I put all of the casino stocks in the Sell Block back on January 17th of 2008... more than a year ago.

Since then, you've seen a 96% decline in Las Vegas Sands (LVS)... a 77% decline in Wynn Resorts (WYNN)... and a 76% decline in IGT. And now it's an even a worse time to be in a casino than it was a year ago. Any potential recovery is years away.

The analyst at Bernstein, who loved LVS, thinks the casino business will improve after 2009, especially in Asia. They like Macau. They think the opportunity in Singapore, where LVS is building a new casino, could be huge... even though, in my opinion at least, LVS has a balance sheet that's stretched near to breaking... the analysts at Bernstein think that this $2.85 stock... practically a keno ticket as I see it... will work, as the company makes asset sales and opens up new resorts, especially this Marina Bay Sands in Singapore...

The guys at Bernstein... they're dead wrong. I have to agree with RealMoney.com ratings on LVS... part of TheStreet.com, where I'm Chairman... they rate the stock a "sell"... And, if you want a report card on the stock, they give it a "D"...

Look... nobody wants to gamble right now... Not here, not in China, not in Singapore...

December total visitations in Las Vegas declined 10.8%... Plus, we have a president... Doesn't he say, like, you shouldn't go?... He doesn't want you to have a convention there or something... The 10th straight month of declines... the worst month of the year...

In Macau, where LVS has a big presence... as of January, revenues declined year over year for four of the previous five months... Visa restrictions from the Chinese government... tough comparisons from the first half of 2008...
Every time you turn around, it seems like the Chinese are hosing LVS... they are just hosing them... I think they've got a problem with that owner, Sheldon Adelson... In China, they don't have that miserable 5th amendment garbage... that protects the people from having the government take their property... They're squeezing LVS...

I've been thinking about this, trying to come up with an analogy... In China, the equivalent of Senator Geary gets paid by Michael Corleone. It's a total reversal of "The Godfather II"...

When it comes down to it, the Chinese communists still know how to expropriate better than anybody else... even though they're also the best capitalists in the world... They have a superior form of government, in addition to a superior attitude and a superior state of mind... not unlike Mason Storm, in "Hard To Kill"... an Olivier-like performance if there ever was one...

How about that new casino and resort in Singapore that the analyst at Sanford Bernstein are so keen on... According to Forbes, LVS is seeing major cost overruns... The initial budget was for $3.2 billion. Now it's $5.4 billion. It's kind of like a bank, huh?... Not so great when you're a cash-strapped company, and the casino business stinks... Asset sales? More like fire sales...

All the assets that LVS can sell are in Macau, but only 25% of those funds can be used to pay down U.S. debt. Good luck finding a buyer who is willing to pay up in this environment...

According to Credit Suisse, which cut its estimates for LVS earlier this month, the company's liquidity issues, along with weak business, could make it difficult to fund projects, and cause the company to violate its debt covenants.

LVS needs $2 billion in cash, or $307 million more in earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization, to meet its debt covenants... It's close to violating them in Macau.

And anybody who got in in that disastrous secondary, where it sold 181.8 million shares in November, at $5.50, is down 48.2%. You rolled "snake eyes" on that one.

Here's the bottom line...