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Opening Segment #3: |
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'CEO
Interview'
'Exploring
Your
Options'
Interview
with
Larry
Nichols, CEO
Devon Energy |
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Monday,
February 23, 2009 |
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Jim's
rating on
this stock |
STOCK
SYMBOL |
Closing
price that
day |
Full Company Name |
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DVN* |
45.50 |
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Cramer’s
explaining how
you could fuel
up your
portfolio in a
tough market...
Listen up!...
Jim:
When you are talking
pain you are talking
natural gas… these
stocks have been
bent, folded,
spindled, mutilated…
and then mutilated
some more… they have
been put thru the
meat grinder… as the
price of the
commodity has been
crushed, we are down
to $4... remember
$13... these
companies are
victims of their own
success… in finding
so much natural gas…
and I believe in
their own failure,
and the failure of
the leadership in
Washington for not
extending a hand to
using big natural
gas a fuel
alternative… but if
I am right, then oil
prices will
eventually
stabilize, and then
go higher… remember
that I think that
$30 holds… I think
that natural gas
can’t help but
follow… even thought
the $4 level is
problematic… and we
are heading into the
spring, a period
when natural gas
historically has had
a very hard time
rallying… still it
doesn’t matter… I
like
Devon Energy (DVN*)… it is
one of the best run
natural gas plays
out there… we like
natural gas
companies that trade
at huge discounts to
their net asset
values… because that
is how you so called
get lucky… and Devon
at $45.50... I have
to repeat that
because I can’t
believe how low it
is $45.50... down
from its high $127,
is one of them.
Credit Suisse
estimates the
companies net asset
as $74... I have
read the research, I
think that it is
very conservative…
Benchmark Capital, a
little more
aggressive, has a
$107 asset value…
remember we are
talking about a $45
stock here… and
Jeffries has $88,
all much higher than
the current share
price… and not all
of these guys really
like Devon anymore….
now Devon has
battened down the
hatches… it took a
$10.4B charge on the
value of its
reserves… because of
lower commodity
prices… that freaked
everyone out… even
though on the
conference call,
which I have gone
thru, I thought that
they explained it…
now they have a flat
2009 production,
again they explained
that… in keeping
with our thesis that
there is going to be
less drilling, which
will decrease
supply, and thus
help prices
stabilize… Devon is
taking its rig count
down from 109 to
38... and cuttings
its capital budget
by 44% year over
year… I like that,
the stock market
didn’t.
Devon is a great
operator… it has a
reserve replacement
rate of 245%… I wish
that I could list
all of the reserve
replacement rates so
that you would know
how stellar that is…
and 2.4 billion
barrels of oil
equivalent of
reserves with 94% of
them in the save
confines of North
America… they got
rid of some of the
more jittery places
they were drilling
and I am thrilled…
the company has
$900M in cash… and
un-drawn credit
facilities of $2.1B…
that is enough
liquidity to keep it
operating for a very
long time… clean
balance sheet
relative to its
peers… debt to
capitalization ratio
of less than 25% …
they are
conservative… no
debt coming due
until 2011... I am
not even concerned
about that… Devon
also has four
discoveries in the
Gulf of Mexico… I
think they are the
biggest, and the
closest… 300 to 900
million barrels of
oil equivalent of
resources… although
only one of these is
suspected to come on
line by next year…
it was trading at
$64 before one of
these big
discoveries was
announced in
September 2006...
the stock is now 29%
below where this,
what I thought was
the largest find in
North America in
years was made… at
these levels… Devon
is compelling… they
have cut costs… they
are still booking
reserves… they look
financially viable.
But you know what…
this group has
caused so much havoc
with our viewers
that we have to be
more certain… we
have to talk to
Devon’s fabulous
CEO, Larry Nichols,
who is a legend in
the industry...
[Interview
transcript begins
below] |
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See comments continued below...
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Monday,
February 23, 2009
(Cont'd from
above)...
Jim (cont'd):
Start of
Interview
with
Larry
Nichols, CEO
Devon Energy
Jim:
Mr. Nichols,
welcome back
to Mad
Money. Good
to see you.
Mr.
Nichols:
Hi Jim, how
are you?
Good to see
you.
Jim:
Alright,
first how
can there be
such a
gigantic
disparity
between the
stock price
and what
even the
analysts who
don’t care
for your
company are
saying it is
worth?
Mr.
Nichols:
It is the
short term.
You look at
the short
term,
natural gas
prices are
weak. They
are going to
be weak for
a while. But
natural gas
will rectify
itself very
quickly. The
decline rate
in North
America is
steep, and
when our
industry
scales back
in drilling,
natural gas
production
will come
down in this
country.
Devon will
be in a
great
position,
because we
will have a
lot of
acreage that
we can go
drill. And
when that
market comes
back, which
it will, we
can take
advantage of
it.
Jim:
Now,
one of the
things that
I know is
very
difficult…
in your
conference
call you say
just over 3
months ago
Devon
reported the
largest
quarterly
earnings in
our history,
in contrast
in the
fourth
quarter as a
result of
this ceiling
test… very
difficult
concept… we
recorded our
ever largest
quarterly
loss. Isn’t
that too
hard for
investors to
stomach?
That kind of
volatility?
Mr.
Nichols:
It is
because it
really takes
away from
the reality
of our
reserves,
our results.
The SEC for
decades has
had a very
arbitrary
old-fashioned
rule, that
has you book
your
reserves on
a given day,
and pretend
that is the
reality. It
worked in
the 50’s and
60’s when
you had
fixed oil
and gas
prices. The
SEC
themselves
have
realized the
fallacy of
that, and
they changed
the rules.
Unfortunately,
the new
rules don’t
go into
affect until
the end of
this year.
Jim:
So,
will we feel
better at
the end of
this year
when we see
that, do you
think?
Mr.
Nichols:
Oh yeah, if
the new
rules had
been in
affect, we
would have
shown $4.4B
of earnings,
a record. We
would have
shown $10B
in cash flow
for the
year, a
record. As
you
mentioned,
245% reserve
replacement.
2 ½ times
our
reserves.
Jim:
I don’t
know any
other
company that
did that,
which is one
of the
reasons why
when I heard
that you
could come
on this
show, I
wanted you
on. Because
this kind of
misconception
tends not to
last for
very long.
Mr.
Nichols:
We drilled
2,441 wells
last year,
with a 98%
success
rate.
Jim:
You are
the great
wildcatter
in this
county. Now,
here is
something,
again,
because I am
trying to
understand…
this is a
piece, by
people… this
is an
Oppenheimer
piece, the
guy they
kind of like
you… and he
said Devon
shares have
significantly
lacked their
peer average
in the S&P
this year,
the shares
have
declined 25%
this year,
compared to
declines
8.3% for the
peer
average,
12.7% for
the S&P… why
do you think
given that
incredible
replacement,
you are
lacking your
peers?
Mr.
Nichols:
I think the
main reason
is we
haven’t
hedged very
much.
Jim:
Right,
because
Hacken
hedged…
Anadarko
hedged
really well.
Mr.
Nichols:
Hedging is
just one way
to mitigate
risk. It is
not a way
for an oil
and gas
company to
speculate,
it is a way
to mitigate
risk. We do
that in a
different
way. We keep
a really
clean
balance
sheet, we
are strong
investment
grade, we
keep really
high profit
properties,
we get rid
of all the
lower margin
properties,
and that has
allowed us
to get right
through all
of these
economic
declines in
the past.
And we will
get through
this one,
the same
way.
Jim:
Here is
another
one.. .this
is from
Jeffries… he
said,
liquidity is
not a
concern
despite
planning to
outspend
internally
generated
cash flow by
$1B… that
doesn’t
sound
conservative?
Mr.
Nichols:
Well, as I
said we are
using the
balance
sheet rather
than
hedging. And
so we are
using the
balance
sheet, you
keep a
strong
balance
sheet so
that when
you have
these
downturns in
commodity
prices or
the economy,
you can use
that balance
sheet. We
are going to
keep all of
our long
term
projects
going. The
discoveries
that we have
had in the
Gulf of
Mexico, the
heavy oil up
in Canada,
all of these
long term
projects we
keep going.
Even though
they are not
generating a
lot of cash
this year.
What we are
scaling back
on are the
gas
properties.
Jim:
Right,
like the
great
Oklahoma
find, but
you are not
doing much
with it,
right?
Mr.
Nichols:
Why, well
there are
companies
that get
rewarded in
this market
for having a
lot of
production
growth, why
would you
want to
maximize
production
growth when
gas markets
are
terrible?
You know,
you keep all
the gas in
the ground,
you do all
of your
geology, you
find out
what is
there, so
that when
this market
turns, which
it will
later this
year or next
year, nobody
knows for
sure. We
will be in
an ideal
position. We
have 27,000
identified,
undrilled
locations.
Why would
you drill
those now?
Keep those
where they
are, get
ready to
drill them,
when the
market
turns, we
will have
one of the
best if not
the best
inventories
in the
country.
Jim:
Larry
Nichols,
thank you
for
explaining
this. I will
admit, and I
am a good
student of
this, the
ceiling test
was hard for
me, it was a
hard thing
to
understand.
But you have
explained
that the SEC
issues… and
I think that
is why the
misinformation,
the
misconception
is the
opportunity.
Thank you
for coming
on Mad
Money.
Mr.
Nichols:
Thank you
sir...
Larry
Nichols, CEO
of Devon
Energy.
[verbatim recap]
[end of segment]
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