Opening Segment #3:
'The Sell Block'
Thursday, June 11, 2009
 

Jim's
rating on
this stock

STOCK
SYMBOL

Closing
price that
day

Full Company Name

GIL

na

Gildan Activewear Inc. (GIL)


Jim:      Sometimes a company's customers matter a whole lot more than its products… I defy you to tell the difference between a blank t-shirt, well Hanes Brands… and here is one that is made by Gildan (GIL)… is there any real difference… look, maybe a pair of socks… do you think the socks are different… Hanesbrands Inc. (HBI) socks... Gildan… it does not matter… there is no differentiation between their products… they are a complete commodity… but one of these stocks belong in the sell block, and one of them does not… and you would never know which just by looking at the merchandise… two companies make products that are practically interchangeable… but you can never assume that that means the stocks are interchangeable… I do not particularly care for Hanes’ stock… because I do not like the apparel stocks… but how about Gildan… if I were you I would be aggressively selling Gildan stock right here...

Share

See comments continued below...     

 

Market Results today:

Dow:  + 32

Nasdaq:  + 9

S&P 500:  + 6

Previous Page

Next Page

See all of tonight's stocks mentioned
on Yahoo! Finance,
here...

 

Jim's Charitable Trust Alert -
Just happened:

   
* Just BOUGHT new bank stock:  Bank of America! *  
  see all Jim's latest holdings here> 

Thursday, June 11, 2009

(Cont'd from above)...

▼   ▼   ▼   ▼   ▼

Jim:      Distinguishing between the two companies could be very confusing if you do not know what you should be looking at… especially because both stocks are up about 192% from the markets bottom on March 8th… both of them… we just found out that retail sales in May were betters than expected… isn’t that a reason to like both Gildan and Hanes… I mean someone upgraded Jones Apparel, I like that as a nice retailer… shouldn’t we like an apparel maker off of the news… no, wrong… see Gildan may be an apparel maker… but that does not necessarily mean that it has got much of a connection to retail sales or retail in general… this company is not about the consumer.

Gildan gets about 75% of its sales from selling active wear… like t-shirts… but they sell it as blanks, that you can then have designs or logos printed on… like, obviously, unless I printed this, I would not be able to get it… when you look at its customers, it is not retailers who matter… 25% of this business is corporate… companies making their own branded t-shirts to make moral… hey, the beatings will continue until the moral improves… 20% comes from non-profits, another 20% comes from educational institutions, 15% is from sports teams, and then a teeny weenie 10% of this business is from retailers…a fraction of the retail base that Hanes has… which is why we think that Hanes is ultimately cheaper and safer going forward than Gildan.

With companies doing everything that they can to cost costs… I am the axe man, all work and no play makes Jack a very dull boy… anyway, I have trouble believing that this kind of corporate discretionary spending which is really being axed out, cut out, is on the rise… do you think that GM for instance, is going to shell out any money for branded t-shirts… how about beleaguered, sad Citigroup, do you think that they buying a lot of t-shirts there… even healthy companies are trying to slash costs, and that is deadly for Gildan.

One company, a company called Broders, a privately held distributor of blank clothing, caps and bas for promotion, that made up 23% of Gildan’s sales in 2008... was actually teetering on the edge of bankruptcy until mid May… when it was able to stave off Chapter 11 by refinancing about 95% of its debt… even though Broders is still running, it is not buying as much merchandise from Gildan… and in the larger scheme of things, the troubles of this one privately held company, I think, are systematic of the week market to the kind of promotional blank clothing… remember, this is blank clothing… that is Gildan’s bread and butter… this is a much, much worse business than retail.

 

▼   ▼   ▼   ▼   ▼

Anyway, Gildan’s end market alone would be enough reason to put this stock in the sell block and throw away the key… but they are not the only thing that I think is wrong with the company… it deserves at least a few months in solitary… Gildan is completely, vertically integrated… it manufacturers everything itself… that means it has what we call high, fixed costs… costs that it has to pay no matter how many shirts and socks that it sells… so when its revenues fall as they did in the most recent quarter, 16.7% year over year decline… it wrecks the companies gross margins, its profitability… that slide in revenue caused Gildan’s gross margins to fall from 28% to 15%… operating margins declined from 17% to 3.1%… and even though the demand for Gildan’s product is already much lower than its supply… the company is planning to expand facilities… 3 more factories.. on top of it… on top of the 10 that it already has… hey, Hanes outsources about a third of its manufacturing… I think that it is a huge leg up from Gildan in tough times.

Gildan has got very little fat to cut… there is not much that it can do to boost earnings while its sales stinks… and Gildan has nothing proprietary branded… remember, Gildan probably made the t-shirt that you bought at the Hannah Montana concert… and I say who cares… this company was not always so crummy… back between 2003 and 2006, Gildan was the perfect growth stock… the business model worked.. it was the low cost maker of promotional t-shirts and fleeces… beating out the competition by offering more attractive prices, and growing market share, at an impressive clip… but the blank t-shirt business has run out of room to grow… and now its main customers have strong incentives to save money by not buying what I regard as a totally unnecessary products.

Here is the bottom line…

▼   ▼   ▼   ▼   ▼

The Bottom Line!:     Gildan Activewear Inc. (GIL) is no Hanesbrands Inc. (HBI)… but it was up nicely up today… I would take this opportunity to sell it into strength… because even if companies stop cutting costs so aggressively and start buying t-shirts with their logos on it again… the growth story here, I think, has played out… and until those customers come back…I think that you have got to stay away from Gildan… like Cramer fave stock picker Shantell… Gildan has nothing but a t-shirt on… and I am saying right here… it is a sell, sell, sell.

 

[verbatim recap]

[end of segment]


Read Jim's next Segment here
 

▼   ▼   ▼   ▼   ▼

 

Share

Read Jim's next Segment here  
    

 

Previous Page

Next Page

See all of tonight's stocks mentioned, on Yahoo! Finance, here...

 

Search for Jim's past comments about a specific stock.  Use ticker symbol or company name in quotes (e.g., GOOG or "Google")
 
© 2005-2009  MadMoneyRecap.com    About Us    Important Disclaimers      

Feedback here.