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Opening Segment #3: |
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'Daily
Dose of
Dividends'
'Clean
Slate' |
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Friday,
March 27, 2009 |
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Jim's
rating on
this stock |
STOCK
SYMBOL |
Closing
price that
day |
Full Company Name |
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CLX |
51.70 |
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Jim:
What do we do now…
after the huge rally
this week in the
cyclical stocks… the
ones that do well
when the economy
recovers… they got a
bit of a pullback…
so do I think you
should buy them if
you missed this
move… no, that is
not what I would do…
what is the smart
play then… alright,
when I used to run a
half a billion
dollars at my hedge
fund, after a move
like this I would
want to find a good
counter trend name…
something that other
people have been
selling or dumping I
think irrationally…
in order to pile
into the hotter
stocks… I hated to
chase stocks… I
liked stocks of
excellent companies
that were being
thrown away out of
one these mindless
rotations out of the
non-fashionable and
into the
fashionable… I
attribute my record,
24% annually after
all fees over a 14
year period,
unmatched during the
years that I worked
as a hedge fund
manager… to
precisely to going
against the grain
mentality… I have
always pondered the
records of the
critics… but then
again, they either
don’t have one or
they got pantsed by
me...
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See comments continued below...
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Friday,
March 27, 2009
(Cont'd from
above)...
Jim
(cont'd):
This is a
really good
time to try
to find a
really good
consumer
products
company…
something
that is not
really sexy
but pays a
solid
dividend…
and is able
to raise
that
dividend…
and right
now I am
liking
Clorox Co. (CLX)…
you find a
company with
good long
term
prospects
that are
improving by
the quarter
because of
good new
management…
and you just
start
putting it
away… while
all of the
big boys are
much more
interested
in the
stocks that
have spent
all week
rallying and
rallying
hard… they
are late… we
are early.
Now, I have
been talking
about the
dividend
boosters all
week as part
of a series…
explaining
that yes,
you are
capable of
picking your
own stocks
and beating
the markets…
unlike the
myriad
advocates of
index funds,
those are
people who
have
probably
never owned
stocks in
their life,
but are
convinced
that it is
impossible
for an
ordinary
person to
make money
in them…
unlike them,
I know that
that is
garbage…
because I
would beat
the market
all the time
at my old
hedge fund…
with all
kind of
constraints
that an
individual
investor
like you
doesn’t
have… and
since
retiring, I
have run a
charitable
trust that
makes it
very
difficult to
trade
because of
all the
restrictions
that I have
had… but I
have still
managed to
beat the
market
handily with
that, you
can follow
along with
my
charitable
trust if you
want to… go
to
TheStreet.com,
where I am
chairman,
and look it
up, it is
called
ActionAlertsPlus.com…
I am here as
your coach…
someone who
knows what
you need to
learn in
order to be
a better
investor…
and all this
week I have
been talking
about
companies
that are
signaling
the fact
that they
are healthy,
and have
solid
dependable
growth…
either by
raising
their
dividends or
by having
the ability
and the
inclination
to do so in
the future.
Remember, we
are so
focused on
dividends
because they
account for
40% of the
average
historical
return from
stocks…
finding good
dividend
stocks that
increase
their
payouts to
keep their
share price
rising… that
is a great
way to make
money… so
before I
tell you how
I would
analyze
Clorox, and
why I think
it is a
buy…. I want
to go over
the other 4
dividend
raisers that
I have
talked about
this week…
because on
this show we
believe in
accountability
and we will
always do
whatever it
takes to
shine a
light in
good times
and bad
times… shine
a light on
our mistakes
so you can
take care of
our gains
and learn
from the
mistakes
that I make
on Mad
Money.
Now, on
Monday I
recommended
Air Products & Chemicals Inc.
(APD)
at $55.90...
it is up
5.1% since
then… I will
say it is
great, and I
would
continue to
buy it, but
I do want it
to come in
just a
little bit,
okay…
Tuesday was
Procter & Gamble (PG*)
at $47, up
3.2%…
Wednesday
was
Chevron Corp. (CVX*),
up to
$69.70, down
about 1%
since then,
thanks to
today’s
pullback…
yesterday
was
Johnson & Johnson (JNJ*),
and it was
flat today…
I like all
of the
companies…
as much as I
like them
when I
pointed out
those names…
although a
5.1% rally
in a week
makes me
like Air
Products a
stock, less
than I did
on Monday… I
like to buy
low, and it
isn’t as low
anymore so I
don’t like
it as much…
that is
another one
of my rules
for
investing…
so, so far
so good with
the dividend
boosters.
Alright, how
about
Clorox Co. (CLX)…
okay, we
start with
the
dividends
right now we
start it
yields 3.6%…
it is payout
is Marathon
Man like, no
clover oil
required…
the company
earnings per
share for
the fiscal
year ends in
June… I
think that
it is going
to come in a
little more
than twice
its dividend
payout…
magic
number, we
are safe…
what draws
us to Clorox
other than
the counter
trend nature
of buying
kitchen and
bathroom
cleaner… not
to mention
Kingsford…
with a
little
Hidden
Valley Ranch
for some
flavor… and
of course
kitty
litter… this
one clumps
tight…
wouldn’t you
like to
clump tight…
while the
economically
sensitive
stocks are
in style…we
are clumping
tight… with
Clorox…
because that
company can
raise its
dividend…
the street
is expecting
a 8.6%
increase to
$2.01 a
share in
May… when
Clorox
should make
any dividend
announcements…
that is a
raise that
would take
the yield up
to 3.8% if
the stock
stayed right
here… it
would also
signal that
the company
is doing
better for
itself…
which I am
telling you
it is.
Now normally
you would
want to
unload on
stocks like
Clorox if we
are really
headed into
a vigorous
recovery… I
don’t know,
this
recession is
somewhat
different
than most…
different as
in the worst
since the
Great
Depression…
brand name
companies
were
suffering as
consumers
traded down
to buy
cheaper
private
label
version of
their
products…
but now the
impact of
private
label store
brands seem
to be easing
in Clorox
markets…
especially
in trash
bags,
charcoal… I
mean what
other
charcoal is
there
besides
Kingsford…
bleach…
these are
the big
categories…
private
label
products are
still taking
share but
they have
taken less
share in the
last 12
weeks than
they did in
the 12 weeks
at the end
of 2008...
that is good
for Clorox.
The company
seems to be
doing better
than
expected… it
has
maintained
its full
year
earnings
outlook
while saying
that
restructuring
expenses
would be
higher than
planned…
that implies
the business
must be
doing
better,… it
has got to
be… it has
to offset
costs, I
mean
commodities
are going
down right…
Clorox
benefits
from cheaper
commodity
costs and
the fact
that it
raised
prices to
offset these
costs while
they were
higher… if
it doesn’t
plan to roll
back it
price
increases
except for
Glad bags,
that is
great…
higher
margins…
higher
margins mean
more money
per bottle
of bleach or
bag of
Kingsford…
and we love
that on Mad
Money… do
not forget a
lot of their
cost is
natural gas,
which hit
$3.70 today,
it is an
incredible
low.
Next you
need to look
at
valuation…
right now it
is 13 times
earnings…
that is
unbelievable…
that is a
big discount
from it 5
years
average
which is 19
times
earnings… if
Clorox
eventually
works its
way back
there it
will be $77
stock… a 49%
gain.
Here is the
bottom line…
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Jim's
comments AFTER the
interview:
Even with today’s
pullback don’t chase
the stocks that have
rallied hardest this
week... instead find
a good counter trend
stock like
Clorox Co. (CLX)…
that is likely to
indicate that it is
in good shape by
raising its
dividend.
Don’t chase stocks,
instead look for
beaten up ones like
CLX with its strong
dividend...
What do we do these
big days… we buy
some dividend stocks
including
Air Products & Chemicals Inc.
(APD),
Procter & Gamble (PG*),
Chevron Corp. (CVX*),
Clorox, and
Johnson & Johnson (JNJ*)...
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[verbatim
recap]
[end of segment]
Read Jim's next Segment
here
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Read Jim's next Segment
here
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