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Opening Segment #3: |
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'The
Bank Shot' |
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Friday,
May 8, 2009 |
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Jim's
rating on
this stock |
STOCK
SYMBOL |
Closing
price that
day |
Full Company Name |
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PBCT |
16.09 |
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People's United Financial
Inc. (PBCT)
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Jim:
Right now, at this
very moment, there
is a mad dash to buy
the bad... the worst
banks... the ones
that were driven
down to what looks
like certain
oblivion by the
bears, the fear
mongers and the
panickers...
Some of that dash
comes from short
sellers who are
desperate to bring
their shorts in, as
betting against
these banks has been
one of the best
trades in history.
That will soon be
over, this frantic
buying... Yes, it
will become a
frantic attempt to
bring the shorts
in... But, after
that, we're going to
find out that not
all banks are going
to be shut.
Some are going to
make it like
Huntington Bancshares
(HBAN)
and
Capital One
(COF),
PNC Financial (PNC)
and
SunTrust (STI)...
but they're going to
rally... I say, all
well and good...
we've got a big week
in them next week...
we salute them. We
buy into the logic
of owning them. Huge
mutual funds are
underrated in the
group...
Wall Street jibberish
for need to buy more
of them, if they are
going to catch up to
them in this runaway
market...
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See comments continued below...
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Friday,
May 8, 2009
(Cont'd from
above)...
Jim
(cont'd):
Here's the
problem... Soon, the
euphoria in the
short covering will
indeed be over.
Then, what will we
be left with? How
about earnings? How
about profits? How
about franchises
that can take
advantage of what we
know is still in
chaos that we know
isn't going anywhere
anytime soon...
We're going to have
chaos for months...
That's why we want
to circle back to
some of the stocks
that could have made
you great money in
this bank ride...
the solvent, smaller
banks that are about
to become big banks,
as they get to buy
banks that can't
pass stress tests...
then get good
branches from the
FDIC when they close
banks... and there
will be many banks
that will still be
closed.
That's why we like
People's United Financial
Inc. (PBCT)...
a $16 bank that has
a high-quality
problem... It's been
so conservative that
it has too much
capital... That's
right, I'm repeating
that... it has too
much capital.
PBCT is the largest
independent New
England bank with a
tangible asset
ratio... of 19.5%...
Its peers have a
6.1% ratio... Three
times better...
amazing... three
times better.
It also has
non-performing
assets... that is,
soured loans as a
percentage of all
loans... of only
0.25%... Most of
them have 1.75%.
This is the lowest
non-performing
assets, with the
largest amount of
capital, of any of
the banks that I
follow. PBCT is a
disciplined
operator; it's
always on the prowl
for acquisitions...
taking advantage of
the same depressed
prices that some of
the big mutual funds
are starting to
do...
It bought
Chittenden, a large
Vermont bank with a
depressed valuation,
just last year. It's
now ready for
regulatory-assisted
transactions...
Let's cut to the
chase...
In the great savings
and loan debacle of
the late 1980s,
another conservative
bank, Fleet... a
little bank out of
Rhode Island... took
advantage of
depressed prices,
and bought
neighboring banks,
like the
very-low-priced
NorthStar bank in
New York... and most
of the banks around
it were getting in
trouble and blowing
up... including the
banking king at the
time... the Bank of
New England...
Because of its
innate conservatism,
Fleet got
most-favored bank
status by the FDIC.
When the regulators
put Bank of New
England up for sale,
Fleet was allowed to
buy it. That
ultimately made
Fleet one of the
largest and most
important franchises
in the country, and
a fantastic takeover
candidate in
itself...
Ultimately, Fleet
sold out to Bank of
America... From the
time of the
NorthStar
acquisition, until
it was acquired by
Bank of America,
Fleet gave you a
500% return.
The bottom line...
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The
Bottom Line!:
I think
People's United Financial
Inc. (PBCT)
is the next Fleet. I
think it will make
more fill-in
acquisitions, and be
given the best
pickings by the FDIC
in the New England
area. In the
meantime, it is one
of the few banks
still paying a nice
dividend... about
3.75%... most banks
have had to cancel
or slash their
dividend... not this
one... paying you to
wait for it to take
over the New England
market, as I think
it can. You need to
be in a bank here.
You don't want to
chase them. I think
you should take a
hard look at PBCT.
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[verbatim
recap]
[end of segment]
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