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Final
Segment #1: |
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'Doing
Homework' |
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Wednesday,
April 15, 2009 |
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Jim:
I am always
telling you to
do your
homework,
so tonight we
are defining
that concept in
this special
know yourself
and your stocks
edition of Mad
Money… I told
you where to
look… companies'
public filings
and conference
calls… along
with any Wall
Street research
that you can get
your hands on…
but what should
you be looking
for… you are
reading this
stuff, it is
like Jim tells
me to read this
stuff, but what
am I looking for
here… you are
looking for how
a company is
doing… you are
looking for
clues about how
fast a company
is growing, as
measured by its
revenues… sales…
you are looking
for how
profitable a
company is, that
is the earnings…
when you figure
out between
sales and
earnings, you
subtract the
earnings that is
the gross
margin… if it is
a young company,
you want to see
fast revenue
growth… if it is
older, it should
be able to turn
its revenues
into profits…
and then
hopefully some
of those profits
into a dividend,
we love
dividends on Mad
Money… they keep
paying, and
paying, and
paying… really
mature companies
should be
looking to
maximize the
amount of cash
that they bring
in… so that they
can give it back
to you… the
shareholder...
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Continued below...
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Friday,
October 22, 2008
(Cont'd from
above)...
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We want to know
about revenue
growth, and we are
also looking at what
is called gross
margin… or how much
profitability each
sale can generate…
margins tell you how
much of these
revenues will turn
into earnings… I
mean you can sell
your head off and
not make any money…
we are not
interested in that…
to figure out the
gross margins… you
want to check out
the competition…
look at how
expensive the
companies product is
to make… look at the
cost of doing
business in general…
Microsoft, for
example, has
incredibly high
margins on its
operating system
because it is
virtually a
monopoly… there is
not much
competition…
supermarkets though
have bad margins…
they face cut throat
competition
everywhere… the
worst, airlines… you
can only imagine.
Now, depending on
the business… lots
of things can happen
to change the size
of your margins…
just look at what
happened with the
oil and natural gas
companies… when
prices spiked on
high demand and low
supply… the margins
got really fat… as
prices fell they
slimmed down… now
there are some kind
of companies called
cyclical companies…
and we think of
them… I want you to
think of them as
smoke stack
companies, because
cyclical sounds like
something from the
washing machine…
their revenues and
their margins
fluctuate than what
are called secular
growth companies…
the businesses that
pretty much make the
same amount of money
no matter how strong
the economy is… the
price of Dove soap,
or a can of
Coca-Cola, or a box
of cereal… it stays
pretty much the same
thing no matter what
our GDP happens to
be… these are
secular growth
companies.
When cyclical stocks
start taking a
beating… they are
predicating a big
economic down turn…
they usually do it 6
months ahead… so
when the cyclicals
start losing
revenues, when their
margins start
getting beaten up…
you should be buying
secular growth
stocks… the ones
that survive and
thrive in a down
turn… it is a tried
and true formula for
trying to make a lot
of money… now look
if you diversify you
can own cyclical and
secular growth… that
might be the way to
do it if you can’t
pay that much
attention… but when
the economy is weak,
you should be
reaching for Kellogg
and Coke… but you
only know the
economy is weak
because say you
listened to the
Whirlpool conference
call and they say,
oh boy we can’t sell
these washing
machines or dryers…
that is why you do
homework… so you can
understand how
individual stocks
look… and so you can
understand what
those individual
stocks tell you
about the market as
a whole.
Remember, half of
the stocks forward
performance can be
predicated by what
sector it is in… its
neighborhood… so it
is important to know
what moves various
sectors and how they
do in various
economic
circumstances… that
is why I use my 10
point scale to
compare companies in
the same company…
they can earn up to
5 points, 5 total
points for the
sector, because it
controls half of
their performance…
but we are not just
looking at the macro
picture when we do
homework… we are
especially looking
at industry specific
key metrics… to tell
you how a company is
doing compared to
its peers… that
along with things
like dividends and
buy backs are where
I award the other 5
points… remember,
that proprietary Mad
Money 10 point
scale, we break it
out all the time.
For example, when we
are looking at cable
companies… what is
the key metric
there… Wall Street
uses an enterprise
value divided by the
number of
subscribers…
enterprise value is
just market cap plus
its debt… it is
jibberish, right… it
is what a company
would cost if
another company were
to acquire it… how
about hotels… the
key metric there is
the average revenue
per room, rev par…
for wireless
providers it is
average revenue for
user, rev pu… for
retailers, the key
metric is same
stores, same stores
sales, ss… you
measure restaurants
by same store sales…
you just look at
total revenues for a
retailer or a
restaurant, that
does not help…
because look if it
is total revenues,
they just put up
more stores and it
looks like they are
doing well… it
doesn’t tell you how
well the core
business is growing…
that is why you
compare store by how
it did the next
year… for tech
stocks, you want to
look at gross
margins per product
sold… that is the
metric there… for
financials, you look
at the net interest
margin, or how much
money was made on
each dollar that the
bank, insurance
company, or savings
and loan had in
assets if they pay
you as a depositor
x, and they make a
loan at 3x, well
they are making 2x…
net interest margin.
Once you know how a
company measures up
on its key metrics…
you look at how it
compares to its
competitors… usually
the companies with
the best numbers are
best of breed… and
deserve a premium
evaluation… they
should have price to
earnings multiples
that are higher
relative to their
growth rates than
what their
competitors get.
Here is the bottom
line about all of
this...
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The
Bottom Line!:
When you do your
homework,
not all information
is created equal…
know whether the
companies you own
are cyclical or
secular growth
companies… know the
key metrics and how
they compare to
their competitors…
both as companies
and as stocks.
Surviving in the
market takes hard
work - but not all
the info is obvious,
dig deep.
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Read Jim's next Segment
here
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Read Jim's next Segment
here
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