Opening Segment #3:
'Tappin’ Into Tech'
Monday, May 4, 2009
 

Jim's
rating on
this stock

STOCK
SYMBOL

Closing
price that
day

Full Company Name

TKLC

15.81

Tekelec (TKLC)

Jim:     Has anyone started to worry that the seemingly unstoppable rally in tech… well, lets just say might be a little bit too hot… feeling concerned perhaps that the gains of some of these stocks are going a bit too far… I just witnessed today, Intel (INTC) and Advanced Micro Devices Inc. (AMD)… yeah, AMD if you can believe it… up 5% and 11% respectively… with the strength extending to the rest of the semis… should we be anxious, nervous and scared that tech might be overextending itself… are the mutual funds that have been buying tech stocks so aggressively and adding more fuel to the fire in the process making a big mistake… is Newton’s law of physics, what goes up must come down… being disobeyed…no, no, no, and no...

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Market Results today:

Dow:  + 214

Nasdaq:  + 44

S&P 500:  + 29

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Monday, May 4, 2009
(Cont'd from above)...

Jim (cont'd):


Not only do I think that the tech rally is here to stay… it is actually getting stronger… and broader and more powerful… this move is being driven by something that we have not seen in such a long time that I wonder if people even realize what is staring them right in the face… it is a term that is long since forgotten around here… the term is momentum.

The mutual fund backers of tech are chasing momentum like there is no tomorrow… normally when stocks go higher we like them less because they are more expensive.. but this tech rally is signaling the opposite.. the higher tech soars, the more attractive the whole sector is becoming to these momentum chasing mutual funds… and they are getting money in like it is going out of style… in this kind of situation, strength begets strength… as they all get new money in because people love winning funds and pour cash into them… and now that
the Nasdaq is up nearly 12% year to date… that is a whole lot strength… a real signal telling the bulls to buy an even broader array of tech stocks than they have done so far… the tech rally ladies and gentlemen is not going away.

The question that you should really be asking, is which techs stocks will benefit from the rallies next move up, the next leg… this move started with strength in high quality, high profile names, like the old four horseman of tech…
Apple (AAPL), Research In Motion (RIMM), Google, Inc. (GOOG), and Amazon.com (AMZN)… all of which we still like very much even up here… and it has spread from there virally… now that the rally has gained steam I think that the best way to play it will be with stocks that are in many ways the polar opposites of the Apple's and Google's of the world… it is the small, unloved, forgotten and relatively beaten down tech names that get cooking when we get global economic growth… as the mutual funds pour more and more money into tech stocks… and the tech doubters are gradually converted to bulls… the little know, little cared about speculative stocks will get noticed… and it does not take a lot of attention to drive a stock like that much higher.

Now, I normally try to avoid recommending speculative stocks on any day other than Friday, where the weekend acts as sort of a Taft Hartley mandatory cooling off period… but this week I am devoting every single day to a different tech spec… none of which by the way was ever considered speculative until the tech bear market reasserted itself last year… in fact, every one of the stocks that you will hear about this week were considered main stream companies for years and years and years… nothing speculative about them… now they are seen as jokers, outliers even… but I think that they could reclaim their old status… that is how much conviction I have that these tech losers, now, will be later to win… to paraphrase stock guru Bob Dylan...

What makes these speculative techs so special… why are they deserving of a week long series… because back when we were still in the midst of our garden variety recession, well garden variety depression… well before the market bottomed or anyone was suggesting that things might get better… we made what I call a field bet… this is something that I first reveal in now in paperback in
Real Money, how to speculate like a pro… a field bet of beaten down tech stocks… do you know what they were… they were AMD, Ciena, Skyworks, and Tel Labs… man were they hated, and did they turn out magnificently… in the first month after recommending all of them on December 12, 2008... I told you to take something off of the table… those down and out speculative tech stocks soared an average of 22%.

Now, listen to this… how did you do on the basket if you held it… after you took a little schnitzel… up 89%… vs. the S&P index which is up 3%… 89 vs. 3... I think that you did better.. most of that is when tech was still loathed and we were in the depression… imagine how well speculative techs could work now that technology is loved and the mutual funds are supplying massive buying fire power… and the big money is searching for new names to plow into… all week we are going to give them their buy list… believe me they will take it… as they are tired of just continually buying RIMM, Apple, Google, and Amazon… even as I think that those are not done being taken up… now I have to tell you that all of the mutual funds and hedge funds do watch the show… and they are going to scribble this down… lets get in ahead of them… these stocks still have to room to run, the RIMM, the Apple, the Google, before they get back to where they once traded… but the companies that I am going to be unveiling this week are way, way off their all time highs.

My first pick for our speculative tech basket…

...write it down, you are not going to have heard of this unless you are a tech analyst…

...and the name is
Tekelec (TKLC)… a billion dollar Telco equipment supplier that makes equipment for transmitting tech messages.. which the whole staff does around here and it is totally throwing me off of their game… it controls the voice traffic on wireless networks… and the technology that enables local number portability… where you get to keep the same number when you switch carriers or change your address… where it has 35% market share… where has this name been… where has this name been… this is not a Telco equipment company in the vein of Alcato, Lucent or Nortel… dinosaurs… specializing in products that lets just say are antiques at this point.

Tekelec is a play on the expansion of wireless networks and the increased use of the most explosive phenomenon known to man, text messages… these are growth areas… the number of wireless subscribers around the world is increasing by 11% a year… so the major carriers will have to keep buying Tekelec’s equipment to expand their networks in order to serve more people… in last quarter both
Verizon (VZ) and AT&T (T) saw around 20% growth in text messaging… which did not even exist a few years ago… I did a drill down over the weekend, and I have now come to the conclusion that only half of that text messaging comes from my two kids… who would text me rather than talk to me, even if they were sitting me for dinner… especially if they are sitting with me for dinner.

Tekelec is making the Telco equipment that carriers want to buy… not the legacy gear that they have to buy in order to maintain their older networks… I can see tech loving mutual funds snap this stuff up after they listen to the show tonight… in their desire for tech in the exposure to the wireless business… they cannot resist Mad Money.

Plus Tekelec has an India kicker… apparently India now has the fastest growing wireless market in the world.. .and Tekelec already has five of the seven largest Indian carriers as customers… now in the second half of the year India is set to introduce local number portability, to allow wireless subscribers to change their carriers and keep their phone numbers… remember, Tekelec already dominates the market for the equipment that the companies need to make this possible… and it has a solid presence in India… this could turn out to be a major opportunity for this company… this is a huge driver of their business, I would recommend Tekelec on India alone… but there are so many other good reasons to buy.

Tekelec may be a speculative stock, but listen… a lot of speculative stocks we think bad balance sheet, this one has a clean balance sheet… no debt… $4 and cash… now keep in mind it is only at $15 and change stock, so it is less likely to blow up in your face… and even better the analysts seem almost completely indifferent to this… one of the eight who cover it has a buy, seven have holds… man are they ever missing out… they have room to upgrade… alright, be careful here the company reports earnings on Thursday… and I do not want you to try to gain the earnings, that is a suckers game if there ever was one… so wait until after it reports the quarter to buy… I know that some of you will not be able to resists, some of you will pay $16, or $17... and then you will come after me with pitchforks… anyway, just take it easy.

Bottom line…

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The Bottom Line!:      I think the next leg of the tech rally belongs to the underexposed speculative companies like Tekelec… the first of five unloved tech companies that have a ton of room to romp over the rest of the quarter… as the money flows into growth funds hungry for new names... Holy cow… the next leg of this tech rally, we have got the picks all week cause the times they are changing… pick number one, remember it reports Thursday so you do not need to get ahead of it… I am trying to give you the whole panoply… is Tekelec (TKLC)...   My first tech spec of the week is TKLC, but wait until after it reports on Thursday if you want in...   Holy cow… the next leg of this tech rally, we have got the picks all week cause the times they are changing… pick number one, remember it reports Thursday so you do not need to get ahead of it… I am trying to give you the whole panoply… is Tekelec.

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[verbatim recap]

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Jim went on after this segment to take questions from callers, and responded with his comments...

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Q:   
Sprint Nextel Corp. (S), for a company who is losing an awful lot of subscribers, it seems like they have an awful lot on their plate with the Pre, the Kindle and now talks with Ericsson. Do you think this might be a play at around $5?

Jim:   
I have been saying since this stock was between $3 and $4 that this stock is the one to buy, I did it for speculative Friday… I remain committed that Sprint (S) is going to either survive on its own and prosper… or get a bid and prosper… I think S makes a huge amount of sense to own here.

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[verbatim recap]

[end of segment]


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