Opening Segment #3:
'Biting Into Spec'
Friday, May 22, 2009
 

Jim's
rating on
this stock

STOCK
SYMBOL

Closing
price that
day

Full Company Name

CKR

7.73

CKE Restaurants Inc. (CKR)



Jim:     Sometimes, you want to own, not the best company in an industry... but the best of the worst... something that might deserve "the worst-of-breed" title, frankly... but just because it's a laggard... not because it's an out-and-out loser...

I believe worst-of-breed names can make great speculative stocks, as long as the fundamentals are improving, as they typically have the most room to improve... and I think I've got it...

Oh yeah... for Speculative Friday, I've got the worst-of-breed winner, right now in the fast food game... It's a $7 and change speculative company that, if you were to compare it to its competitors on virtually every measure that we use to judge stocks, would probably come in dead last... except it might have more upside than just about any other fast food stock...

If you're willing to take the risk, I'm talking
CKE Restaurants Inc. (CKR)...

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Market Results today:

Dow:  - 15

Nasdaq:  - 3

S&P 500:  - 1

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Friday, May 22, 2009
(Cont'd from above)...

Jim (cont'd):


... which you know - are you ready, skee-daddy... as Carl's Jr., Hardee's, Green Burrito and Red Burrito...

You can out for yourself and get a "thick burger" for less than $6 bucks... or, for less than $2 more, you can grab a share of the parent company...

For the last two years, as CKR did the moonwalk down from the low $20s, to the single digits, the burger was the better buy... as the stock was way more likely to cause stomach pains or vomiting... and that's really saying something... because I probably wouldn't go into a Carl's Jr. or a Hardee's... I would conceivably eat there if they stuck up a McDonald's sign in front of it, and tricked me...

But, just because I don't like the product, that doesn't mean I can't recognize opportunity when I see it in a stock... Remember, this is one of the most important takeaways from Cramer's Mad Money... There is no accounting for taste...

CKR is in what's probably the fourth inning of a turnaround... with the worst thing that happens is that it goes into extra innings...

It's operating margin... which is the percentage of every dollar of sales that's left over as profit before a company pays interest and debt and the tax man... has improved from 3.2% in 2003, to 5.7% in 2008, with 71% of its 3,116 locations franchised.

I know this isn't what you typically think of when we do Speculation Friday... I know, you're looking for a tech stock, a biotech stock... not a greasy spoon...

Even with its improvements, CKR lags well behind the rest of the industry...

SONC has 80% of its stores franchised, and its operating margin is 17.9%, with slightly more locations than CKR.

Burger King Corporation (BKC)'s operating margin... and I don't like that stock at all... is 14.5%... with 90% of its U.S. units franchised.

And even
Jack in the Box Inc. (JACK), which suffers from some of the same ailments as CKR, has a higher operating margin of 7.5%.

At Hardee's, CKR has been able to grow average unit volumes by 26.2% in five years. That's pretty good. But you know, it still comes in dead last among the rest of the cohort.

So why recommend CKR when it seems that, no matter how hard it tries, it just can't catch up?...

Well that's because many of the negatives that made this company, and its stock, such losers, I think, are about to turn positive...

Why do I think that?...

CKR has been getting killed because of its overexposure to California... 68% of its Carl's Jr. (stores) are located there. California's high unemployment and crummy economy - even compared to the rest of the country - has been weighing on the business. But I've got to tell you, I think, as part of my housing bottom call, the state has already shown signs of improvement.

What else?...

CKR's same-store sales, or comps as we refer to them, started to weaken, and remained weak, since September of 2008... which beautifully means that, starting next quarter, CKR will have "easy comparisons"... meaning that it's lapped the bad results... what its numbers going forward are being compared to... Remember, we look at it year over year... weak numbers are going to be on against great numbers... or at least better numbers... And that, you know, is a genuine improvement? Well don't think like that...

The money managers who want to see positive comps really don't care. Neither should you. That should send CKR's stock higher, even if it might seem like some sort of slight of hand.

The same things that apply to the big restaurant chains - the better ones - are just as true for Carl's or Hardee's... It benefits from the facts that gasoline prices are lower year over year... and don't fret that gasoline prices are up 20 cents... I mean, it's down $2 bucks from a year ago... More people are going out. It's helped by the truly weak competitors... the ones who either couldn't stay solvent or expand... no longer in the playing field... a little less competition.

And just as we analyze any other national chain, this speculative one has plenty of room to grow, both inside the U.S. and the rest of the world. It could double its U.S. presense before it comes close to saturation. Texas alone... let's use that example... Carl's Jr. has 17 units. That's an enormous opportunity. 425 Burger Kings there... 584 Jack in the Box's... 398 Arby's... 440 Taco Bells... That's a few hundred more locations for CKR easily. It could handle fistfuls of Carl's... and a few Carl's more...

Oh by the way... an accidental high-yielder... 3% (dividend per share payout)... Not many speculative stocks pay you while you wait... This one's going to do that...


The bottom line...

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The Bottom Line!:      While I am not an aficionado of particular kinds of fast food, I still know it when I eat it... and I wouldn't eat it at Carl's Jr. or Hardee's... The $6 thick burger? No way... But the $7-and-change stock?... That I like. Remember, the ticker is CKE Restaurants Inc. (CKR). I think, right now, it makes a lot of sense for speculation.

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