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Opening Segment #3: |
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'Off
The Charts' |
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Tuesday,
April 7, 2009 |
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Jim's
rating on
this stock |
STOCK
SYMBOL |
Closing
price that
day |
Full Company Name |
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RIMM |
59.95 |
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Research
In Motion (RIMM)
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Jim:
For today’s 999th
edition of Mad
Money… unlike others
we treat our bottles
of beer on the wall
with reference…
neither take them
down or pass them
around… unless it
was a very hard day…
I want to talk about
a stock that I have
been recommending
from day one… all
the way up here…
that is the day…
March 14th of
2005... and the
stock is
Research
In Motion (RIMM)…
when it was a split
adjusted $22.10...
giving 171% gain
since the show
started… and even
more if you took
some money off the
table as I urged
before the markets
enormous declines…
although I sure wish
that I had told you
to sell it all… I
liked Research In
Motion too much
then… I like it
plenty now… who says
this is just a
trading show… I
regard that as a
long term
investment...
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See comments continued below...
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Tuesday,
April 7, 2009
(Cont'd from
above)...
Jim
(cont'd):
Anyway, we are going
off the charts to
get the technical
mumbo jumbo, chicken
gumbo, if not Ramen
perspective on RIMM…
even if you think
that technical
analysis, drawing
conclusions about a
stock from its
charts is totally
bogus… if you are a
died in the wool
fundamentalist…
along the lines of
Warren Buffet,
Benjamin Graham, Jim
Cramer, or the new
stock gurus on
Cramer fave “The
View” and not a
fundamentalist in
the vein of Jerry
Falwell.. you still
have to respect the
charts… because in
this market a lot of
the big money guys
follow them… we care
what the big boys
think because they
have the power to
move stocks… and as
part of my job as
your investment
coach it is to teach
you how they think…
so you can get an
edge… right now
technical analysis
is very much in
style on the Wall
Street fashion show…
because the
fundamentals are so
difficult, so
influx… and you have
to keep up with all
of the latest styles
so you know what the
big guys are going
to do.
What can the
technicals tell us
about RIMM… well, we
got a technician
here, we got Rick
Bensignor, he is the
chief market
strategist at
Executive Limited,
and my colleague at
TheStreet.com,
where I am chairman…
who says the chart
for RIMM is very
positive… remember
Bensignor is the
chartists who called
the turn in the
financials… he just
nailed it… including
a double in Bank of
America… so we are
all eyes and ears
when Bensignor tells
us what do to…
during the trading
day yesterday he
sent out a memo to
his clients at
Executive Limited
endorsing RIMM… and
saying that he would
go to $71 and then
to $80... but there
will be a pullback..
today we got the
pullback so I think
we have good scoop
here.
So, why does he
think that about
RIMM… let’s look at
the daily show… I
meant the daily
chart… what you are
seeing here is a
"W"… okay, a
W-shaped bottom…
with what is called
an island reversal
pattern… that is not
just
jibberish
meant to confuse you
and keep you
ignorant… or a
reference to some
serious setbacks
that you might have
had at Treasure,
Pleasure, or Fantasy
Island… the bottom
is like a W, see…
here is something
that you have got to
see… the island of
reversal is when a
stock gaps down…
right there… and on
the way down, like
RIMM did right
there… and then gaps
up… right there… on
the way back up…
about the same
place… which is what
we saw… the space
between the two gaps
looks like a little
island… chartists
tend to see this as
a very bullish
pattern… indicating
that the down trend
is over and that a
new uptrend is
beginning… the
opposite would be
true on the upside…
in other words, when
you get an island
reversal flip… you
know that you are
going to go lower.
Bensignor sees more
evidence of his
bullish thesis on
the weekly chart …
where RIMM broke
thru the downtrend
line from last fall…
so any technician
who was shorting the
stock based on the
trend would have to
rethink their thesis
and say that it was
invalid and
incorrect… now, here
is another one… I
really love this… it
is also broken out
over a 200 week
moving average… very
long term measure of
how closely a stock
is hugging its
trajectory… over the
previous 200 weeks…
which supports the
idea that RIMM is
going higher on a
new up trend… see
here you can see the
broken down trend
line right there…the
technical picture is
very bullish…
Bensignor has said
that he thinks RIMM
is a buy on any
pullback… at the
higher mid $60’s…
and today’s 4 point
pullback, well that
is about as close to
a great entry as you
can get.
What about the
fundamentals though…
I think RIMM is
kicking butt… one of
the best tech stocks
out there… with real
growth… not phonied
up estimates, that
were reduced and
then they trumped
them… RIMM came out
with a better than
expected quarter
back on April 2nd…
beating the streets
consensus earnings
estimates by .08
cents… that is a
huge beat… that is a
beat down… and given
our guidance for the
next fiscal year
that was higher than
expected… sales
growing at a 24.5%
clip, better than
expected… company
added 3.9 million
new Blackberry
subscriber accounts…
40,000 more than the
street was looking
for… the company has
been cutting costs
in R&D along with
its supply chain and
manufacturing teams…
and the benefits
should kick in
during the current
quarter… what will
that do… it will
result in higher
margins… meaning for
that every dollar of
sales, this is
important, a greater
percentage will
become profits…
RIMM’s gross margins
have been falling
since August of
2006... so the fact
that it expects to
start growing them
again has eased a
lot of concern on
the street about
margin erosion… in
some ways that is
more important than
24% revenue growth…
although I have to
tell you, I don’t
have more than a
handful of companies
growing faster than
this one… and the
street loves growth…
this is why I think
you have this move,
it is the margins
getting better.
Last quarter RIMM
saw 7.3 million in
activations… highest
of all time… this is
when the economy is
in terrible shape…
imagine what it is
going to be like
when things get
better… terms of
competition… RIMM
has been taking
share in the Smart
Phone market… there
are no new Smart
Phone models coming
out in the near term
from Apple or Nokia…
those are RIMM’s
biggest competitor
in North America…
the new Smart Phone
from Palm, the Pre,
some limited
competition within
Sprint… but as cool
as I think it is… I
am not all that
concerned…
valuation… cheap…
even though RIMM is
expected to grow
earnings by 14.3%
for 2009 calendar
year… growth rate
for its peers is 7%…
RIMM trades at only
16 times earnings…
it is amazing how
cheap you can buy
growth in this
market… it its peers
sells at 21 times
earnings… stocks
with higher growths
should get higher
multiples… RIMM
deserves to go
higher… the only
reason that it
hasn’t gone higher
yet is that people
can’t believe how
much it has come off
of the bottom… but I
think it is going
higher.
The bottom line…
▼ ▼
▼ ▼
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The
Bottom Line!:
Rich Bensignor like
Research
In Motion (RIMM)
on the technicals… I
have liked RIMM on
the fundamentals
since the first
edition of this
show, 999 shows ago…
fundies and techies
are converging… and
I say that the stock
is refueling for a
couple of days… and
then readying for
its next move
higher...
Finally, the fundies
& techies agree! I
think you should
consider RIMM a
buy...
So once again, the
fundies and techies
agree… I have liked
RIMM since 999 days
of Mad Money… and I
still think that it
is a buy.
▼ ▼
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[verbatim
recap]
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Jim went on after
this segment to take
questions from
callers, and
responded with his
comments...
```````````````````````````````````````````````````````````````````````````````````
Q:
I want to know your
thoughts on
Google, Inc. (GOOG)
before earnings next
week. There has been
a perception that
earnings will now
slow down for Google
because of revenue
ads falling, and
things that they are
buying that are nice
haves, but not yet
hip online. But what
about search engine
optimization
revenues?
Jim:
Search engine
optimization
revenues are going
to be huge… Now,
here is the issue
with Google... down
$10 today… a lot of
people freaked out,
the Associated Press
had this story, they
are trying to shut
down a lot of the
free content that
Google has… I think
that is a near-term
worry… now, here is
one thing that I
know better to do…
to get in front of
the Google machine
ahead of the
earnings… I am
literally going to
say that it is just
not analyzable
because of what you
said… the
advertising is
slowing… but the
search engine
optimization is
soaring… it is too
hard a call… I am
not going to get in
front of it… I used
to do that when I
had a great feel for
advertising… the
advertising feel I
have is not great…
it is a push for me
right now… I am not
making any moves.
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Q:
Here is my problem,
I am sitting on this
Apple (AAPL)
stock, and I am
really getting tired
of this daily roller
coaster that I have
been on for the last
12 months. Steve
Jobs health is
failing, the economy
is in a dismal
state, and all of
the tech companies
are laying people
off. What should I
do with this stock?
Jump ship? Or stay
on the ride?
Jim:
Apple and
Research
In Motion (RIMM)
are two stocks that
I have liked since
the beginning of
this show… okay, 999
shows ago I
recommended Apple
and RIMM… I am not
going to get off of
these… I do believe
that if you have a
short term gain on
some of it, off the
90 basis, when
everyone was
freaking out about
jobs… I would
schnitzel..
I would take a
little schnitzel…
but, I like Apple
and I like it for
the long term… and I
don’t think it is
having a special
quarter… but it is
okay… Apple and RIMM
are two stocks that
I am going to be
with because they
have better than
expected growth and
they have great
management and I am
sticking with that.
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Q:
I want to ask you a
question about
VMware (VMW).
Now, Paul Merentz,
the CEO of VMWare,
is announcing the
next generation
virtualization
platform on April
21st. Now VMWare
already has a 100%
market share of the
Fortune 100, while
Microsoft (MSFT)
appears to be in
desperation to catch
up in the
virtualization
phase. So what will
this major product
announcement mean
for VMWare, as far
as putting the nail
in the coffin for
Microsoft and
virtualization
space?
Jim:
Here is the problem,
I like your
thinking… but you
know VMWare ran up
on take over, and
that is always
worrisome to me….
particularly because
EMC (EMC)
owns the lion share
of VMWare… I think
EMC is having a not
great quarter… so I
am in a difficult
position here… if I
tell you to buy
VMWare, you are
coming in on
takeover talk… so
even though all of
those fundamentals
that you just
described are good,
I still think you
could be in for a
let down… I can’t
tell you to buy EMC
as a cheap way to
create VMWare
because I am worried
about EMC’s quarter…
so once again… don’t
buy, don’t buy.
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[verbatim recap]
[end of segment]
Read Jim's next Segment
here
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