Opening Segment #3:
'Off The Charts'
Tuesday, June 9, 2009
 

Jim's
rating on
this stock

STOCK
SYMBOL

Closing
price that
day

Full Company Name

EBAY

17.71

eBay Inc. (EBAY)


Jim:      Let me start off this particular segment by reading from one of the hundreds…I am not kidding, literally hundreds of nominations, write ins, draftees, that you have sent us to pin up on the most important Wall, now that the Berlin Wall has gone down… I am talking about the Wall of Shame.. this one goes

Viewer Email:     
Hey Jim,
Without a doubt John Donahoe, the CEO of
eBay Inc. (EBAY), should be on the Wall of Shame. Spend 15 minutes reading the discussion forums on just about any ecommerce oriented web site and you will see a very high level of dissatisfaction with eBay and Mr. Donahoe in particular.
Richard

Alright, this is a classic example of complaining users… they do not like the experience of using eBay… but that does not mean that the CEO is awful… and it does not mean that the stock is bad… see eBay the stock, unlike eBay the virtual auction house, is not a user experience story… it is a stock buyers turn around experience… what matters in a turn around is not making the experience as pleasant as possible… the stock is down 40% since Donahoe took over March 31, 2008... S&P 500 is down 28.8%… okay, that is pretty bad… while it is not the kind of loss that anyone would want to take… especially when competitor Amazon is up 22% in the same period… but Amazon is a unique situation...

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Market Results today:

Dow:  - 1

Nasdaq:  + 18

S&P 500:  + 3

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Tuesday, June 9, 2009

(Cont'd from above)...

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Jim:      I do not think that eBay’s performance is awful enough to merit giving Donahoe the ultimate business dishonor… his own likeness on the Wall of Shame… more important he has only been there a year… and the company that he inherited was falling apart… which thinks that I think that if Donahoe was to spend some time sharpening his golf game on the links on Pebble Beach… I think that the stock would actually go down… not up… so that is a true Wall of Shame disqualifier… how about the big money, what do they think… and the shareholders… would they stay, or would they go now… on that score, it is much more important to know what Wall Street thinks… especially the big institutional money managers, who do so much trading, and control so much stock… it is much more important than what the users think… that is why tonight we are going to go Off the Charts to see what we can learn about how the street views eBay… so you do not just take our word for keeping the man off of the Wall of Shame.

Even though I do not think that you should ever base your decisions on technical analysis, on looking at the charts… it is worth knowing what the chartists think… because they can look at the action and they find clues that help us understand how the big boys could treat a stock… what could we learn about eBay’s stock right now… alright, Dan Fitzpatrick, one of our go to technicians, Dan writes with me at
RealMoney.com, part of TheStreet.com where I am chairman… you might have seen him on Fast Money today, and that thing that they midday… he thinks that eBay’s chart is signaling that the stock will basically do nothing… that there is not a lot of institutional interest in here… see, he just thinks that it is kind of flat lining.

According to Fitzpatrick, eBay is consolidating… it is moving sideways after a big jump in April… the stock has had higher highs, and higher lows… both signs that they buyers are more interested… but they happened on declining volume… see when you look at the declining volume, that is kind of like a polygraph, the lower volume the less they believe that the action is telling the truth… Fitzpatrick’s is mildly positive on eBay… he does not see anything in the chart that the stock is about to go higher or lower… but if the stock falls below its 200 day moving average, a technical measure of a stocks long term trajectory, which is about $17 right now… he thinks that it could drop to $15.85... so that would be a bad, bad miss… I do not think that is going to happen.

Now, Fitzpatrick thinks, this is one of the things that he says, the move indicated a up trend or a down trend, a down trend would be about to begin if it broke down there… we may have gone off the charts… but the charts according to Fitzpatrick, they are on the fence… this is an actual on the fence chart… it does not tell you which way it is going to go… it says that it could move higher or lower.

So, now we have to resort to the fundamentals.. I think that the charts are way to complacent… I think that it is time to get off the fence… and see this stock go up to here… that is right… to me, eBay is looking more and more like a classic turn around… one where you have to move sooner rather than later… because if you stay on the fence… so if you go on the fence like the technicals, you could miss a big move… one where Donahue is about to make his mark on the company… and you do not want the chartist to shake you out… that is what they are going to do… I do not trust Dan on this one, well, I love Dan, but he is not giving me the right signal.

I think that this is a very different eBay… and even if the users may not be happy with it, we have data to show that John Donahue has done a remarkable job lately to reverse a horrid situation that he was handed… he was handed this… bear… he is turning it into this… bull… I do not have to tell you that the situation he inherited is more responsible for the 40% decline than anything that Donahue has done… for example, we know that the users were not happy with the shipping rates, so the companies incentives free shipping… now 30% to 50% of listings are shipped for free… up from 30% earlier in the year, low single digits in 2008... hey when you get free shipping… that results in higher selling prices… higher fees for eBay.

We also know that eBay has improved its payment protection for buyers and sellers using PayPal… on top of that, eBay has improved its search algorithm to help buyers find the auctions and the fix price items that they are looking for… apparently it is much better… it lowered its insertion fees, the fee that you pay to list something on eBay… to increase the number in kind of available items… that is again is very important… so I think that Donahue is trying to move eBay away from just an internet auction house… to something that is more like a big discount retailer… something that is bound to upset a lot of users… but it makes the company more money… and that really is what we are about here.
 

 

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The Bottom Line!:     The users may not like eBay Inc. (EBAY)’s new direction… the charts may say that the stock is going nowhere… but the fundamentals tell us that eBay is turning itself around… and I think that it is going much higher… Donahue may not deserve the Congressional Medal of Wealth Creation, or even the Distinguished Service Cross of Okay Stock Performance… but he certainly deserves a combat medal… and, so far, an honorable non-discharge… I believe that taking on the Wall of Shame for this man is unwarranted… and despite my pension for the adhominan… putting Donahue on the Wall would be a injustice that I would rather not commit… given that the stock would sink back to the levels where the technicians would hate it… if the man suddenly takes a leave of absence, to hang in the hood, and take in a couple of jintz, that is the San Francisco king, and Niner games.
 

 

[verbatim recap]

[end of segment]


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