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Tuesday,
March 31, 2009
(Cont'd from
above)...
Jim (cont'd):
I saw today on
Bloomberg that
Apollo Investments
and Colony, two
hedge funds, are
readying to buy
billions of dollars
of this stuff… I
can’t believe that
seasoned pros that
have killed in the
distressed bond
market aren’t
listening to the
Professor and Mary
Ann, I mean the
columnist… like I
learned to listen to
the millionaire and
not his wife… where
is the movie star,
oh there I go again
trying to make the
show interesting…
don’t worry, I
understand the
dangers of being
compelling… I mean
who knows if I keep
you entertained you
might not fall
asleep… and then you
would be exposed to
my opinions… can’t
have that happen…
somebody might learn
something...
When I was at
Harvard Law School I
took some classes at
the Business School,
had to work that in
right, about option
pricing… they all
have the same thing…
the calls, the puts,
they were all priced
perfectly the
professor said, so
you really could not
make any money off
of them… that they
were simple mental
exercises… oh man,
oh doctor were those
professors smart…
even wrote whole
books about them…
when I think about
them, I think about
how smart they were…
smart as whips…
there is only one
problem, a phone
booth located right
before I crossed the
Charles River on the
way from the Harvard
yard game to the
Business school…
everyday I would
make a little money
trading the options…
you know an Amoco, a
Motorola, a Texas
Instruments, Time
Inc…. put myself
thru school trading
the calls… now I
feel guilty… I
obviously wasn’t
entitled to those
gains… ill gotten…
because the
academics told me
that it could not
happen… my bad… I
did not realize that
I was breaking some
fundamental law of
economic physics…
they can’t ticket
you for that can
they… same as you
should have felt if
you had gains today…
shame on you… the
depressionists don’t
want you to make
money.
It isn’t just the
toxic assets that
could be bought for
gains today… the
banks who that stand
to gain the most
from accounting
forbearance…. for
questionable assets,
that might just pay
off one day… Bank of
New York up 9%…
State Street up 10%…
remember I told you
to buy them
yesterday… those
gains are so unfair
that they should
never be happening…
not only that, they
aren’t done going
up… or how about
tech today… did you
see Qualcomm, my
favorite tech stock
for
ActionAlertsPlus.com, my
charitable trust,
no offense to Mark
Hurd and Hewlett
Packard… Qualcomm
broke out, up
$1.00... the
technicians said
that this market of
semiconductors for
cell phones is
supposed to
disappoint… the
stocks are supposed
to be going lower…
no… aren’t all
semiconductors doing
badly… I saw a big
estimate bump today
for Taiwan Semi,
must be some sort of
slight of hand…
couldn’t be a real
gain… could it… or
how about Cisco,
Cisco ramping 2.8%
today, a beautiful
gain… what is going
on here… must be
because of that
imbedded huge
commercial in “24”
for its networking
technology captained
by Janine Gerafelow…
hey would it kill
them to show a
little cloning now
and then… I only
caught it last night
because I was
turning channels
looking for
offerings from NBC,
MSNBC, CNBC, Bravo,
and USA network
because I am above
all a team player…
but it did make me
want to pick up some
of the big network
though… meanwhile,
Apple up just around
1%… Google up 1.6%..
IBM up 2.5%… three
stooges of gains…
where is Shemp… oh I
forgot I am Shemp,
or maybe Larry… they
just won’t quit.
What is the deal
with the oils… the
futures best gain in
about 8 months for
oil… the futures go
up a $1 and then
everyone comes
flying in and buying
oil stocks… fools
fowl… Occidental,
Chevron, Exxon, all
holding in most of
the day… Devon is
flat… it is an
outrage… I am taking
these points back…
the bear referees
are blowing these
gains dead… I call
them shot clock
violations… it was
like that everywhere
today.
McDonald’s up 1.2%…
UPS and Fed Ex up 3%
and 1% respectively…
I think that it is
outrageous… it is
not supposed to
happen… darn it all…
these gains are not
supposed to happen…
not for the
Depressionists.
The bottom line…
▼ ▼
▼ ▼
▼
 The Bottom Line!:
I wish that I could
have brought it down
for you for better
prices… I could only
take it down to
+86... I almost
wished that the
professors were
right… but then
again, we did get
clocked for 400
points straight down
the last two days…
maybe that is all
the gift that you
are going to get as
this beautiful month
of March concludes…
this one didn’t go
out like a lamb… or
Lamb Chop to quote
famed stock Chevonne,
Sheri Lewis… it went
out like a bull… a
bull that I don’t
think will be easily
stopped by April
showers… or May
flowers for that
matter.
Don’t expect April
showers to hold the
bull back, I think
the market is headed
higher...
Alright, Dow up
87... at one point
it was up much more…
but in the end…
March may not have
come in like a lion…
but it sure went out
like a bull.
[verbatim recap]
▼ ▼
▼ ▼
▼
Jim went on after
this segment to take
questions from
callers, and
responded with his
comments...
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Q:
About Ford, do they
plan for the future,
they didn’t take any
government money.
You know Ford has
added incentives and
everything. It seems
like Ford should be
gaining market
share.
Jim:
Alright, listen and
listen good… Ford
Motors is a
speculative
situation, it is
certainly better
than GM… I have to
tell you Alma Lately
has done an
unbelievable job, he
didn’t take the TARP
money, he actually
cut costs, he
actually had a
better inventory, he
has got the better
cars… however, that
does not make Ford
the better stock…
neither stock is
good to own… the
Ford bonds have some
attraction… but I do
not recommend bonds
on the show… I
cannot have you
buying the Ford
common stock which
is going to get
diluted every time
it rallies, I
believe… and GM
common stock, I will
say it for the
millionth time… it
is maybe worth a
dime… now it could
go up tomorrow
because someone
could say something
good about it… but
ultimately either
labor or the bond
holders are going to
get that common
stock.. I think
labor… and you are
going to be diluted
beyond recognition…
and you will not
make money.
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Q:
We have accrued
trillion dollars of
debt, we have
significant budge
deficits, and now we
have got special
relief programs
paying out
additional trillions
of dollars. How are
we going to get out
of this? And how
important is this to
investors?
Jim:
First of all, we are
not going to get out
of it for a very
long time, the
reason why we are
doing this is
because we are
trying to avoid a
Depression… we are
not trying to stop
inflation… one of
the things that they
did wrong from 1929
to 32, was to
believe that the
enemy was inflation,
even though
everything was going
down… if you were a
bank do you want to
make a loan to
anyone knowing that
the collateral is
going to go down
10%, 15%, 20% as
houses do… remember,
we are fighting
deflation… the
reason why it is so
strange to us, the
reason why you can
throw so much money
at it, and people
are really worried…
is because we
haven’t had a
deflationary spiral
since the 1930’s so
most people are not
old enough to
remember… it is much
tougher to stop than
an inflationary
spiral where you
just raise interest
rates… the
government, Ben
Bernanke, doing it
right… now remember,
I am a huge critic
of many of the
things that you have
seen be done in
2005, 2008... I am
not a critic of Ben
Bernanke, he is
doing it right.
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Q:
What are your
thoughts about the
G20 Summit and any
portfolio moves we
should make before
Thursday?
Jim:
No, we are not going
to be able to trade
off of the G20... I
love these big
gatherings… one day
I am going to get to
one of them..
.because the food is
probably fabulous…
you probably have
food from all
different nations…
but substantially
no… it is kind of
like a gigantic food
cocktail party… make
mine the new Camun
Islands Rum… now
here is the problem,
I think that when
you try to key off
of a G20 what will
happen is that
someone will bash
the cap-n-trade,
someone will bash
carbon trading,
someone will tell
Obama that he is
printing too much
money… and we will
sit here and think…
well that was
terrific, but what
do we do in order to
profit from it… and
the answer is
nothing.
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[verbatim recap]
[end of segment]
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