Opening Segment #3:
'Obama Nation?'
Friday, February 27, 2009
 

Jim's
rating on
this stock

STOCK
SYMBOL

Closing
price that
day

Full Company Name

BHP

36.42

BHP Billiton Ltd. (BHP)


With every move President Obama makes, the market seemingly gets sicker & sicker I’m not getting all political on you, but I do want to shed some light on this market...

Jim:     Government of, by, for the corporation… is perishing from the earth…

A dividend divided, or halved, will not stand…  Our country is now run by a President and a Bolshevik leaning Democratic party.. that are simply unfavorable to stocks and the people that own them… in all fairness, I don’t think that Obama is deliberately eager to destroy your wealth… he is just trying to roll back all of the breaks corporations have gotten over the Bush years over the favor of individuals… but he is doing it at a time when the wrong moves could result in a wholesale breakdown of our economy… this week he wrecked the healthcare stocks… he pummeled them, like Joe Lewis in the rematch with Schnelling… or like Tony Stark against Opidia, in Cramer-fave “Iron Man”… his budget calls for big tax increases in oil and gas… who knows what he could go after next.. if it could trade, it is fair game for Obama...

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Market Results today:

Dow:  - 119

Nasdaq:  - 17

S&P 500:  - 13

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Friday, February 27, 2009
(Cont'd from above)...


Jim (cont'd):

Look, this show is not about politics… right now it is about trying to help you avoid losses and build a portfolio that can make it thru the house of pain… and that means that you have to Obama proof your portfolio… something that I will be helping you do in a multi-part series starting today, and extending all thru next week… that is right, we are going to Obama-proof that portfolio… like bomb proof… like Stranium 90... like don’t drink milk until late next year.

Remember, if this market has taught us anything it is that nothing is fool-proof…. but we can sure build a portfolio that, well, let’s just say Obama resistant… now, we have neglected international stocks deliberately every since the down turn started… because believe it or not a lot of places like Europe are doing even worse than we are… now I don’t want to sound un-American, because that is not me… but it is time to revisit the international names… because you now need to own a stock that is outside of this country… something that is beyond Obama’s reach… something that is on the beach… a better book than movie… despite the bizarre but brilliant casting of Fred Astaire… I want you to think
BHP Billiton Ltd. (BHP)… that is the largest diversified resource company… and the one that is based in Australia… that is not a stock mate… this is a stock… actually this is a knife, but you get the Crocodile Dundee analogy don’t you.

I think BHP could turn out to be the best play on China’s $600 billion infrastructure stimulus plan… and it along with the Australian economy should come back faster than we will because of its exposure to China… the Chinese Communists … you know it, I say it… are now the last, best hope for capitalism… China will be the engine for any global economy recovery… and BHP, will be the company shoveling natural resources down China’s veracious mall… to fuel that growth… by this time next year, I am offering a Cramerican prediction… by this time next year in Beijing, there will be more BHP than MSG… plus, BHP is a good accidentally high notoriously B.I.G. juicy 4.5% yield that I read about, of course, in Word Up magazine… a lot of other minerals and mining companies have been forced to cut their dividends… but this one is Lawrence Olivier, in “Marathon Man” save… oh and Australia still seems safely in the throws of capitalism… I am thinking perhaps this is because the nations strong aversion to returning to its debtor prison roots.

Our rule of thumb… taken from Dave Pelletier, my colleague from
TheStreet.com, where I am chairman, who runs the Dividend Stock Advisor Newsletter… says a companies earnings should be at least twice the size of its dividend payouts…. uh oh, BHP’s earnings should only be 1.8 times the size of the payout… but, the company has a strong balance sheet and its free cash flow in 2008, was 19% greater than its net income… that is more than enough to cover the dividend… they are paying you to wait for the Chinese stimulus to really kick in… in its 2008 fiscal year, which ended in June, 20% of BHP’s sales came from China… the company is the second largest producer of iron ore in the world… and half of BHP’s ore goes to China… the third largest producer of copper, needed for China’s big infra projects… the third largest producer of nickel, used to make stainless steel… and the largest global supplier of seaborne traded hard coking coal, that is the kind of coal used in steel production… by the way Freeport-McMoRan (FCX*), an ActionAlertsPlus.com name… that is giant copper play… has almost doubled in the last few months, because copper prices have firmed up… I think BHP will do the same thing.

Hey, it also has some nice oil properties… and it has the benefit of being just a hop, skip, and a jump away from China… now, in November BHP said that because of a sharp slump in Chinese iron ore, annual sales will probably be down 6 million tons from a target of 130 million… but in January, they came out and told us that they expected shipments to fall only 1 or 2 million tons… and the week ending February 23rd, Chinese ordered inventories declined 6% year over year, 2% from the previous week, 23% from the high reached in mid September.. hey, you know what this is good… you have got to believe that things will only get better as China’s stimulus really gets into gear… now, remember this… this is important… China’s government is stimulating the economy… our government is stimulating Nancy Pelosi's agenda… already the price of imported iron ore in China is up by more than 25% since October… while the price of hot rolled steel is up more than 35% since mid November… these are good numbers guys… January unit sells of new housing in Beijing doubled year over year.. what are we down by like 1/8th …. and they are using BHP’s copper, not to mention its other raw materials in those new homes.

BHP missed the streets estimates when it reported last… come on, its cash flow though increased 74% and its dividend was 41% larger than last year… the company reduced its net debt by 51%… this company is doing everything right… it’s a much stronger balance sheet than its competitors… which has allowed the company to keep up its spending growth during the downturn… other natural resource plays are cutting back, they are scared… not BHP, they are taking advantage of falling capital costs to grow its business… they are ready for the next upturn… which I think could come sooner than people realize for
BHP Billiton Ltd. (BHP).

The stock has fallen… here is another thing, you are not getting in this thing early… it has already fallen from $95 to $36... 4.5% yield… balance sheet looking real good… taking market share… could raise dividend further… while other resource plays struggle… largest beneficiary of China’s stimulus package… it is also Obama proof…. it is based in Australia… beyond the reach of our President’s ability to tax.

Here is the bottom line…

 

 

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The Bottom Line!:     You need to Obama proof your portfolio… that is what we are going to be doing all next week… that means in part you have to get out of this country… maybe as far from this country as possible… and the first step is to throw some Australian BHP Billiton Ltd. (BHP) onto the bar-bie.

If you want to Obama-proof your portfolio, look to China & Consider BHP a buy...   BHP is it Obama proof… I call it Obama resistant… but I have got to tell you something… I want you to put a little BHP on the bar-bie.

[verbatim recap]

 

 

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Jim went on after this segment to take questions from callers, and responded with his comments...

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Q:    I have a question about stem cell stocks, now that Obama is in office, what is that going to do for stem cell stocks? Is now a good time to get in?

Jim:   
No, no… I want you out… I don’t think that there is really much there… I think that it is really important to recognize that those things had their move and now you have to sell, sell, sell… sorry, I am not going there… not a lot of money is going to be made off of Obama… as a matter of fact, I think a lot of money is going to be lost.

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Q:    Hearing about the changes coming thru on the health plans, and the medical. And I was concerned about
MedcoHealth Solutions Inc. (MHS), and what I am hearing that the ability of prescription drugs being sold from US overseas, it will allow that to happen. And also, we will have been long term holders of Medco, and they all pay a dividend, so it kind of goes against some of the things that you have been saying, so I just want your take on it. I would like your take on MHS?

Jim:   
Look I think that that whole industry is now suddenly challenged… I thought that it would be a great way to play Obama… because MHS holds costs down, I happen to love the CEO, he was on TV earlier this week on our network… but in the end this is just one more company like
Express Scripts Inc. (ESRX), that could find itself squeezed… we are going to hold off MHS until it gets to $35... and there maybe it will become Obama resistant.

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Q:    With Obama being in office now, and I am an avid investor of
Home Depot (HD). I was wondering how I should play that with Obama being in office, and how is that going to affect Home Depot?

Jim:   
Well, I have got to tell you that there is a lot of believe… just so you know… retail cannot be affected by Obama… because sells taxes are at a state level… and it is just unlikely that he is going to attack Home Depot anytime soon… here is my problem, Home Depot I want to buy between $18 and $19... it had a nice move back to $20... the earnings were better… the 4% yields are fine… but I am only recommending one retail stock and that is
Wal-Mart (WMT*)… now, of course, Obama could take aim at Wal-Mart… why, because they have such market share and he seems to want to take aim at everything… but I cannot recommend Home Depot when I have Wal-Mart sitting down here… that is my play… I don’t want to touch anything else in retail.

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[verbatim recap]

[end of segment]


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