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Opening Segment #3: |
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'Executive
Decision'
'Beer
Potential'
CEO
Interview
with
Peter
Swinburn,
CEO
Molson Coors |
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Thursday,
March 5, 2009 |
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Jim's
rating on
this stock |
STOCK
SYMBOL |
Closing
price that
day |
Full Company Name |
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TAP |
33.61 |
Molson Coors Brewing Company
(TAP)
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Jim:
It is clearer than
ever… that your
portfolio needs to
be recession
resistant and Obama
resistant as
possible… you have
to identify the
stocks that you can
buy on the way down…
because the
underlying companies
have the ability to
survive, and maybe
even thrive, in the
economic downturn…
or certainly after…
even if it turns out
to be a garden
variety depression…
and you don’t want
stocks that have too
much exposure to the
President’s
unbelievably large
agenda… as he has
proven that he can
bring down entire
sectors just like
this…. and hasn’t
yet shown that he is
anything but
indifferent to the
plight of
shareholders… in
fact, he is a short
sellers dream come
true.
Which brings me to
Molson Coors(TAP)…
the number one
brewer in Canada,
and the third
largest in the
United States… now,
I have a feeling
that it is a little
Obama resistant,
although, that man
is so powerful I
don’t know… because
50% of its operating
profits are from
Canada…which is
still I believe
beyond the reach of
the President… the
company may not be
totally immune, but
at least it has been
vaccinated…
ordinarily we think
of brewers as being
recession resistant
too… as people
generally don’t stop
knocking back Coors
when thinks get
tough, maybe they
trade down to
Keystone when they
feel really
squeezed… that still
means that Molson
Coors is making some
money… this morning
In-Bev reported, and
the results really
weren’t pretty… they
said that the total
beer volumes fell
.8% in 2008... how
could you ever not
drink as much beer
as the year before…
and the fourth
quarter was a week
period with volumes
down across the
whole group… so does
TAP belong in an
Obama resistant
portfolio…. well
Molson Coors itself
reported a
disappointing
quarter on February
10th, my birthday…
with weakness coming
from currency… which
accounted for 55% of
the year over year
decline in profit…
commodity inflation
was bad… lower sales
volume in major
markets… there was
some silver lining
though as TAP
managed to achieve
revenue growth per
barrel in all the
markets it serves…
that’s good… TAP
ensured doesn’t need
TARP… it is Tiny Tim
Geithner resistant.
Now, yesterday was
TAP’s analyst day,
there was some hope
that the company
would announce some
dividend increase…
didn’t happen… 2.3%
yield… potential to
raise its dividends
as its payout ratio
is substantially
lower than its
peers… TAP did
announce cash flow
guidance for 2009 of
roughly $3 a share,
the dividend is .80
cents a share… a lot
of room for
increase… the
company also
announced a new cost
saving program…
shave off $100
million costs
annually from 2010
to 2012.… TAP
indicated the
Miller-Coors, that
is their joint
venture SAB Miller,
all of their US
operations will come
under one roof, will
likely exceed their
initial target of
$500 million in cost
savings… look, I
think this one could
fit in an Obama
resistant portfolio…
but you know what,
let’s hear from
Peter Swinburn, the
CEO of Molson Coors
and find out...
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See comments continued below...
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Thursday,
March 5, 2009
(Cont'd from
above)...
Jim (cont'd):
Start of:
CEO
Interview
with
Tom Farrell,
CEO
Dominion
Resources...
Jim:
Mr. Swinburn, welcome
to Mad Money...
Peter:
Hi Jim, how
are you?
Jim:
I don’t know,
when I read that
people aren’t
drinking as much
beer, it calls into
question the basic
human nature. Are we
really in a moment
where people will
have fewer Coors,
because they are
worried about their
paycheck and tax
increases?
Peter:
Just for the
record, our volumes
are actually up in
’08, so we weren’t
in the same bag as
ABM Bev. And we have
generally been
finding in the
markets, pretty
developed markets,
that outside of the
UK, the business is
pretty resilient is
what we are finding.
Jim:
Well then why
not pay a bigger
dividend. Because
you have got huge
cash flow, you have
got great
management, and it
is pretty much given
even in this tough
time that you have
volume growth. How
about returning more
to the shareholders?
Peter:
Yeah, it is
an option that we
keep under review on
a constant basis.
You know we will
have cash generated
next year, we are
looking forward to
that. On an ongoing
basis we do exactly
the same, we look at
the best way to use
that cash, and the
best way is always
to try to get the
best return for the
shareholder. So if
you look at the
backend of last
year, we put $100
million into a
pension fund, one of
our pension funds in
the UK. And given
the equity markets,
given the fixed
income markets, to
us it was a pretty
good investment. It
should give long
term mid single
digit plus returns
to investors. Plus
we get the tax
benefit on that. We
are using money. We
will decide at which
point is the way to
use that money
Jim:
I hear and read
from the call this
morning that Bud, I
am holding up a can
of Bud right now, I
know you can’t see
it… is spending
less… I start to
think media prices
are going down… you
guys dominate, and I
love those ads,
during the NFL where
you get the coaches
talking but they are
not really talking…
is this an
opportunity for you
to start taking some
share against a
beleaguered Bud that
seems to be run by
people that don’t
understand, at least
in my view, the
American beer
system?
Peter:
We have put
Miller and Coors to
create the second
biggest beer company
in the US, and that
is really doing
well. And that is
really what we are
focused on. So we
announced yesterday
increased spend on
the Miller Light
Brown, and getting
Miller Light and
Coors Light singing
together, the light
beer market in the
US accounts for 50%
of the market. So if
you get the light
market right you get
the market right.
Coors Light has been
growing now for 15
consecutive
quarters. Getting
Miller Light right
as well, and we are
putting a lot of
money behind that,
really is what we
are trying to
achieve in the
market. And we are
pretty sure that we
are going to be
successful.
Jim:
Okay, I am
holding up a
Keystone and a
Coors… we have a can
here and the price
of that metal has
come down… we have a
bottle here, the
price of the bottle
has come down… we
have ingredients
that are I think
cheaper than last
year. Are we looking
at the possibility
of a second half,
having dramatically
year over year cost
declines in the
commodities that it
takes produce beer.
Peter:
Yes, like
most companies we
hedge to even out
any volatility. So
we benefited on the
inflation rise, and
we will take
something of a hit
coming down the
other side. It won’t
be dramatic, but we
will see benefits
coming thru in tunes
of input inflation
towards the second
half of the year,
undoubtedly.
Jim:
We have become
very tax happy in
the country because
we have a lot of
deficits, a natural
thing for a
President might be,
or a governor, might
be to slap on a .50
cent per case beer
tax. Are you
worried?
Peter:
Yeah, it is
something that we
watch out for. And
the main reason we
watch out for it is
just about the
consumers. I mean
consumers are
strapped already,
and putting more tax
on them for whatever
source, especially
for excise just
doesn’t work.
Jim:
Yeah, I agree
with you. Now when I
go to a bar, am I
going to, are the
American people or
wherever your
markets are, are
they trading down?
Are they buying less
expensive beer?
Peter:
It is like
most industries, you
get a variation
across the piece.
But if you look at
the North American
markets, pretty
reversed. I mean we
are seeing trading
down from spirits
and wine into beer,
but the beer market
is trading down as
well. But the
overall market is
reversed, and we
announced coming
into the new year we
saw volume increase
in January in the US
market, and which we
are very pleased
about following on
the price increases
that we dropped at
the back end of the
quarter.
Jim:
Do you think
there is a chance
one day you will
have 50% share of
this market?
Peter:
You know we
put Miller and Coors
together, sorry the
Miller business and
the Coors business
together to produce
the best beer
business in the US,
and that is our aim.
Jim:
So again
though, do you have
a chance to take
dramatic share here
now that Bud is with
In Bev, and that
company seems to be
reeling a little
bit?
Peter:
I come back
to the same point
Jim, it is really
about getting your
grounds working for
you effectively. And
we have got work to
do with Miller
Light, and we are on
the road for that.
Coors Light is doing
exceptionally well.
We have got a brand
called MG64, which
is a low-carb, low
calorie brand which
is doing
exceptionally well.
Those three brands
together could have
a real impact on the
light beer market.
And we are convinced
that they will.
Jim:
Excellent,
Peter Swinburn, CEO
of Molson Coors,
thank you very much
sir for coming on
Mad Money.
Peter:
Thank you.
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Jim's
comments AFTER the
interview:
Alright look… I
am worried about
taxes… I am
worried about
the trade down…
you heard that
he hedged a
little so that
it is not going
to be that
dramatic in the
second half… it
is an
interesting
stock… it is all
the way down… I
tell you what…
he boosts that
dividend… you
will find me
buying some
Coors… and not
just at the bar.
[verbatim recap]
[end of segment]
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