Opening Segment #3:
'Driver's Ed'
Friday, May 15, 2009
 

Jim's
rating on
this stock

STOCK
SYMBOL

Closing
price that
day

Full Company Name

MNRO

26.64

Monro Muffler Brake Inc. (MNRO)



ORLY

36.17

O'Reilly Automotive Inc. (ORLY)



Jim:     Everyone's talking about how the autos are pulling back, with the two Detroit zombies, GM and Chrysler, shutting down 1,100 and 789 of their dealerships, respectively... A lot of people are going to lose a lot of money here, especially since GM plans on shutting down a total of 2,600 of its 6,200 dealerships... A lot of people are going to lose their jobs here... and that's a tough story, but you know, in the end... we're in Cramerica, on this show... and the show's about making money...

So these dealership closings have a big silver lining, if only you know where to look...

See, we're seeing a huge secular shift away from dealer services... so we've got to put on our basic Economics 101 hat... It's supply and demand... The fewer dealers there out there, the less competition there will be among those dealers... so the ones that remain will, of course, be able to raise prices... they'll charge a lot more for their services... no more competition.

Now why don't we throw in the convenience factor... A lot of people who would take their car to get serviced at the local dealership won't want to anymore... because, with all these closings, the "local dealership" could be three counties over...

So let's add it all up...

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Market Results today:

Dow:  - 62

Nasdaq:  - 9

S&P 500:  - 10

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Friday, May 15, 2009
(Cont'd from above)...

Jim (cont'd):

You add it all up and these closings mean we're going to see more and more people going to, not dealers, but repair shops... regular old repair shops... and not going to companies that are affiliated with the automakers anymore. That means more business for the mom and pops, right... and also the independent chains that are closer to the customer than the dealers are.

Chrysler and GM can get rid of their dealerships, but the cars are still out there... and, of course, the cars must be serviced... and they're being held onto longer and longer...

Even with the recession, we still aren't seeing people learn how to service and repair their cars themselves...

The dealer is about to be gone, so we've got to ask ourselves, who benefits?...

And the purest play to me, that is still inexpensive, is
Monro Muffler Brake Inc. (MNRO)...

That's that auto repair chain... you've seen it... This is the best play on the vanishing GM and Chrysler dealerships.

Now, given the fact that we were somewhat forward thinking about this, I recommended it back last year, August 19th... It was at $20.32... while the stock is up a whopping 6 points since then... that's a 31% gain. It's one of the few companies with a stock that's higher now than it was last August. We didn't get lucky... We did a lot of
homework, and the CEO came on the show... it just was a terrific story.

Monro Mufflers is the ideal place to capitalize on the euthanasia of all these dealerships...

37% of Chrysler's announced dealerships closing are in states where Monro has a presence... especially in the Northeast, so you can see the market share going Monro's way... We don't know exactly where the GM closings are, but they could provide a similarly huge opportunity... There's a great map in the paper today, showing all these Chrysler dealerships... Overlap that with Monro... it's everywhere... which is why I decided to do this tonight.

Probably the reason why Monro was up 7% today... and yes, wait for a pullback before starting to build a position... is that others are thinking like this too... but, don't worry, you are not too late...

By the way, this isn't just a play on the competition disappearing...

MNRO is a terrific company. It's been doing very well in a really difficult environment...

Last March, the company raised its 4th quarter and fiscal 2009 guidance... but the stock didn't even go up... I remember, I was on Erin Burnett's show, and I said, how can this stock not go up, it's raising guidance...

Same-store sales or comps, as we call them on Wall Street are expected to be up 10%... I don't have any double-digit comp plays that I know of right now... It was only supposed to be up 4-7%... Monro raised its earning guidance to a higher range, from $1.14 to $1.19 per share, to $1.17 to $1.20... Many of the raises that you heard today were from losses. This company isn't losing money.

The company is also benefitting from lower oil and tire expenses. Those costs have come down very big.

Monro understands the position it's in... It sees that the dealerships are vulnerable, and it's gone for the jugular, if not the carotid artery...

Monro has said that its fourth quarter earnings power was limited by its aggressive advertising and promotion of its tire and maintenance services... Why?... Well, why not? To take away market share away from dealerships and other competitors... to make a splash. Now the dealerships are just vanishing, and Monro is letting all its potential customers... letting them all know... that it's ready to take their place.

Now, there's another way to play the incredible disappearing auto dealerships... that's a little bit more well-known, and a company that we've featured before... and that's with the auto parts retailers.

These are the companies that sell parts to, and service the mom and pop repair shops, and they're going to take a great position... They're in unbelievable shape... I'm talking about
AutoZone Inc. (AZO), Advance Auto Parts Inc. (AAP), and O'Reilly... they're all going to benefit.

My favorite remains
O'Reilly Automotive Inc. (ORLY)... because it has the most potential to increase its profits...

The company is integrating its major acquisition of CSK, which gives it an easier way to increase its margins, and gives you a better entry point. There's not much AutoZone can do to boost its already high margins... Advanced Auto Parts, currently in turnaround mode... I don't want to be on a turnaround. Those are too hard. I want to play on the increased business that these companies will have with so many dealerships, which get their parts from the manufacturers shutting their doors...

ORLY... not cheap... 15x earnings... Again, I told you these stories are not unknown. AutoZone, 12x earnings... but I think ORLY has the most room to expand and to improve, because of that integration of CSK... Yeah, it's got the most room to grow and, in the eyes of Wall Street, that makes it more valuable than its competitors...

So let's give you the bottom line here...

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The Bottom Line!:      We have two ways to play the death of all these auto dealerships... either Monro Muffler Brake Inc. (MNRO)... remember, wait for a pullback... it was up too much today... or ORLY for an auto parts retailer that supplies non-dealership repair shops.

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[verbatim recap]

[end of segment]


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