Opening Segment #3:
'Daily Dose of Dividends'

'Clean Slate'
Friday, March 27, 2009
 

Jim's
rating on
this stock

STOCK
SYMBOL

Closing
price that
day

Full Company Name

CLX

51.70

Clorox Co. (CLX)



Jim:     What do we do now… after the huge rally this week in the cyclical stocks… the ones that do well when the economy recovers… they got a bit of a pullback… so do I think you should buy them if you missed this move… no, that is not what I would do… what is the smart play then… alright, when I used to run a half a billion dollars at my hedge fund, after a move like this I would want to find a good counter trend name… something that other people have been selling or dumping I think irrationally… in order to pile into the hotter stocks… I hated to chase stocks… I liked stocks of excellent companies that were being thrown away out of one these mindless rotations out of the non-fashionable and into the fashionable… I attribute my record, 24% annually after all fees over a 14 year period, unmatched during the years that I worked as a hedge fund manager… to precisely to going against the grain mentality… I have always pondered the records of the critics… but then again, they either don’t have one or they got pantsed by me...

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Market Results today:

Dow:  - 148

Nasdaq:  - 41

S&P 500:  - 16

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Friday, March 27, 2009
(Cont'd from above)...


Jim (cont'd):      This is a really good time to try to find a really good consumer products company… something that is not really sexy but pays a solid dividend… and is able to raise that dividend… and right now I am liking Clorox Co. (CLX)… you find a company with good long term prospects that are improving by the quarter because of good new management… and you just start putting it away… while all of the big boys are much more interested in the stocks that have spent all week rallying and rallying hard… they are late… we are early.

Now, I have been talking about the dividend boosters all week as part of a series… explaining that yes, you are capable of picking your own stocks and beating the markets… unlike the myriad advocates of index funds, those are people who have probably never owned stocks in their life, but are convinced that it is impossible for an ordinary person to make money in them… unlike them, I know that that is garbage… because I would beat the market all the time at my old hedge fund… with all kind of constraints that an individual investor like you doesn’t have… and since retiring, I have run a charitable trust that makes it very difficult to trade because of all the restrictions that I have had… but I have still managed to beat the market handily with that, you can follow along with my charitable trust if you want to… go to
TheStreet.com, where I am chairman, and look it up, it is called ActionAlertsPlus.com… I am here as your coach… someone who knows what you need to learn in order to be a better investor… and all this week I have been talking about companies that are signaling the fact that they are healthy, and have solid dependable growth… either by raising their dividends or by having the ability and the inclination to do so in the future.

Remember, we are so focused on dividends because they account for 40% of the average historical return from stocks… finding good dividend stocks that increase their payouts to keep their share price rising… that is a great way to make money… so before I tell you how I would analyze Clorox, and why I think it is a buy…. I want to go over the other 4 dividend raisers that I have talked about this week… because on this show we believe in accountability and we will always do whatever it takes to shine a light in good times and bad times… shine a light on our mistakes so you can take care of our gains and learn from the mistakes that I make on Mad Money.

Now, on Monday I recommended
Air Products & Chemicals Inc. (APD) at $55.90... it is up 5.1% since then… I will say it is great, and I would continue to buy it, but I do want it to come in just a little bit, okay… Tuesday was Procter & Gamble (PG*) at $47, up 3.2%… Wednesday was Chevron Corp. (CVX*), up to $69.70, down about 1% since then, thanks to today’s pullback… yesterday was Johnson & Johnson (JNJ*), and it was flat today… I like all of the companies… as much as I like them when I pointed out those names… although a 5.1% rally in a week makes me like Air Products a stock, less than I did on Monday… I like to buy low, and it isn’t as low anymore so I don’t like it as much… that is another one of my rules for investing… so, so far so good with the dividend boosters.

Alright, how about
Clorox Co. (CLX)… okay, we start with the dividends right now we start it yields 3.6%… it is payout is Marathon Man like, no clover oil required… the company earnings per share for the fiscal year ends in June… I think that it is going to come in a little more than twice its dividend payout… magic number, we are safe… what draws us to Clorox other than the counter trend nature of buying kitchen and bathroom cleaner… not to mention Kingsford… with a little Hidden Valley Ranch for some flavor… and of course kitty litter… this one clumps tight… wouldn’t you like to clump tight… while the economically sensitive stocks are in style…we are clumping tight… with Clorox… because that company can raise its dividend… the street is expecting a 8.6% increase to $2.01 a share in May… when Clorox should make any dividend announcements… that is a raise that would take the yield up to 3.8% if the stock stayed right here… it would also signal that the company is doing better for itself… which I am telling you it is.

Now normally you would want to unload on stocks like Clorox if we are really headed into a vigorous recovery… I don’t know, this recession is somewhat different than most… different as in the worst since the Great Depression… brand name companies were suffering as consumers traded down to buy cheaper private label version of their products… but now the impact of private label store brands seem to be easing in Clorox markets… especially in trash bags, charcoal… I mean what other charcoal is there besides Kingsford… bleach… these are the big categories… private label products are still taking share but they have taken less share in the last 12 weeks than they did in the 12 weeks at the end of 2008... that is good for Clorox.

The company seems to be doing better than expected… it has maintained its full year earnings outlook while saying that restructuring expenses would be higher than planned… that implies the business must be doing better,… it has got to be… it has to offset costs, I mean commodities are going down right… Clorox benefits from cheaper commodity costs and the fact that it raised prices to offset these costs while they were higher… if it doesn’t plan to roll back it price increases except for Glad bags, that is great… higher margins… higher margins mean more money per bottle of bleach or bag of Kingsford… and we love that on Mad Money… do not forget a lot of their cost is natural gas, which hit $3.70 today, it is an incredible low.

Next you need to look at valuation… right now it is 13 times earnings… that is unbelievable… that is a big discount from it 5 years average which is 19 times earnings… if Clorox eventually works its way back there it will be $77 stock… a 49% gain.

Here is the bottom line…

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Jim's comments AFTER the interview:      Even with today’s pullback don’t chase the stocks that have rallied hardest this week... instead find a good counter trend stock like Clorox Co. (CLX)… that is likely to indicate that it is in good shape by raising its dividend.

Don’t chase stocks, instead look for beaten up ones like CLX with its strong dividend...   What do we do these big days… we buy some dividend stocks including
Air Products & Chemicals Inc. (APD), Procter & Gamble (PG*), Chevron Corp. (CVX*), Clorox, and Johnson & Johnson (JNJ*)...

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[verbatim recap]

[end of segment]


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