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Opening Segment #3: |
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'CEO
Interview'
'Food,
Glorious
Food...'
Interview
with
Ronald
Shaich, CEO
Panera Bread |
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Wednesday,
April 29, 2009 |
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Jim's
rating on
this stock |
STOCK
SYMBOL |
Closing
price that
day |
Full Company Name |
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PNRA |
55.37 |
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Jim:
Only on Wall Street
could a company
report a quarter
with 39% earnings
growth… and then
have its stock take
a 7.5 point hit…
because the results
merely matched the
streets
expectations… not
overpowering them…
and guidance for the
future was at the
low end of what Wall
Street hoped for…
that is the
ridiculous story
about what happened
today in Panera
Bread… a great
company, in an
industry that is
en fuego…
with a stock that
got hammered for no
good reason… unlike
some other dining
chains, Panera did
not lower the bar…
and manufacture an
earnings beat…
which, as dumb as it
sounds, is something
that turns off a lot
of mutual fund
investors who happen
to love manufactured
earnings surprises…
but to view this
quarter as
disappointing…
sorry… it is
completely and
utterly insane.
And even if there
were reasons to
dislike the quarter,
that still does not
mean that I think
you should sell
Panera… we have come
out of our garden
variety depression…
as opposed to the
garden variety salad
that was late today
from Panera… that
was my staff’s
fault, though, not
Panera… we are
seeing signs that a
turn in the economy
is coming… what…
that could take us
out of the current
recession, that is
fantastic news for
the restaurants…
even if swine flu
turns out to be a
legitimate near term
problem… beyond
that, we have the
weaker restaurants
going under… or just
unable to get
financing to expand…
the only industry
that has not got
TARP money, that I
follow… which is a
great situation for
Panera with its
pristine balance
sheet, and all of
the other winners in
the industry…
because they now
face less
competition.
Who can stand up to
these breadsticks…
or this company’s
brilliant
innovation… the
chili bowl made out
of bread… this my
friends is the
single greatest
thing that I eat
when I go out… right
here… even better
than the unlimited…
even better than
Octoberfest… people
should be buying
Panera hand over
fist, after the
quarter that it
reported last night…
and the terrific
positive first
quarter personal
consumption numbers
that we have
covered… up 2.2%,
when the street
expected a mere .9%
increase in the
first upturn in
personal consumption
since the second
quarter of 2008...
Panera is benefiting
from cheap gas
prices… it makes it
less expensive for
people to dine out…
along with lower
commodity costs…
food and paper make
up 36% of Panera’s
total operating
costs… bench mark
paper price down 28%
year over year… and
on the food side,
Panera has
completely bought
out wheat… its most
volatile commodity
for the entirety of
2009... locking in a
wheat price down 36%
vs. a year ago.
Whenever we look at
a fast growing
restaurant chain we
always want to know
how much room it has
left to grow… has it
saturated the
country yet… or is
there still space
for more Panera’s…
is it a regional
chain that is going
national…I love
those stories… now,
Panera really is not
one… maybe that is
what people are
upset about, they
think that there is
no more room for
expansion… because
it is already in 41
states… but it could
be something even
better, a concept
that works
everywhere but still
has a long way to go
before it reaches
saturation
intrastate… as of
the end of 2008,
Panera has 1325
units… McDonald’s
has 13000 units,
13918... Burger
Kong, 7512 units…
Brinker, think
Chili’s, 188... and
Darden, Cramer-fave,
1702.
How do I think
Panera stacks up to
the other fast
growing chains like
say Chipotle, which
everyone loves…
Panera does have
more locations than
Chipotle’s 837...
but it is much less
concentrated… just
take California,
Panera’s fourth
largest market, 81
locations… 182 for
Chipotle… Texas,
Panera’s 10th
largest market, 43
locations… Chipotle
has 78... right now
I think you are
getting a fabulous
opportunity… and I
am sure that there
will be some local
yokel who will
downgrade this thing
tomorrow because the
chart is broken… I
think that you get a
chance to buy the
broken stock of a
clearly unbroken
company with Panera
right now… it is a
restaurant chain
with turbo charged
growth that has
proven itself all
across America… and
still has room to
grow…
But we like to do
our homework on
this show...
And maybe I am all
washed up… maybe I
am no different than
a piece of bread,
that is just… well,
lets just say
sagging… I know lets
hear from Panera’s
terrific chairman,
CEO, co-founder, Ron
Shaich…
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See comments continued below...
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Wednesday,
April 29, 2009
(Cont'd from
above)...
Jim
(cont'd):
Jim:
Mr. Shaich
welcome back
to Mad
Money...
Ron:
Hey Jim
how are
things in
New Jersey?
Jim:
Mr. Shaich,
I think that
your stock
did not get
a fair shake
honestly
today… and
you have
made or
beaten
consensus
seven
straight
times… how
come you did
not get any
credit for
your number
today?
Ron:
We met
our
guidance. We
held our
guidance for
the rest of
the year.
The reality
that this
stock, Jim,
has went up
50% last
year. It has
been up in
the range
20% year to
date. I
think the
measure for
a company is
not its
stock and
its change
in a stock
on a given
day, a given
week or
month, but
the
performance
that occurs
over a long
period of
time. A
year, 5
years, and
ten.
Jim:
Which is why
your stock
has been on
my list of
things to
buy… because
all of the
others have
really
faltered
during this
period when
you have
done great.
Ron:
Yeah, we
have had a
great run.
We continue
to have a
great run.
The
fundamentals
are good.
This was a
quarter up
39%.
Jim:
You know, I
sit here and
I think that
one of the
reasons that
running a
public
company is
such a bear…
something
that you do
not want to
do… is when
you deliver
spectacular
numbers, and
your stock
goes down.
It is very
difficult to
try to
justify all
of the hard
work that
you have put
in.
Ron:
Hey
listen, I
have been
CEO of a
public
company for
18 years. I
am the Kyle
Ripkin of
earnings
releases 72
straight
earnings
releases. It
goes up, it
goes down.
The key for
us is to
deliver the
goods and
keep focused
on the
customer.
Jim:
There is not
an Oriole
fan in the
room, so I
think that
you really
lost us with
that… but if
you had said
the Santana,
okay anyway.
Ron:
Where I
live, I live
in Boston
now.
Jim:
Alright now
one thing
when I parse
out the
quarter…
your
guidance for
new unit
average
weekly sales
for Q2, now
full year
are 36,000
to 38,000...
even though
this quarter
new unit
average
weekly sales
were
41,000...
that sounds
like you are
being
conservative
to me.
Ron:
Well, I
think our
responsibility
to the
street low
investors is
to guide
fairly and
then do
everything
in our power
to beat it.
And I think
that we had
an
extraordinarily
strong
series of
openings in
this first
quarter, and
I do not
want anyone
out there to
assume that
that is
going to
continue for
the full
year. So we
guide to a
very real
number of
36,000 to
38,000,
delivering a
very high
40% cash on
cash return
on
investment.
But we do
not want to
pump the
stock, what
we want to
do is
deliver over
the long
term.
Jim:
Well I do
think that
that is
perfect… I
do know that
there was
chartists
out there
who felt
that the
chart had
broken… we
often, I do
not say we
ridicule
chartists,
but they
often give
us our best
opportunities
to get in
stocks… that
is what I
felt
happened
today to you
guys… how
about this,
competition
changing,
people
catching on
to your
strategy?
Maybe that
is… no.
Ron:
No, we
have had the
same
strategy for
15 years. We
have not
evolved it.
We have not
changed it.
We have
stayed
focused on
delivering
against our
vision of
real food
served by
engaging
people in
environments
that excite
people.
Rooted in
this artisan
bread. I
will say
that none of
the things
that really
matter to a
company
change in a
week or a
month or a
quarter. The
reality is
that the
things that
I am focused
on are the
things that
will affect
2010, 2011,
and 2012.
And if we do
our jobs
right, we
will
continue to
grow and to
continue to
develop. And
if we do
that, this
stock will
take care of
itself.
Jim:
I totally
agree… I see
that you
brought in a
head of
merchandising
from Godiva,
senior
person from
Borders… I
remember
speaking
with the
management
of
Starbucks,
when they
started
getting… you
know they
put a couple
of them in
Barnes &
Noble… the
next thing
that you
know we have
the next leg
of
expansion.
Godiva,
Borders,
anything
going?
Ron:
I do not
think that
you should
expect to
see a Panera
buried in a
Borders or
in a Godiva
since Godiva
is maturely
smaller. I
think that
the reality
of Panera is
that we have
a great
concept.
This dog
hunts. It
works
everywhere
in this
country. We
have the
highest
average unit
of volumes
of anybody
within,
outside of
casual
dining. A
very high
return on
investment.
There is a
lot of
opportunity
for Panera.
Our most
dense
markets,
places like
the central
mid-west of
the United
States, if
you
extrapolate
out that.
There is a
lot of
places in
this country
for Panera
to grow. The
question is,
can we keep
up with the
demand?
Jim:
You know
because you
are from
Livingston,
I have got a
couple of
malls
nearby… more
vacancies
than I have
seen…
including
high end
malls…
opportunity
to be in
malls where
I think that
Au Bon Pain
does pretty
well.
Ron:
As you
know I
co-founded
Au Bon Pain.
The reality
is, is that
Panera does
not want to
be dependent
on that
center. One
of our great
successes is
that we have
not
dependent on
those malls.
The reality
is for us we
are happy to
do mall
locations
when we have
external
entrances,
and we can
draw our own
customers.
Jim:
Oh right,
you can’t…
you are
absolutely
right, you
do not have
external
entrances in
the mall
that I know…
it is not
worth doing.
Ron Shaich
you are
terrific.
Thank you
for coming
on the show.
Ron:
Jim,
take care of
yourself.
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Jim's
comments AFTER the
interview:
Look guys, you get
an opportunity… look
there will probably
be some guy who
downgrades
Panera (PNRA)
tomorrow… why… he is
scared… he sees the
stock as downs, he
gets really
frightened… he
downgrades it… and
that is your chance
to catch some
Panera.
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[verbatim
recap]
[end of segment]
Read Jim's next Segment
here
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