Tuesday, April 21, 2009
(Cont'd from above)...

Jim (cont'd):   

They succumbed to their emotions and they lost money… they sold into the abyss… and now they have to look at the prices where they sold… and you know what they want to do… they want to slit their wrists… here, here panickers… borrow my bowie… knock yourself out… shoot yourself like one-time fave Tony Almada (i.e., a character from the TV series, "24")… oops, wrong network… because that is how stupid people are… I try to be a statesman… but sometime I have just got to call them like I see them… panicking yesterday wasn’t just idiotic… it was the Darwin awards… please remove yourself from the human gene pool dumb.

Let me explain the textbook action today in light of what happened yesterday… remember I told you that we are in classic bull market mode now, and that I would not be there to tell you to pull the trigger once we are down 5% from the high… where buyers traditionally surface… but that is where you had to buy… and isn’t that just what happened… think about it… what happened at the opening, we dropped to being down 5% from that high, it was a perfect down opening… it was exactly the right level… even though the futures were negative and everyone was scared… first to bottom as we pointed out was technology… and again it was the usual suspects, Amazon.com (AMZN), Google (GOOG), Research In Motion (RIMM), and Apple (AAPL)… they turned first as we said that they would right from the opening bell… that is your tell… a gambling term that gives you a heads up on what your opponent, in this case the market, is about to do…. consider those four the buy signal… by the way, Oracle (ORCL) will help too… man I urge you not to bet against Larry Ellison, the market likes the Sun Microsystems (JAVA) purchase...

Next, came the banks… now everyone was panicking yesterday, panicking over faulty and false press reports that the government wants to nationalize banks… we said that Geithner would stick a fork in that one, and that is just what he did… which triggered the rally we were looking for in Goldman Sachs and JP Morgan, the two best banks… and they soared right back up… as did Bank of America… and I reiterate there was nothing wrong Bank of America, even though I like it less than JP Morgan and Goldman Sachs… people came on all day yesterday and today and told you that there were things that were wrong… they are not people who do the homework… that is what I do… there was nothing wrong… there was nothing great… but there was nothing wrong.

And then the oils… oversold on the crude price which dropped 10% yesterday… another buy… just like that the 4% yielders reverse and go up… techs, banks, oil… the trinity of leadership… the three in one oil that brought us up from the March bottom… which was right back in play again, driving stocks higher today… now here is something that I didn’t expect… good news from two unexpected fronts… industrials, where United Technologies and Caterpillar performed magnificently… I will tell you that in the old days these big industrial companies would be getting killed right here in the cycle… they would be losing fortunes… that is not happening… although Cat did have a tough quarter… the stock was looking down big, I bought some for my charitable trust… I know what the play book is… it is clear that Cat is cutting costs to the bone… and by the way, how about how they talked positively about orders from China… United Technologies not only said that things have stabilized, it also said … this is amazing… March was good… can you imagine… this is the first time that I have heard any major company say that March was actually strong… I am reeling from this positive… because it is just plain… bullish.

But do you know what totally blindsided me… the higher end of retail… which has just been a wasteland… a disaster… a terrific number from Coach… plus a dividend… Scott Watt6man a great interview today with Lou Frankfort, just fabulous… the handbag market has stabilized and I should have known… as the Coach bags sold in China town have been selling like flapjacks, or perhaps like pot stickers… although, I do not know how much the company benefits from some of those outlets.

All of these… every bit of it would have been missed by those who took council by their fears or worse… took council in the bears… who are saying that any minute now the banks will be nationalized… commodities will crash… and technology stocks will cool… do you know what the toughest thing to swallow here… and I am not talking about the bowie knife again… it is that the bears, who told you to sell, who freaked you out, who scared you… well, they are nowhere to be seen… I want to know, where did Yogi and Boo-Boo wander off to… I have often thought, I wish they sell bear hunting licenses for Jellystone National Park…. I would be in there with my AK47’s and Quad 50’s… if Nancy Polisi would let me.

The endless articles about how Geithner and company want to smash down the common stocks of the banks or that the consumers did… I read a half dozen of them… or that the stimulus plans worldwide are failing… or that the strong dollar will be the end of us… all gone… where did those bears go… I mean they did their job, they did their job… they scared you out of your Dr. Denton feet pajamas, or your Calvin Klein tighty whities… and now they have vanished back to their hedge funds where they were shorting stocks and knocking them down hoping that you would panic… or they went back to the universities so they can opine with tenure, so they can be as wrong as… well, let’s just say the market… yet never lose their jobs… I am urging you to ban panic as a strategy… and if you do not like the market, then sell tomorrow… that is fine… you can be a bear without being too frightened to think… just don’t sell right into the vortex, right into the maelstrom, now matter how scared you get.

Here is the bottom line…

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The Bottom Line!:     Panic… shear panic did not work yesterday… it won’t work tomorrow… it has never worked… there is always a better moment to lighten up… be patient and wait for it… and please, never again… you can not afford to lose your cool... Panic is the enemy of this market, practice patience before making your next move.  The Dow is up… wide spread panic yesterday was a defeatist and losing strategy… if you want to sell… wait for a better moment.

[verbatim recap]

[verbatim recap]

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