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Opening Segment #3: |
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'Off
The Charts' |
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Tuesday,
April 21, 2009 |
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Jim's
rating on
this stock |
STOCK
SYMBOL |
Closing
price that
day |
Full Company Name |
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PEP* |
49.35 |
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KO |
43.05 |
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Jim:
Believe it or not, I
am all about style…
my job is to figure
out what will be in
vogue at the Wall
Street fashion show…
keep you informed
about what the big
money managers are
thinking… and what
is influencing their
decision making, not
just mine… and that
is why we go off the
charts every
Tuesday… even though
I think that
technical analysis,
the whole process of
looking at a stocks
past action to
figure out where it
will go in the
future, the
pictorial… is kind
of a bunch of mumbo
jumbo, not to
mention chicken
gumbo… which is why
I am a
fundamentalist…
meaning that I like
to look at how the
underlying company
is doing, not that I
am buddy, buddy with
the Taliban… what
matters is that the
big boys take the
charts really
seriously… so that
means that we have
to too… it means
that we need to
study them… so that
we can stay nimble
and one step ahead…
we need to
understand what they
see… so today we are
looking at a chart
of
Coke (KO)…
with some help from
Rick Bensignor, he
is the chief market
strategist at
Execution Limited,
and my colleague who
writes at
TheStreet.com,
where I am chairman,
top writer, and of
course, four-time
ice skating
champion...
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See comments continued below...
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Tuesday,
April 21, 2009
(Cont'd from
above)...
Jim
(cont'd):
Bensignor remember,
is the one who
nailed
Bank of America (BAC)
on this show, back
at the beginning of
March… he gave us a
double from when he
featured his call on
this show, and it
was quite a move…
Bensignor thinks
that Coke is a buy
on any pullback,
this is really
interesting… let me
pull back to the low
$40’s of which is
pretty close to here
right… the stock was
down to $43, on a
very bad day… it was
off $1.25... now,
what does he see in
the chart… this is
really important…
this is what they
are all looking at
in the big offices…
they are all opening
their desk drawers
and they are looking
at the chart at
these big mutual
funds.
First, Coke’s 2009
lows are right up
against the 2006
low, the 2004 low,
and the 2003 low…
that makes the level
seem like a long
term low… one that
is firmly in place
so people feel
emboldened by the
fact that that is
where the stock has
held before… the
other thing is very,
well it is important
but it is a little
more complicated… it
is something that he
calls, and what
other people call
it, is the demark
models… know all you
need to know about
this method, is that
instead of helping
to identify trends,
like most chartists
do, the demark
models try and show
when a trend is
over… on a chart you
want to look for the
number 13 in red…
now, I mean I have
got them circled
right here… to show
you how they have
predicted big trend
changes in the past…
and you can see that
we have hit another
one… which is a buy…
a buy signal, as it
indicates to
technicians that the
sellers have become
exhausted… they do
not want to sell
down here anymore…
this is actually
only the third down
side exhaustion buy
signal in Coke’s
chart in the past 4
years… but the
earlier ones along
with the sell
signals, have all
been pretty spot on.
So, again, people
feel comfortable at
this level…
particularly because
look how many points
you could possibly
get if you are
right…
No Coke… Pepsi.. .is
anyone out there old
enough to remember
that one?…
[ Jim then showed a
clip of old Saturday
Night Live,
featuring the John
Belushi/Dan Ackroyd
skit, "No Coke,
Pepsi" ]
This is my
analysis... I like
Pepsi (PEP*)
like John Belushi… I
mean those guys were
good weren’t they…
you should know that
I once led a
pilgrimage to John
Belushi’s grave in
Martha’s Vineyard,
although, I was the
only one that was
sober and aware of
the surroundings at
the time.
Anyway, do I favor
Pepsi over Coke…
because while it
looks like both
companies will
benefit from the
potential coming
stabilization in
North American
beverages… Pepsi is
well ahead of the
curve, when it comes
to their own
destiny… Pepsi is
moving to buy the
remaining share of
its bottlers in
order to create a
leaner, more nimble
business model… that
will improve the
speed of decision
making,
strengthening its
ties to retailers,
and also I think
save $200m or .15
cents per share… I
think that it is
savvy.. in sharp
contrast to Coke,
which may have a
strained
relationship with
its main North
American bottler…
why buy Coke when it
really reported a
nothing quarter
today, that I think
could lead many
analysts to cut
numbers… when you
can buy Pepsi which
beat the streets
consensus by .04
cents when it
reported yesterday…
the company had the
misfortune of
reporting on a
terrible, horrible,
no good, very bad
day.. and the stock
is below where it
was when the good
news came out… and
it did not help that
Coke reported that
number that people
didn’t like… bad
news for those of us
like me, who already
have some Pepsi in
my charitable trust,
ActionAlertsPlus.com,
but good news for
anyone who wants to
buy the stock now,
and has just been
looking for the
right entry point…
and I think you have
got it.
Because Pepsi’s
business is much
less international
than Coke’s… Pepsi
is only 35%
international, Coke
is 80%… I am less
worried about the
vulnerability to a
strong dollar…
strong dollar is
worse for Coke than
Pepsi… Pepsi also
has room to grow
internationally…
Pepsi is going to
take advantage of
that fact investing
$3b in Mexico, $1b
in China, on top of
a recent acquisition
in Russia… it also
has the more
diversified business
mix… Frito-Lay makes
it the world leader
in snacks… Coke is
really beverages,
although they have
made some good
acquisitions… plus
Pepsi also has a
nifty restructuring
program, $350 to
$450 million a year
cost cuts… gives
them the flexibility
to create new
products… the money
will also be able to
be used to promote
and market old
products… both
companies are
benefiting from
lower commodity
costs… and if the
cola war has come to
an end and the North
American business
stabilizes… both
Coke and Pepsi will
win… but I think
Pepsi wins more…. I
think that it is in
a much better
position to
capitalize on any
improvement… and
much more control of
its own destiny… no
Coke…
Pepsi (PEP*).
The bottom line…
▼ ▼
▼ ▼
▼
The
Bottom Line!:
The technicals are
bullish on Coke… and
as while I do not
dislike Coke, I
can’t see why anyone
would own it when
they can own
Pepsi (PEP*)
instead… that is
right… John Belushi
has got it together…
no Coke… Pepsi.
Despite what the
charts say about
Coke (KO),
I think PEP’s the
company that could
quench your thirst.
The charts say that
Coke is a knock out
play… but I think
that Pepsi will be
the champion.
▼ ▼
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[verbatim
recap]
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Jim went on after
this segment to take
questions from
callers, and
responded with his
comments...
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Q:
Hey, Kraft Foods,
product portfolio is
superior to its
peers. But their
business model and
stock price is
lacking, as a
shareholder and
loyal customer,
where do you stand
on sacrificing on
quality of product
for earnings per
share increases?
Jim:
I have got to tell
you something… I am
not happy with the
management at Kraft…
I think that they
have got a great
stable of brands,
they should have
been doing better…
everyone knows
Kraft… everyone
knows that Kraft has
got a lot of
inexpensive brands
that should have
done very, very
well.. people talk
about trade down,
well, Kraft is the
trade down company…
but they have
missed, missed, and
missed… and I tell
you something, I am
very disappointed in
them… I would own it
here to a move say
to $25... and I like
to sell within the
maelstrom… but that
company is
disappointing… I
literally,
literally, dislike
that company more
than any other food
company… including
Del Monte, including
Conagra… I think
that it is the worst
of the bunch.
```````````````````````````````````````````````````````````````````````````````````
Q:
I want to ask you
specifically about
Pepsico’s CEO, Miss
Nooyi. What are your
thoughts on how she
is guiding the
business?
Jim:
I am a big believer
in Miss Nooyi, she
is the CEO… the
stock has been bad…
the stock has been a
terrible performer…
but remember, a lot
of the drugs and the
food stocks have
been just abysmal…
and hers is part of
the morass… why do I
think that hers is
better… accelerating
growth rates, taking
out costs, I like
the bottling move…
and the stock is as
inexpensive as I
have ever seen it in
my career as when I
first recommended it
in the 1980’s when I
was a broker at
Goldman Sachs… it
has been terrible…
so if you conclude
that she has been
terrible, I think
that is a mistake…
you have to look at
the peer group… and
the peer group has
been awful… and she
is hanging right in
there with the rest
of them… I endorse
her leadership, and
I think she will
come out fine… or
else I would not be
recommending it on
the show.
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Q:
I just started in
the market, and I
just wanted to know
if like Burger King
or fast food
restaurants would be
a good investment to
make?
Jim:
The Burger King
quarter, and I
actually had a
little dispute back
and forth with a
Wall Street journal
reporter… I will see
a byline and I
always click on it
if I disagree with a
guy… he was saying
that listen Burger
King could lead to a
lot of problems away
from Burger King, a
lot of other
restaurants… to me
if I want to own a
restaurant, now
Darden was at a 52
week high on Friday,
I would need a
pullback… here is
what I have been
buying, and I know
that this is
controversial… I
have been buying
some YUM, it just
had a very big run,
that is a China
play… I like Panera
Bread, you know when
I say that I have
been buying, that is
for
ActionAlertsPlus.com, my
charitable trust…
I like Panera, we
know we have had Mr.
Shake on a bunch of
times… I think that
Panera is great… I
think that
McDonald’s reports
later this week,
there is a problem
with the dollar… but
I believe in Mr.
Skinner… so I think
that all of those
are preferable to
Burger King.
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[verbatim
recap]
[end of segment]
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