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Opening Segment #3: |
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'Trash
Into Cash?' |
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Monday,
May 18, 2009 |
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Jim's
rating on
this stock |
STOCK
SYMBOL |
Closing
price that
day |
Full Company Name |
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WMI |
27.86 |
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Jim:
When ever the stock
of a good company
with a modest to
moderately sized
dividend takes a big
fall… you should
thank your lucky
stars… because you
have just been given
one of the highest
quality
opportunities in
this, or any other
market… the chance
to buy, buy, buy….
and accidentally
high yielder… I have
spent a great deal
of time talking
about this concept
on this show… but
much less so since
the market bottomed
in early March, and
the incredible rally
that we are
believers in began…
after last weeks
sell off though, we
got some great
accidentally high
yielders worth
noticing… and they
are not to be
missed...
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See comments continued below...
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Monday,
May 18, 2009
(Cont'd from
above)...
Jim
(cont'd):
Take
Waste Management (WMI),
the largest trash
collection and
disposal company in
America… which is up
10.3% since I last
recommended it at
$25.25 on March
18th… that is
nothing… I think
there is still
plenty of upside in
this stock because
it has achieved
accidentally high
yielder status…
let’s go over what
that means… with
companies that pay
dividends, dividend
yield shrinks as the
share price
increases, and the
yield rises as the
share price falls…
when a stock with a
so-so dividend falls
far enough, that the
yield crosses above
4%… and right now
Waste Management
yields 4.2%… in our
book, it becomes an
accidentally high
yielder… it is
accidental, because
Waste Management did
not get such a high
yield by raising its
dividend endlessly…
those are
intentionally high
yielders… rather its
yield grew large
because the stock
fell… at its 52 week
high, Waste
Management only
yielded, well a
little bit less than
3%…. not puny, but
not big enough to
recommend.
Now, though, we have
a chance to buy a
company that has a
double digit long
term earnings
growth, something
Wall Street cannot
get enough of, and
be paid a nice 4.2%
dividend for owning
it… which is
slightly more than
you would get for
owning long term US
Treasuries, before
taxes and
considerably more
after you give the
IRS its due, as the
tax rate on
dividends is very
favorable, just 15%…
speaking of Waste
Managements
dividend, the next
quarterly payout is
coming up in a month
on June 19th… that
is a .29 cent a
share dividend right
in your pocket as
long as you own the
stock at the right
time.. when do you
need to buy the
stock before it
becomes too late to
snatch that big
dividend… now you
always hear a ton of
confusing Wall
Street jibberish
whenever you read
about the actual
process of
collecting a
dividend… so lets
cut thru that… let
me make it really
simple for you… do
not get confused by
terms like the
ex-date or the
record date, the
only thing that you
need to know is the
term the must own
date… that is what
we call it here, the
must own date… the
last day that you
have to buy the
stock and still
collect the next
dividend… you must
own it by this date…
and the must own
date happens to be
the day before the
ex-date, which the
company will
announce when it
declares its
dividend.
Now, we know that
Waste Management’s
ex-date is May 28th,
that is a week from
Thursday… so the
must own date is
May27th… I need you
in ahead of that to
get the dividend…
now, one of the best
things about
accidentally high
yielders is that
their dividends to
be Olivia in
“Marathon Man” like,
no need to break out
the Novocain or even
the clove oil to
break yourself for a
dividend cut… Waste
Management is no
different… its
annual payout of
$1.16 should eat up
about 53% of Waste
Management’s
estimated $2.19
earnings per share
for 2010... hey,
that is tons of
protection… the
dividend should take
up less than half of
the earnings… but
Waste Management
comes pretty close…
and should generate
more than enough
free cash flow to
pay the dividend 2.3
times over in 2009,
so we are feeling
real comfortable.
You know why we like
Waste Management’s
dividend, but what
about the business…
how is that going…
okay, Waste
Management is doing
pretty well… even in
a recession we still
need to take out the
trash… trash volumes
are down though…
but, prices are up
2.6% across the
company… and total
collection is up 4%
even though the
volume has decreased
by 8%… it has also
increased the
environmental fee
that it charges from
4.2% to 6%, to pass
on increased costs
to its customers…
lets take a longer
term view… the
company seems to
have re-priced half
of its long term
landfill contracts
with 5 to 10% price
increases… and it is
also benefiting from
the fact that its
commercial
collection and roll
off customers have
been using smaller
waste containers…
they think that it
is a trade down, but
those actually carry
higher prices per
cubic yard.
After listening to
various banking
consults, and this
is really important
for timing, I am now
fairly convinced…
and I also got this
from listening to
home builders…
fairly convinced
that commercial and
residential
construction
activity in Florida
which has been
totally trashed, to
belabor the
metaphor, is
actually getting
better at last…
given that the
Southeast has been a
big part of the
earnings issue that
has sent this great
stock down from the
$30’s to the $20’s,
any reversal of that
negative condition
could spur the stock
right back up to its
old levels… and I am
telling you that I
smell a reversal,
and it is not just
trash that I smell.
And now management
is looking to go on
a shopping spree…
$250m to acquire
solid waste
companies… another
$250m to acquire
waste to energy
plants… $200m to
acquire medical
waste over the next
two years… I like
this, now is a great
time to be a buyer…
since even after we
have moved up
significantly from
the bottom in March…
stock prices are
still very far off
of their old highs…
and Waste Management
can probably get
away with paying
much less for these
acquisitions than it
would have had to a
year ago… we know
David Steiner, the
companies very
pro-share owner CEO,
walked away from a
larger deal not long
ago because it would
have cost too much…
that was so smart…
it would have hurt
shareholders… he is
our kind of guy… he
actually cares about
how his existing
shareholders do.
Here is the bottom
line…
▼ ▼
▼ ▼
▼
The
Bottom Line!:
Waste Management (WMI)
is raising prices…
it is in a great
position to make
some inexpensive
acquisition… and
best of all, it has
got an accidentally
high yield of 4.2%…
plus as long as you
buy the stock before
the close of trading
on Wednesday, May
27th, you get to
collect not only the
trash… but the next
quarterly dividend
payment in a month…
better than a
disgusting piece of
garbage in the face…
I want you to get
that dividend… I
think that you
should act before
the must own date to
get the job done...
Okay, I have got an
accidental high
yielder… I feel
comfortable for you
if you have missed
that wave because
the market has moved
too much, it is a
4.2% yielder… you
have to buy it by
the must own date of
May 27th to get that
great yield… and it
is WMI… Waste
Management… I think
that it is a keeper.
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[verbatim
recap]
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Jim went on after
this segment to take
questions from
callers, and
responded with his
comments...
```````````````````````````````````````````````````````````````````````````````````
Q:
You are always
saying to look for
money in the
headlines. I read
about some recycling
companies setting up
some new lines based
on laser, or
infra-red scanning
devices. What do you
think? Is this
something to invest
in?
Jim:
You know, all of
those scanning
devices have always
been traps for me… I
have never been able
to make any money in
them, particularly
Motorola Inc. (MOT)
bought one called
Symbol Technologies…
I want to be very
careful, I am not
going to recommend
any of those laser
companies… that is
too speculative for
me… we are not in
speculation Friday…
we have to be very
careful here… I say
ex-nay on that
style.
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Q:
Hey I am still in
love with China and
renewable energies,
particularly solar.
Suntech Power (STP),
Trina Solar Ltd. (TSL),
and
Yingli Green Energy Holding
Co. (YGE)
have doubled and
tripled respectively
since last time we
spoke. How are we
playing these
companies now?
Jim:
Well, we like First
Solar… I know, look,
the Chinese market
is up more than 60%
so it is taking up
all of the
speculative plays…
why have I stayed
away from those… one
is because they are
impenetrable, I do
not understand the
financials… the
second is, we like
First Solar, and
First Solar has been
no slouch… at $184
up from $85, so I do
not think that we
have hurt you… but I
cannot be in those
Chinese speculative
plays, I sold my FXI
for
my charitable trust,
ActionAlertsPlus.com,
it has had such a
run I felt like I
was being greedy…
and bulls make
money, bears make
money, and hogs get
slaughtered.
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[verbatim
recap]
[end of segment]
Read Jim's next Segment
here
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Read Jim's next Segment
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