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Opening Segment #3: |
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'Top
Of Your
Game' |
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Thursday,
April 16, 2009 |
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Jim:
You are extra lucky
tonight because I am
opening up my play
book from the hedge
fund and teaching
you the secrets of
my crystal ball… how
do I know which way
a stock will move
before it happens…
it is simple and
easy… I pay
attention, do my
homework, and
remember my
disciplines…
tonight’s show is
entirely about how
we spot moves in
stocks before they
happen… so we do not
get caught with our
pants down… now see
in the old days,
before I became a
statesman, I would
have just lowered my
pants … we do not
want our pants down
and spend days and
weeks frustrated
that we did not see
something big
coming…. like a
train wreck… I have
been talking about
tops and why you
need to be ready for
them… and how you
can see them coming
and bail on a stock
before they hit… I
have five key tails…
write them down…
five things that let
me know that a stock
has reached, or
about to reach its
top and it is time
to bail… I have
given you two of the
queues… when all of
the analysts become
bullish and there
are no bears left to
convert, everyone is
here… and when
competition comes in
and starts to wreck
the companies
business… you can
watch for these and
catch them, before
they cause a top if
you do the homework…
that is what it is
about… the homework,
the homework,
keeping up on who is
coming in...
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See comments continued below...
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Thursday,
April 16, 2009
(Cont'd from
above)...
Jim
(cont'd):
Now I will tell you
the three other
causes of tops…
three things that
mean it is time for
you to sell while
the selling is still
good… first, and
this is the bane of
my existence, and no
doubt yours…
accounting
irregularities… I
say this in Jim
Cramer’s
Real Money: Sane Investing In An
Insane World
and know I am saying
it again… accounting
irregularities equal
sell… no matter
what… no exceptions…
I don’t care what
you think of a
company… I do not
care how well it has
worked for you in
the past… when you
see a company
messing around with
its financial… the
holy grail of what
we do… you know it
is in trouble… it is
not just that lying
about the numbers is
illegal… it is that
the only companies
that screw with
their numbers are
the ones that can’t
make them… not every
company with an
accounting scandal
is an Enron waiting
to happen… although,
I will note that if
you had sold Enron
when the first news
of their accounting
fraud broke, you
could have made it
out of the stock
with some of your
money intact… rather
than with nothing…
first accounting
irregularities broke
at around $40... the
last ones broke at
zero… when you see
accounting
irregularities, I am
going to say it
again, you have to
sell… sometimes you
will be wrong but
far more often you
will be right… I
know that a lot of
people feel like
that rule kept me
out of making x or
y… no that is the
wrong way to look at
it… that rule will
prevent you from
having a black hole
in your portfolio…
and no, an options
backdating problem
is not an accounting
problem… it is a
compensation
problem… let’s
understand an
accounting problem
means that the
numbers are phony…
but companies that
backdate options for
their officers don’t
do it because
business is bad,
like companies that
lie about their
financials… they do
it because business
is good and getting
better… those
executives would
rather take stock
than cash because of
the future… if
anything an options
backdating problem
can be a reason to
buy a stock, not
sell… and we have
proved time and
again on this show
that that is exactly
what you should have
done.
The next way that
you can see a top
coming a mile away…
over expansion… on
Mad Money we like
growth… we recognize
that growth is like
crack to Wall
Street… people can’t
get enough of it…
the Street tends to
love acquisitions
and rapid expansion…
and those are the
easiest ways to make
growth happen…
sometimes an
acquisition is great
but sometimes it is
a problem… a sign of
over expansion, a
sign of growing too
fast, it can’t be
managed… growth that
can’t be contained
and can’t be
controlled… that is
just out of control…
a sign that you
should get out… the
same with franitic
store openings or
office expansions,
it is hard to
execute these things
properly and if a
company can’t pull
it off… your stock
will end up peaking
rather than going
higher… I always,
always watch for a
company that is
growing so fast that
it takes your breath
away… the code for
over expansion on
the street, we call
it integration
problems… when you
hear management say
those two not so
magic words,
integration
problems, top
coming… when you
read them, when you
hear them… it is
time for you to run,
don’t walk, for
this… sell, sell,
sell.
It is easy to spot
over expansion in
retail too… we like
retailers that grow
their store cam… but
when you see them
put up a massive
number of stores
relative to their
base all at once…
shoot first, ask
questions later…
that is a retailer
that is asking for
trouble… it is a
sign of weakness not
strength… masking
something… just
watch those same
store sale numbers
to see how much the
existing business
gets hurt by over
expansion… you will
know that the top is
coming.. I happen to
really like to look
same store sales
numbers of older
sales to see if that
is a problem… the
other trouble that
retailers have with
over expansion is
saturation… when you
see a retailer
already has stores
in all 50 states… I
am calling a top
right there… running
out of room to grow…
no growth means that
the stock is about
to take a long maybe
permanent slide
down… remember
Wal-Mart.
The last sign of an
impending top is
government action…
the government at
the Federal or state
level can do more to
hurt a company than
any competitor… how
do you spot this
kind of top… check
out the front pages
of The New York
Times, the front
pages The Wall
Street Journal… the
USA Today, I have
seen a bunch there…
and Washington Post…
I start my day with
them electronically
inserting my stocks
names in their
search engines to
see what articles
come up… please
don’t just stick to
the business
section, because it
never pays enough
attention to
Washington.
The bottom line…
▼ ▼
▼ ▼
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The
Bottom Line!:
If you want to spot
a top and get out
before it happens…
watch for accounting
irregularities, over
expansion, and
worst, I think,
government
intervention... Your
stock may have hit a
top if there’s
accounting
irregularities,
overexpansion or
government
intervention, these
are all signals to
sell... Watch for
accounting
irregularities they
equal sell, watch
for over expansion
they equal sell,
watch for government
intervention they
equal sell.
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[verbatim
recap]
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Jim went on after
this segment to take
questions from
callers, and
responded with his
comments...
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Q:
I notice that in
addition to looking
at the nuts and
bolts of a company,
you sometimes pay
attention to the
psychology behind
the traders and the
markets, and what is
going on in the
news. I wanted to
hear your take on
what Robert Prector
has been doing with
the Elliott Wave
principal, that uses
this idea of mass
psychology almost
exclusively?
Jim:
Well, you know what,
I actually used to
listen to his calls
in the 80’s… but you
know what, he kind
of stayed too
negative… and I
would have left out
a lot… I guess what
I am saying that I
dismiss him, I do
not want to pay lip
service to people
that I do not listen
to on this show… do
I want his
friendship, I say at
the top of every
show, it is not
about friendship, it
is about money.. he
does not make any
for me.
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[verbatim
recap]
[end of segment]
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