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Thursday,
April 23, 2009
(Cont'd from
above)...
Jim (cont'd):
My kids knew that
whisper was a game…
on Wall Street they
call it a
profession… the
whisper, it is a
crucial part of the
business… but rarely
a helpful part… it
is what people are
whispering to on
another about what
could happen…. what
could happen when a
company reports its
earnings… it is what
making some stocks
jump because the
whisper has been so
twisted, so wrong…
that the notion of
what finally happens
is totally different
from what people
thought they heard…
just like in the
game.
Alright, take
Conoco… no Conoco is
that gigantic oil
company, I call them
integrateds, which I
have told you
repeatedly that I
want you to buy…
why… because it is
totally hated and
the company was
supposed to screw up
badly when it
reported today… it
didn’t… as I told
subscribers to AAP,
it is the service
that lets you follow
my charitable trust,
how much money I
make for charity,
make the moves
before I do… the
analysts who hated
it, there are only 4
buys vs. 8 holds and
2 sells… the
analysts who told us
that Cop, as we call
it, would have a
crummy quarter… came
up empty handed… do
you know that these,
I would have called
them clowns before I
became a statesman,
these people had
people shorting a
4.7% yielder… that
reported double what
the analysts
expected… double…
no, this one no
longer deserves the
discount, you know
that it trades 25%
cheaper than Exxon…
and that is just
plain wrong… the
whisper was wrong…
you would have been
a whole lot better
simply by covering
your ears… like
Cramer fave the
Gollum, aka Schmegul…
I am not listening,
I am not listening…
there will be some
upgrades tomorrow
for this stock… most
definitely.
Or look at Black &
Decker… here is one
where the whispers
were saying that the
company would slash
the dividend… and
that they would
disappoint badly…
they did not do
either… so even
though it was not a
great quarter… and
they revealed that
they could review a
possible dividend
cut soon… the
whisperers who were
knocking the stock
heard a whole
different story… not
the house of pain…
but the house of
pleasure… now they
are trying… what are
the whisperers doing
do you think… well I
have some insight… I
have been there…
they are trying to
kill each other with
nail guns and
circular saws.
How about the fast
food platters…
stocks like Yum
Brands… you know we
like this stock on
this show, in fact I
like it so much
again I own it for
charity… here is a
stock where we heard
the whisper… meaning
that the Wall Street
Journal had put a
hit job on the
industry, and The
Heard on the Street
column earlier in
the week… after
Burger King
pre-reported a
whopper of a crummy
quarter and quickly
lost 20% of its
value… if you heard
the whisper, you
would have bet the
organic farm against
Yum… which is really
the silly name for
Cramer fave KFC,
okay I love the dark
meat… Taco Bell and
Pizza Hut… I told
you to be careful
about this kind of
misdirection story…
a story with no
accountability…
where the writer
will never have to
eat crow or wear the
post-it on his
forehead, I got the
fast foods wrong,
which is something
that I made people
do at my hedge fund…
so of course Yum
reported good
numbers… and the set
up, the whispers,
which implied a
decline in earnings
were dead wrong… the
result 4.5%
operating growth,
which isn’t all that
great… produced more
than a 7.6% up move
because the whisper
got it wrong… you
cannot buy into the
whisper… do not be a
stupid Schmegal… it
is a great way to
miss opportunities.
Case in point,
Caterpillar… it was
out about a big loss
coming, people were
whispering again
talking about a
dividend cut, and
chaos… and what did
we get from Cat…
initially we saw a
loss… it looked like
the whisper was
right… but oops, the
loss was actually a
restructuring charge
to pay off workers
the company had let
go… Cat not only
made money, it made
money in the worst
environment since
the Great
Depression… and upon
further review, the
whisper was
criminally wrong…
and the stock
quickly jumped 10%…
now you probably did
not know the whisper
if you are a home
gamer… but now you
at least know why a
stock goes up and it
shouldn’t… see if
you believed in the
whisper, if you
heard it or believed
in it, or if you
were obviously not a
part of it… you
looked as silly as
the kids did when
they finally retold
the story at the end
of the circle… the
difference, of
course, is that the
kids game cost you
nothing… but in this
game, believing in
the whisper…
believing in the
nonsense tips that
you made here cost
you dearly… maybe
next time the people
who spread the
whispers… or much
more important those
who listen to them
will think twice
before taking
action… we are
seeing a lot of
contrary action to
what you believe.
And the bottom line…
▼ ▼
▼ ▼
▼
 The Bottom Line!:
The whisper mislead
anybody who
listened… but it is
on the backs of the
bearish whisperers
that today’s bullish
action took place…
do not believe the
whisper if you do
have the misfortune
of hearing it… do
your own homework…
you are almost
always better off
betting against the
rumors and chatter
that you may or may
not here than
betting with them.
Don’t believe the
whispers you hear -
do
your homework
before making a
move. Alright,
you may not get the
whisper… but at
least now you know
why stocks that
report so-so numbers
often go up big… it
is because people
are listening to the
whisper… and it is
no more reliable
than the game… do
not forget, the
whisper does not
always speak the
truth… do your own
fact finding.
[verbatim recap]
▼ ▼
▼ ▼
▼
Jim went on after
this segment to take
questions from
callers, and
responded with his
comments...
```````````````````````````````````````````````````````````````````````````````````
Q:
I have been noticing
that on the one year
chart, the patterns
seem to be
narrowing. AT&T,
Kraft, Nordic
American Tanker for
example. Could this
be a sign that
things are
stabilizing?
Jim:
This is a subjective
question…because I
look at it and say
definitely… but
other people will
say something, you
know that is a
pattern that we have
seen, where things
are just going to
flat line and
nothing is going to
happen… but I think
that that is a
positive… what it
is, is that there is
not a lot of
volatility any more…
why do I think that
it is a positive…
because it freaks
out retail
investors, it freaks
out home gamers do
have… to buy a stock
at $27, at 3:00 to
get a report and
then see the stock
at $25 at the end of
the day… so I think
that it is good… it
brings in new
investors…
unfortunately these
ProUltra ETF’s that
do 2 and 3 times
damage are going to
drive out investors…
I am going to give
you an outrage about
that tomorrow.
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Q:
Since Microsoft did
not acquire Sun
Micro Systems, what
are your thoughts
about them possibly
acquiring EMC?
Jim:
I don’t think, you
know Microsoft is
actually not
involved with them,
that was IBM vs.
Oracle… Oracle got
it… Microsoft looks
to have reported a
good quarter after
the bell… Microsoft
is not going to make
that kind of
acquisition… let me
give you the wrap up
though, I think that
IBM is very good
because I like the
software business… I
think Oracle is very
good because I like
Larry Ellison… and I
know better to
comment on Microsoft
until I have heard
the conference call…
and I do not want to
wing anything…
because I am telling
you at home to read
the conference call…
so I can’t tell you
and opine until I
have had it.
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[verbatim
recap]
[end of segment]
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