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Friday,
March 6, 2009
(Cont'd from
above)...
Jim (cont'd):
I am conscious of
these possibilities
because I was asked
to produce a list of
positives for my
appearance on the
Colbert report last
night…. Steven
Colbert wanted me to
come armed with some
linings of the
silver variety… in
case he wanted to go
that route on the
show… now I am
incredibly aware
that this is a
comedy show… albeit
a pointed one… and
the need to come up
with positives can
be a false thrust…
especially after
getting hit with yet
another hard
unemployment number
like the one that we
got hit with this
morning…
unemployment over
8%, worst in over 25
years… and a week
that saw yes another
7% drop in the
averages… the worst
of 2009, so far…
what did I come up…
oh not a whole lot…
but in the interest
of being
constructive…
although, more
anecdotal than
empirical.
Here we go… the
litany of what might
be better than it
was 3 months ago…
using that bench
mark as the
determinate… or the
control, if you want
to get all
scientific on me… we
are being rigorous
here, this is
Dragnet style, Joe
Friday just the
facts ma'am list…
which has the added
irony of being done
on a Friday… so I am
not including things
that could
potentially go
right… or things
that aren’t are as
bad as I though… as
Obama could drop the
tax increases… and
not accelerate his
cap-n-trade program…
which would make
things better…. or
that we could be at
10% unemployment
now, instead of just
8%… in other words,
sure we would do
better if Obama
lifted the jaboob
from the economies
neck… but let’s not
factor in hope…
especially after
Obama’s failed
attempt this week to
call a bottom…. just
looking at the
facts, at what has
improved over the
last 3 months… I
call it link quarter
analysis… here is
the list.
First, some of
retail was better
than expected this
week… if things were
truly horrible and
getting worse, than
Wal-Mart, America’s
largest retailer…
would have had a
negative, what is
know as comp store
or same store sales
number… as fewer
people would have
shopped even at the
ultimate trade down
retail play… instead
of having an
outstandingly
positive number that
it reported…. yes,
Wal-Mart had better
sales in February
than it did
relatively in
December… that does
matter… it means
that the consumer
does still have a
pulse… don’t need
the paddles yet…
people are still
spending, although
not at the pricier
establishments… as
they are being hit
even harder…
Wal-Mart is the
biggest in the
industry, so it
trumps the weakness
in some of the
higher end places…
we also had Family
Dollar, the largest
dollar store in the
country… and Big
Lots, the largest
close-out retailer,
saying good things…
if the economy were
truly in a
Depression… then
even the dollar
stores would feel
the pinch and see
lower same store
sales… all that
said, had I told
Colbert that the
good news is that
dollar store sales
are soaring, I think
he would have had a
field day with that
data… if I could
anticipate the great
one… how well did
the nickel and penny
stores do, Jim.
The second positive,
pricing is firming
for some
semi-conductors
because the
inventory overhang
had been worked off…
analysts raised
Qualcomm numbers the
other day, I own
that one for
my charitable trust,
ActionAlertsPlus.com…
as the chip maker
for cell phones is
actually doing
better than it was
in December… not
that it mattered the
stock got pancaked
anyway… but that
data point doesn’t
mean that the end
marks are getting
better… it doesn’t
give tech a reason
to rally… in fact, I
really don’t think
that the end markets
are doing better at
all… Mark Hurd,
Hewlett Packards’s
incredibly honest
CEO, which I bought
that stock this week
for
my charitable trust…
said as much this
week when he
admitted he is not
seeing any increase
in demand
whatsoever… but
February was better
than December for
the stocks… the
semi-conductor
index… which in
December were only
worth about the
price of single sock
that you left in the
Wash-N-Dry, because
you can’t afford to
buy a washing
machine anymore.
Third, copper
inventories are
down… oil stopped
going down and metal
prices are going up,
these are all signs
of increased demand…
and the fact that
these prices are all
higher than they
were in the month of
December, is good
news… it means that
there is some
economic activity
going on somewhere…
aluminum and nickel
prices are up in
price since then
too… and the
shipping rates have
increased… these are
all positive signs,
even if they are
being driven by the
Chinese Communists
and not us… those
wacky communists
they now how to
apotheosize
capitalist… we just
know how to
euthanize fat cats.
Fourth, well… yeah,
why not… there are
some better things…
while many companies
are cutting their
dividends… including
Wells Fargo, which
by the way triggered
a big bank rally
when it raised its
dividend… now
looking pretty
stupid about that,
last July… we did
see dividend boosts
from both Coke and
Kimberly Clark… now
we know that Coke is
a universal brand,
how do we know this…
because it got both
Jamal and the even
more cynical Selene
to leave their shed
in “Slumdog”…
Kimberly, a lot of
people crying… need
the Kleenex.
And fifth, well um…
fifth, um, I don’t
have a fifth
positive… I just
don’t… these are the
only improvements
that I can find
right now… so am I
too negative… I
don’t think so… none
of these things
trump major job
losses, banking
failures, the steady
40% decline in cars
being sold, or the
appalling
destruction of
wealth on Main
Street caused by the
stock markets
collapse… nah, these
handful of quad
positives they don’t
counter in the fear
in the death of
optimism surrounding
Obama’s budget…
which I believe
should be put
totally on hold
until the economy
improves… even
though I actually
favor the specifics…
Obama should declare
war on unemployment…
and delay his poorly
times agenda until
the war is won.
Here is something
that is worse than
it was 3 months ago…
in December I
thought we had a
banking plan… Tiny
Tim Geithner failed
to deliver… no
surprise there… can
someone please tell
me why Wall Street
cheered this guy’s
appointment… I have
been thinking about
it and I realize
now, Geithner’s
inaction have robbed
more banks than
Bonnie and Clyde,
and Willy Sutton,
put together… to put
it bluntly… the
rambid pessimism and
despair are based,
in-rooted in fact…
we are dramatically
worse off than we
were in December,
and while that can
improve if the
President focused
only on creating
jobs and stabilizing
or raising housing
prices… while
putting his
aggressive agenda
that up-ends
business, and skins
the fat cats on
hold… then maybe we
can get somewhere….
otherwise…
The bottom line is…
▼ ▼
▼ ▼
▼
 The Bottom Line!:
Unless and until
that happens… I
stand squarely in
the camp that says
that there are not
enough material
facts to state that
things are better
not worse than they
were 3 months ago…
it is true that I
did an analysis
today for
TheStreet.com, where
I factored in every
single stock from
bottoms up… using
all bear cases … all
bear cases… and I
came up with 5320
for the Dow,
5,320... but you
know what, until the
market reflects the
negative facts,
believe me… and I
wish they were the
other way around… I
am not going to
dance the 1000 bull
dance on Mad Money.
Based on facts
alone, the economy
is worse off than it
was three months
ago... I
am not being too
negative… there are
not enough facts to
say that things are
better… at least for
the moment.
[verbatim recap]
▼ ▼
▼ ▼
▼
Jim went on after
this segment to take
questions from
callers, and
responded with his
comments...
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Q:
Hudson City Bancorp (HCBK)....
they didn’t
take any TARP money,
they increased their
dividend the first
quarter. Do you see
them as being a bank
that is doing things
good? Where do you
see them in the
future?
Jim:
It doesn’t matter,
every single bank is
going down here… the
short sellers know
that they can break
any bank right now,
they are doing it
very effectively…
and I do not push
any bank on this
show… because as
you… you will hear
my outrage later… as
long as the bank
stocks are in the
grips of the short
sellers, it really
doesn’t matter how
well they are doing…
including Mr.
Hermance (CEO), who
is doing a pretty
darn good job.
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Q:
While I have been
watching this market
thing, you know, and
I believe in
positive thinking.
And everything seems
so negative lately,
if you think that
all the negative
reporting by
commentators and
analysts actually
causes the market to
drop, where positive
reporting will cause
a rally?
Jim:
Well, I gotta tell
you… I come out here
many nights and say
that there are
business men are
heroes, business
women who are
heroes… on down days
I try to come out
with positives, like
when the market is
really down, I try
to give you another
side… I cannot speak
for anyone else in
the media, because I
am part of the
media… but I try my
best to come up with
positives when I
think they are
there… and I don’t
see enough right now
to change my mind.
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[verbatim recap]
[end of segment]
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