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Opening Segment #3: |
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'Tappin’
Into Tech' |
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Monday,
May 4, 2009 |
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Jim's
rating on
this stock |
STOCK
SYMBOL |
Closing
price that
day |
Full Company Name |
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TKLC |
15.81 |
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Jim:
Has anyone started
to worry that the
seemingly
unstoppable rally in
tech… well, lets
just say might be a
little bit too hot…
feeling concerned
perhaps that the
gains of some of
these stocks are
going a bit too far…
I just witnessed
today,
Intel (INTC)
and
Advanced Micro Devices Inc.
(AMD)… yeah, AMD if
you can believe it…
up 5% and 11%
respectively… with
the strength
extending to the
rest of the semis…
should we be
anxious, nervous and
scared that tech
might be
overextending
itself… are the
mutual funds that
have been buying
tech stocks so
aggressively and
adding more fuel to
the fire in the
process making a big
mistake… is Newton’s
law of physics, what
goes up must come
down… being
disobeyed…no, no,
no, and no...
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See comments continued below...
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Monday,
May 4, 2009
(Cont'd from
above)...
Jim
(cont'd):
Not only do I think
that the tech rally
is here to stay… it
is actually getting
stronger… and
broader and more
powerful… this move
is being driven by
something that we
have not seen in
such a long time
that I wonder if
people even realize
what is staring them
right in the face…
it is a term that is
long since forgotten
around here… the
term is momentum.
The mutual fund
backers of tech are
chasing momentum
like there is no
tomorrow… normally
when stocks go
higher we like them
less because they
are more expensive..
but this tech rally
is signaling the
opposite.. the
higher tech soars,
the more attractive
the whole sector is
becoming to these
momentum chasing
mutual funds… and
they are getting
money in like it is
going out of style…
in this kind of
situation, strength
begets strength… as
they all get new
money in because
people love winning
funds and pour cash
into them… and now
that
the Nasdaq
is
up nearly 12% year
to date… that is a
whole lot strength…
a real signal
telling the bulls to
buy an even broader
array of tech stocks
than they have done
so far… the tech
rally ladies and
gentlemen is not
going away.
The question that
you should really be
asking, is which
techs stocks will
benefit from the
rallies next move
up, the next leg…
this move started
with strength in
high quality, high
profile names, like
the old four
horseman of tech…
Apple (AAPL),
Research
In Motion (RIMM),
Google, Inc. (GOOG), and
Amazon.com (AMZN)… all of which
we still like very
much even up here…
and it has spread
from there virally…
now that the rally
has gained steam I
think that the best
way to play it will
be with stocks that
are in many ways the
polar opposites of
the Apple's and
Google's of the
world… it is the
small, unloved,
forgotten and
relatively beaten
down tech names that
get cooking when we
get global economic
growth… as the
mutual funds pour
more and more money
into tech stocks…
and the tech
doubters are
gradually converted
to bulls… the little
know, little cared
about speculative
stocks will get
noticed… and it does
not take a lot of
attention to drive a
stock like that much
higher.
Now, I normally try
to avoid
recommending
speculative stocks
on any day other
than Friday, where
the weekend acts as
sort of a Taft
Hartley mandatory
cooling off period…
but this week I am
devoting every
single day to a
different tech spec…
none of which by the
way was ever
considered
speculative until
the tech bear market
reasserted itself
last year… in fact,
every one of the
stocks that you will
hear about this week
were considered main
stream companies for
years and years and
years… nothing
speculative about
them… now they are
seen as jokers,
outliers even… but I
think that they
could reclaim their
old status… that is
how much conviction
I have that these
tech losers, now,
will be later to
win… to paraphrase
stock guru Bob
Dylan...
What makes these
speculative techs so
special… why are
they deserving of a
week long series…
because back when we
were still in the
midst of our garden
variety recession,
well garden variety
depression… well
before the market
bottomed or anyone
was suggesting that
things might get
better… we made what
I call a field bet…
this is something
that I first reveal
in now in paperback
in
Real Money, how
to speculate like a
pro… a field bet of
beaten down tech
stocks… do you know
what they were… they
were AMD, Ciena,
Skyworks, and Tel
Labs… man were they
hated, and did they
turn out
magnificently… in
the first month
after recommending
all of them on
December 12, 2008...
I told you to take
something off of the
table… those down
and out speculative
tech stocks soared
an average of 22%.
Now, listen to this…
how did you do on
the basket if you
held it… after you
took a little
schnitzel… up 89%…
vs. the S&P index
which is up 3%… 89
vs. 3... I think
that you did
better.. most of
that is when tech
was still loathed
and we were in the
depression… imagine
how well speculative
techs could work now
that technology is
loved and the mutual
funds are supplying
massive buying fire
power… and the big
money is searching
for new names to
plow into… all week
we are going to give
them their buy list…
believe me they will
take it… as they are
tired of just
continually buying
RIMM, Apple, Google,
and Amazon… even as
I think that those
are not done being
taken up… now I have
to tell you that all
of the mutual funds
and hedge funds do
watch the show… and
they are going to
scribble this down…
lets get in ahead of
them… these stocks
still have to room
to run, the RIMM,
the Apple, the
Google, before they
get back to where
they once traded…
but the companies
that I am going to
be unveiling this
week are way, way
off their all time
highs.
My first pick for
our speculative tech
basket…
...write it down,
you are not going to
have heard of this
unless you are a
tech analyst…
...and the name is
Tekelec (TKLC)…
a billion dollar
Telco equipment
supplier that makes
equipment for
transmitting tech
messages.. which the
whole staff does
around here and it
is totally throwing
me off of their
game… it controls
the voice traffic on
wireless networks…
and the technology
that enables local
number portability…
where you get to
keep the same number
when you switch
carriers or change
your address… where
it has 35% market
share… where has
this name been…
where has this name
been… this is not a
Telco equipment
company in the vein
of Alcato, Lucent or
Nortel… dinosaurs…
specializing in
products that lets
just say are
antiques at this
point.
Tekelec is a play on
the expansion of
wireless networks
and the increased
use of the most
explosive phenomenon
known to man, text
messages… these are
growth areas… the
number of wireless
subscribers around
the world is
increasing by 11% a
year… so the major
carriers will have
to keep buying
Tekelec’s equipment
to expand their
networks in order to
serve more people…
in last quarter both
Verizon
(VZ) and
AT&T (T) saw
around 20% growth in
text messaging…
which did not even
exist a few years
ago… I did a drill
down over the
weekend, and I have
now come to the
conclusion that only
half of that text
messaging comes from
my two kids… who
would text me rather
than talk to me,
even if they were
sitting me for
dinner… especially
if they are sitting
with me for dinner.
Tekelec is
making the Telco
equipment that
carriers want to
buy… not the legacy
gear that they have
to buy in order to
maintain their older
networks… I can see
tech loving mutual
funds snap this
stuff up after they
listen to the show
tonight… in their
desire for tech in
the exposure to the
wireless business…
they cannot resist
Mad Money.
Plus Tekelec has an
India kicker…
apparently India now
has the fastest
growing wireless
market in the
world.. .and Tekelec
already has five of
the seven largest
Indian carriers as
customers… now in
the second half of
the year India is
set to introduce
local number
portability, to
allow wireless
subscribers to
change their
carriers and keep
their phone numbers…
remember, Tekelec
already dominates
the market for the
equipment that the
companies need to
make this possible…
and it has a solid
presence in India…
this could turn out
to be a major
opportunity for this
company… this is a
huge driver of their
business, I would
recommend Tekelec on
India alone… but
there are so many
other good reasons
to buy.
Tekelec may be a
speculative stock,
but listen… a lot of
speculative stocks
we think bad balance
sheet, this one has
a clean balance
sheet… no debt… $4
and cash… now keep
in mind it is only
at $15 and change
stock, so it is less
likely to blow up in
your face… and even
better the analysts
seem almost
completely
indifferent to this…
one of the eight who
cover it has a buy,
seven have holds…
man are they ever
missing out… they
have room to
upgrade… alright, be
careful here the
company reports
earnings on
Thursday… and I do
not want you to try
to gain the
earnings, that is a
suckers game if
there ever was one…
so wait until after
it reports the
quarter to buy… I
know that some of
you will not be able
to resists, some of
you will pay $16, or
$17... and then you
will come after me
with pitchforks…
anyway, just take it
easy.
Bottom line…
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The
Bottom Line!:
I think the next leg
of the tech rally
belongs to the
underexposed
speculative
companies like
Tekelec… the first
of five unloved tech
companies that have
a ton of room to
romp over the rest
of the quarter… as
the money flows into
growth funds hungry
for new names...
Holy cow… the next
leg of this tech
rally, we have got
the picks all week
cause the times they
are changing… pick
number one, remember
it reports Thursday
so you do not need
to get ahead of it…
I am trying to give
you the whole
panoply… is
Tekelec (TKLC)...
My first tech spec
of the week is TKLC,
but wait until after
it reports on
Thursday if you want
in...
Holy cow… the next
leg of this tech
rally, we have got
the picks all week
cause the times they
are changing… pick
number one, remember
it reports Thursday
so you do not need
to get ahead of it…
I am trying to give
you the whole
panoply… is Tekelec.
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[verbatim
recap]
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Jim went on after
this segment to take
questions from
callers, and
responded with his
comments...
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Q:
Sprint Nextel Corp.
(S), for a
company who is
losing an awful lot
of subscribers, it
seems like they have
an awful lot on
their plate with the
Pre, the Kindle and
now talks with
Ericsson. Do you
think this might be
a play at around $5?
Jim:
I have been saying
since this stock was
between $3 and $4
that this stock is
the one to buy, I
did it for
speculative Friday…
I remain committed
that Sprint (S) is
going to either
survive on its own
and prosper… or get
a bid and prosper… I
think S makes a huge
amount of sense to
own here.
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[verbatim
recap]
[end of segment]
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