Tuesday, May 12, 2009
(Cont'd from above)...

Jim (cont'd):   

All day I wrote that this underdog should be bought... all day I championed the underdog, as I have since this rally began, right into the teeth of the selloff... right into all those doubters that bet that this market couldn't make it into the playoffs... I saw playoff potential from the moment it started... I didn't waver, even though the market was still down badly when I appeared on (CNBC's) "Stop Trading"... saying that you had to buy some Anadarko Petroleum (APC) and Bank of New York (BK) - two soggy slugs of new stock that had already broken what's known as the "print price"... meaning the price at which the company sold the new shares...

Oh... my neck was out there... stuck out further than Marie Antoinette's... as I told people to forget the cake, and take some stock on these broken deals...

Of course, as the market turned around, and the questions came out, all I heard was, "Who was doing the buying?"... "How did it happen?"... Just like every other underdog I have seen make it into the playoffs, its strength only created more doubters, not supporters... not believers... Heathens!... A bunch of dirty, rotten heathens!...

Alright, it turned out the Cinderella Team trumped those doubters and we made it to where so few thought we could go, with the Dow Jones Average closing up 50 points, after 103-point rally off of today's lows...

To me, this market is a champion... Alright, so the Nasdaq didn't close up... you can't have it all...

What happened?... I mean, what really happened, as opposed to some "mystery buyer"... all the nonsense that you hear all day that just drives me crazy...

Alright, a couple of things...

First, when everyone's so negative, the market's just not going to comply with all the bears... I mean, there too many people who must be in this market to get performance... who must buy, and they can't wait for it to come back... they have to buy, which is why I keep saying this is precisely what happens in a bull market... people need to get in.

Second... the deals... all these equity offerings... they are not negative... Anadarko Petroleum (APC), one of our absolute favorite natural gas plays, has been a red-hot stock, but it has a sub-par balance sheet... This additional capital allows them to be opportunistic... they can pay down debt, they can go buy someone... Hey, why not? With natural gas down at $4 and change, and share prices still depressed... how can that be bad for you as a shareholder? No wonder the stock rallied after some initial softness... that saw it $1 below where the big slug was priced... I'm still a buyer of Anadarko...

The same goes for Bank of New York (BK) and US Bancorp (USB)... These two banks sold stock down more than 10% from last week's highs... The bears say, "look out below!"... I say, wait a second... Cramer buddy, pal, friend... and, almost as important, Treasury Secretary, Tim Geithner, came up with stress tests that allowed the banks to pass, to raise money, and become more solvent... and that's exactly what they're doing...

How can that be bad?... How can that be bad for shareholders?... Take that professors!... And Mary Anns...

Both USB and BK, at first, failed to hold their offering prices... but that's when you had to swoop in... you had to swoop in, and... buy, buy, buy!...

It makes me want to do the same thing for F when it prices 300 million shares later this week... Do not buy it on that offering. Wait until the mealy-mouthed, Casper milk toasts panic... and then do some buying... Nobody ever made a dime panicking, but you could make plenty off the panic of others.

Finally, this is a market that has all the way suffered at the hands, not of the linebackers, but the "pullbackers"... people who think that every single decline is something huge and scary... like you should wait for the big pullback... wait for the big decline to end before you buy... What an extraordinary, non-gutsy, unhelpful position to take... I say, strap something on, and make a darn call...

We continue to be buyers of stocks that we like when they come down intraday... we're not looking for the big pullback... we're not looking for the so-called "gigunda decline"... We think the intraday dips are your best bets to get in on a good price... other than when you buy an underwriting, after it breaks the "print price"... meaning after it goes below where the big deals are offering it...

The dips include those that we see in tech... meaning, how about Intel (INTC) down all day and then, after the close, they announced a better-than-expected quarter, making the intraday buy look awful darn smart...

We reiterate that this market has all the characteristics an underdog that must be bet on... I'm "all in"... not one that should be scoffed at... or viewed as a "flash in the pan"... In fact, I would like to take a frying pan, and knock it against the heads of some of those sunshine bear/bulls... you know, the "summer patriots"...

But what, ultimately, even they will realize is that there are simply more people who need to get into this market than there are people who need or want to get out... and the best merchandise to buy are the equity deals that don't hold initially... because the new money flowing into them fixes them so they can march ever higher...

In other words, your chance to buy Anadarko Petroleum (APC) and Bank of New York (BK) and US Bancorp (USB)... came today!... If you took it, you bet on the biggest underdogs of a totally disrespected market, and you will do just fine... believe me!

The bottom line...

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The Bottom Line!:     You have to see pullbacks and equity offerings that don't hold at first as opportunities to buy... and not reasons to panic and sell... Because there are ultimately more reasons to believe in this market than to fear it... Got me!

[verbatim recap]

[end of segment]

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