Opening Segment #3:
'Exquisite Moment'
Friday, April 17, 2009
 

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Jim:     We are celebrating history.. . not only is CNBC 20 year history… but today we are also celebrating the importance of knowing the history of stocks… if you want to be a good investor… it is impossible to perfectly predict where the market is going… and that is not the business we are in this show as much as people may typify it as it… see it is possible, however, to recognize patterns… to learn how the big boys, the indusial money managers who run so much dough and do so many trades, they pretty much get to decide stock prices in the short run… how they will react to events… so you can get ahead of them… when they are right, you can make a lot of money… and you can bet against them if they are going to be wrong...

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Market Results today:

Dow:  + 5

Nasdaq:  + 2

S&P 500:  + 4

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Friday, April 17, 2009
(Cont'd from above)...

Jim (cont'd):

Now I am a fundamentalist at heart, not in the mold of Jerry Falwell, Cotton Mather, or the Iotola… but more like Warren Buffett or Benjamin Graham… someone who believes that the best way to pick stocks is by looking at the underlying companies… and picking the ones that are in the best shape… or that look like they will be able to improve… but even I admit that is important to know more than just the fundamentals… you also have to understand how the big money is going to react to the fundamentals… you almost never hear anyone else say anything like this… because there is no percentage in them telling you… most of the big money guys want to keep you ignorant… so that they can collect your fees and your commissions… unlike me, I just want your adulation… and I hope to get it by being the best teacher I can be… and also by being right… so that I can tell you that big money is human.

The people running these firms are people… they get nervous… same as anyone else, although they never show it on TV, they are good actors… they are afraid of uncertainty… they get exuberate too… if you give the big money beasts some kind of positive event, some reason to buy, then it doesn’t care where stocks have been.. it will just gobble them up, buying everything in sight… because the people making the decisions, they have become more upbeat… they are human.

There are few cases when this has been more obvious than right before the first war in Iraq, and right before the second war in Iraq… each time investors were expecting the worst… the big money guys overestimated the danger of these big bad events… and they sent the market down, down, down… way down… ahead of the events… both times it created what I call, at my hedge fund, and then what I called when I was with Larry Kudlow, on Kudlow and Cramer… an exquisite moment… a time where if you bought right, if you kept some money on the sidelines and you applied it correctly after the market had come down, and then you invested it right at the bottom… right before the big bad events when everyone was terrified… than you had gains that allowed you to beat most professionals for years.

The trick was being able to identify these exquisite moments… so let’s take a look back, 1990 when Iraq invaded Kuwait and the market trembled…

[They then showed a news clip of Gulf War invasion]

As it became clear that the United States was going to intervene, the market just kept going dramatically lower… it was a true bear market… every indicator that I followed at my old hedge fund was screaming that things would get worse… that it was the time to be selling not buying… but the moment that the bombs started falling the stocks came back with a vengeance… the markets could not handle the uncertainty… even though it was pretty clear that we would be able to win the war without taking too many casualties… after all we beat Fermont in the desert, how hard would it be to beat Iraq… and if you bought then, you caught a historic rally… that coincided with the longest peace time expansion in the US economy.

Now, we got a similar exquisite moment in 2002, 2003... where a market bottom coincided with the run up and start of the next Iraq war… I am not saying that the way to have the market bottom is to invade Iraq… although if you are the kind of person that think that correlations imply causation, then maybe that is not such a terrible idea… what both wars had in common, both bottoms had in common… was that people behind the big money dramatically overestimated how bad the event would be… and when it finally happened… and was not nearly as terrible as they expected… it made them feel better and made them want to buy, buy, buy… when the sentiment is overwhelmingly negative… when even the biggest bulls are capitulating like I did in 1998... and when you have a catalyst like either Iraq war… then you have the ingredients for another exquisite moment… something that you do not want to miss.

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The Bottom Line!:      We may have something similar in March of 2009... only time will tell… but if you want to know how these moments will look like in the future… you need to know how they look in the past...   Try to look for the next exquisite moment… each time we had them there were so many bears, it was so thick… that you had to pull the trigger and buy.

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[verbatim recap]

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Jim went on after this segment to take questions from callers, and responded with his comments...

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Q:    How has your investing strategy changed over the past 20 years, with so many people investing on their own today?

Jim:   
Okay, I think that the big change that I have had to adjust to… one is the regulation that the SEC put together which said that you could not have informal discussions with management, you used to be able to… and the second is, because I now run a charitable trust, AAP, I have holding periods… so that forces me to think more than just a day, more than a 2 day… and if I mention a stock on this show,
my charitable trust is frozen… so what I am trying to do is figure out, I now use a 6 to 18 month timeframe… I don’t try to figure out where stocks are going to be in the next hour, like I did in my hedge fund… or the next day, or the next week, but where they are going to be next year… and that has enabled me to outperform this current market… why, because if you have a view of where things are going to be a year from now… you will informed and be able to take advantage of the markets declines, to put money to work where you want it.

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Q:    I make a living as an investor and a trader, so I have the TV on all day. And what happens is that I watch all the pros, the top managers, top investors, the chartists... And half the people give all the reasons why the market is going to go up, and then the other half give all the reasons why the market is going to go down. And both sides give very compelling arguments, and it leads to the individual like myself, sitting on my cheap linoleum floor going, what do I do?

Jim:   
This is a difficult issue… and I will tell you why… because when I was at my hedge fund, I used to pit two managers against each other who worked for me… and then I would make the decision… it is difficult that most home gamers can have the ability to discern between two arguments… but you know what, I think that the battle of ideas produces the best buys… when you hear someone who has an argument for it, and then an argument against it, it tests your conviction… when I was at Goldman Sachs and I was teaching… I used to have one guy give a negative story, and then one guy give the positive story, and then vote on it… and I always found that everyone was more informed and was able to have a better election, just like in politics, by hearing both sides of the story… why is it important… because when the stock goes down, you remember why you liked it… you have heard the bear case already, and you are not shaken out low… it is to stop buy high, go out low… I think that the networks philosophy is a good one.

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Q:    As I have invested for my retirement account, I have tried to buy stocks at lows. In your career, how do you think bottom feeders end up compared to those who trade during huge bull markets?

Jim:   
I think bottom feeders have done quite poorly, frankly… I think that people are always too intrigued by stocks that look like they are cheap because they have come down.. I think the best stocks to buy are best of breed stocks… they tend never to get to those levels… I think that the bottom feeders of the last generation are going to be the last bottom feeders for a long time… these are the people who bought the MBIA’s, they bought the insurers, they bought the savings & loans… and they will maybe never recover… had they stock with best of breed and not getting involved with companies with bad balance sheets… even though the stocks were high… they would live to play another day.

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Q:    In your career you have saw many bull and bear markets, and you have mentioned from time to time overbought and oversold indicators. But what are the transition signals that we can look for from a bear to a bull market?

Jim:   
I think the main one is the spares measured by the number of bulls in the market vs. bears, that is a number that comes out Wednesday… I like the oscillator, I mentioned that, I use the S&P’s 500 oscillator… I pay to get that… but one of the things I find that is most important is that when the bears seem to be overwhelming on TV… I am using that as a new trend… when I hear the bears, no one says that they want to buy… I was talking to a friend, he puts out a newsletter… and he came on a rival network yesterday, and he was asked do you like the market… and he said yes, and the guy was shocked… he said that he was the first guy to come on and say that I like the market right here… and I was conscious as I listened to everybody, and they said maybe lower I like it, no not here, or you missed the chance… there were so few, few bulls during the bottom in March… that is what you needed to look for… it is the number of bears that you hear on TV… when they predominate, start buying.

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[verbatim recap]

[end of segment]


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