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Opening Segment #3: |
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'The Sell Block'
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Thursday,
June 11, 2009 |
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Jim's
rating on
this stock |
STOCK
SYMBOL |
Closing
price that
day |
Full Company Name |
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GIL |
na |
Gildan Activewear Inc.
(GIL)
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Jim:
Sometimes a
company's customers
matter a whole lot
more than its
products… I defy you
to tell the
difference between a
blank t-shirt, well
Hanes Brands… and
here is one that is
made by
Gildan (GIL)…
is there any real
difference… look,
maybe a pair of
socks… do you think
the socks are
different…
Hanesbrands Inc. (HBI)
socks... Gildan… it
does not matter…
there is no
differentiation
between their
products… they are a
complete commodity…
but one of these
stocks belong in the
sell block, and one
of them does not…
and you would never
know which just by
looking at the
merchandise… two
companies make
products that are
practically
interchangeable… but
you can never assume
that that means the
stocks are
interchangeable… I
do not particularly
care for Hanes’
stock… because I do
not like the apparel
stocks… but how
about Gildan… if I
were you I would be
aggressively selling
Gildan stock right
here...
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See comments continued below...
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Thursday,
June 11, 2009
(Cont'd from
above)...
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Jim:
Distinguishing
between the two
companies could be
very confusing if
you do not know what
you should be
looking at…
especially because
both stocks are up
about 192% from the
markets bottom on
March 8th… both of
them… we just found
out that retail
sales in May were
betters than
expected… isn’t that
a reason to like
both Gildan and
Hanes… I mean
someone upgraded
Jones Apparel, I
like that as a nice
retailer… shouldn’t
we like an apparel
maker off of the
news… no, wrong… see
Gildan may be an
apparel maker… but
that does not
necessarily mean
that it has got much
of a connection to
retail sales or
retail in general…
this company is not
about the consumer.
Gildan gets about
75% of its sales
from selling active
wear… like t-shirts…
but they sell it as
blanks, that you can
then have designs or
logos printed on…
like, obviously,
unless I printed
this, I would not be
able to get it… when
you look at its
customers, it is not
retailers who
matter… 25% of this
business is
corporate… companies
making their own
branded t-shirts to
make moral… hey, the
beatings will
continue until the
moral improves… 20%
comes from
non-profits, another
20% comes from
educational
institutions, 15% is
from sports teams,
and then a teeny
weenie 10% of this
business is from
retailers…a fraction
of the retail base
that Hanes has…
which is why we
think that Hanes is
ultimately cheaper
and safer going
forward than Gildan.
With companies doing
everything that they
can to cost costs… I
am the axe man, all
work and no play
makes Jack a very
dull boy… anyway, I
have trouble
believing that this
kind of corporate
discretionary
spending which is
really being axed
out, cut out, is on
the rise… do you
think that GM for
instance, is going
to shell out any
money for branded
t-shirts… how about
beleaguered, sad
Citigroup, do you
think that they
buying a lot of
t-shirts there… even
healthy companies
are trying to slash
costs, and that is
deadly for Gildan.
One company, a
company called
Broders, a privately
held distributor of
blank clothing, caps
and bas for
promotion, that made
up 23% of Gildan’s
sales in 2008... was
actually teetering
on the edge of
bankruptcy until mid
May… when it was
able to stave off
Chapter 11 by
refinancing about
95% of its debt…
even though Broders
is still running, it
is not buying as
much merchandise
from Gildan… and in
the larger scheme of
things, the troubles
of this one
privately held
company, I think,
are systematic of
the week market to
the kind of
promotional blank
clothing… remember,
this is blank
clothing… that is
Gildan’s bread and
butter… this is a
much, much worse
business than
retail.
Anyway, Gildan’s end
market alone would
be enough reason to
put this stock in
the sell block and
throw away the key…
but they are not the
only thing that I
think is wrong with
the company… it
deserves at least a
few months in
solitary… Gildan is
completely,
vertically
integrated… it
manufacturers
everything itself…
that means it has
what we call high,
fixed costs… costs
that it has to pay
no matter how many
shirts and socks
that it sells… so
when its revenues
fall as they did in
the most recent
quarter, 16.7% year
over year decline…
it wrecks the
companies gross
margins, its
profitability… that
slide in revenue
caused Gildan’s
gross margins to
fall from 28% to
15%… operating
margins declined
from 17% to 3.1%…
and even though the
demand for Gildan’s
product is already
much lower than its
supply… the company
is planning to
expand facilities… 3
more factories.. on
top of it… on top of
the 10 that it
already has… hey,
Hanes outsources
about a third of its
manufacturing… I
think that it is a
huge leg up from
Gildan in tough
times.
Gildan has got very
little fat to cut…
there is not much
that it can do to
boost earnings while
its sales stinks…
and Gildan has
nothing proprietary
branded… remember,
Gildan probably made
the t-shirt that you
bought at the Hannah
Montana concert… and
I say who cares…
this company was not
always so crummy…
back between 2003
and 2006, Gildan was
the perfect growth
stock… the business
model worked.. it
was the low cost
maker of promotional
t-shirts and
fleeces… beating out
the competition by
offering more
attractive prices,
and growing market
share, at an
impressive clip… but
the blank t-shirt
business has run out
of room to grow… and
now its main
customers have
strong incentives to
save money by not
buying what I regard
as a totally
unnecessary
products.
Here is the bottom
line…
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The Bottom Line!:
Gildan Activewear Inc.
(GIL)
is no
Hanesbrands Inc. (HBI)…
but it was up nicely
up today… I would
take this
opportunity to sell
it into strength…
because even if
companies stop
cutting costs so
aggressively and
start buying
t-shirts with their
logos on it again…
the growth story
here, I think, has
played out… and
until those
customers come
back…I think that
you have got to stay
away from Gildan…
like Cramer fave
stock picker
Shantell… Gildan has
nothing but a
t-shirt on… and I am
saying right here…
it is a sell, sell,
sell.
[verbatim recap]
[end of segment]
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