever on this
show… Lyndon
Johnson…
during the
Viet Nam
war… Lyndon
Johnson,
holy cow.
While the
Obama
Accountability
Index has
been
thrashed… we
do have
another
index… this
is the
Hospitality
Index, this
one was
created by
Danny Meyer,
who came on
the show
back on
February 2nd
with a novel
theory that
I completed
disagreed
with…
companies
that provide
exceptional
service even
if they are
more
expensive…
will somehow
outperform
those that
don’t during
this really
tough
period…
because they
build up
customer
good will…
not service…
but customer
good will
and brand
loyalty… it
is called a
hospitality
quotient
that he
thinks will
cause out
performance…
he picked 17
stocks,
Danny, to
test this
theory….
Amazon, Ebay,
Cosco,
Goldman
Sachs,
Apple,
Google,
Whole Foods,
Southwest
Air, Mattel,
Build A
Bear, Mens
Warehouse,
Timberland,
Norstrom,
Bed Bath &
Beyond,
American
Express,
Brown
Forman, and
Chipotle…
now, the
stocks in
the Meyer
Hospitality
Economic
Index lagged
the S&P 6
points in
the fourth
quarter of
2008, but we
knew that…
because he
said, listen
I am talking
forward… but
since Danny
came on the
show and
talked about
the index…
look at this
out
performance…
the index
was at 65 on
February
2nd, the S&P
500 was at
825... as of
today, the
index is
still around
65... very
close, this
is the
benchmark
and it is
right around
it… Danny’s
index is of
just .3%,
the S&P is
down 6.7%…
but get
this, in a
portfolio…
in other
words, look
at this,
this is
Danny’s and
this is the
S&P, this is
how much
better he
has done
than the S&P
500.
In a
portfolio as
well as
“Setting the
Table”,
Danny’s best
selling
book… that
is a huge
margin to
beat the S&P
by… it is
one that I
would have
not
predicted in
these really
hard times…
well, he
isolated
some great
stocks that
I thought
were losers…
he told us
to buy Whole
Foods, well
Whole Foods
is up 26% on
a much
better than
expected
quarter,
with a more
positive
outlook than
the street…
he told us
to buy
Chipotle,
that is up
15%, also on
earnings
beat…
Chipotle is
a great
example of
what Danny
Meyer was
talking
about with
the
hospitality
quotient… it
exemplifies
all of the
qualities
that he
likes to see
in a
company… and
at a
restaurant
especially…
and possibly
for that
reason the
company was
able to
increase
menu prices
during its
quarter by
around 6%…
despite the
fact that we
are in the
worst
deflationary
spiral since
the Great
Depression…
people keep
coming, they
keep eating,
and are
willing to
pay more for
Chipotles
exception
service… it
is fun,
cheap,
fresh, and
really
fattening…
and we know
from surveys
right now
that people
are worried
about their
jobs, not
their
waistlines.
It looks
like Danny
is onto
something
with this
hospitality
quotient
idea.. that
doesn’t mean
that every
company that
provides a
great
company
experience
will
outperform…
American
Express, for
example, is
in the
Hospitality
Index… but
it just has
too much
credit
exposure in
an
environment
where credit
exposure is
totally
toxic… which
is why this
Warren
Buffett
sponsored
and owned
entity, is
down 24%
since the
index was
created…
that is what
is keeping
it from
outperforming…
since
actually
making money
since he was
here.
Bottom line…
The
Bottom Line!:
The Meyer
Hospitality Economy
Index and Danny get
an A+… Barack Obama
is lucky to get a
gentlemen’s C… he is
cheating off the
totally absent Tim
Geithner… our much
adored Treasury
Secretary… when he
should be cribbing
from the Chinese
Communist… the
greatest capitalists
the world has ever,
ever seen.
The Meyer
Hospitality Economy
Index gets an “A”
during these tough
times… but the Obama
Index should signal
that it’s time the
US borrows China’s
crib sheet...
The Obama Index or
the Danny Meyer
Hospitality Economy
Index… I am sticking
with Meyer.
[verbatim recap]
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Jim went on after
this segment to take
questions from
callers, and
responded with his
comments...
```````````````````````````````````````````````````````````````````````````````````
Q:
I want to know what
incentive does
President Obama and
his economic team of
pushing and passing
this huge stimulus
plan, that polls
show 95% of the most
well-respected and
reputable economic
analysts, such as
yourself, don’t
agree with?
Jim:
Well, first of
all you made a
mistake… that was
President Polosi,
you might have
thought it was
Obama, I know that
you get those two
confused… that was
the Polosi plan… and
what it did was that
it paid off every
single interest that
the Democratic party
ever had, except for
the people that were
looking for a job…
so I totally agree…
now I did not vote
for Polosi, but you
know what… we are
stuck with her as
President, and the
other guy is there
two… but it is very
clear… its like we
had two presidents,
like when Bush was
still in and Obama
was trying to be in…
we have two
presidents now…
Polosi and Obama… so
let’s see which one
wins in the end in
the tag team cage
match, okay.
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Q:
My wife works for
the BB&T in the
mortgage processing,
their loans have
doubled, BB&T used
the TARP money for
what they were
supposed to, they
are a strong bank on
the ratios. I just
want your feeling on
the banks that did
the right thing?
Jim:
I am not
recommending any
banks because we
have this Treasury
Secretary who hasn’t
told us whether he
is going to
nationalize banks,
euthanize banks or
help banks… Geithner
is BB&T’s problems…
now Geithner is
loved by the press,
we have got to give
him that… I am stuck
with the possibility
that it is going to
cost us trillions… I
am unwilling to give
him that… that is my
worry… Geithner,
BB&T has millions of
shareholder, but it
only has one that
matters… and he may
not even be a
shareholder… and
that is Tim
Geithner… well,
everybody loved him
except for me… what
can I tell you.
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[verbatim recap]
[end of segment]
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