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Opening Segment #3: |
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'Exquisite
Moment' |
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Friday,
April 17, 2009 |
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Jim's
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Jim:
We are celebrating
history.. . not only
is CNBC 20 year
history… but today
we are also
celebrating the
importance of
knowing the history
of stocks… if you
want to be a good
investor… it is
impossible to
perfectly predict
where the market is
going… and that is
not the business we
are in this show as
much as people may
typify it as it… see
it is possible,
however, to
recognize patterns…
to learn how the big
boys, the indusial
money managers who
run so much dough
and do so many
trades, they pretty
much get to decide
stock prices in the
short run… how they
will react to
events… so you can
get ahead of them…
when they are right,
you can make a lot
of money… and you
can bet against them
if they are going to
be wrong...
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See comments continued below...
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Friday,
April 17, 2009
(Cont'd from
above)...
Jim
(cont'd):
Now I am a
fundamentalist at
heart, not in the
mold of Jerry
Falwell, Cotton
Mather, or the
Iotola… but more
like
Warren Buffett
or Benjamin Graham…
someone who believes
that the best way to
pick stocks is by
looking at the
underlying
companies… and
picking the ones
that are in the best
shape… or that look
like they will be
able to improve… but
even I admit that is
important to know
more than just the
fundamentals… you
also have to
understand how the
big money is going
to react to the
fundamentals… you
almost never hear
anyone else say
anything like this…
because there is no
percentage in them
telling you… most of
the big money guys
want to keep you
ignorant… so that
they can collect
your fees and your
commissions… unlike
me, I just want your
adulation… and I
hope to get it by
being the best
teacher I can be…
and also by being
right… so that I can
tell you that big
money is human.
The people running
these firms are
people… they get
nervous… same as
anyone else,
although they never
show it on TV, they
are good actors…
they are afraid of
uncertainty… they
get exuberate too…
if you give the big
money beasts some
kind of positive
event, some reason
to buy, then it
doesn’t care where
stocks have been..
it will just gobble
them up, buying
everything in sight…
because the people
making the
decisions, they have
become more upbeat…
they are human.
There are few cases
when this has been
more obvious than
right before the
first war in Iraq,
and right before the
second war in Iraq…
each time investors
were expecting the
worst… the big money
guys overestimated
the danger of these
big bad events… and
they sent the market
down, down, down…
way down… ahead of
the events… both
times it created
what I call, at my
hedge fund, and then
what I called when I
was with Larry
Kudlow, on Kudlow
and Cramer… an
exquisite moment… a
time where if you
bought right, if you
kept some money on
the sidelines and
you applied it
correctly after the
market had come
down, and then you
invested it right at
the bottom… right
before the big bad
events when everyone
was terrified… than
you had gains that
allowed you to beat
most professionals
for years.
The trick was being
able to identify
these exquisite
moments… so let’s
take a look back,
1990 when Iraq
invaded Kuwait and
the market trembled…
[They then showed a
news clip of Gulf
War invasion]
As it became clear
that the United
States was going to
intervene, the
market just kept
going dramatically
lower… it was a true
bear market… every
indicator that I
followed at my old
hedge fund was
screaming that
things would get
worse… that it was
the time to be
selling not buying…
but the moment that
the bombs started
falling the stocks
came back with a
vengeance… the
markets could not
handle the
uncertainty… even
though it was pretty
clear that we would
be able to win the
war without taking
too many casualties…
after all we beat
Fermont in the
desert, how hard
would it be to beat
Iraq… and if you
bought then, you
caught a historic
rally… that
coincided with the
longest peace time
expansion in the US
economy.
Now, we got a
similar exquisite
moment in 2002,
2003... where a
market bottom
coincided with the
run up and start of
the next Iraq war… I
am not saying that
the way to have the
market bottom is to
invade Iraq…
although if you are
the kind of person
that think that
correlations imply
causation, then
maybe that is not
such a terrible
idea… what both wars
had in common, both
bottoms had in
common… was that
people behind the
big money
dramatically
overestimated how
bad the event would
be… and when it
finally happened…
and was not nearly
as terrible as they
expected… it made
them feel better and
made them want to
buy, buy, buy… when
the sentiment is
overwhelmingly
negative… when even
the biggest bulls
are capitulating
like I did in
1998... and when you
have a catalyst like
either Iraq war…
then you have the
ingredients for
another exquisite
moment… something
that you do not want
to miss.
▼ ▼
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The
Bottom Line!:
We may have
something similar in
March of 2009...
only time will tell…
but if you want to
know how these
moments will look
like in the future…
you need to know how
they look in the
past...
Try to look for the
next exquisite
moment… each time we
had them there were
so many bears, it
was so thick… that
you had to
pull the trigger
and buy.
▼ ▼
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[verbatim
recap]
▼ ▼
▼ ▼
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Jim went on after
this segment to take
questions from
callers, and
responded with his
comments...
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Q:
How has your
investing strategy
changed over the
past 20 years, with
so many people
investing on their
own today?
Jim:
Okay, I think that
the big change that
I have had to adjust
to… one is the
regulation that the
SEC put together
which said that you
could not have
informal discussions
with management, you
used to be able to…
and the second is,
because I now run a
charitable trust,
AAP, I have holding
periods… so that
forces me to think
more than just a
day, more than a 2
day… and if I
mention a stock on
this show,
my charitable trust
is frozen… so what I
am trying to do is
figure out, I now
use a 6 to 18 month
timeframe… I don’t
try to figure out
where stocks are
going to be in the
next hour, like I
did in my hedge
fund… or the next
day, or the next
week, but where they
are going to be next
year… and that has
enabled me to
outperform this
current market… why,
because if you have
a view of where
things are going to
be a year from now…
you will informed
and be able to take
advantage of the
markets declines, to
put money to work
where you want it.
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Q:
I make a living as
an investor and a
trader, so I have
the TV on all day.
And what happens is
that I watch all the
pros, the top
managers, top
investors, the
chartists... And
half the people give
all the reasons why
the market is going
to go up, and then
the other half give
all the reasons why
the market is going
to go down. And both
sides give very
compelling
arguments, and it
leads to the
individual like
myself, sitting on
my cheap linoleum
floor going, what do
I do?
Jim:
This is a difficult
issue… and I will
tell you why…
because when I was
at my hedge fund, I
used to pit two
managers against
each other who
worked for me… and
then I would make
the decision… it is
difficult that most
home gamers can have
the ability to
discern between two
arguments… but you
know what, I think
that the battle of
ideas produces the
best buys… when you
hear someone who has
an argument for it,
and then an argument
against it, it tests
your conviction…
when I was at
Goldman Sachs and I
was teaching… I used
to have one guy give
a negative story,
and then one guy
give the positive
story, and then vote
on it… and I always
found that everyone
was more informed
and was able to have
a better election,
just like in
politics, by hearing
both sides of the
story… why is it
important… because
when the stock goes
down, you remember
why you liked it…
you have heard the
bear case already,
and you are not
shaken out low… it
is to stop buy high,
go out low… I think
that the networks
philosophy is a good
one.
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Q:
As I have invested
for my retirement
account, I have
tried to buy stocks
at lows. In your
career, how do you
think bottom feeders
end up compared to
those who trade
during huge bull
markets?
Jim:
I think bottom
feeders have done
quite poorly,
frankly… I think
that people are
always too intrigued
by stocks that look
like they are cheap
because they have
come down.. I think
the best stocks to
buy are best of
breed stocks… they
tend never to get to
those levels… I
think that the
bottom feeders of
the last generation
are going to be the
last bottom feeders
for a long time…
these are the people
who bought the
MBIA’s, they bought
the insurers, they
bought the savings &
loans… and they will
maybe never recover…
had they stock with
best of breed and
not getting involved
with companies with
bad balance sheets…
even though the
stocks were high…
they would live to
play another day.
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Q:
In your career you
have saw many bull
and bear markets,
and you have
mentioned from time
to time overbought
and oversold
indicators. But what
are the transition
signals that we can
look for from a bear
to a bull market?
Jim:
I think the main one
is the spares
measured by the
number of bulls in
the market vs.
bears, that is a
number that comes
out Wednesday… I
like the oscillator,
I mentioned that, I
use the S&P’s 500
oscillator… I pay to
get that… but one of
the things I find
that is most
important is that
when the bears seem
to be overwhelming
on TV… I am using
that as a new trend…
when I hear the
bears, no one says
that they want to
buy… I was talking
to a friend, he puts
out a newsletter…
and he came on a
rival network
yesterday, and he
was asked do you
like the market… and
he said yes, and the
guy was shocked… he
said that he was the
first guy to come on
and say that I like
the market right
here… and I was
conscious as I
listened to
everybody, and they
said maybe lower I
like it, no not
here, or you missed
the chance… there
were so few, few
bulls during the
bottom in March…
that is what you
needed to look for…
it is the number of
bears that you hear
on TV… when they
predominate, start
buying.
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[verbatim
recap]
[end of segment]
Read Jim's next Segment
here
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