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Tuesday,
June 2, 2009
(Cont'd from
above)...
Jim (cont'd):
I do not mind
scathing the tax,
even of the
Oboma-nan variety…
as I say worse
things about myself
while I am drinking
cheap scotch on the
dirty linoleum floor
after the show every
night… but I worry…
I worry about a
world where it is
acceptable to be
consistently… and I
mean consistently
incorrect… and where
people can blightly
assert that those of
us who have gotten
it right are in
truth wrong… there
are entire websites,
a whole darn cottage
industry devoted to
dissecting every
single move that I
make… sights that
track practically
every word out of my
mouth… so it is a
matter of very
public record that I
said to sell 20% of
your portfolio at
Dow 11,000... and
then in a much
aligned appearance
on The Today Show
said that you had to
take all of the
money out that you
may need for a major
purchase over the
next 5 years when
the Dow was at
10,000... it is also
a matter of public
record that in early
March I said it was
time to wade back
in… because the
downside was too
minimal not to buy
with the Dow in the
mid 6,000’s… it just
wasn’t enough
downside.
Dodging a 40%
decline is good
news, not bad news,
where I am from… and
I think that it
should not be held
against me, if I
said that for the
next 5 years… if I
then told you that
the coast was clear
down 40%, if you
wanted to get back
in… of course, I
have been lambasted
for both calls…
people say that I
was an alarmist…
someone shooting
fire in a crowded
theater… who
irresponsibly caused
people to panic with
my get out call at
Dow 10,000... and by
people who refused
to recognize that I
went positive… and
told you that I told
you that it was time
to get back in near
the bottom… who said
that I did not get
you back in… that my
sell call left you
high and dry… I went
over it over and
over again… I even
repeated it with my
friend Doug Cass,
who writes with me
at RealMoney at
TheStreet.com,
called the bottom…
and I am all in… I
said it night after
night after night…
the gall of these
people.
I only bring this
up, because I stare
at these two
numbers… the sell at
10,000... forget the
11,000 call, lets go
with Dow 10,000...
when it still made
sense to get out…
and the buy at 6500,
when it made sense
to get back in… but
they are both
totally ignored by
the perma-bears… who
constantly tell you
that this rally does
not count… because,
of course, it is
happening in a bear
market… does not
count… I guess they
cannot give any
credit for going
positive… because
the points are all
illusory.
And on the other
side, there are
people who endlessly
talk about if you
stayed in good
quality stocks, my
sell call was nuts…
and you would have
been fine… excuse
me, what is good
quality, what does
that mean… when you
say that to the
American people they
think Pfizer and
Citigroup… they
think Merck and
Intel… they think
Mr. Softie, yeah
Microsoft… yeah,
that would have been
great… as long as
just fine means lose
lots of money or
make nothing… hey,
now that is a game
plan.
I am just appalled
that there is no
accountability for
the people who have
kept you out of this
now monstrous bull
run… highest point
in 7 months today…
if I can get
attacked for being
right… why can’t
they be criticized
when they are wrong…
these people are
never, ever going to
admit that they
missed Goldman Sachs
at $50, or Morgan
Stanley at $12...
they are proud to
round trip anything
up or down.. . they
simply will not
admit that they have
been dead wrong…
they will not do it…
never… and even
worse… they do not
have to… because
there is no one who
is willing to call
them out on it other
than me… when you do
hold them
accountable as I am
doing… it just opens
you up for just an
amount of abuse that
is intolerable… the
risk reward stinks
calling people out…
and I understand why
no one else will do
it.
So why do I do it… I
have some theories…
here is one theory…
I am from
Philadelphia… city
of heroes and
villains… it is a
city where you get
called out when you
are wrong… and a lot
of times you get
called out when you
are right… I come
from a city, where I
used to work as a
vendor at Veteran
Stadium that booed
its own ball players
when they struck
out… even though
they had hit three
home runs at the
three previous at
bats… it is a city
where the need to
call people out is
part of the culture…
whether you are
waiting for a cheese
steak at Gino’s… or
you are questioning,
why don’t they fix
that darn crack in
the Liberty Bell…
alright, that is one
reason.
I got another one…
if you don’t care…
if you don’t have
skim to game… it is
all about nothing…
the perma-bears who
have kept you out of
this amazing run
simply do not care…
it is not real to
them… what do they
care… they are
teaching… or they
are like coming on
TV, not allowed to
have stocks… that is
why the perma-bears
are praised for
being rigorous and
saying what they
believe in… it is
conventional wisdom
that they might
eventually turn out
to be right… and
never admitted so
far that they have
been nothing but
wrong… and if you
are an investor,
that has
consequences to be
wrong… hey, if you
are always bullish…
then you can just
endlessly say buying
opportunities… for
high quality stocks…
some how both
positions are
unassailable… so I
cringe when I hear
about the rally in a
bear market… which
is the single most
asked question, in
every paper,
website, radio, TV,
does not matter… I
cringe because that
gives the argument
credence… then it is
entirely possible
that the whole run
that I have lived
thru from 1300 when
I started trading to
14,000... maybe that
has been a rally in
a bear market… who
is to say otherwise.
Or about the other
side, if you bought
high quality stocks
at 14,000 and the
market went to
6500... hey, that is
okay… it is all part
of a great bull
market… enjoy,
fabulous… cheaper by
the dozen… enough… I
cannot take it any
more… I cannot stand
back and listen to
this bear market
rally clap trap… and
the complete absence
of any kind of
rigor… I can’t let
the perma-bears tell
you that it is time
to worry about
higher mortgage
rates… even as we
just got a fabulous
Penny Home Sales
number that screams
housing bottom… and
the lower prices
cancel out any rise
in the still
historically low
mortgage rates… not
to mention the
$8,000 credit… look,
say it with me… it
is a huge bull
market rally… you
need to know that…
you need to know it
because it looks
like… well, right
now there is a
gazillion new bank
offerings… so we are
probably headed for
some weakness in
that leadership
group… we might have
another mass
strapping event as
people ignore the
housing bottom,
disregard the
Chinese string,
castigate the
President for just
about anything… and
basically say, count
me out… told you so.
Here is the bottom
line…
▼ ▼
▼ ▼
▼
 The Bottom Line!:
When you hear this
nonsense… you have
got to steal
yourself Ulysses…
any pull back will
be a sell off in a
bull market… and
don’t worry, I am
willing to take the
heat for being
right… but oh Lordy,
I hate to imagine
what would have
happened if I had
been wrong.
Alright, the chart
shows strength in
tech… I say do not
settle for the broad
view of an ETF…
[verbatim recap]
▼ ▼
▼ ▼
▼
Jim went on after
this segment to take
questions from
callers, and
responded with his
comments...
```````````````````````````````````````````````````````````````````````````````````
Q:
Everyone is
expecting the new
home sales and
construction to
bounce back. And
even if they do, I
want to know if
there is value.
Because I think
people are going to
be focused on
renovating and
adding on to
existing homes. Do
you think there is
value in that sector
of the stocks, like
Val Spar, or CRH?
Jim:
Great question, now
first of all, one of
the things that I
have been called…
and I have been
going with this
housing bottom, and
I have to tell you
that it looks like I
am going to be late,
judging by the data
that we saw today…
but here is the
point, I do not see
a renaissance in
house building… the
matter of fact, the
reason that the
reason why this
bottom is occurring
is that they are not
going to build any
houses… we are down
to 400,000... what
we built when we
were at 1/3 of this
country… more
importantly, I agree
with you… if there
are going to be
fix-ups to get rid
of foreclosures… go
into the Lowe’s
conference call,
they will tell you
that that is big
business for them
because it is
cosmetic… and the
cosmetic stuff is at
Lowe’s, it is not
heavy contract… I
like Lowe’s… Val
Spar not that great
a quarter… Sherwin
Williams, decent
quarter… I think
that that is a
better play.
```````````````````````````````````````````````````````````````````````````````````
Q:
My question is about
GM. They are in
protection, will
they make the 60 to
90 days deadline
that they are
looking at? And when
will they turn
profitable?
Jim:
Okay, GM… and I do
not talk politics on
the show… but let me
make it very clear,
I told people to
sell that stock over
and over again… and
now it is at .60
cents… people could
say, well why does
it trade… well,
because if we had
someone, if we had
referees when it
came to stocks,
obviously it would
not… because this is
not as rigorous or
important as NBA,
although the
referees there are
questionable, but
certainly not as
important as the
NFL… because it is
only your money… the
NFL happens to
represent a great
game… now, here is
what you need to
know about GM… it is
not meant to be a
company… we keep
hearing well is it
going to work… it is
a jobs program for
heavens sake…
everyone should see
that… it is a way to
keep unemployment
from going too much
over 10%… it is not
a place to make
cars… it is just an
opportunity to put
people to work
rather than having
them be at home…
bizarrely, I think
that is right… I do
not want
unemployment to go
to 11% or 12% in
this country… we are
going to have to
find jobs for those
people… might as
well have them make
some cars… it is bad
enough that we are
going to have a lot
of people
unemployed… so I do
not think that it is
a plan to make
money.. I think that
it is just a big,
giant WBA for people
to make cars.
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[verbatim
recap]
[end of segment]
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