Opening Segment #3:
'For Whom The Bell Tolls’
Wednesday, April 22, 2009
 

Jim's
rating on
this stock

STOCK
SYMBOL

Closing
price that
day

Full Company Name

TOL

19.74

Toll Brothers (TOL)

[Jim starts the segment, showing an old clip on the housing market]

Jim:
     Oh, pretty negative… the financial crisis… the garden variety depression that I think ended in the beginning of March, the recession that we are still experiencing… this whole mess started with housing… and when we finally get some stabilization in the housing market… I think things will start to get much better… but first that market has to bottom… last year I predicted that housing would bottom by June 30th of this year… it is only 70 days from now… and as that call was mocked endlessly, by pretty much everything else I was mocked endlessly… it is now looking more plausible… the home builders have scaled back operations to the point where we are now building the same amount of homes that we had in this country with 100 million fewer people… that means less inventory… housing starts down 48%… housing permits down 45%… areas where prices have fallen 40%, they are seeing a bottom… homes are being bought… I think the June 30th housing bottom is spot on… I want to hear from a real expert though… and I am not talking about The New York Times today which talked about how the real estate crash is not over… right there in the business section of The New York Times… and this is all based on anecdotal evidence from two foreclosure auctions.

I want to talk to a real expert… I am talking about Bob Toll, the Chairman, CEO and co-founder of Toll Brothers, the leading luxury home builder in America… the last time that I talked to Toll on December 4th, I asked him what he thought about the bottom in housing… and he said that I hope housing had bottomed, if it ain’t, we are not to far away, because you only can go down so far… I think that we are much closer than we were… Toll Brothers, they worked off inventory… 91,000 Q2 of 2006... now only 37,000... is Toll Brothers a way to play a possible turn… particularly with the Federal tax credit… and forget that the housing bottom is much, much bigger than just the home builders… because housing is the lynch pin of the whole crisis… but I do not want you to take it from me though… let’s hear from Bob Toll, CEO, Chairman, and founder of Horeshum-based Toll Brothers who actually builds them...

Share

See comments continued below...     

 

Market Results today:

Dow:  - 82

Nasdaq:  + 2

S&P 500:  - 6

Previous Page

Next Page

See all of tonight's stocks mentioned
on Yahoo! Finance,
here...

 

Wednesday, April 22, 2009
(Cont'd from above)...

Jim (cont'd):

Jim:     Mr. Toll, welcome back to Mad Money, and welcome back to The Ohio State University.

Bob:   
Nice to be hear.

Jim:     Alright, Bob, I have to put it to you… is the train still coming at us… is the light… any chance that the light at the end of the tunnel is actually the beginning of something good to say about housing?

Bob:    I don’t want to overstate it, but I told you that I would give you a call when I saw things differently. And I definitely see them as different now. In the last 5 weeks, one of those weeks was Passover, Easter and Good Friday so excluding that week, in the past 5 weeks we have exceeded the deposits, these are not contracts, these are the expression of interest to buy a home. A $1000 refundable deposits, so in the last 5 weeks we have seen those better than we saw in the last year. Now, last year stunk but then again it sure feels good to be doing better rather than worse.

Jim:     Now, this is the first time that you have done anything other than tell me that I am dead wrong when I speak optimistically. So that is a big change at the margin, Bob, it really is.

Bob:    That is right.

Jim:     Okay, now tell me something, is it nationwide or is it just some of these areas that have gotten so low that it is just ridiculous?

Bob:    No, it is pretty much nationwide. Except for a couple of markets that are still deader than doornails and probably will be for another year or two. I would say that about 80% of the country seems to be on the way back.

Jim:     That is unbelievable… I have got to tell you, that is unbelievable vs. what we have been talking about. Why do I read pieces like today’s Steven Nichols report saying that Toll Brothers lowered its sell.. the whole thing is just about euphoria, it is about to go back down again… 10 reasons why your stock should be dramatically lower… given the fact that you just told me that things are looking up… why should the analysts and the media stay so negative about housing?

Bob:    Well, they are probably dealing with reports that are a couple of weeks old, and those reports reflect expressions of interest that were a month before that. Because first you go and you visit, then you put down a deposit expressing interest, then you get an agreement of sell and you and your lawyer debate their lawyer, finally you sign up, and then it gets recorded and permits. There is a significant lag time that could be the reason, or maybe they are just not doing the job.

Jim:     But you have got a big sale on, you are telling me that it is a nationwide sale. I mean is this the type of thing that had you done it a year ago, it would not even matter?

Bob:    I think that is right. The big sale that we have got on now, have replaced the kitchen and back expo that we had a couple of weeks ago. Had replaced the special option VIP sale that we had a couple of weeks before that, and so on and so forth. We have been running specials now for about 3 years.

Jim:     Well, Bob, one of the things… I talked to your assistant a couple of months ago, I was trying to get your old grading system… I am at school, so I am really conscience of grading… and then you stopped… you stopped because everything was an F… there was not any area in this country that could pass… has that changed?

Bob:    That is exactly right. I called it the F report, and it got silly to be grading F, FF, FFF, so I said that we went out of the business. And for the time being, I am glad that I am out of the business. I will get back into it when I can really start to report A’s, B’s, C’s. As I said at the beginning of the year….

Jim:     You are not willing to give me a mid-term grade that is a little bit higher than an F right now, so I can be able to proclaim the housing bottom?

Bob:    Not just yet. I think that we have got a little longer. But it sure feels good to be above where we were last year for the first time with these initial interest deposits.

Jim:     Bob Toll, I thank you for coming on our show, the first time that you have said something positive since the peak in housing. Thank you very much.

Bob:    Thank you, take it easy.

▼   ▼   ▼   ▼   ▼

Jim's comments AFTER the interview:      Guys, guys, I will tell you… I said June 30th… that will be… man what hubris, what hubris I have… but I believe what he just said… any minute… I am taking 70 days, and I am sticking by the housing bottom… I need you to know, he has been unrelenting negative… I speak to him all the time, on an off camera, I have begging for him to say something positive… he just gave it… housing bottom in this country on June 30th… and I say hooray… thank you very much Bob Toll.

▼   ▼   ▼   ▼   ▼

 

[verbatim recap]

[end of segment]


Read Jim's next Segment here
 

▼   ▼   ▼   ▼   ▼

 

Share

Read Jim's next Segment here  
    

 

Previous Page

Next Page

See all of tonight's stocks mentioned, on Yahoo! Finance, here...

Search for Jim's past comments about a specific stock.  Use ticker symbol or company name in quotes (e.g., GOOG or "Google")

© 2005-2009  MadMoneyRecap.com    About Us    Important Disclaimers      

Feedback here.