Opening Segment #3:
'Off The Charts'
Tuesday, April 7, 2009
 

Jim's
rating on
this stock

STOCK
SYMBOL

Closing
price that
day

Full Company Name

RIMM

59.95

Research In Motion (RIMM)



Jim:     For today’s 999th edition of Mad Money… unlike others we treat our bottles of beer on the wall with reference… neither take them down or pass them around… unless it was a very hard day… I want to talk about a stock that I have been recommending from day one… all the way up here… that is the day… March 14th of 2005... and the stock is Research In Motion (RIMM)… when it was a split adjusted $22.10... giving 171% gain since the show started… and even more if you took some money off the table as I urged before the markets enormous declines… although I sure wish that I had told you to sell it all… I liked Research In Motion too much then… I like it plenty now… who says this is just a trading show… I regard that as a long term investment...

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Market Results today:

Dow:  - 186

Nasdaq:  - 45

S&P 500:  - 19

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Tuesday, April 7, 2009
(Cont'd from above)...


Jim (cont'd):

Anyway, we are going off the charts to get the technical mumbo jumbo, chicken gumbo, if not Ramen perspective on RIMM… even if you think that technical analysis, drawing conclusions about a stock from its charts is totally bogus… if you are a died in the wool fundamentalist… along the lines of Warren Buffet, Benjamin Graham, Jim Cramer, or the new stock gurus on Cramer fave “The View” and not a fundamentalist in the vein of Jerry Falwell.. you still have to respect the charts… because in this market a lot of the big money guys follow them… we care what the big boys think because they have the power to move stocks… and as part of my job as your investment coach it is to teach you how they think… so you can get an edge… right now technical analysis is very much in style on the Wall Street fashion show… because the fundamentals are so difficult, so influx… and you have to keep up with all of the latest styles so you know what the big guys are going to do.

What can the technicals tell us about RIMM… well, we got a technician here, we got Rick Bensignor, he is the chief market strategist at Executive Limited, and my colleague at
TheStreet.com, where I am chairman… who says the chart for RIMM is very positive… remember Bensignor is the chartists who called the turn in the financials… he just nailed it… including a double in Bank of America… so we are all eyes and ears when Bensignor tells us what do to… during the trading day yesterday he sent out a memo to his clients at Executive Limited endorsing RIMM… and saying that he would go to $71 and then to $80... but there will be a pullback.. today we got the pullback so I think we have good scoop here.

So, why does he think that about RIMM… let’s look at the daily show… I meant the daily chart… what you are seeing here is a "W"… okay, a W-shaped bottom… with what is called an island reversal pattern… that is not just
jibberish meant to confuse you and keep you ignorant… or a reference to some serious setbacks that you might have had at Treasure, Pleasure, or Fantasy Island… the bottom is like a W, see… here is something that you have got to see… the island of reversal is when a stock gaps down… right there… and on the way down, like RIMM did right there… and then gaps up… right there… on the way back up… about the same place… which is what we saw… the space between the two gaps looks like a little island… chartists tend to see this as a very bullish pattern… indicating that the down trend is over and that a new uptrend is beginning… the opposite would be true on the upside… in other words, when you get an island reversal flip… you know that you are going to go lower.

Bensignor sees more evidence of his bullish thesis on the weekly chart … where RIMM broke thru the downtrend line from last fall… so any technician who was shorting the stock based on the trend would have to rethink their thesis and say that it was invalid and incorrect… now, here is another one… I really love this… it is also broken out over a 200 week moving average… very long term measure of how closely a stock is hugging its trajectory… over the previous 200 weeks… which supports the idea that RIMM is going higher on a new up trend… see here you can see the broken down trend line right there…the technical picture is very bullish… Bensignor has said that he thinks RIMM is a buy on any pullback… at the higher mid $60’s… and today’s 4 point pullback, well that is about as close to a great entry as you can get.

What about the fundamentals though… I think RIMM is kicking butt… one of the best tech stocks out there… with real growth… not phonied up estimates, that were reduced and then they trumped them… RIMM came out with a better than expected quarter back on April 2nd… beating the streets consensus earnings estimates by .08 cents… that is a huge beat… that is a beat down… and given our guidance for the next fiscal year that was higher than expected… sales growing at a 24.5% clip, better than expected… company added 3.9 million new Blackberry subscriber accounts… 40,000 more than the street was looking for… the company has been cutting costs in R&D along with its supply chain and manufacturing teams… and the benefits should kick in during the current quarter… what will that do… it will result in higher margins… meaning for that every dollar of sales, this is important, a greater percentage will become profits… RIMM’s gross margins have been falling since August of 2006... so the fact that it expects to start growing them again has eased a lot of concern on the street about margin erosion… in some ways that is more important than 24% revenue growth… although I have to tell you, I don’t have more than a handful of companies growing faster than this one… and the street loves growth… this is why I think you have this move, it is the margins getting better.

Last quarter RIMM saw 7.3 million in activations… highest of all time… this is when the economy is in terrible shape… imagine what it is going to be like when things get better… terms of competition… RIMM has been taking share in the Smart Phone market… there are no new Smart Phone models coming out in the near term from Apple or Nokia… those are RIMM’s biggest competitor in North America… the new Smart Phone from Palm, the Pre, some limited competition within Sprint… but as cool as I think it is… I am not all that concerned… valuation… cheap… even though RIMM is expected to grow earnings by 14.3% for 2009 calendar year… growth rate for its peers is 7%… RIMM trades at only 16 times earnings… it is amazing how cheap you can buy growth in this market… it its peers sells at 21 times earnings… stocks with higher growths should get higher multiples… RIMM deserves to go higher… the only reason that it hasn’t gone higher yet is that people can’t believe how much it has come off of the bottom… but I think it is going higher.

The bottom line…

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The Bottom Line!:      Rich Bensignor like Research In Motion (RIMM) on the technicals… I have liked RIMM on the fundamentals since the first edition of this show, 999 shows ago… fundies and techies are converging… and I say that the stock is refueling for a couple of days… and then readying for its next move higher...   Finally, the fundies & techies agree! I think you should consider RIMM a buy...   So once again, the fundies and techies agree… I have liked RIMM since 999 days of Mad Money… and I still think that it is a buy.

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[verbatim recap]

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Jim went on after this segment to take questions from callers, and responded with his comments...

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Q:    I want to know your thoughts on
Google, Inc. (GOOG) before earnings next week. There has been a perception that earnings will now slow down for Google because of revenue ads falling, and things that they are buying that are nice haves, but not yet hip online. But what about search engine optimization revenues?

Jim:   
Search engine optimization revenues are going to be huge… Now, here is the issue with Google... down $10 today… a lot of people freaked out, the Associated Press had this story, they are trying to shut down a lot of the free content that Google has… I think that is a near-term worry… now, here is one thing that I know better to do… to get in front of the Google machine ahead of the earnings… I am literally going to say that it is just not analyzable because of what you said… the advertising is slowing… but the search engine optimization is soaring… it is too hard a call… I am not going to get in front of it… I used to do that when I had a great feel for advertising… the advertising feel I have is not great… it is a push for me right now… I am not making any moves.

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Q:    Here is my problem, I am sitting on this
Apple (AAPL) stock, and I am really getting tired of this daily roller coaster that I have been on for the last 12 months. Steve Jobs health is failing, the economy is in a dismal state, and all of the tech companies are laying people off. What should I do with this stock? Jump ship? Or stay on the ride?

Jim:   
Apple and
Research In Motion (RIMM) are two stocks that I have liked since the beginning of this show… okay, 999 shows ago I recommended Apple and RIMM… I am not going to get off of these… I do believe that if you have a short term gain on some of it, off the 90 basis, when everyone was freaking out about jobs… I would schnitzel.. I would take a little schnitzel… but, I like Apple and I like it for the long term… and I don’t think it is having a special quarter… but it is okay… Apple and RIMM are two stocks that I am going to be with because they have better than expected growth and they have great management and I am sticking with that.

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Q:    I want to ask you a question about
VMware (VMW). Now, Paul Merentz, the CEO of VMWare, is announcing the next generation virtualization platform on April 21st. Now VMWare already has a 100% market share of the Fortune 100, while Microsoft (MSFT) appears to be in desperation to catch up in the virtualization phase. So what will this major product announcement mean for VMWare, as far as putting the nail in the coffin for Microsoft and virtualization space?

Jim:   
Here is the problem, I like your thinking… but you know VMWare ran up on take over, and that is always worrisome to me…. particularly because
EMC (EMC) owns the lion share of VMWare… I think EMC is having a not great quarter… so I am in a difficult position here… if I tell you to buy VMWare, you are coming in on takeover talk… so even though all of those fundamentals that you just described are good, I still think you could be in for a let down… I can’t tell you to buy EMC as a cheap way to create VMWare because I am worried about EMC’s quarter… so once again… don’t buy, don’t buy.

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[verbatim recap]

[end of segment]


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