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Opening Segment #3: |
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'For
Whom The
Bell Tolls’ |
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Wednesday,
April 22, 2009 |
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Jim's
rating on
this stock |
STOCK
SYMBOL |
Closing
price that
day |
Full Company Name |
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TOL |
19.74 |
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[Jim starts the
segment, showing an
old clip on the
housing market]
Jim:
Oh, pretty negative…
the financial
crisis… the garden
variety depression
that I think ended
in the beginning of
March, the recession
that we are still
experiencing… this
whole mess started
with housing… and
when we finally get
some stabilization
in the housing
market… I think
things will start to
get much better… but
first that market
has to bottom… last
year I predicted
that housing would
bottom by June 30th
of this year… it is
only 70 days from
now… and as that
call was mocked
endlessly, by pretty
much everything else
I was mocked
endlessly… it is now
looking more
plausible… the home
builders have scaled
back operations to
the point where we
are now building the
same amount of homes
that we had in this
country with 100
million fewer
people… that means
less inventory…
housing starts down
48%… housing permits
down 45%… areas
where prices have
fallen 40%, they are
seeing a bottom…
homes are being
bought… I think the
June 30th housing
bottom is spot on… I
want to hear from a
real expert though…
and I am not talking
about The New York
Times today which
talked about how the
real estate crash is
not over… right
there in the
business section of
The New York Times…
and this is all
based on anecdotal
evidence from two
foreclosure
auctions.
I want to talk to a
real expert… I am
talking about Bob
Toll, the Chairman,
CEO and co-founder
of Toll Brothers,
the leading luxury
home builder in
America… the last
time that I talked
to Toll on December
4th, I asked him
what he thought
about the bottom in
housing… and he said
that I hope housing
had bottomed, if it
ain’t, we are not to
far away, because
you only can go down
so far… I think that
we are much closer
than we were… Toll
Brothers, they
worked off
inventory… 91,000 Q2
of 2006... now only
37,000... is Toll
Brothers a way to
play a possible
turn… particularly
with the Federal tax
credit… and forget
that the housing
bottom is much, much
bigger than just the
home builders…
because housing is
the lynch pin of the
whole crisis… but I
do not want you to
take it from me
though… let’s hear
from Bob Toll, CEO,
Chairman, and
founder of Horeshum-based
Toll Brothers who
actually builds
them...
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See comments continued below...
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Wednesday,
April 22, 2009
(Cont'd from
above)...
Jim
(cont'd):
Jim:
Mr. Toll,
welcome back to Mad
Money, and welcome
back to The Ohio
State University.
Bob:
Nice to be hear.
Jim:
Alright, Bob, I
have to put it to
you… is the train
still coming at us…
is the light… any
chance that the
light at the end of
the tunnel is
actually the
beginning of
something good to
say about housing?
Bob:
I don’t want to
overstate it, but I
told you that I
would give you a
call when I saw
things differently.
And I definitely see
them as different
now. In the last 5
weeks, one of those
weeks was Passover,
Easter and Good
Friday so excluding
that week, in the
past 5 weeks we have
exceeded the
deposits, these are
not contracts, these
are the expression
of interest to buy a
home. A $1000
refundable deposits,
so in the last 5
weeks we have seen
those better than we
saw in the last
year. Now, last year
stunk but then again
it sure feels good
to be doing better
rather than worse.
Jim:
Now, this is the
first time that you
have done anything
other than tell me
that I am dead wrong
when I speak
optimistically. So
that is a big change
at the margin, Bob,
it really is.
Bob:
That is right.
Jim:
Okay, now tell
me something, is it
nationwide or is it
just some of these
areas that have
gotten so low that
it is just
ridiculous?
Bob:
No, it is pretty
much nationwide.
Except for a couple
of markets that are
still deader than
doornails and
probably will be for
another year or two.
I would say that
about 80% of the
country seems to be
on the way back.
Jim:
That is
unbelievable… I have
got to tell you,
that is unbelievable
vs. what we have
been talking about.
Why do I read pieces
like today’s Steven
Nichols report
saying that Toll
Brothers lowered its
sell.. the whole
thing is just about
euphoria, it is
about to go back
down again… 10
reasons why your
stock should be
dramatically lower…
given the fact that
you just told me
that things are
looking up… why
should the analysts
and the media stay
so negative about
housing?
Bob:
Well, they are
probably dealing
with reports that
are a couple of
weeks old, and those
reports reflect
expressions of
interest that were a
month before that.
Because first you go
and you visit, then
you put down a
deposit expressing
interest, then you
get an agreement of
sell and you and
your lawyer debate
their lawyer,
finally you sign up,
and then it gets
recorded and
permits. There is a
significant lag time
that could be the
reason, or maybe
they are just not
doing the job.
Jim:
But you have got
a big sale on, you
are telling me that
it is a nationwide
sale. I mean is this
the type of thing
that had you done it
a year ago, it would
not even matter?
Bob:
I think that is
right. The big sale
that we have got on
now, have replaced
the kitchen and back
expo that we had a
couple of weeks ago.
Had replaced the
special option VIP
sale that we had a
couple of weeks
before that, and so
on and so forth. We
have been running
specials now for
about 3 years.
Jim:
Well, Bob, one
of the things… I
talked to your
assistant a couple
of months ago, I was
trying to get your
old grading system…
I am at school, so I
am really conscience
of grading… and then
you stopped… you
stopped because
everything was an F…
there was not any
area in this country
that could pass… has
that changed?
Bob:
That is exactly
right. I called it
the F report, and it
got silly to be
grading F, FF, FFF,
so I said that we
went out of the
business. And for
the time being, I am
glad that I am out
of the business. I
will get back into
it when I can really
start to report A’s,
B’s, C’s. As I said
at the beginning of
the year….
Jim:
You are not
willing to give me a
mid-term grade that
is a little bit
higher than an F
right now, so I can
be able to proclaim
the housing bottom?
Bob:
Not just yet. I
think that we have
got a little longer.
But it sure feels
good to be above
where we were last
year for the first
time with these
initial interest
deposits.
Jim:
Bob Toll, I
thank you for coming
on our show, the
first time that you
have said something
positive since the
peak in housing.
Thank you very much.
Bob:
Thank you, take
it easy.
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Jim's
comments AFTER the
interview:
Guys, guys, I will
tell you… I said
June 30th… that will
be… man what hubris,
what hubris I have…
but I believe what
he just said… any
minute… I am taking
70 days, and I am
sticking by the
housing bottom… I
need you to know, he
has been unrelenting
negative… I speak to
him all the time, on
an off camera, I
have begging for him
to say something
positive… he just
gave it… housing
bottom in this
country on June
30th… and I say
hooray… thank you
very much Bob Toll.
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[verbatim
recap]
[end of segment]
Read Jim's next Segment
here
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