Opening Segment #3:
'Technically Inclined'
Friday, June 12, 2009
 

Jim's
rating on
this stock

STOCK
SYMBOL

Closing
price that
day

Full Company Name

TQNT

5.79

TriQuint Semiconductor, Inc. (TQNT)


Jim:      As a seasoned hunter of bull markets, I can tell you that not all bulls are created equal... some are more equal than others...

Now, there are these small... let's call them, "run silent, run deep" bull markets... they're growing up. They're "baby bull" markets... maybe they're veal markets... and then there are the ultra-rare bull markets... that will happily give you the full "Pamplona" treatment if you try to stand in their way...

Now, you've probably heard me already talk about the mega-bull that's in tech right now... It's called a major secular growth trend... it's the gigantic new product cycle in technology that's based on mobile internet, led by the smartphones... You know these stocks, because I like them...
Apple (AAPL), Research In Motion (RIMM) and Palm (PALM)... all of which I think are long-term buys. I saw them coming in today and was tempted to pull the trigger...

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Market Results today:

Dow:  + 28

Nasdaq:  - 3

S&P 500:  + 1

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Friday, June 12, 2009

(Cont'd from above)...

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Jim:      When you find a bull that's this big, with a product cycle that will last for years, thanks to enormous demand thanks to the iPhone, as they go from a luxury or a fashion accessory, to something that most people in the developed world consider to be necessities, then stocks at just about all of the companies that are even loosely connected to the trend usually get pulled along for the ride...

In other words, you don't have to be an Apple or a RIM, or a Palm to do really well at this point...

I think you could buy some component makers that most people have never heard of, and still make out like a bandit...

I'm talking about names like
TriQuint Semiconductor, Inc. (TQNT)... Remember, it's "Speculation Friday"...

Never heard of TriQuint?... This $5 and change tech stock used to trade around $50 bucks in the heyday of the tech bubble. It's totally speculative, but I think it's worth owning. And, on this one, I want to thank my friend, Dave Pelletier, my colleague at
TheStreet.com where I'm chairman, who currently runs the "Stocks Under $10" newsletter and, I've got to tell you, he's making such a persuasive case for TriQuint... well, he's convinced me to get behind it.

You're not familiar with TriQuint, because it really hasn't done much to make itself known... It's a semiconductor company that makes really quiet components. You never look at it. It's not name brand. For phones and smartphones... it has some exposure to wireless networks, the other side of the mobile internet play... and it's got some military business. I haven't focused personally on TriQuint since back in the days of my old hedge fund, so it's thrilling to think the stock is having, if not breaking, a second wind here.

TriQuint's a special iPhone play... It makes three transmit modules in every
iPhone... That's a lot of iPhone real estate. That means, for every iPhone that Apple sells, TriQuint generates about $3-$4 of revenue... and just think about how many more iPhones will get sold, now that Apple is selling the iPhone 3G for just $99, right...

The company's also a play on China's $40 billion in wireless. China is spending $40 billion and, when they get done, they're going to be buying a lot of iPhones...

It has good relationships with the companies involved in China's 3G rollout... This is another big driver in tech.

While the iPhone and China exposure in tech are great, if you're going to buy this stock, you need to understand that TriQuint isn't... isn't... some special semi(conductor) play, with lots of proprietary technology and reams of patents... It's a lower-tier player that competes in mostly commoditized businesses... meaning basically that a transmit module or a power module made by TriQuint IS practically interchangeable with one made by another semi company... which means it does have loads of competition.

I'm trying to put the fear of... You know, I want you to be nervous here, because this is a spec. When you buy TriQuint, you're buying, at best, a third-tier company... a company that makes many parts for businesses... but none of its merchandise is anything to get excited about...

The stock is mainly a play on the overall strength of the entire smartphone market; you buy it because the market for the end product is so strong, that even commodity component makers like TriQuint are raking in a lot of money... simply because the demand works its way down the tech food chain.

This bull is so big... the product cycle is so gargantuan... that there's demand for everything, and I think customers will ultimately be willing to pay up, even for commodity semis.

 

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This company is nothing like QualComm Inc. (QCOM*), which you know I whipped into your head and beat you, to own... and is the largest position for AAP... I just finished my roundup (email) on it, and QualComm is still my favorite stock... it's the largest position for my trust... QualComm created the technology that's made a lot of this mobile internet possible. TriQuint is not a creator.

TriQuint is a stock though that is right in the smartest, best place to be... inside
the iPhone and other smartphones...

... Right place, right time. When it reported its 1st quarter results back in the end of April... an 11 cent loss, by the way... the Street was expecting the company to earn money... 2 cents... but it did raise its 2nd quarter guidance... because of increased demand and what's known as inventory restocking... and that's going to allow, I believe, TriQuint to grow its revenues at an 18-26% clip sequentially. And since the company has high fixed costs, I believe you're going to see a real big boost in margins. I think this company's going to be really profitable.

The company's got a pristine balance sheet while you're waiting... especially for a tech stock trading in the single digits. No debt, 65 cents per share in cash... Dave Pelltier gave me all this data that made me think I really ought to push it.

I think we are staring at the first stellar quarter in ages for TriQuint, and you've got to buy it here. It could be the first of many.

The bottom line...

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The Bottom Line!:     When you get a huge product cycle like the mobile internet cycle that's been driving up the Apple (AAPL)s and the Research In Motion (RIMM)s and the Palm (PALM)s today, I think it's strong enough to take up anything that's even remotely connected to the companies, like TriQuint Semiconductor, Inc. (TQNT), a solid way to speculate on smartphone demand and increased iPhone sales. Take it from this lifelong bowler... smartphones have "pin action"... So what if Triquint is the 7 pin, or maybe the 8... when you bowl a strike... they all go wild.

 

[verbatim recap]

[end of segment]


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