You absolutely must know, in the short term, that what the big shareholders are doing matters a lot more than what the actual companies are doing... That's right... the buying and selling of the stock matters more sometimes than the underlying prospects of the company... and this is one of those times.

Now, normally, I talk about the Wall Street fashion show... about what stocks are in favor, and out of favor, to help you get inside the minds of these big dogs... something that's made possible by the fact that these guys tend to think alike... a lot of groupthink in the business..

But there's another way to do this...

You can try to use the charts of stocks to try to find sophisticated patterns that mimic the actual minds of the major institutional shareholders, without ever asking them what they're actually doing...

That's the reason we go "off the charts" every Tuesday... and it's the reason we follow the work of Rick Bensignor... he's the Chief Market Strategist at Execution Limited, and writer of the Top Gun Trader at TheStreet.com where I'm Chairman...

What's with this Bensignor?...

I like to use Bensignor's charts, in part, because he's the top gun out there, but also because his charts work as a substitute for me... for knowing what the big money thinks... He's ferreting out what the big boys are doing, by looking at their footprints... that's what a chart really is... the footprint of big money...

Given that many people think the market is "toppy"... you hear that all day... and the buyer seems "exhausted"... meaning they're eitehr sick of paying up for stocks... or they've run out of money to pay up with... a technician like Bensignor can help tell us which ones are truly finished running their marathon and ready to fall... and, if he's good enough and has a following, which Rick happens to have from the days that I followed him... from the years that I followed him... at Morgan Stanley, then he can become as powerful as any fundamental analyst or strategist out there, and I think he's becoming that. That's one of the reasons why I highlight him...

Remember, Bensignor is the guy who said to buy Bank of America (BAC) when everyone else thought it was going out of business, on March 9th... It was at $3.75. We talked about right here. You got in there. And he told you to take half off, after a double... then he told you to take the rest off at $14 yesterday, for more than a 10-point gain...

He has become known as the technician with the scorching hand... so we've got to know what his next big call is...

Right now... Oh boy, this is a tough one for me... Rick Bensignor says that Goldman Sachs (GS*), one of my absolute favorite stocks... one that my charitable trust, ActionAlertsPlus.com owns... is a sell!

No... He says it's a sell, sell, sell!...

Sacrilege, heresy, lunacy, communist, Tratzchyovite, anarchist?... No. The guy's too good... We've got to look at the charts and consider that he might be onto something...

Goldman has surged from $47 to $135.41 and, according to Bensignor, the charts indicate that the buyers have indeed become "exhausted"... So, look at a daily chart, alright?...

Goldman is coming up against $140 level, okay... where it peaked last fall... that's one of the things he looks at, where it peaked last fall... before the stock broke down... it broke down here last time, so Rick is saying that it probably could break down here this time...

That's called a "resistance area" meaning that, everytime it comes close to that level, shareholders are going to sell, and that knocks the stock down.

You can also see that Goldman has been rallying on dwindling volume... the volume is going like this (down) as the stock goes like this (up)... That's another technician's nightmare... another sign that things... well, that this has been more about short covering at this point, than about genuine buying interest...

And, in general, technicians use volume as a polygraph... What's this polygraph showing?...

A stock tells the truth when it moves on higher volume, but the move might not be for real if the volume is low... So the volume's going down and the stock's going up... That is a total and unequivocal red flag...

Then, on weekly charts... Now, there are a couple more signs that the buyers of Goldman could be "exhausted"... This one really bothers me... They're both pretty sophisticated so let me break them down...

First, this is the thing... it's called the "TD setup"... that measures the number of weeks that Goldman's stock has ended higher than where it closed four weeks before... The stock has reached a +9... nine weeks... Just because of all the work he has done, that turns out to be a place where you get exhaustion...

Imagine... that's like, you can run eight miles and then, in the ninth mile, you collapse...

He's been able to detect this... again, by measuring other patterns of buying... to track what the big institutions are doing... Goldman has just gone up too consistently for too long... Anyone who wants in has either already bought it or they're waiting for a pullback...

Remember, this is Bensignor's... this is not my view...

The second sign?...

Goldman has virtually reached the top of its weekly "cloud" chart... Oh man... this "cloud" stuff is based on Japanese technical work... and Bensignor has made a lot of great calls based on it.

He thinks that Goldman could be headed to $113, or even potentially as low as $95... and it's stopped by the cloud...

Now, to me, you know... I don't know the cloud theory, okay... He's done the work... To me... I'm looking at other things like the price that it is against its earnings...

Now, not every technician thinks this way... Laslo Birinyi, one of my absolute favorite technical... plus he's got some fundamental stuff... was on Bloomberg TV this morning. He's saying that Goldman is the one to buy. I agree with him.

So we don't just have a duel between fundamentalists and technicians, we've got a battle royale between two technicians...

I say, "look out!"... I hope they have their pocket protectors handy for that furious matchup...

No matter who wins, I'm happy. If Goldman goes up, that's great. If it breaks through the clouds, I am thrilled. If it goes down, I am still a buyer... Nothing to complain about since, based on the fundamentals, I think this one is headed much higher! Much higher!

I wouldn't be shocked if we saw a short-term pullback along with the rest of the financials, just based on all the secondary offerings that the banks have been doing every single night...

Remember, stocks do react to supply and demand... just like any other type of merchandise... so more supply tends to mean lower prices.

I do not think that Goldman will fall below where it did its big secondary... which is right here (pointing to $135 level)... See, I think it holds that level. You know, you're going to get like 10 points there... I think there's 12 points, before, even in a pullback... and it did its secondary on April 14th, and I don't think it goes there...

Goldman is simply a fabulous company... the best of the financials by far... the one that came through this period without any horrible mortgage exposure... because it's a great risk manager. It doesn't have an aversion to risk. It just knows how to manage risk.

Now Goldman is in a position to take market share across the board, and increase margins in every single one of its divisions... It has the best talent pool in the industry... it's hiring... some would say poaching... top quality talent from its TARP-ed up competitors... and it's the leader in advising other companies.

It has a terrific balance sheet, with both Tier 1 capital and tangible common equity at industry highs. Goldman was one of only two major financial firms that was able to offer debt without the government's backing, and it's planning on paying back TARP as soon as the government gives it permission...

When they return that money, it will be a huge positive catalyst for the stock that I think drives Goldman higher... and you know I've been behind this the whole way up... Some people are tired of me saying it...

I never get tired of making money. The stock has nearly tripled from its lows, so I can understand why people feel that Goldman is expensive, but the fundamentals are improving... Goldman reported a blowout, better-than-expected first quarter a month ago... driven by outperformance in fixed-income commodities and currencies... That's just one division... Its other divisions have a lot of room to improve, and there are plenty of reasons to think they will...

Its equity capital markets business should improve... That's where I'm out of... I worked at Goldman in the 80s... and its investment banking business should benefit from the incredibly rapid increase in debt and equity offerings being announced... Goldman is in on almost every one of these deals and its going to make a ton of money.

Goldman's got good fundamentals now but, given their positioning, they're going to become great and, when they do, the stock should go much higher.

I'm not going to worry about this... Goldman may look pricey... it may look heavy... it may seem tired... but it's still trading at a huge discount to where it's been before and to its historic book value, which is actual cash...

The stock has a history of moving big in either direction. I think the direction is up!

The bottom line...