Opening Segment #3:
'CEO Interview'

'Food, Glorious Food...'

Interview with
Ronald Shaich, CEO
Panera Bread
Wednesday, April 29, 2009
 

Jim's
rating on
this stock

STOCK
SYMBOL

Closing
price that
day

Full Company Name

PNRA

55.37

Panera Bread Co. (PNRA)

Jim:     Only on Wall Street could a company report a quarter with 39% earnings growth… and then have its stock take a 7.5 point hit… because the results merely matched the streets expectations… not overpowering them… and guidance for the future was at the low end of what Wall Street hoped for… that is the ridiculous story about what happened today in Panera Bread… a great company, in an industry that is en fuego… with a stock that got hammered for no good reason… unlike some other dining chains, Panera did not lower the bar… and manufacture an earnings beat… which, as dumb as it sounds, is something that turns off a lot of mutual fund investors who happen to love manufactured earnings surprises… but to view this quarter as disappointing… sorry… it is completely and utterly insane.

And even if there were reasons to dislike the quarter, that still does not mean that I think you should sell Panera… we have come out of our garden variety depression… as opposed to the garden variety salad that was late today from Panera… that was my staff’s fault, though, not Panera… we are seeing signs that a turn in the economy is coming… what… that could take us out of the current recession, that is fantastic news for the restaurants… even if swine flu turns out to be a legitimate near term problem… beyond that, we have the weaker restaurants going under… or just unable to get financing to expand… the only industry that has not got TARP money, that I follow… which is a great situation for Panera with its pristine balance sheet, and all of the other winners in the industry… because they now face less competition.

Who can stand up to these breadsticks… or this company’s brilliant innovation… the chili bowl made out of bread… this my friends is the single greatest thing that I eat when I go out… right here… even better than the unlimited… even better than Octoberfest… people should be buying Panera hand over fist, after the quarter that it reported last night… and the terrific positive first quarter personal consumption numbers that we have covered… up 2.2%, when the street expected a mere .9% increase in the first upturn in personal consumption since the second quarter of 2008... Panera is benefiting from cheap gas prices… it makes it less expensive for people to dine out… along with lower commodity costs… food and paper make up 36% of Panera’s total operating costs… bench mark paper price down 28% year over year… and on the food side, Panera has completely bought out wheat… its most volatile commodity for the entirety of 2009... locking in a wheat price down 36% vs. a year ago.

Whenever we look at a fast growing restaurant chain we always want to know how much room it has left to grow… has it saturated the country yet… or is there still space for more Panera’s… is it a regional chain that is going national…I love those stories… now, Panera really is not one… maybe that is what people are upset about, they think that there is no more room for expansion… because it is already in 41 states… but it could be something even better, a concept that works everywhere but still has a long way to go before it reaches saturation intrastate… as of the end of 2008, Panera has 1325 units… McDonald’s has 13000 units, 13918... Burger Kong, 7512 units… Brinker, think Chili’s, 188... and Darden, Cramer-fave, 1702.

How do I think Panera stacks up to the other fast growing chains like say Chipotle, which everyone loves… Panera does have more locations than Chipotle’s 837... but it is much less concentrated… just take California, Panera’s fourth largest market, 81 locations… 182 for Chipotle… Texas, Panera’s 10th largest market, 43 locations… Chipotle has 78... right now I think you are getting a fabulous opportunity… and I am sure that there will be some local yokel who will downgrade this thing tomorrow because the chart is broken… I think that you get a chance to buy the broken stock of a clearly unbroken company with Panera right now… it is a restaurant chain with turbo charged growth that has proven itself all across America… and still has room to grow…
But we like to do our homework on this show... And maybe I am all washed up… maybe I am no different than a piece of bread, that is just… well, lets just say sagging… I know lets hear from Panera’s terrific chairman, CEO, co-founder, Ron Shaich…

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Market Results today:

Dow:  + 168

Nasdaq:  + 38

S&P 500:  + 18

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Wednesday, April 29, 2009
(Cont'd from above)...

Jim (cont'd):


Jim:     
Mr. Shaich welcome back to Mad Money...

Ron:     Hey Jim how are things in New Jersey?

Jim:      Mr. Shaich, I think that your stock did not get a fair shake honestly today… and you have made or beaten consensus seven straight times… how come you did not get any credit for your number today?

Ron:     We met our guidance. We held our guidance for the rest of the year. The reality that this stock, Jim, has went up 50% last year. It has been up in the range 20% year to date. I think the measure for a company is not its stock and its change in a stock on a given day, a given week or month, but the performance that occurs over a long period of time. A year, 5 years, and ten.

Jim:      Which is why your stock has been on my list of things to buy… because all of the others have really faltered during this period when you have done great.

Ron:     Yeah, we have had a great run. We continue to have a great run. The fundamentals are good. This was a quarter up 39%.

Jim:      You know, I sit here and I think that one of the reasons that running a public company is such a bear… something that you do not want to do… is when you deliver spectacular numbers, and your stock goes down. It is very difficult to try to justify all of the hard work that you have put in.

Ron:     Hey listen, I have been CEO of a public company for 18 years. I am the Kyle Ripkin of earnings releases 72 straight earnings releases. It goes up, it goes down. The key for us is to deliver the goods and keep focused on the customer.

Jim:      There is not an Oriole fan in the room, so I think that you really lost us with that… but if you had said the Santana, okay anyway.

Ron:     Where I live, I live in Boston now.

Jim:      Alright now one thing when I parse out the quarter… your guidance for new unit average weekly sales for Q2, now full year are 36,000 to 38,000... even though this quarter new unit average weekly sales were 41,000... that sounds like you are being conservative to me.

Ron:     Well, I think our responsibility to the street low investors is to guide fairly and then do everything in our power to beat it. And I think that we had an extraordinarily strong series of openings in this first quarter, and I do not want anyone out there to assume that that is going to continue for the full year. So we guide to a very real number of 36,000 to 38,000, delivering a very high 40% cash on cash return on investment. But we do not want to pump the stock, what we want to do is deliver over the long term.

Jim:      Well I do think that that is perfect… I do know that there was chartists out there who felt that the chart had broken… we often, I do not say we ridicule chartists, but they often give us our best opportunities to get in stocks… that is what I felt happened today to you guys… how about this, competition changing, people catching on to your strategy? Maybe that is… no.

Ron:     No, we have had the same strategy for 15 years. We have not evolved it. We have not changed it. We have stayed focused on delivering against our vision of real food served by engaging people in environments that excite people. Rooted in this artisan bread. I will say that none of the things that really matter to a company change in a week or a month or a quarter. The reality is that the things that I am focused on are the things that will affect 2010, 2011, and 2012. And if we do our jobs right, we will continue to grow and to continue to develop. And if we do that, this stock will take care of itself.

Jim:      I totally agree… I see that you brought in a head of merchandising from Godiva, senior person from Borders… I remember speaking with the management of Starbucks, when they started getting… you know they put a couple of them in Barnes & Noble… the next thing that you know we have the next leg of expansion. Godiva, Borders, anything going?

Ron:     I do not think that you should expect to see a Panera buried in a Borders or in a Godiva since Godiva is maturely smaller. I think that the reality of Panera is that we have a great concept. This dog hunts. It works everywhere in this country. We have the highest average unit of volumes of anybody within, outside of casual dining. A very high return on investment. There is a lot of opportunity for Panera. Our most dense markets, places like the central mid-west of the United States, if you extrapolate out that. There is a lot of places in this country for Panera to grow. The question is, can we keep up with the demand?

Jim:      You know because you are from Livingston, I have got a couple of malls nearby… more vacancies than I have seen… including high end malls… opportunity to be in malls where I think that Au Bon Pain does pretty well.

Ron:     As you know I co-founded Au Bon Pain. The reality is, is that Panera does not want to be dependent on that center. One of our great successes is that we have not dependent on those malls. The reality is for us we are happy to do mall locations when we have external entrances, and we can draw our own customers.

Jim:      Oh right, you can’t… you are absolutely right, you do not have external entrances in the mall that I know… it is not worth doing. Ron Shaich you are terrific. Thank you for coming on the show.

Ron:     Jim, take care of yourself.

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Jim's comments AFTER the interview:      Look guys, you get an opportunity… look there will probably be some guy who downgrades Panera (PNRA) tomorrow… why… he is scared… he sees the stock as downs, he gets really frightened… he downgrades it… and that is your chance to catch some Panera.

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[verbatim recap]

[end of segment]


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