Monday, June 8, 2009
(Cont'd from above)...

Jim (cont'd):   

A rally in a bear market… shut up… please… to me these are case closed numbers… not “Cold Case” number… a show on some network that I have never seen… yet the nonsense continues… and the skepticism is endless… there is never any stipulation that anything that has happened so far this year could be for real… you never even get a wink, let alone a nod toward the reality of how fabulous this bull market is in the NASDAQ… so perhaps tonight, it may pay to go over some of the key components of this NASDAQ move… and let you decide whether they are just rallies in a bear market… or if this whole move just might be for real… and that the people who are saying that it is a rally in a bear market, should say with me… shut up.

I like to be constructive on down days like today… even if it was just a fractional decline that the NASDAQ experienced… and I think nothing could be more constructive than considering and debunking this bear market within a bull market… bull market within a bear market… is that what it is… is that what it is supposed to be.

Let’s consider the ten household tech names that have been really behind a lot of this move… and let’s pose the question of those… whether they have really just been rallies in a bear market… or maybe, just maybe, they are not simply part of one of the most important bull market explosions in the history of equities… Apple is up 69% for the year… that should not have been that much of a hardship to discover, should it… maybe we ought to give the bear market rally people the benefit of the doubt… and just assume basic arithmetic is beyond their kin… we get the price cuts today that we are looking for on the iPhone… and we also got a little needed profit taking… but lets face it, the rally in Apple, I say that it is for real.

Google… how is Google doing this year… how about the fact that it is up 43% for the year… another hidden great gem, a diamond in the rough… perhaps a purloin letter… the web has continued to take share in the declining advertising market… and that seems darn bullish to me… and I have heard over and over again that the quarter is good… nobody is even trying to claim otherwise… rally in a bear market.

How about Amazon… it is up 68% for the year… shocker… the company took huge share from the bricks and mortar crowd when gasoline went to $4... it has not looked back… the market share never went away… it has been increasing… clearly a rally in a bear market.

How about Cisco, which MCTAAP owns… it is gained 21.9% this year… no doubt because John Chambers, the CEO, made it clear that business has bottomed… even though no one in the press or any of the managers who come on believe him… except, of course, the buyers of the stocks who love it.

Alright, lets drill down… here is another one that maybe the bears have missed… it is called Research In Motion… new products and good sales have driven the Blackberry maker 102% this year… that is clearly a rally in a bull market… isn’t it?… why have people missed this gain… well in the last year the company missed the numbers… first miss in a long time… and it jeered the momentum players out of the stock… until the last quarter, which of course was better than expected… now they are all back.

How about Baidu… a lot of people do not consider this a NASDAQ 100 name, but it is a big driver… it is up 133% for the year… we know China is on fire… and this is the most legitimate Chinese play in the NASDAQ.

Adobe… everyone still uses Adobe… everyone still knows the brand... and everyone knew that this one got beaten down… did you nail the 37% gain this year… were you afraid that it was bear market rally… was it that hard to miss… most people did because they were too focused on their animal totems… and not focusing on the business… or the action.

How about Express Scripts… it is not thought of as a strong stock because everything healthcare is so hated… however, this one is a cost cutter… it maintains its halo, halo, halo… which is up 17% for the year.

Hey, about something none tech… Joy Global, the heaviest industrial late cycle company in the world… a maker of mining equipment… remember Mike and his steam shovel last Friday… not exactly something that we expect to work in a recession… demand from China has ignited the stock… only real stimulus package on earth… it is up 74% this year… a gain that is nothing to sneer at.

Qualcomm, another AAPMCT name, legal settlements, strong 3G, soon 4G sales… these all add up to some amazing performance… up 25% for the year… I think that it will continue, as cell phone sales are at long last starting to pick up.

Now, believe me I could have picked a dozen more big winners in the NASDAQ… those were just some of the biggest contributors to last weeks move in the index… one that continued today, before giving back up the big game… as part of mutual fund Monday, where the money pours into the hottest funds over the weekend… and they toss it to the NASDAQ’s weight immediately… I think that right at the end, because of the Chrysler decision, which was bad for business, NASDAQ gave up a little…. maybe what the problem is is that people think about some other NASDAQ stocks… they think about Oracle, only up 18%… maybe the are disappointed by Microsoft, that is only up 13%… or Intel, which is really only up a little better than 8%.

I think that you have to be thinking about the others that I have just described… and frankly marvel that anyone in his or her right mind, would call this rally a rally in a bear market… given that performance… if anything I would be trying to figure out whether it is just a regular bull market… or a super bull market… I would be worried about how powerful the bull is, rather than worrying about whether this is just a rally in a bear market… the most important question I would be asking about the move, if I were just doing regular TV rather than Mad Money with Jim Cramer… could this be one of the strongest bull markets ever… and after that list of stocks, and those percentage gains… how could the answer be anything other than a resounding yes.

Here is the bottom line…

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The Bottom Line!:     Unless you are living in a different alternative universe… where bulls are confused with bears… (shows a prop made of bulls and bears combined)… this is truly what people say all day… this is the so called rally in a bull market… that unless you confuse with bears that have horns… the facts are telling you to embrace and praise and celebrate the Nasdaq… not denigrate this move with silly questions like is this possibly just a bear market rally… how much does that cost you… to hear that question over and over again… nope, to me there is no possibility that it is anything other than a bull market… and perhaps one of the greatest in the last decade.

[verbatim recap]

[end of segment]

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