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Opening Segment #3: |
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'Cruise
Control'
CEO
Interview
with
Richard
Fain, CEO
Royal
Caribbean |
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Monday,
May 11, 2009 |
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Jim's
rating on
this stock |
STOCK
SYMBOL |
Closing
price that
day |
Full Company Name |
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RCL |
15.86 |
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Royal
Caribbean
Cruises Ltd.
(RCL)
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Jim:
Is the consumer
alive, well and
sunning itself on
the deck of a cruise
ship… that is the
question that I want
to try to answer
today by looking at
Royal Caribbean
Cruises Ltd. (RCL)…
that is up 15.3% so
far this year… now
you do not expect
the cruise stocks to
outperform during a
recession… but Royal
Caribbean, which has
been a real target
of the short sellers
by the way, seems to
be telling us that
things aren’t so
bad… the cruise
companies have been
lowering prices to
create demand, and
it seems to be
working… demand was
only down 4.9%
across the board in
March… much less
than in previous
months, I am telling
you people that that
is a victory…
meanwhile on its
conference call
Royal Caribbean
pointed out that
while people are not
booking their trips
as far as in advance
as they used to..
they are becoming
much more
predictable… which
has made it easier
to forecast a demand
despite the tough
economy… the term
here is visibility,
a term that means a
companies ability to
see how much money
it will make in the
future… visibility
has improved, and
that is something
that we like.
The question is, has
the stock moved up
so much that it has
become expensive… we
like that Royal
Caribbean has
recovered… and I
believe that it is
the stronger brand,
stronger than
Carnival… but the
stock has had a big
move off of the
bottom… and even
though it is down
7.2% today, you have
got to wonder
whether or not you
have missed this
one, and you should
take a pass… the
company had a good
quarter, 17 cents
earnings beat, it
maintained its full
year guidance and it
is overflowing with
liquidity, which is
really the key here…
$1.1b more than
enough to pay down
the $250m in debt
that matures in
2010.
I think that Royal
Caribbean is a stock
that is telling us
that things are
going to get better…
but have we already
missed the move…
when things finally
do get better, will
this stock do
nothing, because it
already reflects the
good news… or will
it keep going
higher… I say that
we talk to Richard
Fain, the CEO of
Royal Caribbean to
help us figure
things out…
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See comments continued below...
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Monday,
May 11, 2009
(Cont'd from
above)...
Jim
(cont'd):
Jim:
Mr.
Fain, welcome to Mad
Money.
Richard:
Hi, Jim.
Nice to be here.
Jim:
Now, you are…
this is a great
conference call, I
have to tell you,
because you talk
about, I have to
quote this…
“admittedly we are
providing our guests
more value than we
would like to these
days”… and “pricing
continues to be
miserable. But at
least it seems to be
at a miserable level
that is stable”…
alright, tell us how
you can come out and
tell the truth like
that and then give
us the idea that
miserable could
actually be… how is
miserable good? How
did that happen?
Richard:
Yes, I know
that it sounds
unusual. Maybe it is
unusual for somebody
to be honest. But
the fact is,
everybody thought
that it had been so
bad and I think that
is why the shares
have been so
terribly oversold.
The fact is that we
continue to fill our
ships, not at the
top prices that we
would like to be
doing. But at a
stable level, that
obviously as we come
out of this
recession, puts us
into an even better
position to do well.
So, even though it
was much less of a
quarter that I was
hoping for, and this
year looks to be
earning only half of
what we did last
year. It is still so
much better than
anybody would have
expected from a
company like ours in
a discretionary
business, and the
future looks good. I
thought it was a
good time.
Jim:
One of the
thesis that we have
been working under
is the market
bottomed in March,
because it
forecasted a turn in
the economy. And the
turn, I thought was
subtle, but the more
work I do on April
numbers of companies
like yours, I
realize that April
actually was a
relatively strong
month in this
country. You are
pretty much on board
with that, aren’t
you?
Richard:
We have
really said that the
market seems to have
stabilized. And
obviously when you
come down off of a
really steep
downward trend, and
then you are able to
stabilize, that is a
precursor to going
up. And that is
where I think we
will be going.
Jim:
Alright, there
is kind of like a
Book of Job thing
going on with Royal,
just when things
looked like they
were bouncing back
you got the swine
flu. Are we actually
mentally over that
in this country
already?
Richard:
Well, we
hope so. Obviously
it is the sort of
thing that we look
at very closely, and
everybody is very
attuned to. But I
think that what you
are now seeing is
that people realize
that it may not as
be as serious as was
first feared. I
think it was right
to overreact. The
right way to deal
with a something
serious like a
possible illness, is
to overreact to it.
But now we are
getting a little
more information,
and I think that
that should make us
all feel a little
better.
Jim:
Absolutely, Mr.
Fain, one of the
things that the
shorts tell me is
that look they never
could borrow, they
are in trouble. You
got a 12 year fixed
at 5.82%. That is
actually what I
regard as what
triple A companies
could borrow at,
isn’t it?
Richard:
It is not
bad. You know, I was
asked what do you do
when something like
this happens to
improve your
liquidity. And in
some respects, it is
too late when the
liquidity situation
happens. The reason
that our liquidity
situation is good is
because we took
action a year ago,
two years ago, three
years ago in some
cases. And that is
why we are able to
pull off this kind
of financing, even
in today’s market.
Jim:
Okay, one of
the things that you
describe and I want
our viewers to know,
you talk about how
you make money from
customers. And it
seems like you make
money, it is like
pennies now, vs.
dimes and nickels a
couple of years ago.
Isn’t it?
Richard:
I think
that we continue to
see money from all
different sources.
And I think we are
seeing people are
paying less now, but
not that much less.
And our onboard
spending has maybe a
little bit down, but
really just a small
amount. So I think
this gives me
comfort for the
future.
Jim:
Now, one of the
things that I have
found amazing, and I
do not know your
industry well
enough, but I live
to learn from CEO’s.
You say at one point
Alaska was hot, and
then another area
gets hot, and then
another area. How
does it, how do you
find out what is
hot? And how do you
have the ships ready
for what is hot?
Richard:
Well, first
of all the good news
is that we get a lot
of our business in
advance. So we have
a good deal of
visibility, the word
that you used, well
into the future. So
we can see months in
advance how people
are reacting. And
the other thing that
is unique about our
business, and it is
totally unique, is
our assets move. If
Alaska is hot, we
can go to Alaska. If
Alaska cools down as
it has, we have the
ability to move
elsewhere. And one
of the things that
is happening is the
overseas markets are
beginning to virgin.
So, we have been so
focused on the
United States that
we have not spent as
much time as looking
abroad. And what we
see is that our
product is very
attractive to them.
Cheap to them
because their
currency has become
more valuable. It is
a great opportunity
and a great
flexibility.
Jim:
Alright, let me
ask you one last
question. It has
always bothered me,
look I was a hedge
fund manager and I
used to short stocks
all the time, why is
it… look I know that
you are
discretionary, but I
also know your price
point, which is a
lot cheaper than a
lot of vacations but
yet people still
take vacations… why
is it that anytime
the economy goes
bad, they have
decided to just
pound your stock
into oblivion? Is
there something that
I am missing given
that your balance
sheet is okay and
the numbers are
okay? Tell me what I
am missing.
Richard:
Well, you
probably have not
made money betting
against us. Actually
you are the expert
on stocks, our focus
is running the best
cruise line that we
know how. And all I
can say is that whey
you bet against us,
you better be sure
what you are doing.
Because by and large
we have proven you
wrong.
Jim:
Right, because
there is not a lot…
look I know last
year was tough, but
there is not a lot
of companies that I
follow that are up
as much as you are
in 2009.
Congratulations, it
was nice to talk to
you.
Richard:
Thank you very
much, nice to be
here.
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Jim's
comments AFTER the
interview:
Alright, look you
heard what I heard
which is that things
are getting better…
is the takeaway to
buy
Royal Caribbean
Cruises Ltd. (RCL)…
you know what, the
stock has moved a
lot, so that is
typically not my
style… but how about
the fact that it was
down 8% today, could
be down a little
more… as this one
gets closer to $12,
$11... I will tell
you what I am going
to do… pull the
trigger.
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[verbatim
recap]
[end of segment]
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