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Opening Segment #3: |
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'Oil's
Well?' |
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Thursday,
March 19, 2009 |
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Jim's
rating on
this stock |
STOCK
SYMBOL |
Closing
price that
day |
Full Company Name |
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BP* |
40.21 |
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BPT |
61.35 |
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BP Prudhoe Bay Royalty Trust
(BPT)
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Jim:
Everybody's focused
on Washington right
now, and they're
missing the biggest
story out there...
And what's that?...
It's the story of
oil breaking through
$50 a barrel
today... back to
where it should
be... even as the
oil stocks do not
reflect yet the
recovery in crude
prices...
I think oil is still
the best place to
be...
I have said over and
over again that I
don't think the
commodity's going
back to the $30s,
even though that is
the consensus
view... but the
stocks reflect that
consensus view...
For example,
BP plc (BP*),
which is my favorite
of the integrated
oils right here... a
stock that I like so
much that I bought
it for
my charitable trust,
ActionAlertsPlus.com...
It's trading at the
same price it was
when oil was under
$40. I mean, how on
earth does that make
any sense, now that
oil is over $50,
especially when BP
just said at a big
analyst meeting,
that $50 was the
magic number in
terms of keeping its
notoriously big
dividend, a juicy
8.3% yield, in tact.
We're at $50 now...
I say this about
BP... Let it rock,
let it rock, let it
rock...
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See comments continued below...
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Thursday,
March 19, 2009
(Cont'd from
above)...
Jim (cont'd):
Alright now, how
about a stock that
gives you an even
bigger dividend from
the rise in oil?...
Something that
should spring higher
as crude gets more
expensive?...
I've got got one for
you...
BP Prudhoe Bay Royalty Trust
(BPT)...
The company is a
subsidiary of BP,
and usually we don't
go for those, but
this time, it's an
energy trust. It
means it has to pay
out nearly all of
its profits to
shareholders. And,
in exchange, it
doesn't pay taxes.
Now, the stock had a
big run today...
Look, I mean, it
did... So maybe you
wait for a pullback,
before you start
building a
position?... But,
even up 6% today,
BPT still yields
10.7%...
Even better, you can
expect the dividend
to increase, as oil
prices increase...
How many companies
can say that they're
in a position right
now to raise their
payouts to
shareholders...
There may not be
blood, but there
will be profits...
Right now, we like
BPT because it's the
energy trust with
the highest
correlation to oil
prices. Essentially,
it's one-for-one...
The share price
should be about 100%
levered to oil
prices... Where's
the opportunity in
that?... As crude
goes higher, BPT
should follow... but
oil prices are up
about 52% from their
52-week low, and BPT
is only up about 23%
from its 52-week
low. You see the
imbalance?...
That means that,
even if oil prices
just stand still,
BPT's stock, at $61,
still has about
$15... 15 more
points of upside
left, just to catch
up to crude. I'm
calling this a "57
varieties ketchup
trade."
BPT's main property
is the Prudhoe Bay
field in the North
Slope in Alaska.
It's been in
production since
'77... 55 million
barrels in net crude
reserves. 10-year
reserve life. That's
how long it can
play. It's
dependable.
The company's last
quarterly
dividend... $1.637 a
share. But,
remember, that was
when oil prices were
taking a beating.
BPT's quarterly
dividend was as high
as $3.05 a share,
just back in July,
when prices were
higher. Is it going
to be that high
again?... No. Not
anytime soon. But,
as oil prices
recover, the
dividend should
stabilize and move
up some, and I still
regard oil in a
recovery mode,
particularly now
that the dollar is
weak, and people are
frantic for
commodity exposure.
Now I don't think
crude stops at these
levels; I think it
goes higher. I'm
using a $60 price
target here. Demand
for oil may have
come down, but new
supply from drilling
has fallen off a
cliff...
Rig count... lowest
level since June of
2004. There are only
241 rigs operating.
That's down 45% from
November... 45% from
November 7th... In
just five months,
we've dropped all
the new rigs we've
added in the last
four years. I mean,
that's
unbelievable... All
the more reason to
like BP and BPT.
On February 26th, I
recommended another
energy trust... That
was
Permian Basin Royalty Trust
(PBT)...
at $8.04. The
stock's now at
$10.21. That's a 27%
gain. That's better
than a sharp drill
bit in the eye...
Now, I'm not
abandoning PBT. I
just like BPT more,
because it's a
better play on
higher oil prices...
no natural gas.
Natural gas keeps
going down.
Here's the bottom
line...
▼ ▼
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The Bottom
Line!:
The big story today
should not be the
AIG bonuses, as much
as we all hate those
guys... It's that
oil's back above
$50. I think it's
headed $10 higher. I
think you want to
take a look at
BP plc (BP*)
and
BP Prudhoe Bay Royalty Trust
(BPT)
as terrific dividend
catch-up plays.
They're trading like
crude is in the
$30s.
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[verbatim
recap]
[end of segment]
Read Jim's next Segment
here
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