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Opening Segment #3: |
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'Off
The Charts' |
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Tuesday,
June 9, 2009 |
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Jim's
rating on
this stock |
STOCK
SYMBOL |
Closing
price that
day |
Full Company Name |
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EBAY |
17.71 |
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Jim:
Let me start off
this particular
segment by reading
from one of the
hundreds…I am not
kidding, literally
hundreds of
nominations, write
ins, draftees, that
you have sent us to
pin up on the most
important Wall, now
that the Berlin Wall
has gone down… I am
talking about
the Wall of Shame..
this one goes
Viewer Email:
Hey Jim,
Without a doubt John
Donahoe, the CEO of
eBay Inc. (EBAY),
should be on
the Wall of Shame.
Spend 15 minutes
reading the
discussion forums on
just about any
ecommerce oriented
web site and you
will see a very high
level of
dissatisfaction with
eBay and Mr. Donahoe
in particular.
Richard
Alright, this is a
classic example of
complaining users…
they do not like the
experience of using
eBay… but that does
not mean that the
CEO is awful… and it
does not mean that
the stock is bad…
see eBay the stock,
unlike eBay the
virtual auction
house, is not a user
experience story… it
is a stock buyers
turn around
experience… what
matters in a turn
around is not making
the experience as
pleasant as
possible… the stock
is down 40% since
Donahoe took over
March 31, 2008...
S&P 500 is down
28.8%… okay, that is
pretty bad… while it
is not the kind of
loss that anyone
would want to take…
especially when
competitor Amazon is
up 22% in the same
period… but Amazon
is a unique
situation...
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See comments continued below...
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Jim's Charitable
Trust Alert -
Just happened:
* Just
BOUGHT new bank stock:
Bank of
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Tuesday,
June 9, 2009
(Cont'd from
above)...
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▼
Jim:
I do not think that
eBay’s performance
is awful enough to
merit giving Donahoe
the ultimate
business dishonor…
his own likeness on
the Wall of Shame…
more important he
has only been there
a year… and the
company that he
inherited was
falling apart… which
thinks that I think
that if Donahoe was
to spend some time
sharpening his golf
game on the links on
Pebble Beach… I
think that the stock
would actually go
down… not up… so
that is a true Wall
of Shame
disqualifier… how
about the big money,
what do they think…
and the
shareholders… would
they stay, or would
they go now… on that
score, it is much
more important to
know what Wall
Street thinks…
especially the big
institutional money
managers, who do so
much trading, and
control so much
stock… it is much
more important than
what the users
think… that is why
tonight we are going
to go Off the Charts
to see what we can
learn about how the
street views eBay…
so you do not just
take our word for
keeping the man off
of the Wall of
Shame.
Even though I do not
think that you
should ever base
your decisions on
technical analysis,
on looking at the
charts… it is worth
knowing what the
chartists think…
because they can
look at the action
and they find clues
that help us
understand how the
big boys could treat
a stock… what could
we learn about
eBay’s stock right
now… alright, Dan
Fitzpatrick, one of
our go to
technicians, Dan
writes with me at
RealMoney.com,
part of
TheStreet.com where
I am chairman… you
might have seen him
on Fast Money today,
and that thing that
they midday… he
thinks that eBay’s
chart is signaling
that the stock will
basically do
nothing… that there
is not a lot of
institutional
interest in here…
see, he just thinks
that it is kind of
flat lining.
According to
Fitzpatrick, eBay is
consolidating… it is
moving sideways
after a big jump in
April… the stock has
had higher highs,
and higher lows…
both signs that they
buyers are more
interested… but they
happened on
declining volume…
see when you look at
the declining
volume, that is kind
of like a polygraph,
the lower volume the
less they believe
that the action is
telling the truth…
Fitzpatrick’s is
mildly positive on
eBay… he does not
see anything in the
chart that the stock
is about to go
higher or lower… but
if the stock falls
below its 200 day
moving average, a
technical measure of
a stocks long term
trajectory, which is
about $17 right now…
he thinks that it
could drop to
$15.85... so that
would be a bad, bad
miss… I do not think
that is going to
happen.
Now, Fitzpatrick
thinks, this is one
of the things that
he says, the move
indicated a up trend
or a down trend, a
down trend would be
about to begin if it
broke down there… we
may have gone off
the charts… but the
charts according to
Fitzpatrick, they
are on the fence…
this is an actual on
the fence chart… it
does not tell you
which way it is
going to go… it says
that it could move
higher or lower.
So, now we have to
resort to the
fundamentals.. I
think that the
charts are way to
complacent… I think
that it is time to
get off the fence…
and see this stock
go up to here… that
is right… to me,
eBay is looking more
and more like a
classic turn around…
one where you have
to move sooner
rather than later…
because if you stay
on the fence… so if
you go on the fence
like the technicals,
you could miss a big
move… one where
Donahue is about to
make his mark on the
company… and you do
not want the
chartist to shake
you out… that is
what they are going
to do… I do not
trust Dan on this
one, well, I love
Dan, but he is not
giving me the right
signal.
I think that this is
a very different
eBay… and even if
the users may not be
happy with it, we
have data to show
that John Donahue
has done a
remarkable job
lately to reverse a
horrid situation
that he was handed…
he was handed this…
bear… he is turning
it into this… bull…
I do not have to
tell you that the
situation he
inherited is more
responsible for the
40% decline than
anything that
Donahue has done…
for example, we know
that the users were
not happy with the
shipping rates, so
the companies
incentives free
shipping… now 30% to
50% of listings are
shipped for free… up
from 30% earlier in
the year, low single
digits in 2008...
hey when you get
free shipping… that
results in higher
selling prices…
higher fees for
eBay.
We also know that
eBay has improved
its payment
protection for
buyers and sellers
using PayPal… on top
of that, eBay has
improved its search
algorithm to help
buyers find the
auctions and the fix
price items that
they are looking
for… apparently it
is much better… it
lowered its
insertion fees, the
fee that you pay to
list something on
eBay… to increase
the number in kind
of available items…
that is again is
very important… so I
think that Donahue
is trying to move
eBay away from just
an internet auction
house… to something
that is more like a
big discount
retailer… something
that is bound to
upset a lot of
users… but it makes
the company more
money… and that
really is what we
are about here.
▼ ▼
▼ ▼
▼
The Bottom Line!:
The users may not
like
eBay Inc. (EBAY)’s
new direction… the
charts may say that
the stock is going
nowhere… but the
fundamentals tell us
that eBay is turning
itself around… and I
think that it is
going much higher…
Donahue may not
deserve the
Congressional Medal
of Wealth Creation,
or even the
Distinguished
Service Cross of
Okay Stock
Performance… but he
certainly deserves a
combat medal… and,
so far, an honorable
non-discharge… I
believe that taking
on the Wall of Shame
for this man is
unwarranted… and
despite my pension
for the adhominan…
putting Donahue on
the Wall
would be a injustice
that I would rather
not commit… given
that the stock would
sink back to the
levels where the
technicians would
hate it… if the man
suddenly takes a
leave of absence, to
hang in the hood,
and take in a couple
of jintz, that is
the San Francisco
king, and Niner
games.
[verbatim recap]
[end of segment]
Read Jim's next Segment
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