Opening Segment #2:

'CEO Interview'

Interview with
Peter McCausland, CEO
Airgas Products

Wednesday, May 6, 2009

Jim's
rating on
this stock

STOCK
SYMBOL

Closing
price that
day

Full Company Name

ARG

42.97

Airgas Inc. (ARG)


Jim:      Back in my hedge fund, when anybody ever made a mistake, including me, I would force them to wear a Post-It with the offending stock symbol on their forehead for the rest of the day, usually while I screamed at them, throwing whatever piece of office equipment that came into hand... because I face and believe in national humiliation when I get something wrong...

Now it's time for me to stand up and face the music, right here and right now...

I got
Airgas Inc. (ARG) wrong... totally wrong... not once, but twice... two Post-Its... One for each colossal and colossally-stupid call...

ARG... medical gases, specialty gases, industrial gases, along with some gas-related equipment... and some hard goods like power tools and welding equipment... is a company that I've liked for a long time. It's a stock that I had liked for years... right up until I went negative on October 24th of last year, after our eight interview with Peter McCausland, the CEO of Airgas, and a good friend to the show...

At the time, ARG was down 46% from where I had recommended it on May 8th. That was my first mistake, and that was a terrible call. I couldn't take the pain, so then I made mistake #2... saying Airgas had a broken stock that wasn't likely to get better soon. ARG was at $33 then. Now it's at $42. A 27% gain that I helped you miss...

And the company just reported a better-than-expected quarter yesterday that I wasn't looking for. Airgas earned 68 cents a share... that was a 3-cent beat to the estimates. Even though sales were down 9%, pricing's been fairly solid, allowing the company's gross margins to increase about 100 basis points... 1 percentage point... over last year... despite the fact that demand was down pretty much across the board...

Plus, thanks to Airgas' successful efforts to manage costs, its free cash flow was up 52% compared to the previous year. These are incredible stats that I did not see coming...

The company's guidance for the next quarter, and for the whole year, came short of what the Street was looking for, but Airgas has a history of setting low expectations and then blowing them away... when the time comes.

It's been shifting its product mix toward high-margin merchandise like gas. Margins could go even higher...

I blew it with Airgas twice so far... telling you it was a buy right before a major decline, and then going negative before a big move higher.

This was no broken stock... but that's all now in the past. The question now is, is it too late to buy ARG here, up 17 points from its low... but it's still down 22 from its high...

So let's get some help with our
homework from someone who knows this stock a lot better than I do... Peter McCausland, the CEO of Airgas Inc. (ARG)...

Share

Continued below...  

 

Market Results today:

Dow:  + 101

Nasdaq:  + 5

S&P 500:  + 15

Previous Page

Next Page

See all of tonight's stocks mentioned
on Yahoo! Finance,
here...

Wednesday, May 6, 2009
(Cont'd from above)...

Jim (cont'd):   


Jim:      Mr. McCausland, welcome back to Mad Money...

Peter:    Thank you, Jim, and Boo-Yah... This is my 9th visit... can you believe it?...

Jim:      I believe it, because you've made money consistently for people, and my bad because I was more concerned with inhaling helium, and sounding like a total clown, rather than being a clown by telling people to stay away from your stock the last time... How are you able to make so much money in what is considered to be the worst downturn since the Great Depression?...

Peter:    Well, I think we... of course, our earnings were down for the quarter, compared to last year... but we had a record year, and I think we reacted very, very quickly... we've taken $45 million of cost out... we have a very diverse customer base... we have a very steady stream of rental income on cylinders and tanks, and that holds up very well in a recession, and also, when business turns down, working capital shrinks, capex (i.e., their capital expenditures) shrinks, and we generate a tremendous amount of free cash flow...

Jim:      But I would have thought, and was worried... you made a series of acquisitions... 14 I believe... where I thought that, when things got bad, you might have looked like you overpaid. You didn't overpay did you?...

Peter:    Well, no... And we're pretty disciplined when it comes to acquisitions. We've made more than 400 of them in our history, and consider it a core competency. We are very concerned about overpaying, and we're pretty strict about... you know, when other people are bidding against us, we maintain our discipline.

Jim:      Now, I need to get... Just think outside of your company, but industrial America, I am surprised, reported... we just finished a reporting period... pretty amazing numbers. You mentioned that one of things you saw was you acted fast. Is this different from other turndowns? And we spoke about other turndowns... where I think that somebody might have thought that your company would lose money in this environment, not make money...

Peter:    Well, I think we're way behind the "losing money" stage of our growth, and I think though that this downturn is definitely different, because we have had a severe credit contraction. So what we've seen in addition to the normal downturn in business, focused mainly in manufacturing, but also across the board... we've seen this tremendous tightening of the purse strings by every kind of business, be it a hospital or a doctor's office or a manufacturer.

Jim:      When I read over your conference call, something is different from what some of my other companies are seeing... Other companies are seeing a very good April. You talk in the conference call, saying that the fourth-quarter trend of low sales volume has continued in April, with few signs of near term recovery. A lot of people say that April was a strong month... we've got some good employment data even, that I expect to see for April... You're just not seeing a pickup?

Peter:    Not really, and most of our business is coincident with the economy, and we missed... we had to revise our guidance a few months ago, and we don't like to do that... and, until we see more evidence of a sustained pickup, we're not going to be shouting from the highest hills. And, you know, a lot of companies have been talking about a pickup in April, but they also have said they're not giving out any guidance. We've given out guidance for the full year next year, so we need to be cautious.

Jim:      Right. Now one of the things that I thought was interesting that you said was that people are hunkering down, and they don't want to sell, but you're actually still in the acquisition mode?

Peter:    We're definitely in the acquisition mode. We have plenty of availability under our lines of credit to make acquisitions, but you know, when times are tough, a lot of the acquisition opportunities dry up. These are good businesses, in our core that is, the industrial gas business... they generate good cash flow... and usually, people can wait for a recovery, and sell off at higher numbers. So the activity level is somewhat depressed, but we're still pursuing a couple of dozen acquisitions... and we always say we're going to acquire $150 million a year, and we use that as a placeholder... You know, for the last four years, our average has been two or three times that. I don't really know what we'll acquire this year, but I wouldn't be surprised if we ended up with 10 acquisitions with $100 million, or maybe $200 million, depending on what they are.

Jim:      That will give you some growth. Peter McCausland, I should have listened to you... you were on the show the last time. You said that a lot of people didn't understand your business model, that a lot of people didn't understand that you were able to make more money than people thought. I doubted you. I was wrong. Good job on the quarter, sir.

Peter:    Thank you Jim... appreciate it.

Jim:      Peter McCausland, chairman and CEO of
Airgas Inc. (ARG)...

▼   ▼   ▼   ▼   ▼

The Bottom Line!:      The man was on eight times before this. Why did I doubt him? I get concerned and I get nervous too. He taught me to steel myself on this one, and did I listen? No. I'm not going to make that same mistake. He's got a game plan. I think he's sticking with it. I'm sticking with him.

 

[verbatim recap]

[end of segment]


Read Jim's next Segment here
 
    

Share

Read Jim's next Segment here  
    

 

Previous Page

Next Page

See all of tonight's stocks mentioned, on Yahoo! Finance, here...

 

Search for Jim's past comments about a specific stock.  Use ticker symbol or company name in quotes (e.g., GOOG or "Google")
 
© 2005-2009  MadMoneyRecap.com    About Us    Important Disclaimers      

Feedback here.