|
Opening Segment #3: |
 |
|
'Tech
Beat' |
 |
|
Wednesday,
May 6, 2009 |
|
|
 |
 |
|
|
|
|
|
Jim's
rating on
this stock |
STOCK
SYMBOL |
Closing
price that
day |
Full Company Name |
|
 |
CDNS |
5.60 |
Cadence
Design
Systems Inc.
(CDNS)
|
|
|
Jim:
You don't always
have to put your
money on the
"generals"... the
top stocks that
provide leadership
in a sector, or even
the whole market...
Sometimes, you can
do better by
investing in the
stocks that have
been busted down to
"private"... I'm
talking the ones
that have been
"dishonorably
discharged"... and
that's the
opportunity that I
see in tech right
now.
We're speculating in
some of the beaten
down stocks of some
of the most
tarnished companies
that could give you
bigger wins than you
might get, at this
point, from the
best-of-breed tech
generals... and, of
course, I'm talking
about stocks that I
still like...
Apple (AAPL),
Research
In Motion (RIMM),
an unbelievable
stock...
Amazon.com (AMZN),
don't care, big
kindle, small
kindle, kindle... I
like the business,
and Google-iscious...
Google, Inc. (GOOG).
Yes. I also like
Cisco
(CSCO*),
which reported after
the bell, and I've
been buying
consistently for
ActionAlertsPlus.com, my
charitable trust,
where I'm beating
the pants off the
market... However,
there'll be some
questions about the
quarter in the
research...
Now, these days,
there is just so
much mutual fund
money flowing into
tech stocks, because
the funds that have
owned tech for the
rally are up huge...
People like to
invest their money
in funds that are
doing well... fact
of life... can't
fight that... we
stipulated on the
show... So they plow
even more cash into
tech, and then other
mutual funds have to
buy these too, or
else they'll get
left in the dust!
And, now that tech's
already had a big
move, these guys are
grasping for new
ideas... they're
listening to the
show... I talked a
lot... I mean, the
last two days,
they've been shocked
about the ones...
they are going to
get their pants
knocked off on this
one!...
|
|
See comments continued below...
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Wednesday,
May 6, 2009
(Cont'd from
above)...
Jim
(cont'd):
Yes... I know this,
because I have been
in the game for over
30 years, and I have
seen this pattern
over and over again
and, as your
investing coach, I
am teaching you how
to find the "best of
the worst" in
tech... the lowly
names that are still
worth buying as
speculation...
You know that, every
day this week, I've
been adding another
tech stock name... a
tech spec... so
that, by Friday
night, you'll have
five... enough to
put them all in a
basket... which we
like to use when
we're playing with
dangerous
speculative names,
because it spreads
out the risk... a
couple of them could
implode... and, as
long as we catch one
big win, you'll
still have a hefty
gain like we did at
the end of the year.
Remember that big
basket that we put
together?... Boom!
Big money.
Alright... Now we've
already had a big
win in the original
tech spec... which
was TSM. I
recommended that on
March 11th, at
$8.66. It is now up
27%. So I got your
attention, right?...
Tonight's tech
spec?...
I cannot believe I
am about to praise
this Ursa Canine,
"are you ready,
skee-daddy" name...
Cadence Design
Systems Inc. (CDNS)!...
Cadence designs
systems which I have
not owned since I
had my hedge fund,
probably in 1998...
It's been years in
purgatory, and we're
changing that right
now!
Alright... this is a
$5 stock... It's in
the business of
electronic design
automation... EDA...
that could be the
son of Taiwan
Semiconductor or, at
least, a cousin once
removed...
Basically, Cadence
makes the hardware
and software tools
that help
semiconductor
companies design and
manufacture new
products... so most
of its sales are
largely tied to
R&D... research and
development spending
for the chipmakers.
Don't think of
Cadence as a
semiconductor
equipment, though...
You know I'm not
that crazy about
those... I want you
to think about it as
a play on our love
and need for better
and better gadgets,
which we know is
coming right out of
China... where they
are gadget hungry...
because you get a
coupon to buy a lot
of gadgets there...
Now that's my kind
of plan...
As devices like
cellphones become
more complex, and
take on more
functions, the
chipmakers have to
create new
components that are
smaller, better and
faster. Cadence
sells them the tools
they need to design
these components.
Business is sticky,
without a whole lot
of competition.
99.9% of electronic
design contracts
that are renewed go
to the company that
already had the
contract. Cadence
isn't in danger of
seeing its customers
get picked off by
another company...
That's one thing you
don't have to worry
about, if you own
the stock...
Alright, if that's
so great, what the
heck is it doing
down here?... Why?
Well there's a
reason why Cadence
is speculative, and
it's incredible...
No company ever
wants its stock to
go to $5, and you
don't trade in the
single digits for
doing well...
Yeah... something's
wrong, right? You
get there by
screwing up... I've
got to tell you
something... Cadence
is a classic example
of the screwup...
At the beginning of
2008, Cadence was at
$16.93... $16.93 at
the beginning of
2008, and then it
had fallen to
$3.66... It's back
nicely from the
bottom but, to me,
it still has a long
way to go...
Mutual fund buyers
don't care about how
much stocks have
rebounded off the
bottom... they care
about how far
they've fallen. To
them, Cadence isn't
up huge from its
low, it's down
gigantically from
almost $20 bucks.
That's what
intrigues them,
pulls them in...
and, now that
they've watched this
segment, believe me,
they'll be pulling
the books... and
say, look at this
Cadence... Cramer's
right...
Anyway, sometimes
you get a broken
stock that's
attached to a
company that's still
in tact and
undamaged. That
wasn't Cadence...
Last year, the
company was a
mess...
Now, in 2007,
Cadence was a
profitable company
with operating
margins of 30.5%. In
2008, it managed to
become a money
loser, with an
operating margin of
-3%. I mean, these
are all bad...
everything I'm about
to tell you is
bad... That's not
the least of it...
Cadence's management
team... fired!... It
fell behind on its
SEC filings, thanks
to a probe over
revenue
recognition... a
delisting notice
from NASDAQ... a
result of its
inability to file a
10-Q for the
September quarter...
It gets worse! In
July, it changed the
way it accounts for
its revenues...
Previously, it
booked 50% of
product fees up
front... and 50%
being recognized
rabidly over the
term of the
contract... but they
switched to book
just 10% up front,
and 90% over the
term of the
contract. That's how
it should have been.
All they did was
change the way they
handled the books,
but this made the
numbers look a whole
lot worse than they
really were. Cadence
changed from one
system to another...
which helped hammer
the stock. You'd
think the investors
- especially the
pros - wouldn't
care, since
everything is the
exact same numbers
that they reported,
but that would be
wrong. They mostly
just look at the
headline numbers,
which make it look
like business was
down huge.
Now, though, Cadence
has started to turn
things around, and
no one's paying
attention... Pay
attention! The
expectations are
still incredibly
low. When it
reported its first
quarter on April
29th, Cadence beat
the Street's
consensus by 2
cents. I couldn't
believe it could do
it.
Even though it's
still losing money,
there are signs of a
turnaround in
execution. The
mid-point of
management's
guidance for the
June quarter implies
that its revenues
and operating margin
will increase from
the previous
quarter... Great
news. Next quarter,
the company laps
that change in
revenue
recognition... Its
results will be
apples-to-apples...
Cadence gets a $150
million operating
expense benefit in
2009, and cut its
workforce by 12%...
bad for workers,
good for
shareholders...
You don't buy a
stock like this
unless I've got
something even more
"Billy May"
style!... You won't
regret this!...
Anyway, you've got
downside
protection...
Cadence has $2.20 of
cash and
equivalent...
Remember, this is a
fiver (i.e., a $5
stock)... so it
would be tough for
the stock to fall
more than $3 bucks
if it doesn't work.
There've also been
some insider buying
from the chairman...
hey, like maybe he
knows something,
right?... who's also
the
recently-appointed
CEO... The CFO
bought $270,000 of
his own stock. You
only buy it for one
reason, which is you
think the stock's
going to go up...
You sell for many
(reasons)... you buy
for one...
Here's the bottom
line...
▼ ▼
▼ ▼
▼
The
Bottom Line!:
For a speculative
play on the
increasing
complexity of
gadgets, gizmos and
doo-dahs...
Cadence Design
Systems Inc. (CDNS)
has what we want
now, and it's
turning itself
around. And, more
important, it looks
like it has what the
mutual fund managers
want too, and you
want to be ahead of
them. I cannot
believe it... this
dog, this bow-wow
has cleaned up its
act up, and I am
recommending for the
first time ever on
Mad Money, the stock
of Cadence.
▼ ▼
▼ ▼
▼
[verbatim
recap]
[end of segment]
Read Jim's next Segment
here
▼ ▼
▼ ▼
▼
Read Jim's next Segment
here
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
 |
|
|
 |
 |
|
|
|
Search for Jim's past comments about a specific
stock. Use
ticker symbol or company name in quotes
(e.g., GOOG or "Google") |
|
 |
|
|
|
|
|
|