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Opening Segment #3: |
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'The
Sell Block'
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Thursday,
April 2, 2009 |
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Jim's
rating on
this stock |
STOCK
SYMBOL |
Closing
price that
day |
Full Company Name |
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USO |
30.98 |
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United States Oil ETF (USO)
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LVS |
4.40 |
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WYNN |
26.85 |
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MGM |
3.14 |
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IGT |
10.02 |
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International Game Technology
(IGT)
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Jim:
There is nothing
worse than a
financial product
that doesn’t do what
it is supposed to
do… now I am a
pretty calm guy as
you know… an
ambassador of good
will, like Bishop
TuTu… or the Dahli
Llama, although the
Chinese regard the
little guy as a real
rabble rouser… but
when you buy an ETF
(i.e., "exchange
traded fund)
thinking that you
are investing in one
thing… when in fact
you are exposing
your money to
something entirely
else… I break with
my noted statesman
side… and I call out
the bad guys,
because I am so
enraged… I consider
it my duty to try to
protect you from
some of these
aggressious ETF’s….
in the past, we have
talked about the
UltraShort ProShares
Funds, which are
monsters… especially
the
UltraShort
Financials ProShares
(SKF),
the financial ETF of
mass destruction…
that you have lost
skads of money in
when you would have
expected them to go
higher… because the
underlying enticies
that they are
shorting with lots
of leverage went
lower… if I were in
the new SEC, as
opposed to the old
SEC run by a radical
lazy fair Bozo, who
was a useful idiot
for the short
sellers, to quote my
great-great-uncle
and spitting image,
Vlad Lenin… I would
ban the SKF
tomorrow… or at
least give it some
sort of financial
cancer warning that
would make you
realize that you are
killing your
portfolio...
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See comments continued below...
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Thursday,
April 2, 2009
(Cont'd from
above)...
Jim
(cont'd):
Now, we have got a
new batch of ETF’s
that don’t do what
they think they do…
I have to tell you,
people are using
these things, and
they have no
correlation to what
you think they do…
these are the ETF’s
that track oil… you
would think that
they would pretty
much mimic the
returns that you
would get by buying
crude… just an
easier way to buy
the commodity… but
in fact that is not
how it works at all…
these funds have
consistently
underperformed
compared to oil…
which they are
supposed to track..
I want you to banish
their use pronto
rooney-mcfaddie… as
of now the crude oil
ETF’s, and in
particularly the
most widely traded
of the bunch. the
United States oil
fund which gives a
name to the
United States Oil ETF (USO)…
are being put right
now on the sell
block… and I want
you to put them in
solitary… and lock
the door… and throw
away the key… and
maybe give them a
little cruel and
unusual punishment
while we are at it…
because I never much
liked the 8th
Amendment, or the
rest of the Bill of
Rights either… save
for the 2nd
Amendment, which
makes me a bonifide
American...
What is wrong with
the USO… in a great
article written by
Kevin Baker at
TheStreet.com,
where I am chairman…
Baker pointed out
how this fund and
the other ETF”s
significantly
underperformed the
price of crude…
between April 10th,
2006 when the USO
was created and July
11th when oil
peaked… the USO
underperformed spot
prices by 73% to
111%… since the
USO’s inception
crude is down 23%..
you would expect the
ETF to be down about
the same amount
right… but it is
actually down 54%…
this year oil is 18%
and the USO is down
6%… this has nothing
to do with oil at
all… it is a
travesty of a
fallacy of a joke,
not even wrapped up
in an enigma or a
riddle… look at
this, these have
nothing to do… crude
oil way up… let’s
recap, when oil was
going higher in a
big multi year run,
you did much worse
owning the USO to
capture the upside
than if you just
owned the crude… I
mean it would be
better if you like
went to a gas
station and just
filled up your
garage with the
stuff.
When it was going
lower you lost more
money in the USO
than if you owned
crude… and now that
oil prices are
recovering again the
USO is losing you
money… doesn’t sound
like an ETF that you
should own does it…
the funds company
that it creates to
sell these ETF’s
make tons of money
from you… but they
are not making money
for you… this is
such a travesty… how
did this happen… so
how the heck is it
that an ETF that is
supposed to track
oil has managed to
so dramatically
underperform the
commodity… it is all
about how the ETF
works… the USO is
designed to track
the price of West
Texas intermediate
light sweet crude…
but it is not a
direct play on oil
at all… it doesn’t
own the oil, it
doesn’t buy oil… it
tracks light sweet
crude by buying
listed crude oil
futures contracts…
and similar
derivatives… the
problem is that
these future
contracts have a
limited shelf live…
not like oil, they
expire… making it
impossible for the
USO to remain
indefinitely
invested… every
month it has to roll
its contract
forward… so once a
month over a period
of 4 days the USO
sells its expiring
contracts and buys
new ones for the
following month… and
that is where all of
the underperformance
comes from
In periods where the
oil futures market
is called contango,
that is
Wall Street jibberish
meaning that the
price of a commodity
for futures delivery
is more expensive
than the spot
market, or current
market… when futures
costs more than oil
that is selling
right now… then the
USO is buying
futures contracts
that are more
expensive than the
ones that it is
selling… month after
month… that cuts
heavily into its
performance… that is
the problem… and it
is why the USO
belongs in the sell
block right now… the
people running this
ETF aren’t doing
anything wrong… they
warn investors about
this in their
prospectus… but I
bet most of the
people buying this
aren’t reading the
prospectus… in this
case, I am doing the
homework for you…
the government will
not help you protect
your money… Mad
Money will… the
government won’t.
There is a silver
lining here though…
the oil futures
market is now in
contango … but when
future oil prices
become lower than
the spot price… we
say when a futures
market is in
backwardation… the
opposite of
contango… then the
USO should
outperform oil…
because it will be
buying cheaper
contracts and
selling pricier
ones.. when that
happens, I will
gladly do a prisoner
furlough… but, for
now, the USO stays
in the sell block…
One convict goes in,
four more come out…
I put the casinos,
Las Vegas Sands (LVS),
Wynn Resorts (WYNN),
and
MGM Mirage (MGM)
back on January
17th, 2008... since
then Las Vegas Sands
is down 94%, Wynn
down 72%, and MGM
down 95%… I also
thought that you
should sell
International Game Technology
(IGT),
which makes gaming
equipment… a month
later I did that
February 14th, 2008,
it is now down 78%…
now these stocks are
starting to get a
little kick… MGM
Mirage may get
funding for its city
center project in
Vegas… Las Vegas
Sands going to
restart construction
McCale…which it had
to shut down because
it didn’t have the
money.
Now that the credit
markets are starting
to unfreeze and a
depression has been
taken off of the
table… I am much
less worried about
the casinos being
crushed under the
weight of their
enormous debts… I
don’t want you to
buy them… I just
want to declare
victory.
Here is the bottom
line…
▼ ▼
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The
Bottom Line!:
The oil ETF’s are
off limits, because
they don’t do what
you probably think
they do… and they
seriously under
perform crude… the
commodity that they
are supposed to
track no matter what
direction… you can,
however, speculate
in former sell block
residents
Las Vegas Sands (LVS),
Wynn Resorts (WYNN),
MGM Mirage (MGM),
and
International Game Technology
(IGT)…
we call the huge
declines, now that
they have happened…
the credit markets
are thawing… and the
casinos are safer
than they were...
United States Oil ETF (USO)’s
in the Sell Block
until contango ends
& I’m giving the
casinos a get out of
jail free card.
Alright, the USO
stays in the Sell
Block.. but it looks
like the tables have
turned for the
casinos… Las Vegas
Sands, Wynn, MGM
Mirage, and IGT… the
USO is a travesty,
how the government
let this stuff
happen is
disgraceful… how do
they let this stuff
happen… they could
care less about you.
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[verbatim
recap]
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Jim went on after
this segment to take
questions from
callers, and
responded with his
comments...
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Q:
I have been in the
house of pain with
the oil and gas
ETF’s and the action
in the refining
stocks. Sometimes
there seems to be a
discrepancy between
the price movement
of oil and gas, and
the price quoted in
the ETF? Also, what
is up with the
refining stocks,
they don’t seem to
move up and down
with the market?
Jim:
Alright, a two part
question… the first
part is that the
ETF’s, they just
don’t work.. they
are based on the
futures not the oil,
but the people that
issue them don’t
really care… they
are taking your
money, and they tell
you to read the fine
print, and nobody
does, so you just
get gaffed… the
price of crude has
moved up and the
price of gasoline
has stayed pretty
much constant… give
or take a couple of
pennies… that has
really, really hurts
the refining
margins… I have
never recommended
the refining stocks…
and I think that you
should own
integrateds… if you
want to have an oil
that is integrated
and also refining,
may I suggest you
buy Marathon(MRO).
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Q:
My wife and I are
retired, and the
market downturn has
taken half the value
of our portfolio. We
are starting to move
into royalty trusts
for an income
stream, but we are
concerned about the
structure of these
investment. We don’t
want to ride them to
the bottom of the
well. What are the
warning signs that
will tell us when to
sell these holdings?
Jim:
Well, if you see a
15% drop in crude
what they will do is
they will most
likely trim the
dividend the next
time… now, you know
that I have been
recommending the
Prudo Bay(PBT)…
let’s see, $10 it
should be higher,
the Permium Basin…
you know these are
okay, they should
have moved more
frankly… and they
will move… but after
they move up, let’s
rethink them,
because some of
them, I think,
should have moved up
already… but the
distributions are
going to go higher
not lower, I
believe… and I think
we will be fine.
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[verbatim
recap]
[end of segment]
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