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Opening Segment #3: |
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'Fatal
Attraction' |
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Monday,
April 13, 2009 |
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Jim's
rating on
this stock |
STOCK
SYMBOL |
Closing
price that
day |
Full Company Name |
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na |
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Charter Communications Inc.
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Cramer’s Rule:
Uninformed
speculation on
low-dollar amount
stocks can wipe you
out...
Jim:
I am trying to
educate you… trying
to educate you now
so that you can stay
in the game for the
long haul… trying to
be your coach… help
you make money the
best way that I know
how… but before you
can make money you
have to know how to
lose it…. which is
why right now I want
to talk to you about
protecting yourself…
from yourself…
something that has
never been more
important… you know
what kind of stocks
that I tend to get
the most emails
about… well, of
course, it is cheap,
low dollar amounts,
speculative stocks…
little $2 to $10
numbers that so many
people think could
be their ticket to
riches… now I am not
against speculating
on single digit
stocks at all… in
fact, I advocate,
and I am probably
the only person that
advocates it, it is
a healthy ingredient
in any balanced
portfolio….
speculation is
interesting… it is a
lot more fun than
regular investing…
and it often is what
keeps you in the
game… and I call it
a game, why… because
every single person
who runs a billion
dollars, every
single person that I
have ever met who
has run any money,
calls it a game… it
is not my name for
it… I could call it
the meal… how about
the meal… I could
call it the love
fest… they call it a
game… it gets you to
keep paying
attention to all of
your stocks… because
it is so fun...
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See comments continued below...
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Monday,
April 13, 2009
(Cont'd from
above)...
Jim
(cont'd):
But I also know that
caution is king…
especially when you
are trying to build
wealth over the long
term… that is why in
Stay Mad For Life
I created a new
rule… a rule is
always based on,
yes, mistakes that I
have made that has
lost me, or
my charitable trust,
a lot of money… it
is rule 11,
uninformed low
dollar amount
speculation
unequivocally can
wipe you out…
anybody who bought
Citigroup on the way
down as it went from
an under $10 name to
a penny stock
because the
financials were
under perpetual
seige from the short
sellers, knows
exactly what I am
talking about… if
you watch this show
for any amount of
time, you will
understand the value
of speculation.
Tonight I want to
talk to you about
the risk of
speculating… I want
to tell you the
story about the
biggest single loss
I have ever taken
for
my charitable trust,
ActionAlertsPlus.com,
which is all for
charity… this is a
stock that caused me
to not be able to
contribute $130,000
to charity…
And the name of the
stock is
Charter Communications Inc.…
I bought this
debt-laden cable
company at $4... way
back when I first
started
my charitable trust…
it was going to be
the speculative pick
in my portfolio… but
everything about my
decision making
process when I
bought this stock
was messed up… it
was distorted, and
that was all for one
reason… the mystique
of the under $10
stock… now I won’t
regale you of the
tell of how I dug in
my heels with this
one… for 18 months…
because I have
always felt that 18
months is how long
it takes a good
investment idea to
pan out… I held onto
Charter as the stock
sank lower and
lower…. eventually
selling it for $2...
I just want to
explain where I went
wrong when I decided
to buy the stock so
you won’t do it…
because it should
have been clear from
the beginning that
Charter wasn’t worth
owning.
When we look at a
stock with a share
price that is under
$10... we get taken
in by that mystique
of the single digit
stock… what does
that mean… you look
at a $4 stock and
you think to
yourself, it is
already down to $4,
how could I possibly
lose… yes, I know
that that is
irrational… but that
is part of the
attraction, isn’t
it… you have to know
that just because
the price is a low
dollar amount that
that doesn’t mean
that you can’t lose
a fortune… remember
how much I lost for
my charitable trust….
as I learned, it is
easy for a $4 stock
to become a $2
stock… and not with
a stock split… and
that 50% loss is the
same as if we were
talking about a $40
stock going to
$20... multiply it
by 10... there are a
lot of stocks out
there, stocks that
have been crushed…
that trade in the
single digits… some
of them deserve
their new low dollar
volume amounts… they
have got their new
$2 amount homes…
right, we now some
of them do.
Some of them don’t…
but never believe
that just because
they trade in the
single digits they
can’t give you huge
losses… here is
another mistake that
people make when
they look at these
stocks… one that I
made with Charter…
you think that just
because the share
price is a low
dollar amount,
because it looks
small… that it is
more likely to get
taken over…
irrational behavior…
again this is
irrational because
the companies that
might buy these
stocks know the same
things that we do…
they do not care
about the share
price… they care
about the price to
earnings multiple…
which is the stocks
true price… they
care about the
enterprise value… it
is like a trick of
the eye… it is a
mistake that you
will make unless you
know to watch for
it… that is why you
always have to apply
test whenever you
speculate with a low
dollar amount stock…
I want you to
multiply it by ten…
if the price was $40
and not $4, and
everything else
about the stock of
the company was the
same, would you
still like it… if I
had done this with
Charter, which was
drowning under its
weight with debt… I
never would have
bought the thing in
the first place… and
taken the biggest
loss in the history
of
my charitable trust.
You have to do this
because believe me
no matter how
experienced you are,
you will be drawn in
by that mystique of
these stocks that
are under $10... it
is bad… with the
under $5 stocks
being the worst… if
an experienced hand
like me can get
taken in by the
mystique surrounding
these stocks than
anyone can… trust
me…. now, always
remember when you
are speculating with
these low dollar
amount stocks… that
no company stock
ever falls below $5
because it wants to
be there… companies
don’t end up with
stock prices in the
single digits by
doing well…
sometimes they end
up there because the
market is a harsh
mistress, that takes
broken stocks, takes
them all the way
down… broken stocks,
broken companies,
alike… but you have
to make sure that
you are going after
the stock because
you like the
underlying company…
not because you are
attracted by that
low dollar amount.
Here is the bottom
line…
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The
Bottom Line!:
As long as you know
that low dollar
speculation can wipe
you out… as long as
you are aware of the
mystique of the
under $10 stock…
then you don’t have
to be taken in by
it, and lose money…
as I did... Don’t be
fooled, speculating
on low-dollar amount
stocks can wipe you
out. Low-dollar spec
plays can be
enticing… but they
can also be
dangerous… so please
proceed with
caution.
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[verbatim
recap]
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Jim went on after
this segment to take
questions from
callers, and
responded with his
comments...
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Q:
I don’t have much
money to invest. And
I know that cheap is
a relative term on
Wall Street. But is
there anything wrong
with me building a
portfolio from low
dollar stocks as a
strategy?
Jim:
Yes, there is…
because that tends
to be a class of
speculation… we
favor
diversification… of
which speculation
can be a style… let
me give you an
example, I think
that it is okay to
own a healthcare
stock, a Telco
stock, a defense
stock, and a tech
stock, and you can
then add a
speculative stock…
but you are viewing
five of a kind… all
speculation will
produce a wipe out…
that I promise you…
that is not
diversification… it
is all one asset
class… it is all one
sector… it is the
speculative sector.
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[verbatim
recap]
[end of segment]
Read Jim's next Segment
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