Opening Segment #3:
'Off The Charts'
Tuesday, April 21, 2009
 

Jim's
rating on
this stock

STOCK
SYMBOL

Closing
price that
day

Full Company Name

PEP*

49.35

Pepsi (PEP*)

KO

43.05

Coca-Cola (KO)

Jim:     Believe it or not, I am all about style… my job is to figure out what will be in vogue at the Wall Street fashion show… keep you informed about what the big money managers are thinking… and what is influencing their decision making, not just mine… and that is why we go off the charts every Tuesday… even though I think that technical analysis, the whole process of looking at a stocks past action to figure out where it will go in the future, the pictorial… is kind of a bunch of mumbo jumbo, not to mention chicken gumbo… which is why I am a fundamentalist… meaning that I like to look at how the underlying company is doing, not that I am buddy, buddy with the Taliban… what matters is that the big boys take the charts really seriously… so that means that we have to too… it means that we need to study them… so that we can stay nimble and one step ahead… we need to understand what they see… so today we are looking at a chart of Coke (KO)… with some help from Rick Bensignor, he is the chief market strategist at Execution Limited, and my colleague who writes at TheStreet.com, where I am chairman, top writer, and of course, four-time ice skating champion...

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Market Results today:

Dow:  + 127

Nasdaq:  + 35

S&P 500:  + 17

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Tuesday, April 21, 2009
(Cont'd from above)...

Jim (cont'd):

Bensignor remember, is the one who nailed Bank of America (BAC) on this show, back at the beginning of March… he gave us a double from when he featured his call on this show, and it was quite a move… Bensignor thinks that Coke is a buy on any pullback, this is really interesting… let me pull back to the low $40’s of which is pretty close to here right… the stock was down to $43, on a very bad day… it was off $1.25... now, what does he see in the chart… this is really important… this is what they are all looking at in the big offices… they are all opening their desk drawers and they are looking at the chart at these big mutual funds.

First, Coke’s 2009 lows are right up against the 2006 low, the 2004 low, and the 2003 low… that makes the level seem like a long term low… one that is firmly in place so people feel emboldened by the fact that that is where the stock has held before… the other thing is very, well it is important but it is a little more complicated… it is something that he calls, and what other people call it, is the demark models… know all you need to know about this method, is that instead of helping to identify trends, like most chartists do, the demark models try and show when a trend is over… on a chart you want to look for the number 13 in red… now, I mean I have got them circled right here… to show you how they have predicted big trend changes in the past… and you can see that we have hit another one… which is a buy… a buy signal, as it indicates to technicians that the sellers have become exhausted… they do not want to sell down here anymore… this is actually only the third down side exhaustion buy signal in Coke’s chart in the past 4 years… but the earlier ones along with the sell signals, have all been pretty spot on.

So, again, people feel comfortable at this level… particularly because look how many points you could possibly get if you are right…

No Coke… Pepsi.. .is anyone out there old enough to remember that one?…

[ Jim then showed a clip of old Saturday Night Live, featuring the John Belushi/Dan Ackroyd skit, "No Coke, Pepsi" ]

This is my analysis... I like
Pepsi (PEP*) like John Belushi… I mean those guys were good weren’t they… you should know that I once led a pilgrimage to John Belushi’s grave in Martha’s Vineyard, although, I was the only one that was sober and aware of the surroundings at the time.

Anyway, do I favor Pepsi over Coke… because while it looks like both companies will benefit from the potential coming stabilization in North American beverages… Pepsi is well ahead of the curve, when it comes to their own destiny… Pepsi is moving to buy the remaining share of its bottlers in order to create a leaner, more nimble business model… that will improve the speed of decision making, strengthening its ties to retailers, and also I think save $200m or .15 cents per share… I think that it is savvy.. in sharp contrast to Coke, which may have a strained relationship with its main North American bottler… why buy Coke when it really reported a nothing quarter today, that I think could lead many analysts to cut numbers… when you can buy Pepsi which beat the streets consensus by .04 cents when it reported yesterday… the company had the misfortune of reporting on a terrible, horrible, no good, very bad day.. and the stock is below where it was when the good news came out… and it did not help that Coke reported that number that people didn’t like… bad news for those of us like me, who already have some Pepsi in
my charitable trust, ActionAlertsPlus.com, but good news for anyone who wants to buy the stock now, and has just been looking for the right entry point… and I think you have got it.

Because Pepsi’s business is much less international than Coke’s… Pepsi is only 35% international, Coke is 80%… I am less worried about the vulnerability to a strong dollar… strong dollar is worse for Coke than Pepsi… Pepsi also has room to grow internationally… Pepsi is going to take advantage of that fact investing $3b in Mexico, $1b in China, on top of a recent acquisition in Russia… it also has the more diversified business mix… Frito-Lay makes it the world leader in snacks… Coke is really beverages, although they have made some good acquisitions… plus Pepsi also has a nifty restructuring program, $350 to $450 million a year cost cuts… gives them the flexibility to create new products… the money will also be able to be used to promote and market old products… both companies are benefiting from lower commodity costs… and if the cola war has come to an end and the North American business stabilizes… both Coke and Pepsi will win… but I think Pepsi wins more…. I think that it is in a much better position to capitalize on any improvement… and much more control of its own destiny… no Coke…
Pepsi (PEP*).

The bottom line…

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The Bottom Line!:      The technicals are bullish on Coke… and as while I do not dislike Coke, I can’t see why anyone would own it when they can own Pepsi (PEP*) instead… that is right… John Belushi has got it together… no Coke… Pepsi. Despite what the charts say about Coke (KO), I think PEP’s the company that could quench your thirst. The charts say that Coke is a knock out play… but I think that Pepsi will be the champion.

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[verbatim recap]

 

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Jim went on after this segment to take questions from callers, and responded with his comments...

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Q:    Hey, Kraft Foods, product portfolio is superior to its peers. But their business model and stock price is lacking, as a shareholder and loyal customer, where do you stand on sacrificing on quality of product for earnings per share increases?

Jim:   
I have got to tell you something… I am not happy with the management at Kraft… I think that they have got a great stable of brands, they should have been doing better… everyone knows Kraft… everyone knows that Kraft has got a lot of inexpensive brands that should have done very, very well.. people talk about trade down, well, Kraft is the trade down company… but they have missed, missed, and missed… and I tell you something, I am very disappointed in them… I would own it here to a move say to $25... and I like to sell within the maelstrom… but that company is disappointing… I literally, literally, dislike that company more than any other food company… including Del Monte, including Conagra… I think that it is the worst of the bunch.

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Q:    I want to ask you specifically about Pepsico’s CEO, Miss Nooyi. What are your thoughts on how she is guiding the business?

Jim:   
I am a big believer in Miss Nooyi, she is the CEO… the stock has been bad… the stock has been a terrible performer… but remember, a lot of the drugs and the food stocks have been just abysmal… and hers is part of the morass… why do I think that hers is better… accelerating growth rates, taking out costs, I like the bottling move… and the stock is as inexpensive as I have ever seen it in my career as when I first recommended it in the 1980’s when I was a broker at Goldman Sachs… it has been terrible… so if you conclude that she has been terrible, I think that is a mistake… you have to look at the peer group… and the peer group has been awful… and she is hanging right in there with the rest of them… I endorse her leadership, and I think she will come out fine… or else I would not be recommending it on the show.

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Q:    I just started in the market, and I just wanted to know if like Burger King or fast food restaurants would be a good investment to make?

Jim:   
The Burger King quarter, and I actually had a little dispute back and forth with a Wall Street journal reporter… I will see a byline and I always click on it if I disagree with a guy… he was saying that listen Burger King could lead to a lot of problems away from Burger King, a lot of other restaurants… to me if I want to own a restaurant, now Darden was at a 52 week high on Friday, I would need a pullback… here is what I have been buying, and I know that this is controversial… I have been buying some YUM, it just had a very big run, that is a China play… I like Panera Bread, you know when I say that I have been buying, that is for
ActionAlertsPlus.com, my charitable trust… I like Panera, we know we have had Mr. Shake on a bunch of times… I think that Panera is great… I think that McDonald’s reports later this week, there is a problem with the dollar… but I believe in Mr. Skinner… so I think that all of those are preferable to Burger King.

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[verbatim recap]

[end of segment]


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