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Opening Segment #3: |
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'Debt
of
Gratitude' |
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Wednesday,
April 15, 2009 |
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Jim:
This show is about
knowing you, knowing
yourself, and
knowing the
companies that you
own… we have been
thru the know
thyself part of
things… now it is
time to talk about
how you know what
you own… that
involves doing good
homework… hear that
term all the time…
what is the right
homework… how do you
go about deciding
which companies are
good, and which ones
are bad… which have
stocks that are
worth buying and
which are worth
avoiding… maybe this
is basic… but I
think that it is
really important
that we get
everybody on the
same page… you have
to understand what
to look for when you
are trying to figure
out whether to buy
or sell something… I
get so many calls
and emails where
people have decent
ideas… but just miss
the point on so many
levels… they hear on
the news that some
sector is hot… that
is making people
lots and lots of
money… so they buy
lots and lots of
stocks in that one
group and that is
that… it is all they
know about the
company… it is why
they think it is
good… why they think
that it is worth
buying… let me tell
you that is not
enough...
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See comments continued below...
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Wednesday,
April 15, 2009
(Cont'd from
above)...
Jim
(cont'd):
I may play a lunatic
on TV and at home
for that matter… but
not when it comes to
moolah… money is too
important… when it
comes to your cash I
believe in rigor…
look, I did not make
all of money on Wall
Street because I am
super smart or some
kind of idiot stock
savant… I did it
because I worked
really hard, and I
was rigorous, and
disciplined… in
order to be
rigorous, you need
to understand what
rigor is… what good
judgment is when it
comes to stocks.
So let’s start from
the ground up… when
you invest in a
stock you need to be
totally sure that
you are investing in
the stock of a
viable company… not
some piece of
garbage… okay, I
said a viable
company, isn’t that
kind of a subjective
judgment… how can we
ever tell what is
viable and what is
not viable unless we
know the future… no,
save that discussion
for philosophy class
not Mad Money…
viable companies are
companies that make
money and don’t have
a lot of debt… it
seems intuitive,
dull even, but it is
true… and you need
to pay attention to
it… when a company
is burdened with
debt… it can’t pay
its bills if its
business gets into
trouble… and when
you can’t pay the
bills… the
creditors, the bond
holders, the banks,
they take over your
equity… you do not
want to own a stock
when the bond
bullies take over…
it goes from bull to
bear very quickly…
they have first dibs
if the companies you
own stock goes
under, in other
words, if a company
goes belly up, you
don’t own it… the
bond holders do… not
the common stock
holders.
Understand, you
can’t look at share
price if you want to
understand how a
company should be
valued… you need to
look at the debt
too… a Ford or a GM
have prudently my
whole career looked
really cheap… if you
just look at their
stock prices… but
when you factor in
all the bonds that
they have, all the
debt that they have…
you will see that
they are a whole lot
more expensive… and
we have seen all too
many banks go under
even though they
looked very cheap,
because of their bad
balance sheet… see
debt, debt, matters…
lots of debt can
strangle a healthy
business.
I know that for some
people this balance
sheet stuff can be
very intimidating… I
mean it all looks
like accounting
mumbo jumbo… but it
is really not that
hard… look, just
bring it down to a
human level, if you
make $40,000 a year
and you owe $50,000
in interest a year
on your mortgage…
you know that you
are going to be
foreclosed… you are
going to lose your
house… the same is
true for companies…
and every quarter
they give you a
balance sheet that
shows whether they
are taking in more
or less than they
are paying out… when
they hold their
conference calls
they also post their
balance sheets on
the web… or make
them otherwise
available so that
you can make the
kind of judgments
that I am talking
about.
Do not misunderstand
me and go overboard
in the other
direction… there are
plenty of times
where debt is good
for a company… a
retailer has to have
debt, they take in
inventory for
Christmas right…
retailers take down
a lot of debt in the
4th quarter so that
they have a lot of
things to sell for
the holidays… that
is fine… so long as
they make a lot of
money at Christmas
and don’t get stuck
with that inventory…
airlines take down a
lot of debt to buy
planes… I mean that
is excusable debt,
right… I mean they
are in the plane
business… but you
should never, never
own an airline
stock… because the
business is just too
hard to make money
in… cable companies,
on the other hand,
take down lots of
debt to lay cable…
again, that is okay…
as long as they are
making back more
than enough to pay
down the debt.
When you are going
over a companies
balance sheet I want
you to make Ebenezer
Scrooge look like a
spend thrift… the
credit crunch,
mortgage meltdown,
whatever you want to
call it… with
multiple bank
failures should be
enough to convince
anyone that balance
sheets are
important… if you
can’t understand
what is going on
when you look at a
companies balance
sheet… don’t own it…
Lehman Brothers had
some of the most
opaque, difficult to
understand financial
that I have ever
seen… and you know…
they went under.
Here is the bottom
line…
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The
Bottom Line!:
I will tell you more
about the kind of
homework that you
need to do before
you buy a stock
later this show… but
for now, just
remember to always
pay attention to the
debt and the cash
flow of the
companies that you
own… if you don’t
understand this
stuff, you can go
put your money in a
mutual fund…
indebted companies
make for bad stocks…
because your stock
is the collateral on
their debt… yeah,
your stock… you
specifically. The
debt & cash flow of
a company you own is
important - your
stock is the
collateral.
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[verbatim
recap]
[end of segment]
Read Jim's next Segment
here
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Read Jim's next Segment
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