Opening Segment #3:
'Oil's Well?'
Thursday, March 19, 2009
 

Jim's
rating on
this stock

STOCK
SYMBOL

Closing
price that
day

Full Company Name

BP*

40.21

BP plc (BP*)



BPT

61.35

BP Prudhoe Bay Royalty Trust (BPT)



Jim:     Everybody's focused on Washington right now, and they're missing the biggest story out there... And what's that?... It's the story of oil breaking through $50 a barrel today... back to where it should be... even as the oil stocks do not reflect yet the recovery in crude prices...

I think oil is still the best place to be...

I have said over and over again that I don't think the commodity's going back to the $30s, even though that is the consensus view... but the stocks reflect that consensus view...

For example,
BP plc (BP*), which is my favorite of the integrated oils right here... a stock that I like so much that I bought it for my charitable trust, ActionAlertsPlus.com... It's trading at the same price it was when oil was under $40. I mean, how on earth does that make any sense, now that oil is over $50, especially when BP just said at a big analyst meeting, that $50 was the magic number in terms of keeping its notoriously big dividend, a juicy 8.3% yield, in tact.

We're at $50 now... I say this about BP... Let it rock, let it rock, let it rock...

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Market Results today:

Dow:  - 85

Nasdaq:  - 7

S&P 500:  - 10

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Thursday, March 19, 2009
(Cont'd from above)...


Jim (cont'd):


Alright now, how about a stock that gives you an even bigger dividend from the rise in oil?... Something that should spring higher as crude gets more expensive?...

I've got got one for you...

BP Prudhoe Bay Royalty Trust (BPT)...

The company is a subsidiary of BP, and usually we don't go for those, but this time, it's an energy trust. It means it has to pay out nearly all of its profits to shareholders. And, in exchange, it doesn't pay taxes.

Now, the stock had a big run today... Look, I mean, it did... So maybe you wait for a pullback, before you start building a position?... But, even up 6% today, BPT still yields 10.7%...

Even better, you can expect the dividend to increase, as oil prices increase...

How many companies can say that they're in a position right now to raise their payouts to shareholders...

There may not be blood, but there will be profits...

Right now, we like BPT because it's the energy trust with the highest correlation to oil prices. Essentially, it's one-for-one... The share price should be about 100% levered to oil prices... Where's the opportunity in that?... As crude goes higher, BPT should follow... but oil prices are up about 52% from their 52-week low, and BPT is only up about 23% from its 52-week low. You see the imbalance?...

That means that, even if oil prices just stand still, BPT's stock, at $61, still has about $15... 15 more points of upside left, just to catch up to crude. I'm calling this a "57 varieties ketchup trade."

BPT's main property is the Prudhoe Bay field in the North Slope in Alaska. It's been in production since '77... 55 million barrels in net crude reserves. 10-year reserve life. That's how long it can play. It's dependable.

The company's last quarterly dividend... $1.637 a share. But, remember, that was when oil prices were taking a beating. BPT's quarterly dividend was as high as $3.05 a share, just back in July, when prices were higher. Is it going to be that high again?... No. Not anytime soon. But, as oil prices recover, the dividend should stabilize and move up some, and I still regard oil in a recovery mode, particularly now that the dollar is weak, and people are frantic for commodity exposure.

Now I don't think crude stops at these levels; I think it goes higher. I'm using a $60 price target here. Demand for oil may have come down, but new supply from drilling has fallen off a cliff...

Rig count... lowest level since June of 2004. There are only 241 rigs operating. That's down 45% from November... 45% from November 7th... In just five months, we've dropped all the new rigs we've added in the last four years. I mean, that's unbelievable... All the more reason to like BP and BPT.

On February 26th, I recommended another energy trust... That was
Permian Basin Royalty Trust (PBT)... at $8.04. The stock's now at $10.21. That's a 27% gain. That's better than a sharp drill bit in the eye... Now, I'm not abandoning PBT. I just like BPT more, because it's a better play on higher oil prices... no natural gas. Natural gas keeps going down.

Here's the bottom line...

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The Bottom Line!:

The big story today should not be the AIG bonuses, as much as we all hate those guys... It's that oil's back above $50. I think it's headed $10 higher. I think you want to take a look at BP plc (BP*) and BP Prudhoe Bay Royalty Trust (BPT) as terrific dividend catch-up plays. They're trading like crude is in the $30s.

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[verbatim recap]

[end of segment]


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