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Opening Segment #3: |
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'The
Sell Block'
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Thursday,
March 26, 2009 |
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Jim's
rating on
this stock |
STOCK
SYMBOL |
Closing
price that
day |
Full Company Name |
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BK |
28.16 |
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Bank of New York Mellon
Corp. (BK)
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STT |
30.12 |
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Jim:
It is jail break
time in the Sell
Block… it is time to
spring two bank
stocks that could
turn into the banks
to own… if
everything works out
the way I expect… we
are going from here
to here with these
two… and the stocks
are…
Bank of New York Mellon
Corp. (BK)….
and
State Street Corp. (STT)…
alright now you need
to get used to these
two names because
they could be the
biggest winners in
finance going
forward just as they
have been among the
biggest losers…
these two are
getting a genuine
government sponsored
break out from the
Sell Block… I call
it prisoner release…
but that would make
the whole make the
whole thing sound a
lot less dramatic
than it really is…
here is the jest…
what you need to
know...
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See comments continued below...
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Thursday,
March 26, 2009
(Cont'd from
above)...
Jim
(cont'd):
It now seems
as though
the federal
government
is going to
favor new
accounting
rules that
could have
fabulous
consequences
for State
Street and
Bank of New
York… I
think the
government
is finally
going to
adopt the
things that
we have been
talking
about on Mad
Money… it is
going to
show what is
known as
forbearance…
that is the
plan that I
have been
advocating
all along…
it is going
to allow
them to work
out their
troubled
assets over
time… rather
than
pressuring
them to take
losses on
the books
that would
cause these
two banks to
have a
severe hitch
to their
capital… and
for banks it
is all about
having the
necessary
capital, or
money, it is
a Wall
Street
word...
capital…
that is the
difference
between
survival and
being forced
to become a
ward of the
state like
that Nouriel
Roubini
keeps
reiterating
now that he
has
obviously
missed the
bull boat…
he is some
professor
who comes on
and just
tells you to
sell
everything,
that was
good for a
while wasn’t
it.
If the feds
move from
strict mark
to marketing
accounting
to more
model based
accounting,
the biggest
beneficiaries
actually may
not be the
biggest
banks that
have rallied
so hard… it
could be
Bank of New York Mellon
Corp. (BK)
and
State Street Corp. (STT)…
two
companies
that have
otherwise
basically no
mortgage
risk… so if
the
accounting
rules change
like we
except these
two will
soar… I know
I am like a
national TV
show is like
I am talking
about mark
to market
and
modeling, I
guess I am
supposed to
dumb it
down… no, I
am not going
to do it, it
is too
important, I
know your
eyes are
glazing over
so let me
just say
that mark to
market to
modeling
accounting,
I know that
it is not
the sexy
kind of
modeling…
what it
means is
that the
government
has been a
big bully,
it has been
telling the
stocks,
telling the
banks that
they have to
sell a lot
of stock and
get their
act together
fast… it has
been
killing, all
the stocks
have been
killing your
stock… now I
am seeing a
change, it
won’t be
talked about
because the
government
doesn’t want
to say, hey,
despite how
much you
hate the
banks we are
going easy
on them, we
are going to
look the
other way at
their
losses… no,
they are not
going to do
that.
But trust
me, it is a
huge change
and only a
handful of
people
expect it…
and my
source, I
think that
they know
it… now you
should
absolutely
not by State
Street of
Bank of New
York
tomorrow…
this is a
slow and
deliberate
jail break…
remember,
tomorrow the
President is
meeting with
the big bank
CEO’s to
talk about
TARP… they
are
summoning
the banking
equivalent
of the heads
of the five
families… a
mafia
reference
for the Wall
Street
gangsters…
and it might
not turn out
all that
honky dory…
why, it is
very
possible
that all
these banks
that have
been talking
about
returning
the TARP
money and
getting out
from under
the thumb of
big brother…
will be told
that they
will not be
allowed to
return the
money, cause
it would
cause a
chain
reaction of
weakness for
the bad
banks… and
the good
banks would
get too many
good
personal… in
other words,
it would
cause havoc…
that means
this bank
rally which
has been
predicated
upon TARP
money being
returned… it
is going to
lose some
steam… that
means I
expect
stocks to
get hit… it
is not the
end of the
world… it is
just the end
of the short
term bank
rally… it is
why I am
telling you
to wait
until Monday
when this
meeting is
over and the
potential
damage is
done before
you pull the
trigger… and
I do want
you to pull
the trigger
because I
really got a
good handle
on these
accounting
rules… on
State Street
and Bank of
New York…
buy them on
weakness…
because we
never chase
here on this
show, we buy
weakness,
Now State
Street and
Bank of New
York they
are in great
businesses…
there are
all kinds of
different
banks… asset
managers,
like Lake
Mace & Tiero…
brokers,
Goldman and
Morgan…
diversified
banks, Bank
of America
and JP
Morgan…
those have
retail,
commercial,
institutional…
and then you
have what
are known as
the
custodian or
trust banks…
that is Bank
of New York
and State
Street…
these are
bankers
banks… these
companies
are
custodians
of other
banks money
and stock…
what a
fabulous
business…
they service
those assets
and run some
of those as
well.
Now, Bank of
New York
largest of
these banks,
$20.2
trillion of
assets under
custody…
$827 billion
in assets
under
management…
it services
more than
$11 trillion
in debt…
processes
$1.8
trillion in
global
payments
everyday…
believe it
or not, this
company is
actually
doing really
well… I mean
it is a bank
and it is
doing well…
it gained
market share
in most of
its segments
in 2008,
which was a
terrible
year right…
got $1 new
trillion in
new
business…
holy cow… it
was selected
as the sole
provider of
a broad
range of
custodial
and
corporate
trusts
services… it
supported
TARP.. so
you know the
government
is in these
guys… the
government
is backing
these guys…
clears over
50% of the
US
governments
transactions…
what a
franchise.
How about
State Street Corp. (STT)?…
They are the
third
largest
trust bank…
another one
that the
government
can’t let go
down the
drain… $12
trillion in
assets… $1.4
trillion of
assets under
management…
the company
is
essentially
the keeper
of your
mutual funds
and
pensions, it
is of mine I
always see
their name…
big servicer
of
institutional
investors…
your mutual
fund assets
are probably
at State
Street bank…
that is
where much
of them are
kept… they
store the
money, they
get paid big
fees for
doing so..
that is a
fabulous
business…
about 35% of
State
Street’s
revenues
come from
servicing
fees… oh
man, clean,
recurring
sources of
revenue…
frankly I
don’t see
how State
Street stays
independent…
it is that
much of a
money
machine if
these
accounting
changes come
thru… it
can’t stay
independent,
it is too
cheap… given
how
consistent
and
lucrative
their core
business is.
Now, Goldman
Sachs
researched
both of the
stocks this
month,
telling you…
you have to
dump the
State
Street,
starting to
worry about
the current
accounting
regime, they
think it
will crush
them… I
think that
firm is
wrong… the
rules are
going to
get, the
interpretation
of the rules
are going to
get better
not worse…
in fact,
these
companies
might even
have some of
their losses
reversed,
and booked
as gains…
and how much
will the
street love
that… Bank
of New York
has been cut
in half by
this stuff…
State Street
by 2/3’s…
look for
them to
reverse, and
reverse hard
when
everyone
gets wind of
what you
just heard
on Mad
Money.
The bottom
line…
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Jim's
comments AFTER the
interview:
We are springing
Bank of New York Mellon
Corp. (BK)
and
State Street Corp. (STT)
from the Sell Block…
remember, do your
homework… I don’t
think that you
should buy these
until Monday because
of that President’s
meeting with the
CEO’s and I think
that it is going to
bring an end, just
to the short term
rally in the banks…
if these accounting
standards I talk
about are changed…
then Bank of New
York and State
Street will lead the
come back… with the
wave of an
accounting wand,
they could have the
least risk and the
most reward… you get
the bank stock sell
off, I want you to
reach for State
Street and Bank of
New York first… and
save the rest for
later.
BK & STT should be
free from the sell
block as of
tomorrow, but don’t
consider buying
before Monday...
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[verbatim
recap]
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Jim went on after
this segment to take
questions from
callers, and
responded with his
comments...
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Q:
I would like your
take on the
following because
Goldman Sachs (GS*)
said they wanted to
repay their TARP
money and get out
from under the
restrictions. Okay,
AIG
(AIG)
took $85b in
government money,
Goldman got $10b,
now AIG owes Goldman
$20b, they pay them
TARP funds and then
Goldman turns around
gives $10b back to
the government and
say that they want
to get out from
under the string. Is
that possible?
Jim:
Alright, first of
all I am not sure
that the government
really wants them
all to return the
TARP money… cause
let’s say that you
are
Bank of America (BAC),
and you don’t return
the TARP money and
Goldman does, well
if you are working
for
Merrill Lynch
(MER)
in New York and you
can’t get a bonus,
why wouldn’t you not
just quit and go
right to work for
Goldman… that is an
unintended
consequence that the
government has to
think about…
secondly look, on
the AIG/Goldman…
AIG, Goldman hedged
against the risk of
AIG, the government
took over AIG so the
government paid
Goldman… and Goldman
also won the jackpot
on the risk…
sometimes it is
better to be lucky
than good, and that
is what they were…
no one saw this… I
have devoted whole
shows to AIG… there
are many shows and
many blogs that say
that I didn’t see
anything coming…
last year at this
time I told you to
sell, sell, sell
AIG… I told you to
sell it 2 years ago…
I have been standing
here telling you to
sell AIG for the
better part of 70
points… and the fact
that nobody notices…
well, you did
because you watch
the show.
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Q:
Bank of America (BAC)
got downgraded to
junk status by
Moody’s. You know
what I think?... It
is about time.
Jim:
Isn’t that
something… Well, you
know what?...
I am glad I don’t
work… I have been
getting in trouble
lately bashing
people and things
and stuff… all I can
tell you is if I
worked at Moody’s
and now you
downgrade it, after
the second
depression that we
have ever had, which
is what I believe
started in September
and maybe just
ended… I don’t know…
I mean I think you
should do a better
job… if I worked at
Moody’s I would be a
team that never made
the play offs… and I
think you change
coaches when you
never make the
playoffs.
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Q:
I would like to
profit from
companies buying
toxic assets from
the banks, is
The Blackstone Group (BX)
good for this?
Jim:
Yeah, they are…
yeah, Blackstone
will do well and I
think that that is a
reasonable
opportunity… I think
the guys who are
going to do best are
the guys who are
putting together
little funds to do
it… and they are a
better buy… but
those guys are real
great promoters… and
now they are
probably going to
hate that I said
that… I don’t care…
gee, I like telling
the truth… but the
truth is so
dangerous.
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[verbatim recap]
[end of segment]
Read Jim's next Segment
here
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