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Opening Segment #3: |
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'Ode
To Joy?'
CEO
Interview
with
Mike
Sutherin,
CEO
Joy Global |
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Thursday,
June 4, 2009 |
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Jim's
rating on
this stock |
STOCK
SYMBOL |
Closing
price that
day |
Full Company Name |
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JOYG |
38.36 |
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Jim:
Yesterday
Cramer-fave
mining
equipment
maker,
Joy Global (JOYG),
reported the
kind of
dynamite
quarter that
is so good,
you wonder
how could it
even be
possible in
this
miserable
environment…
the stock
has more
than
doubled, up
119% after I
last
recommended
the stock
after an
interview
with Mike
Sutherlin…
Joy Global’s
CEO, on
March 4th
the stock
was trading
at $17.55...
it has had a
big move…
but don’t
forget that
it is still
off 57% from
its high…
and I think
that there
could be a
lot more
upside now
that
commodities
have taken
off… even if
the higher
prices are
mostly
because of
cut backs in
production
last year,
reduced
metal stock
piles, and
because of
hedge funds
artificially
bidding up
prices…
those are
all the
reasons for
the
commodity
squeeze… but
it does not
matter.
Now, there
was nothing
artificial
about Joy
Global’s
quarter… it
was a thing
of palpitude…
the
companies
earnings
came in at
$1.17, that
beat the
streets
expectations
by .28
cents… we
call that
where I am
from, a
monster
beat…
revenues
came in
about $923M…
that is a
fistful of
dollars and
a few
dollars
more, $52M
more to be
exact, than
the analysts
were
expecting…
but on top
of these
fabulous
results,
management
seemed like
it was
trying to
cant down
expectations…
it painted a
cautious
picture of
the future..
with back
log risk of
$525M, or
about 26% of
Joy Global’s
peak
backlog…
where they
had
originally
expected to
be just 15%,
hey not so
bad.
According to
Joy Global,
coal
production
in the US
could be
down 9%…
this is
actually
unbelievably
dire, it is
incredible…
in terms of
where it
would be… it
really did
hurt them…
as it gets
67% of its
revenues
from
manufacturing
and
servicing
the coal
mining
equipment…
the company
also thinks
that China
is stock
piling
commodities
right now…
which means
that digging
will
eventually
slow down,
leaving the
less demand
for the
equipment
that Joy
Global
produces…
but I find
it hard to
see the
Chinese
exposure, as
anything but
positive…
given that
China’s
driving
demand for
commodities
right now…
and China
will
eventually
be the
country to
lead the
rest of the
world out of
the economic
doldrums in
its
recovery.
And when you
look at Joy
Global’s
quarter…
that is what
you should
keep in
mind… if it
can generate
these
numbers in
an
incredibly
horrible
environment…
just imagine
how well it
will do when
things get
better… the
chart, for
those of you
who cannot
get enough
of the
technicals,
is brimming
with
positive
signs… thank
you to Bob
Leigh, one
of these
guys who I
want to try
to
incorporate
into our
technicians…
at least to
the people
who
subscribe to
the mumbo
jumbo,
chicken
gumbo of
charts… the
buyers of
Joy Global
are not
going away….
as you saw
today… the
quarter was
fabulous…
the stock
has soared…
the stock is
up $2 today…
management
wanted to
make a
cautious
case for
investors.
Now, my gut
is telling
me that they
are just
being
conservative…
and keeping
the bar low…
but I tell
you, in the
conference
call they
really did
make me
scared… in
case we
really
should be
concerned,
why don’t we
dig a little
deeper… lets
hear from
the horses
mouth, Mike
Sutherlin
the CEO of
Joy Global,
a guy I love
on this
show…
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See comments continued below...
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Thursday,
June 4, 2009
(Cont'd from
above)...
Jim:
Mr.
Sutherlin welcome
back to Mad Money...
Mike:
Thank you Jim,
good to be here.
Jim:
I have got
to tell you… I read
the quarter, I read
the release, I read
about the numbers,
and then I listen to
the conference call…
and by the time the
conference call is
over, I am saying
why the heck, would
I ever want to own a
stock of a company
where the CEO is
basically saying
that we are no where
near trough… trough
will not happen to
2011... there could
be a lot of
cancellations
coming… China could
just be a blip on
the radar screen…
and the US is
falling apart… why,
why, why did you
have to put such a
negative spin on
everything that
happened?
Mike:
Well, I think
that by nature I am
going to be a little
bit conservative.
But the reality is,
that the positive
indicators that we
are seeing in the
economy, the
positive indicators
that we are seeing
in our industry, are
still very, very
early. And we have a
business that has
got back logs that
will continue to
carry us another
year or more. And as
a result of that, we
see a declining
business over the
next year and a
half, if we do not
get improvement in
the market. The
signs that we see
are very positive,
the economic signs
are starting to
improve. China’s
demand is up for
sure. And I think
that it is an
aggressive buy, but
I think that they
will sustain a
positive growth in
China. And that will
be positive for the
commodities market.
But all of those
signs are still
very, very early and
I am reluctant to go
out on a line and
say that the
commodities market
are turning right
now. So we continue
to be cautious.
Manage our business
for all possible
outcomes. I do
believe that the
markets ahead will
continue to be
volatile. So we want
to be in position to
handle a continued
weak market if it
stays that way. We
have proven our
ability to handle a
good market when it
comes. So I am not
worried about our
ability to respond
up. So our position
is, positive
indicators, still
cautious.
Jim:
Alright, one
of the things that I
think took everybody
by surprise is that
you had said that
you might be able to
do this on our show
last time… is how
much less it costs
to make your
equipment… and how
much more you saved,
in terms of what we
talk about on our
show… I always try
to get our viewers
to understand the
concept of the gross
margin, what is left
after you sold..
talk about how you
were able to bring
your cost down
dramatically, and
make so much more
money from the sales
that you had, than
we ever thought was
possible.
Mike:
In our reported
second quarter, we
had the benefit of
several things. One,
certainly, a better
supply chain
management and we
have gotten pretty
significant
reductions out of
our supply chain.
Those numbers are on
average right now,
in the middle single
digits. They have
the potential to
move into the double
digit reductions.
But we have also got
the benefit of very
strong operational
excellence programs
that we have been
running in our
business for the
last year and a
half, or two years.
We have got the
benefit of very,
very stringent cost
controls. And we
also, a year ago we
were shipping
contracts that we
booked in 2005,
2006, 2007, now we
are starting to book
contracts that we
placed in our back
log in 2008. So that
has helped us as
well. So, the
margins are really a
combination of a
number of things.
All of which I
believe are
sustainable and will
continue to get
improvement out of
them.
Jim:
That is
terrific… because
the key in my
thinking about the
stock, is that that
is not done, the
cost improvements
are not done… so you
have confirmed that.
Now I think our
viewers, because I
have always
associated… when
people say, China is
getting strong… I
say go buy Joy
Global… I want you
to contrast in a
boiled down fashion,
from what you talked
about in the
conference call,
which is pretty
amazing… the
differences right
now in China and the
United States for
your business.
Mike:
Well, China is a
market that is
coming back. They
are importing record
levels of
commodities. And I
can give you names
of 5 or 6 different
commodities that are
at record level for
their imports. And
they are preparing
for the strong
impact of their
stimulus program in
China. In the US, we
are still working
down our production
levels to match the
level of demand for
coal primarily in
the US. The metals
markets have come
down dramatically
because we have
older, higher cost
copper and iron ore
mines in the US. So
the US is still
adjusting to the
realities of a
weaker market.
Internationally we
are seeing that the
production cuts have
come thru, had there
effects and now we
are starting to see
the recovery in the
international
markets. So
different phases
between the two
markets,
dramatically
different.
Jim:
I was
wondering, would you
do the same… I know
that you did your
conference call just
now… but I look at
what has happened
with commodities in
the last 4 weeks…
and everything that
you have talked
about, whether it be
from the
cancellations or
delays for orders
from machines that
would have been
involved with shale
to oil… or whether
it be the price of
coal, which I think
will now be lifted
by the price of oil…
isn’t it true that
if the commodities
rally that has just
happened in the last
month is sustained,
then your
projections will be
too low?
Mike:
Well certainly,
we hope that they
are too low, that is
for sure. But we are
seeing positive
signs in the
industry. The
industry cut back,
globally the
industry cut back
very dramatically
and very quickly to
keep supply in
balance with demand.
As a result, we
really have very
little excess supply
in the industry
today. Less excess
supply than we have
had in any other
economic down turn.
Jim:
See, that
was shocking to me.
Because this
downturn is probably
the worst since the
’30’s… yet somehow
this downturn was
shallower for you
than all the last
few downturns… and I
wonder if that isn’t
again the China
factor, or if that
isn’t the fact that
basically you guys
are the only guys in
town.
Mike:
Well, we see
just outside of
China, we see the
industrial sector in
the global economy
having reduced their
production levels
with a relentless
effort in order to
get inventories
down. So the level
of industrial
production today is
lower than the level
of current demand.
And the destocking
efforts are coming
to an end and we
will see some
improvement in
industrial
production which
will help
commodities as well.
So, it is not all
China, certainly
China is a big part
of it, but it is not
all China.
Jim:
Excellent,
Mike Sutherlin
again, always
telling it straight.
You have made a lot
of money for our
viewers. I think you
so much.
Mike:
Thank you, Jim.
It is good to be on
again.
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Jim's comments
AFTER the interview:
Alright, Mike
Sutherlin President
and CEO of
Joy Global (JOYG),
you heard it… here
is what is going on…
let me give you a
quick, if you had to
do the subtext… I am
being very
conservative… Cramer
thinks that we are
going to do even
better… maybe he is
right… I know that I
am right… this stock
can still be bought
here.
[verbatim recap]
[end of segment]
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