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Opening Segment #3: |
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'Biting
Into Spec' |
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Friday,
May 22, 2009 |
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Jim's
rating on
this stock |
STOCK
SYMBOL |
Closing
price that
day |
Full Company Name |
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CKR |
7.73 |
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CKE
Restaurants
Inc. (CKR)
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Jim:
Sometimes, you want
to own, not the best
company in an
industry... but the
best of the worst...
something that might
deserve "the
worst-of-breed"
title, frankly...
but just because
it's a laggard...
not because it's an
out-and-out loser...
I believe
worst-of-breed names
can make great
speculative stocks,
as long as the
fundamentals are
improving, as they
typically have the
most room to
improve... and I
think I've got it...
Oh yeah... for
Speculative Friday,
I've got the
worst-of-breed
winner, right now in
the fast food
game... It's a $7
and change
speculative company
that, if you were to
compare it to its
competitors on
virtually every
measure that we use
to judge stocks,
would probably come
in dead last...
except it might have
more upside than
just about any other
fast food stock...
If you're willing to
take the risk, I'm
talking
CKE Restaurants
Inc. (CKR)...
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See comments continued below...
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Friday,
May 22, 2009
(Cont'd from
above)...
Jim
(cont'd):
... which you know -
are you ready,
skee-daddy... as
Carl's Jr., Hardee's,
Green Burrito and
Red Burrito...
You can out for
yourself and get a
"thick burger" for
less than $6
bucks... or, for
less than $2 more,
you can grab a share
of the parent
company...
For the last two
years, as CKR did
the moonwalk down
from the low $20s,
to the single
digits, the burger
was the better
buy... as the stock
was way more likely
to cause stomach
pains or vomiting...
and that's really
saying something...
because I probably
wouldn't go into a
Carl's Jr. or a
Hardee's... I would
conceivably eat
there if they stuck
up a McDonald's sign
in front of it, and
tricked me...
But, just because I
don't like the
product, that
doesn't mean I can't
recognize
opportunity when I
see it in a stock...
Remember, this is
one of the most
important takeaways
from Cramer's Mad
Money... There is no
accounting for
taste...
CKR is in what's
probably the fourth
inning of a
turnaround... with
the worst thing that
happens is that it
goes into extra
innings...
It's operating
margin... which is
the percentage of
every dollar of
sales that's left
over as profit
before a company
pays interest and
debt and the tax
man... has improved
from 3.2% in 2003,
to 5.7% in 2008,
with 71% of its
3,116 locations
franchised.
I know this isn't
what you typically
think of when we do
Speculation
Friday... I know,
you're looking for a
tech stock, a
biotech stock... not
a greasy spoon...
Even with its
improvements, CKR
lags well behind the
rest of the
industry...
SONC has 80% of its
stores franchised,
and its operating
margin is 17.9%,
with slightly more
locations than CKR.
Burger King Corporation (BKC)'s
operating margin...
and I don't like
that stock at all...
is 14.5%... with 90%
of its U.S. units
franchised.
And even
Jack in the Box Inc. (JACK),
which suffers from
some of the same
ailments as CKR, has
a higher operating
margin of 7.5%.
At Hardee's, CKR has
been able to grow
average unit volumes
by 26.2% in five
years. That's pretty
good. But you know,
it still comes in
dead last among the
rest of the cohort.
So why recommend CKR
when it seems that,
no matter how hard
it tries, it just
can't catch up?...
Well that's because
many of the
negatives that made
this company, and
its stock, such
losers, I think, are
about to turn
positive...
Why do I think
that?...
CKR has been getting
killed because of
its overexposure to
California... 68% of
its Carl's Jr.
(stores) are located
there. California's
high unemployment
and crummy economy -
even compared to the
rest of the country
- has been weighing
on the business. But
I've got to tell
you, I think, as
part of my housing
bottom call, the
state has already
shown signs of
improvement.
What else?...
CKR's same-store
sales, or comps as
we refer to them,
started to weaken,
and remained weak,
since September of
2008... which
beautifully means
that, starting next
quarter, CKR will
have "easy
comparisons"...
meaning that it's
lapped the bad
results... what its
numbers going
forward are being
compared to...
Remember, we look at
it year over year...
weak numbers are
going to be on
against great
numbers... or at
least better
numbers... And that,
you know, is a
genuine improvement?
Well don't think
like that...
The money managers
who want to see
positive comps
really don't care.
Neither should you.
That should send
CKR's stock higher,
even if it might
seem like some sort
of slight of hand.
The same things that
apply to the big
restaurant chains -
the better ones -
are just as true for
Carl's or Hardee's...
It benefits from the
facts that gasoline
prices are lower
year over year...
and don't fret that
gasoline prices are
up 20 cents... I
mean, it's down $2
bucks from a year
ago... More people
are going out. It's
helped by the truly
weak competitors...
the ones who either
couldn't stay
solvent or expand...
no longer in the
playing field... a
little less
competition.
And just as we
analyze any other
national chain, this
speculative one has
plenty of room to
grow, both inside
the U.S. and the
rest of the world.
It could double its
U.S. presense before
it comes close to
saturation. Texas
alone... let's use
that example...
Carl's Jr. has 17
units. That's an
enormous
opportunity. 425
Burger Kings
there... 584 Jack in
the Box's... 398
Arby's... 440 Taco
Bells... That's a
few hundred more
locations for CKR
easily. It could
handle fistfuls of
Carl's... and a few
Carl's more...
Oh by the way... an
accidental
high-yielder... 3%
(dividend per share
payout)... Not many
speculative stocks
pay you while you
wait... This one's
going to do that...
The bottom line...
▼ ▼
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The
Bottom Line!:
While I am not an
aficionado of
particular kinds of
fast food, I still
know it when I eat
it... and I wouldn't
eat it at Carl's Jr.
or Hardee's... The
$6 thick burger? No
way... But the
$7-and-change
stock?... That I
like. Remember, the
ticker is
CKE Restaurants
Inc. (CKR).
I think, right now,
it makes a lot of
sense for
speculation.
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[verbatim
recap]
[end of segment]
Read Jim's next Segment
here
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