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Opening Segment #3: |
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'Driver's
Ed' |
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Friday,
May 15, 2009 |
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Jim's
rating on
this stock |
STOCK
SYMBOL |
Closing
price that
day |
Full Company Name |
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MNRO |
26.64 |
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Monro Muffler Brake Inc.
(MNRO)
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ORLY |
36.17 |
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O'Reilly Automotive Inc.
(ORLY)
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Jim:
Everyone's talking
about how the autos
are pulling back,
with the two Detroit
zombies, GM and
Chrysler, shutting
down 1,100 and 789
of their
dealerships,
respectively... A
lot of people are
going to lose a lot
of money here,
especially since GM
plans on shutting
down a total of
2,600 of its 6,200
dealerships... A lot
of people are going
to lose their jobs
here... and that's a
tough story, but you
know, in the end...
we're in Cramerica,
on this show... and
the show's about
making money...
So these dealership
closings have a big
silver lining, if
only you know where
to look...
See, we're seeing a
huge secular shift
away from dealer
services... so we've
got to put on our
basic Economics 101
hat... It's supply
and demand... The
fewer dealers there
out there, the less
competition there
will be among those
dealers... so the
ones that remain
will, of course, be
able to raise
prices... they'll
charge a lot more
for their
services... no more
competition.
Now why don't we
throw in the
convenience
factor... A lot of
people who would
take their car to
get serviced at the
local dealership
won't want to
anymore... because,
with all these
closings, the "local
dealership" could be
three counties
over...
So let's add it all
up...
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See comments continued below...
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Friday,
May 15, 2009
(Cont'd from
above)...
Jim
(cont'd):
You add it all up
and these closings
mean we're going to
see more and more
people going to, not
dealers, but repair
shops... regular old
repair shops... and
not going to
companies that are
affiliated with the
automakers anymore.
That means more
business for the mom
and pops, right...
and also the
independent chains
that are closer to
the customer than
the dealers are.
Chrysler and GM can
get rid of their
dealerships, but the
cars are still out
there... and, of
course, the cars
must be serviced...
and they're being
held onto longer and
longer...
Even with the
recession, we still
aren't seeing people
learn how to service
and repair their
cars themselves...
The dealer is about
to be gone, so we've
got to ask
ourselves, who
benefits?...
And the purest play
to me, that is still
inexpensive, is
Monro Muffler Brake Inc.
(MNRO)...
That's that auto
repair chain...
you've seen it...
This is the best
play on the
vanishing GM and
Chrysler
dealerships.
Now, given the fact
that we were
somewhat forward
thinking about this,
I recommended it
back last year,
August 19th... It
was at $20.32...
while the stock is
up a whopping 6
points since then...
that's a 31% gain.
It's one of the few
companies with a
stock that's higher
now than it was last
August. We didn't
get lucky... We did
a lot of
homework,
and the CEO came on
the show... it just
was a terrific
story.
Monro Mufflers is
the ideal place to
capitalize on the
euthanasia of all
these dealerships...
37% of Chrysler's
announced
dealerships closing
are in states where
Monro has a
presence...
especially in the
Northeast, so you
can see the market
share going Monro's
way... We don't know
exactly where the GM
closings are, but
they could provide a
similarly huge
opportunity...
There's a great map
in the paper today,
showing all these
Chrysler
dealerships...
Overlap that with
Monro... it's
everywhere... which
is why I decided to
do this tonight.
Probably the reason
why Monro was up 7%
today... and yes,
wait for a pullback
before starting to
build a position...
is that others are
thinking like this
too... but, don't
worry, you are not
too late...
By the way, this
isn't just a play on
the competition
disappearing...
MNRO is a terrific
company. It's been
doing very well in a
really difficult
environment...
Last March, the
company raised its
4th quarter and
fiscal 2009
guidance... but the
stock didn't even go
up... I remember, I
was on Erin
Burnett's show, and
I said, how can this
stock not go up,
it's raising
guidance...
Same-store sales or
comps, as we call
them on Wall Street
are expected to be
up 10%... I don't
have any
double-digit comp
plays that I know of
right now... It was
only supposed to be
up 4-7%... Monro
raised its earning
guidance to a higher
range, from $1.14 to
$1.19 per share, to
$1.17 to $1.20...
Many of the raises
that you heard today
were from losses.
This company isn't
losing money.
The company is also
benefitting from
lower oil and tire
expenses. Those
costs have come down
very big.
Monro understands
the position it's
in... It sees that
the dealerships are
vulnerable, and it's
gone for the
jugular, if not the
carotid artery...
Monro has said that
its fourth quarter
earnings power was
limited by its
aggressive
advertising and
promotion of its
tire and maintenance
services... Why?...
Well, why not? To
take away market
share away from
dealerships and
other competitors...
to make a splash.
Now the dealerships
are just vanishing,
and Monro is letting
all its potential
customers... letting
them all know...
that it's ready to
take their place.
Now, there's another
way to play the
incredible
disappearing auto
dealerships...
that's a little bit
more well-known, and
a company that we've
featured before...
and that's with the
auto parts
retailers.
These are the
companies that sell
parts to, and
service the mom and
pop repair shops,
and they're going to
take a great
position... They're
in unbelievable
shape... I'm talking
about
AutoZone Inc. (AZO),
Advance Auto
Parts Inc. (AAP),
and O'Reilly...
they're all going to
benefit.
My favorite remains
O'Reilly Automotive Inc.
(ORLY)...
because it has the
most potential to
increase its
profits...
The company is
integrating its
major acquisition of
CSK, which gives it
an easier way to
increase its
margins, and gives
you a better entry
point. There's not
much AutoZone can do
to boost its already
high margins...
Advanced Auto Parts,
currently in
turnaround mode... I
don't want to be on
a turnaround. Those
are too hard. I want
to play on the
increased business
that these companies
will have with so
many dealerships,
which get their
parts from the
manufacturers
shutting their
doors...
ORLY... not cheap...
15x earnings...
Again, I told you
these stories are
not unknown.
AutoZone, 12x
earnings... but I
think ORLY has the
most room to expand
and to improve,
because of that
integration of
CSK... Yeah, it's
got the most room to
grow and, in the
eyes of Wall Street,
that makes it more
valuable than its
competitors...
So let's give you
the bottom line
here...
▼ ▼
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The
Bottom Line!:
We have two ways to
play the death of
all these auto
dealerships...
either
Monro Muffler Brake Inc.
(MNRO)...
remember, wait for a
pullback... it was
up too much today...
or ORLY for an auto
parts retailer that
supplies
non-dealership
repair shops.
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[verbatim
recap]
[end of segment]
Read Jim's next Segment
here
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