|
Opening Segment #3: |
 |
|
'Obama
Nation?' |
 |
|
Friday,
February 27, 2009 |
|
|
 |
 |
|
|
|
|
|
Jim's
rating on
this stock |
STOCK
SYMBOL |
Closing
price that
day |
Full Company Name |
|
 |
BHP |
36.42 |
|
With every move
President Obama
makes, the market
seemingly gets
sicker & sicker I’m
not getting all
political on you,
but I do want to
shed some light on
this market...
Jim:
Government of, by,
for the corporation…
is perishing from
the earth…
A dividend divided,
or halved, will not
stand… Our
country is now run
by a President and a
Bolshevik leaning
Democratic party..
that are simply
unfavorable to
stocks and the
people that own
them… in all
fairness, I don’t
think that Obama is
deliberately eager
to destroy your
wealth… he is just
trying to roll back
all of the breaks
corporations have
gotten over the Bush
years over the favor
of individuals… but
he is doing it at a
time when the wrong
moves could result
in a wholesale
breakdown of our
economy… this week
he wrecked the
healthcare stocks…
he pummeled them,
like Joe Lewis in
the rematch with
Schnelling… or like
Tony Stark against
Opidia, in
Cramer-fave “Iron
Man”… his budget
calls for big tax
increases in oil and
gas… who knows what
he could go after
next.. if it could
trade, it is fair
game for Obama...
|
|
See comments continued below...
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Friday,
February 27, 2009
(Cont'd from
above)...
Jim (cont'd):
Look, this show is
not about politics…
right now it is
about trying to help
you avoid losses and
build a portfolio
that can make it
thru the house of
pain… and that means
that you have to
Obama proof your
portfolio… something
that I will be
helping you do in a
multi-part series
starting today, and
extending all thru
next week… that is
right, we are going
to Obama-proof that
portfolio… like bomb
proof… like Stranium
90... like don’t
drink milk until
late next year.
Remember, if this
market has taught us
anything it is that
nothing is
fool-proof…. but we
can sure build a
portfolio that,
well, let’s just say
Obama resistant…
now, we have
neglected
international stocks
deliberately every
since the down turn
started… because
believe it or not a
lot of places like
Europe are doing
even worse than we
are… now I don’t
want to sound
un-American, because
that is not me… but
it is time to
revisit the
international names…
because you now need
to own a stock that
is outside of this
country… something
that is beyond
Obama’s reach…
something that is on
the beach… a better
book than movie…
despite the bizarre
but brilliant
casting of Fred
Astaire… I want you
to think
BHP Billiton Ltd. (BHP)…
that is the largest
diversified resource
company… and the one
that is based in
Australia… that is
not a stock mate…
this is a stock…
actually this is a
knife, but you get
the Crocodile Dundee
analogy don’t you.
I think BHP could
turn out to be the
best play on China’s
$600 billion
infrastructure
stimulus plan… and
it along with the
Australian economy
should come back
faster than we will
because of its
exposure to China…
the Chinese
Communists … you
know it, I say it…
are now the last,
best hope for
capitalism… China
will be the engine
for any global
economy recovery…
and BHP, will be the
company shoveling
natural resources
down China’s
veracious mall… to
fuel that growth… by
this time next year,
I am offering a
Cramerican
prediction… by this
time next year in
Beijing, there will
be more BHP than
MSG… plus, BHP is a
good accidentally
high notoriously
B.I.G. juicy 4.5%
yield that I read
about, of course, in
Word Up magazine… a
lot of other
minerals and mining
companies have been
forced to cut their
dividends… but this
one is Lawrence
Olivier, in
“Marathon Man” save…
oh and Australia
still seems safely
in the throws of
capitalism… I am
thinking perhaps
this is because the
nations strong
aversion to
returning to its
debtor prison roots.
Our rule of thumb…
taken from Dave
Pelletier, my
colleague from
TheStreet.com,
where I am chairman,
who runs the
Dividend Stock
Advisor Newsletter…
says a companies
earnings should be
at least twice the
size of its dividend
payouts…. uh oh,
BHP’s earnings
should only be 1.8
times the size of
the payout… but, the
company has a strong
balance sheet and
its free cash flow
in 2008, was 19%
greater than its net
income… that is more
than enough to cover
the dividend… they
are paying you to
wait for the Chinese
stimulus to really
kick in… in its 2008
fiscal year, which
ended in June, 20%
of BHP’s sales came
from China… the
company is the
second largest
producer of iron ore
in the world… and
half of BHP’s ore
goes to China… the
third largest
producer of copper,
needed for China’s
big infra projects…
the third largest
producer of nickel,
used to make
stainless steel… and
the largest global
supplier of seaborne
traded hard coking
coal, that is the
kind of coal used in
steel production… by
the way
Freeport-McMoRan (FCX*),
an
ActionAlertsPlus.com
name… that is giant
copper play… has
almost doubled in
the last few months,
because copper
prices have firmed
up… I think BHP will
do the same thing.
Hey, it also has
some nice oil
properties… and it
has the benefit of
being just a hop,
skip, and a jump
away from China…
now, in November BHP
said that because of
a sharp slump in
Chinese iron ore,
annual sales will
probably be down 6
million tons from a
target of 130
million… but in
January, they came
out and told us that
they expected
shipments to fall
only 1 or 2 million
tons… and the week
ending February
23rd, Chinese
ordered inventories
declined 6% year
over year, 2% from
the previous week,
23% from the high
reached in mid
September.. hey, you
know what this is
good… you have got
to believe that
things will only get
better as China’s
stimulus really gets
into gear… now,
remember this… this
is important…
China’s government
is stimulating the
economy… our
government is
stimulating Nancy
Pelosi's agenda…
already the price of
imported iron ore in
China is up by more
than 25% since
October… while the
price of hot rolled
steel is up more
than 35% since mid
November… these are
good numbers guys…
January unit sells
of new housing in
Beijing doubled year
over year.. what are
we down by like
1/8th …. and they
are using BHP’s
copper, not to
mention its other
raw materials in
those new homes.
BHP missed the
streets estimates
when it reported
last… come on, its
cash flow though
increased 74% and
its dividend was 41%
larger than last
year… the company
reduced its net debt
by 51%… this company
is doing everything
right… it’s a much
stronger balance
sheet than its
competitors… which
has allowed the
company to keep up
its spending growth
during the downturn…
other natural
resource plays are
cutting back, they
are scared… not BHP,
they are taking
advantage of falling
capital costs to
grow its business…
they are ready for
the next upturn…
which I think could
come sooner than
people realize for
BHP Billiton Ltd. (BHP).
The stock has
fallen… here is
another thing, you
are not getting in
this thing early… it
has already fallen
from $95 to $36...
4.5% yield… balance
sheet looking real
good… taking market
share… could raise
dividend further…
while other resource
plays struggle…
largest beneficiary
of China’s stimulus
package… it is also
Obama proof…. it is
based in Australia…
beyond the reach of
our President’s
ability to tax.
Here is the bottom
line…
▼ ▼
▼ ▼
▼
The
Bottom Line!:
You need to Obama
proof your
portfolio… that is
what we are going to
be doing all next
week… that means in
part you have to get
out of this country…
maybe as far from
this country as
possible… and the
first step is to
throw some
Australian
BHP Billiton Ltd. (BHP)
onto the bar-bie.
If you want to
Obama-proof your
portfolio, look to
China & Consider BHP
a buy...
BHP is it Obama
proof… I call it
Obama resistant… but
I have got to tell
you something… I
want you to put a
little BHP on the
bar-bie.
[verbatim recap]
▼ ▼
▼ ▼
▼
Jim went on after
this segment to take
questions from
callers, and
responded with his
comments...
```````````````````````````````````````````````````````````````````````````````````
Q:
I have a question
about stem cell
stocks, now that
Obama is in office,
what is that going
to do for stem cell
stocks? Is now a
good time to get in?
Jim:
No, no… I want you
out… I don’t think
that there is really
much there… I think
that it is really
important to
recognize that those
things had their
move and now you
have to sell, sell,
sell… sorry, I am
not going there… not
a lot of money is
going to be made off
of Obama… as a
matter of fact, I
think a lot of money
is going to be lost.
```````````````````````````````````````````````````````````````````````````````````
Q:
Hearing about the
changes coming thru
on the health plans,
and the medical. And
I was concerned
about
MedcoHealth Solutions Inc.
(MHS),
and what I am
hearing that the
ability of
prescription drugs
being sold from US
overseas, it will
allow that to
happen. And also, we
will have been long
term holders of
Medco, and they all
pay a dividend, so
it kind of goes
against some of the
things that you have
been saying, so I
just want your take
on it. I would like
your take on MHS?
Jim:
Look I think that
that whole industry
is now suddenly
challenged… I
thought that it
would be a great way
to play Obama…
because MHS holds
costs down, I happen
to love the CEO, he
was on TV earlier
this week on our
network… but in the
end this is just one
more company like
Express Scripts Inc. (ESRX),
that could find
itself squeezed… we
are going to hold
off MHS until it
gets to $35... and
there maybe it will
become Obama
resistant.
```````````````````````````````````````````````````````````````````````````````````
Q:
With Obama being in
office now, and I am
an avid investor of
Home Depot (HD).
I was wondering how
I should play that
with Obama being in
office, and how is
that going to affect
Home Depot?
Jim:
Well, I have got to
tell you that there
is a lot of believe…
just so you know…
retail cannot be
affected by Obama…
because sells taxes
are at a state
level… and it is
just unlikely that
he is going to
attack Home Depot
anytime soon… here
is my problem, Home
Depot I want to buy
between $18 and
$19... it had a nice
move back to $20...
the earnings were
better… the 4%
yields are fine… but
I am only
recommending one
retail stock and
that is
Wal-Mart (WMT*)…
now, of course,
Obama could take aim
at Wal-Mart… why,
because they have
such market share
and he seems to want
to take aim at
everything… but I
cannot recommend
Home Depot when I
have Wal-Mart
sitting down here…
that is my play… I
don’t want to touch
anything else in
retail.
```````````````````````````````````````````````````````````````````````````````````
[verbatim recap]
[end of segment]
Read Jim's next Segment
here
▼ ▼
▼ ▼
▼
Read Jim's next Segment
here
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
 |
|
|
 |
 |
|
|
|
Search for Jim's past comments about a specific
stock. Use
ticker symbol or company name in quotes
(e.g., GOOG or "Google") |
|
 |
|
|
|
|
|
|