Opening Segment #3:
'The Sell Block'
Thursday, April 2, 2009
 

Jim's
rating on
this stock

STOCK
SYMBOL

Closing
price that
day

Full Company Name

USO

30.98

United States Oil ETF (USO)



LVS

4.40

Las Vegas Sands (LVS)



WYNN

26.85

Wynn Resorts (WYNN)



MGM

3.14

MGM Mirage (MGM)



IGT

10.02

International Game Technology (IGT)



Jim:     There is nothing worse than a financial product that doesn’t do what it is supposed to do… now I am a pretty calm guy as you know… an ambassador of good will, like Bishop TuTu… or the Dahli Llama, although the Chinese regard the little guy as a real rabble rouser… but when you buy an ETF (i.e., "exchange traded fund) thinking that you are investing in one thing… when in fact you are exposing your money to something entirely else… I break with my noted statesman side… and I call out the bad guys, because I am so enraged… I consider it my duty to try to protect you from some of these aggressious ETF’s…. in the past, we have talked about the UltraShort ProShares Funds, which are monsters… especially the UltraShort Financials ProShares (SKF), the financial ETF of mass destruction… that you have lost skads of money in when you would have expected them to go higher… because the underlying enticies that they are shorting with lots of leverage went lower… if I were in the new SEC, as opposed to the old SEC run by a radical lazy fair Bozo, who was a useful idiot for the short sellers, to quote my great-great-uncle and spitting image, Vlad Lenin… I would ban the SKF tomorrow… or at least give it some sort of financial cancer warning that would make you realize that you are killing your portfolio...

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Market Results today:

Dow:  + 216

Nasdaq:  + 51

S&P 500:  + 23

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Thursday, April 2, 2009
(Cont'd from above)...


Jim (cont'd):

Now, we have got a new batch of ETF’s that don’t do what they think they do… I have to tell you, people are using these things, and they have no correlation to what you think they do… these are the ETF’s that track oil… you would think that they would pretty much mimic the returns that you would get by buying crude… just an easier way to buy the commodity… but in fact that is not how it works at all… these funds have consistently underperformed compared to oil… which they are supposed to track.. I want you to banish their use pronto rooney-mcfaddie… as of now the crude oil ETF’s, and in particularly the most widely traded of the bunch. the United States oil fund which gives a name to the United States Oil ETF (USO)… are being put right now on the sell block… and I want you to put them in solitary… and lock the door… and throw away the key… and maybe give them a little cruel and unusual punishment while we are at it… because I never much liked the 8th Amendment, or the rest of the Bill of Rights either… save for the 2nd Amendment, which makes me a bonifide American...

What is wrong with the USO… in a great article written by Kevin Baker at
TheStreet.com, where I am chairman… Baker pointed out how this fund and the other ETF”s significantly underperformed the price of crude… between April 10th, 2006 when the USO was created and July 11th when oil peaked… the USO underperformed spot prices by 73% to 111%… since the USO’s inception crude is down 23%.. you would expect the ETF to be down about the same amount right… but it is actually down 54%… this year oil is 18% and the USO is down 6%… this has nothing to do with oil at all… it is a travesty of a fallacy of a joke, not even wrapped up in an enigma or a riddle… look at this, these have nothing to do… crude oil way up… let’s recap, when oil was going higher in a big multi year run, you did much worse owning the USO to capture the upside than if you just owned the crude… I mean it would be better if you like went to a gas station and just filled up your garage with the stuff.

When it was going lower you lost more money in the USO than if you owned crude… and now that oil prices are recovering again the USO is losing you money… doesn’t sound like an ETF that you should own does it… the funds company that it creates to sell these ETF’s make tons of money from you… but they are not making money for you… this is such a travesty… how did this happen… so how the heck is it that an ETF that is supposed to track oil has managed to so dramatically underperform the commodity… it is all about how the ETF works… the USO is designed to track the price of West Texas intermediate light sweet crude… but it is not a direct play on oil at all… it doesn’t own the oil, it doesn’t buy oil… it tracks light sweet crude by buying listed crude oil futures contracts… and similar derivatives… the problem is that these future contracts have a limited shelf live… not like oil, they expire… making it impossible for the USO to remain indefinitely invested… every month it has to roll its contract forward… so once a month over a period of 4 days the USO sells its expiring contracts and buys new ones for the following month… and that is where all of the underperformance comes from

In periods where the oil futures market is called contango, that is
Wall Street jibberish meaning that the price of a commodity for futures delivery is more expensive than the spot market, or current market… when futures costs more than oil that is selling right now… then the USO is buying futures contracts that are more expensive than the ones that it is selling… month after month… that cuts heavily into its performance… that is the problem… and it is why the USO belongs in the sell block right now… the people running this ETF aren’t doing anything wrong… they warn investors about this in their prospectus… but I bet most of the people buying this aren’t reading the prospectus… in this case, I am doing the homework for you… the government will not help you protect your money… Mad Money will… the government won’t.

There is a silver lining here though… the oil futures market is now in contango … but when future oil prices become lower than the spot price… we say when a futures market is in backwardation… the opposite of contango… then the USO should outperform oil… because it will be buying cheaper contracts and selling pricier ones.. when that happens, I will gladly do a prisoner furlough… but, for now, the USO stays in the sell block…

One convict goes in, four more come out…

I put the casinos,
Las Vegas Sands (LVS), Wynn Resorts (WYNN), and MGM Mirage (MGM) back on January 17th, 2008... since then Las Vegas Sands is down 94%, Wynn down 72%, and MGM down 95%… I also thought that you should sell International Game Technology (IGT), which makes gaming equipment… a month later I did that February 14th, 2008, it is now down 78%… now these stocks are starting to get a little kick… MGM Mirage may get funding for its city center project in Vegas… Las Vegas Sands going to restart construction McCale…which it had to shut down because it didn’t have the money.

Now that the credit markets are starting to unfreeze and a depression has been taken off of the table… I am much less worried about the casinos being crushed under the weight of their enormous debts… I don’t want you to buy them… I just want to declare victory.

Here is the bottom line…

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The Bottom Line!:      The oil ETF’s are off limits, because they don’t do what you probably think they do… and they seriously under perform crude… the commodity that they are supposed to track no matter what direction… you can, however, speculate in former sell block residents Las Vegas Sands (LVS), Wynn Resorts (WYNN), MGM Mirage (MGM), and International Game Technology (IGT)… we call the huge declines, now that they have happened… the credit markets are thawing… and the casinos are safer than they were... United States Oil ETF (USO)’s in the Sell Block until contango ends & I’m giving the casinos a get out of jail free card. Alright, the USO stays in the Sell Block.. but it looks like the tables have turned for the casinos… Las Vegas Sands, Wynn, MGM Mirage, and IGT… the USO is a travesty, how the government let this stuff happen is disgraceful… how do they let this stuff happen… they could care less about you.

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[verbatim recap]

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Jim went on after this segment to take questions from callers, and responded with his comments...

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Q:    I have been in the house of pain with the oil and gas ETF’s and the action in the refining stocks. Sometimes there seems to be a discrepancy between the price movement of oil and gas, and the price quoted in the ETF? Also, what is up with the refining stocks, they don’t seem to move up and down with the market?

Jim:   
Alright, a two part question… the first part is that the ETF’s, they just don’t work.. they are based on the futures not the oil, but the people that issue them don’t really care… they are taking your money, and they tell you to read the fine print, and nobody does, so you just get gaffed… the price of crude has moved up and the price of gasoline has stayed pretty much constant… give or take a couple of pennies… that has really, really hurts the refining margins… I have never recommended the refining stocks… and I think that you should own integrateds… if you want to have an oil that is integrated and also refining, may I suggest you buy Marathon(MRO).

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Q:    My wife and I are retired, and the market downturn has taken half the value of our portfolio. We are starting to move into royalty trusts for an income stream, but we are concerned about the structure of these investment. We don’t want to ride them to the bottom of the well. What are the warning signs that will tell us when to sell these holdings?

Jim:   
Well, if you see a 15% drop in crude what they will do is they will most likely trim the dividend the next time… now, you know that I have been recommending the Prudo Bay(PBT)… let’s see, $10 it should be higher, the Permium Basin… you know these are okay, they should have moved more frankly… and they will move… but after they move up, let’s rethink them, because some of them, I think, should have moved up already… but the distributions are going to go higher not lower, I believe… and I think we will be fine.

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[verbatim recap]

[end of segment]


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